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A special telephone Morgan Poll over the last two nights (July 20/21, 2010) finds:

Prime Minister Julia Gillard is easily the preferred ALP Leader over former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd. Gillard is preferred as ALP Leader by 52% (up 26% since May 12/13, 2010) of electors ahead of Rudd (21%, down 13%). Other candidates, Treasurer and Deputy Prime Minister Wayne Swan (7%, down 1%), and Foreign Affairs Minister Stephen Smith (6%, unchanged) are the only contenders.

Amongst ALP voters Julia Gillard is far more strongly preferred with 68% (up 45%) of ALP voters preferring Gillard as ALP Leader ahead of Kevin Rudd (21%, down 40%). Of other contenders, only Wayne Swan (5%) has more than 3% support.

Former Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull (29%, unchanged) is once again preferred as Liberal Party Leader equally ahead of current Opposition Leader Tony Abbott (24%, down 3%) and Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey (24%, down 3%). All three candidates are well ahead of Deputy Opposition Leader Julie Bishop (8%, up 4%), Andrew Robb (2%, unchanged) and Christopher Pyne (2%, up 1%).

Amongst Liberal Party voters Tony Abbott (44%, up 2%) ahead of Joe Hockey (22%, down 10%) and Malcolm Turnbull (20%, up 1%). Abbott is also well ahead of Deputy Opposition Leader Julie Bishop (6%, up 2%).

If Prime Julia Gillard were to resign for any reason, former PM Kevin Rudd is clearly preferred as ALP Leader (37%). Wayne Swan (20%, up 6%) is the next best preferred leader of the ALP, from Stephen Smith (11%, up 4%) and Bill Shorten (7%, up 1%).

If Mr Abbott were to resign as Opposition Leader tomorrow, Mr Turnbull (36%, unchanged) and Joe Hockey (33%, down 4%) are clearly ahead of current Deputy Opposition Leader Julie Bishop (12%, up 3%).

Gary Morgan says:

“The special Morgan Poll conducted over the last two nights, July 20/21, 2010, shows Prime Minister Gillard (52%, up 26%) is clearly preferred to former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd (21%, down 13%) — a strong endorsement of the ALP’s decision to change leaders at the end of June.

“However, Opposition Leader Tony Abbott is yet (24%, down 3%) to win over a large number of electors and still trails deposed former Opposition Leader, and now backbencher, Malcolm Turnbull (29%, unchanged) as preferred Liberal Party Leader. Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey (24%, down 3%) is in fact equally preferred to Abbott. This lack of a clear endorsement from electors may be a problem for Abbott in trying to win over electors.”

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted on the evenings of July 20/21, 2010, with an Australia-wide cross section of 719 electors.

Preferred Labor Leader

Respondents were then asked: “If you were a Labor Party voter and helping to choose the Labor leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer?”

#Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

Preferred Labor Leader other than Julia Gillard

Respondents who preferred Julia Gillard as ALP Leader were then asked:

“Still thinking about helping choose the Labor leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer out of: Kevin Rudd, Wayne Swan, Stephen Smith, Bill Shorten, Jenny Macklin?”

The answers were added to those preferred for Labor Leader from the previous question to show preferred leaders other than Julia Gillard.

#Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution. *Less than 0.5%.

* Between October 2009 and May 2010 Kevin Rudd was not included in this question as he was the Prime Minister.

** In late June Lindsay Tanner announced he had no intention of contesting the upcoming Federal Election.

Preferred Coalition Leader

Respondents were asked: “If you were a Liberal or National Party voter and helping to choose the Coalition leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer?”

#Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

Preferred Coalition Leader other than Tony Abbott

Respondents who preferred Tony Abbott were then asked:

“Still thinking about helping choose the Coalition leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer out of: Malcolm Turnbull, Julie Bishop, Joe Hockey, Andrew Robb & Christopher Pyne?”

The answers were added to those preferred Coalition Leader from the previous question to show preferred leaders other than Tony Abbott.

#Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution; na = not applicable; *Less than 0.5%.

**Between September 2008 and December 2009 Malcolm Turnbull was not included in this question as he was the then Opposition Leader.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:      Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:   Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No Other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.

© 2012 Roy Morgan Research. All Rights Reserved
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