ALP 55.5% enjoys strong lead over L-NP 44.5%
Gillard Government with large Federal Election winning lead
| Finding No. 4540 -
This Face-to-Face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted on the weekend of July 17/18, 2010, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 871 electors. Of all electors surveyed, a low 4.5% did not name a party. This telephone Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the nights of July 20/21, 2010 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 719 electors. Of all electors surveyed, a low 4.5% did not name a party.:
July 23, 2010 |
The latest telephone Morgan Poll conducted during the first week of the Federal Election campaign finds Two-Party preferred support for the ALP is 55.5% cf. L-NP 44.5%. Since Prime Minister Julia Gillard called the Federal Election the Morgan Poll has conducted two Federal voting intention polls. The Face-to-Face Morgan Poll conducted last weekend — the weekend the election was called (July 17/18, 2010) showed the ALP clearly ahead on a Two-Party preferred basis — ALP (56%) cf. L-NP (44%). If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would win easily.
This week’s telephone Morgan Poll (conducted on the nights of July 20/21, 2010) shows the ALP primary vote is 44%, ahead of the L-NP 38.5%, the Greens at 11.5%, Family First 2% and Independents/ Others 4%.
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is now at 122, with 54.5% of Australians confident that Australia is ‘heading in the right direction,’ compared to 32.5% that say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction.’
The latest weekly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for the weekend of July 17/18, 2010 fell slightly, down 2.9pts to 123.0.
Gary Morgan says:
“The Gillard Government (55.5%) still enjoys a strong Two-Party preferred lead over the L-NP (44.5%) in the first week of official campaigning for the Federal Election set for Saturday August 21, 2010.
“Despite continued discussion about how she got the job, a special telephone Morgan Poll conducted this week showed Julia Gillard (52%) is clearly preferred ALP Leader over Kevin Rudd (21%). Importantly, electors clearly prefer Gillard (58%) to Opposition Leader Tony Abbott (29%) as ‘Better PM.’
“The question of whether Opposition Leader Tony Abbott plans to bring back the Howard Government’s ‘WorkChoices’ industrial relations legislation if elected has been the subject of negative ALP campaigning over the past two weeks and may have contributed to the slide in the L-NP primary vote during this period to 38.5% - down 2.5% from July 10/11, 2010 and also down 1% since last weekend — July 17/18, 2010.
“Additionally, today’s results and those of a special telephone Morgan Poll on asylum seekers and immigration released yesterday, show that while a clear majority of Australians (64%) want ‘boat people’ returned and told to apply through normal refugee channels, the fall in the L-NP vote during the past two weeks indicate it is not a clear vote-winner for the Coalition.”
Electors were asked: “If a Federal Election for the House of Representatives were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?”
This Face-to-Face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted on the weekend of July 17/18, 2010, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 871 electors. Of all electors surveyed, a low 4.5% did not name a party.
This telephone Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the nights of July 20/21, 2010 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 719 electors. Of all electors surveyed, a low 4.5% did not name a party.
For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094
Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093
During the period:
- Leaders gear up for tough, close Federal Election campaign
Australia's political leaders have foreshadowed a tough, hard-fought and close political contest as they prepare to face voters at the polls on August 21, 2010.
- Prime Minister Gillard announces school uniform rebate
Prime Minister Julia Gillard has announced plans to allow parents to claim to recover part of the cost of school uniforms.
- Coalition to announce Industrial Relations policy soon
Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey says the Coalition will not be going back to the days of WorkChoices when it reveals its new industrial relations policy "in the not too distant future"
- Greens slam detention centre funding boost
Bob Brown’s Greens have slammed the Federal Government allocation of an extra $100 million to expand detention centres for asylum seekers.
- Climate policy won't affect power prices: Tony Abbott
Federal Opposition Leader Tony Abbott says he can guarantee electricity prices will not rise as a result of the Coalition's climate change plan.
- Foreign Minister Stephen Smith backs asylum plan
The Federal Government is standing strong behind its proposal for a refugee processing centre in East Timor, despite the East Timorese parliament rejecting the idea.
- New iron ore product demand rising: analyst
A resource analyst says there is demand for emerging iron ore products from Australia if prices remain firm.
- Fallen soldier's body arrives home
The body of Private Nathan Bewes, who was killed in Afghanistan last week, has arrived at the Amberley air base - west of Brisbane.
- BP stops oil gushing in the Gulf of Mexico as test starts
BP engineers stopped oil flowing into the Gulf of Mexico for the first time since April as they shut all valves on a new cap placed on top of a fractured wellhead, a BP official said this morning.
- Christine Nixon quits as bushfire recovery chief
The embattled head of the Victorian Bushfire Reconstruction and Recovery Authority, Christine Nixon, is stepping down from her position as chairwoman.
- Spain reigns supreme to win World Cup
Spain has ended its long wait for a maiden World Cup title, defeating the Netherlands 1-0 after the final went to extra time at Soccer City in Johannesburg.
FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)
| |
|
|
The |
Family |
Ind./ |
| |
ALP |
L-NP |
Greens |
First#* |
Others |
|
RECENT ELECTION RESULTS |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Election March 2, 1996 |
38.8 |
47.3 (8.6) |
1.7 |
0 |
12.2 |
|
Election October 3^, 1998 |
40.1 |
39.5 (5.3) |
2.1 |
0 |
18.3 |
|
Election November 10, 2001 |
37.8 |
43 (5.6) |
4.4 |
0 |
13.8 |
|
Election October 9, 2004 |
37.6 |
46.4 (5.9) |
7.2 |
2.0 |
6.8 |
|
Election November 24, 2007 |
43.4 |
42.1 (5.9) |
7.8 |
2.0 |
4.7 |
|
MORGAN POLL |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dec 5/6, 2007 (Phone) |
49 |
36.5 (3.5) |
7 |
1.5 |
6 |
|
Dec 1/2 & 8/9, 2007 (Face : Face) |
49.5 |
34 (2.5) |
10.5 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
|
Jan 5/6 & 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
33 (2.5) |
8 |
2 |
5.5 |
|
Jan 23/24, 2008 (Phone) |
53 |
32 (2) |
10 |
1 |
4 |
|
Jan 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face) |
49 |
36 (3) |
8.5 |
1.5 |
5 |
|
Jan 30/31, 2008 (Phone) |
50 |
34.5 (3) |
8 |
1 |
6.5 |
|
Feb 2/3 & 9/10, 2008 (Face : Face) |
54 |
33 (3) |
7.5 |
1.5 |
4 |
|
Feb 16/17 & 23/24, 2008 (Face : Face) |
56.5 |
31.5 (3) |
6.5 |
1.5 |
4 |
|
Mar 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face) |
55.5 |
30.5 (2.5) |
9 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
|
Mar 11/12, 2008 (Phone) |
53.5 |
34 (2.5) |
5.5 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
|
Mar 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face) |
55 |
31 (2) |
7 |
3 |
4 |
|
Mar 26/27 & Apr 2/3, 2008 (Phone) |
51 |
34 (2) |
7.5 |
2 |
5.5 |
|
Apr 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face) |
53.5 |
33.5 (2) |
7.5 |
1.5 |
4 |
|
Apr 9/10, 2008 (Phone) |
54 |
32 (3) |
8.5 |
1 |
4.5 |
|
Apr 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
54 |
33.5 (4.5) |
6.5 |
1 |
5 |
|
Apr 16/17, 2008 (Phone) |
55 |
33 (2.5) |
6 |
1 |
5 |
|
Apr 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face) |
54.5 |
33.5 (3.5) |
5.5 |
2.5 |
4 |
|
May 3/4, 2008(Face : Face) |
52.5 |
32.5 (2) |
8 |
2 |
5 |
|
May 7-11, 2008(Phone) |
47 |
37 (2.5) |
9 |
1 |
6 |
|
May 17/18, 2008 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
35 (2.5) |
8.5 |
1 |
4 |
|
May 24/25, 2008 (Face : Face) |
53 |
34 (3) |
5.5 |
2.5 |
5 |
|
May 31 - June 1, 2008 (Face : Face) |
52.5 |
31.5 (2.5) |
9 |
2 |
5 |
|
June 4-9, 2008 (Phone) |
45.5 |
38.5 (2) |
8.5 |
1.5 |
6 |
|
June 7/8, 2008 (Face : Face) |
48.5 |
36 (3) |
8.5 |
2 |
5 |
|
June 14/15 & 21/22, 2008 (Face : Face) |
52 |
34 (2) |
8 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
|
June 28/29 & July 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face) |
48.5 |
35 (2.5) |
8 |
2.5 |
6 |
|
July 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
48 |
34.5 (2.5) |
11.5 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
|
July 19/20, 2008 (Face : Face) |
45.5 |
39.5 (2) |
7.5 |
2 |
5.5 |
|
July 26/27 & August 2/3, 2008 (Face : Face) |
45.5 |
39.5 (2.5) |
8 |
1.5 |
6 |
|
August 9/10 & 16/17, 2008 (Face : Face) |
47 |
37.5 (4) |
8.5 |
2 |
5 |
|
August 23/24 & 30/31, 2008 (Face : Face) |
50 |
37 (3) |
6.5 |
2 |
4.5 |
|
September 6/7 & 13/14, 2008 (Face : Face) |
45 |
38 (3.5) |
8 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
| |
|
Malcolm Turnbull replaces Brendan Nelson as Leader of Opposition on September 15, 2008 |
| |
|
September 24/25, 2008 (Phone) |
46.5 |
38.5 (3) |
8 |
2.5 |
4.5 |
|
September 20/21 & 27/28, 2008 (Face : Face) |
46.5 |
36.5 (3.5) |
10 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
|
October 8/9, 2008 (Phone) |
46.5 |
36 (2) |
9.5 |
3 |
5 |
|
October 4/5 & 11/12, 2008 (Face : Face) |
46 |
36 (2.5) |
9.5 |
2.5 |
6 |
|
October 15/16, 2008 (Phone) |
48 |
38 (2) |
8 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
|
October 18/19 & 25/26, 2008 (Face : Face) |
46.5 |
37.5 (2.5) |
8.5 |
2 |
5.5 |
|
November 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face) |
49 |
36 (3) |
8.5 |
2 |
4.5 |
|
November 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face) |
50.5 |
35.5 (2) |
7.5 |
2 |
4.5 |
|
November 29/30 & December 6/7, 2008 (Face : Face) |
48.5 |
34.5 (2.5) |
10.5 |
1.5 |
5 |
|
December 13/14 & 20/21, 2008 (Face : Face) |
52.5 |
35.5 (3) |
6 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
|
January 3/4 & 10/11, 2009 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
35 (4) |
8 |
1.5 |
4 |
|
January 17/18 & 24/25, 2009 (Face : Face) |
50.5 |
36 (2) |
7.5 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
|
January 31 & February 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
46.5 |
38 (4) |
8 |
2.5 |
5 |
|
February 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
35.5 (3.5) |
8 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
|
February 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
49 |
36.5 (3.5) |
7.5 |
1 |
6 |
|
February 21/22 & 28/ March 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
33 (2.5) |
8.5 |
2.5 |
4.5 |
|
March 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
50.5 |
34.5 (3) |
8 |
2 |
5 |
|
March 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
48.5 |
39 (3) |
6 |
1.5 |
5 |
|
March 21/22 & 28/29, 2009 (Face : Face) |
53 |
33.5 (3) |
8 |
1.5 |
4 |
|
April 4/5 & 11/12, 2009 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
33.5 (2.5) |
8 |
2 |
5 |
|
April 18/19 & 25/26, 2009 (Face : Face) |
50 |
36.5 (2) |
8.5 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
|
May 2/3 & 9/10, 2009 (Face : Face) |
50 |
34 (2) |
9 |
2.5 |
4.5 |
|
May 16/17, 2009 (Face : Face) |
49.5 |
37.5 (1.5) |
8 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
|
May 20/21, 2009 (Phone) |
45 |
40.5 (4) |
7.5 |
1 |
6 |
|
May 23/24 & 30/31, 2009 (Face : Face) |
49 |
36 (2.5) |
8 |
2 |
5 |
|
June 3/4, 2009 (Phone) |
43.5 |
39.5 (3.5) |
9 |
2.5 |
5.5 |
|
June 10/11, 2009 (Phone) |
47 |
37 (2.5) |
8.5 |
2.5 |
5 |
|
June 6/7 & 13/14, 2009 (Face : Face) |
48.5 |
38 (3) |
7 |
2.5 |
4 |
|
June 20/21, 2009 (Face : Face) |
46 |
41 (3.5) |
8.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
|
July 1/2, 2009 (Phone) |
46 |
39 (2.5) |
8 |
1 |
6 |
|
June 27/28 & July 4/5, 2009 (Face : Face) |
46.5 |
35 (3) |
11.5 |
2.5 |
4.5 |
|
July 11/12 & 18/19, 2009 (Face : Face) |
48 |
37.5 (3) |
8 |
2 |
4.5 |
|
July 25/26 & August 1/2, 2009 (Face : Face) |
50.5 |
34 (2.5) |
8.5 |
2 |
5 |
|
August 5/6, 2009 (Phone) |
45.5 |
37.5 (3) |
11 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
|
August 8/9 & 15/16, 2009 (Face : Face) |
47.5 |
34.5 (3) |
9.5 |
2.5 |
6 |
|
August 22/23 & 29/30, 2009 (Face : Face) |
50.5 |
33.5 (3.5) |
9.5 |
2 |
4.5 |
|
September 5/6 & 12/13, 2009 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
32.5 (3.5) |
9.5 |
2 |
4.5 |
|
September 19/20 & 26/27, 2009 (Face : Face) |
51 |
35.5 (2.5) |
7.5 |
2 |
4 |
|
October 7/8, 2009 (Phone) |
46.5 |
37 (4.5) |
10.5 |
1 |
5 |
|
October 3/4 & 10/11, 2009 (Face : Face) |
49.5 |
34 (2.5) |
9 |
2.5 |
5 |
|
October 17/18 & 24/25, 2009 (Face : Face) |
52 |
34.5 (3) |
7.5 |
2 |
4 |
|
October 31 & November 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
51 |
32.5 (2.5) |
9.5 |
2 |
5 |
|
November 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
46.5 |
38.5 (3) |
8 |
2 |
5 |
|
November 11/12, 2009 (Phone) |
42.5 |
41.5 (4) |
8 |
1 |
7 |
|
November 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
45 |
36.5 (4) |
9 |
3 |
6.5 |
|
November 21/22, 2009 (Face : Face) |
48 |
35.5 (2) |
9 |
1.5 |
6 |
|
November 28/29, 2009 (Face : Face) |
47 |
35 (3.5) |
9.5 |
3 |
5.5 |
| |
|
Tony Abbott replaces Malcolm Turnbull as Leader of Opposition on December 1, 2009 |
| |
|
December 2/3, 2009 (Phone) |
41 |
43 (3.5) |
10.5 |
1.5 |
4 |
|
December 4-9, 2009 (Phone) |
42 |
41.5 (2) |
9.5 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
|
December 5/6 & 12/13, 2009 (Face : Face) |
49 |
35.5 (2) |
8 |
1.5 |
6 |
|
December 19/20, 2009 & January 2/3, 2010 (Face : Face) |
45.5 |
37 (2.5) |
10 |
2 |
5.5 |
|
January 13/14, 2010 (Phone) |
43 |
39 (3) |
9.5 |
1.5 |
7 |
|
January 9/10 & 16/17, 2010 (Face : Face) |
47.5 |
35.5 (3.5) |
10 |
2 |
5 |
|
January 23/24 & 30/31, 2010 (Face : Face) |
46 |
38 (3) |
8.5 |
1.5 |
6 |
|
February 10/11, 2010 (Phone) |
42 |
41 (4.5) |
10.5 |
1 |
5.5 |
|
February 6/7 & 13/14, 2010 (Face : Face) |
47 |
37 (2.5) |
9 |
2 |
5 |
|
February 20/21, 2010 (Face : Face) |
45 |
37.5 (3) |
9 |
2.5 |
6 |
|
February 27/28 & March 6/7, 2010 (Face : Face) |
45 |
38.5 (2.5) |
8.5 |
2 |
6 |
|
March 13/14 & 20/21, 2010 (Face : Face) |
44.5 |
37 (2) |
11 |
2 |
5.5 |
|
March 27/28 & April 3/4, 2010 (Face : Face) |
48 |
36.5 (2) |
8.5 |
2.5 |
4.5 |
|
April 10/11 & 17/18, 2010 (Face : Face) |
43 |
37.5 (3) |
12 |
2 |
5.5 |
|
April 24/25, 2010 (Face : Face) |
44 |
40.5 (3.5) |
8 |
2.5 |
5 |
|
May 1/2, 2010 (Face : Face) |
43.5 |
40 (3) |
9 |
2.5 |
5 |
|
May 4/5, 2010 (Phone) |
39.5 |
44.5 (2.5) |
9 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
|
May 8/9, 2010 (Face : Face) |
41 |
42.5 (3.5) |
9 |
2.5 |
5 |
|
May 12/13, 2010 (Phone) |
36 |
46 (2.5) |
11.5 |
2 |
4.5 |
|
May 15/16, 2010 (Face : Face) |
37.5 |
43 (3) |
12 |
1.5 |
6 |
|
May 22/23, 2010 (Face : Face) |
42.5 |
41 (2) |
11 |
2 |
3.5 |
|
May 26/27, 2010 (Phone) |
37.5 |
43 (3) |
11.5 |
1.5 |
6.5 |
|
May 29/30, 2010 (Face : Face) |
42 |
41 (2.5) |
8.5 |
1.5 |
7 |
|
June 5/6, 2010 (Face : Face) |
40 |
41.5 (2) |
11 |
2.5 |
2 |
|
June 12/13, 2010 (Face : Face) |
38 |
41 (1.5) |
13 |
1.5 |
6.5 |
|
June 19/20, 2010 (Face : Face) |
41 |
41 (2.5) |
12.5 |
1.5 |
4 |
| |
|
Julia Gillard replaces Kevin Rudd as Australian Prime Minister on June 24, 2010 |
| |
|
June 25-28, 2010 (Phone) |
38.5 |
45.5 (4.5) |
9 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
|
June 26/27 & July 3/4, 2010 (Face : Face) |
45.5 |
38 (2) |
10.5 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
|
July 10/11, 2010 (Face : Face) |
40.5 |
41 (3.5) |
12 |
1.5 |
5 |
|
July 17/18, 2010 (Face : Face) |
44.5 |
39.5 (4.5) |
10.5 |
1.5 |
4 |
|
July 20/21, 2010 (Phone) |
44 |
38.5 (3) |
11.5 |
2 |
4 |
Note: National Party results are in brackets. # Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.
^ 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.
* The Family First Party were included as an option on Federal Voting Intention from October 30, 2004.
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)
| |
ALP |
L-NP |
|
|
| |
% |
% |
|
|
|
Election March 2, 1996 |
46.4 |
53.6 |
|
|
|
Election October 3^, 1998 |
51 |
49 |
|
|
|
Election November 10, 2001 |
49 |
51 |
|
|
|
Election October 9, 2004 |
47.3 |
52.7 |
|
|
|
Election November 24, 2007 |
52.7 |
47.3 |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Preferences distributed
by how electors voted
at the 2007 election |
Preferences distributed
by how electors
say they will vote |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
| MORGAN POLL |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
|
Dec 5/6, 2007 (Phone) |
58.5 |
41.5 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
|
Dec 1/2 & 8/9, 2007 (Face : Face) |
60.5 |
39.5 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
|
Jan 5/6 & 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
38.5 |
62 |
38 |
|
Jan 23/24, 2008 (Phone) |
63 |
37 |
63 |
37 |
|
Jan 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face) |
59 |
41 |
60 |
40 |
|
Jan 30/31, 2008 (Phone) |
60 |
40 |
60 |
40 |
|
Feb 2/3 & 9/10, 2008 (Face : Face) |
62.5 |
37.5 |
63 |
37 |
|
Feb 16/17 & 23/24, 2008 (Face : Face) |
64.5 |
35.5 |
64.5 |
35.5 |
|
Mar 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face) |
65 |
35 |
65.5 |
34.5 |
|
Mar 11/12, 2008 (Phone) |
61 |
39 |
62 |
38 |
|
Mar 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face) |
63.5 |
36.5 |
63.5 |
36.5 |
|
Mar 26/27 & Apr 2/3, 2008 (Phone) |
60.5 |
39.5 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
|
Apr 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face) |
62 |
38 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
|
Apr 9/10, 2008 (Phone) |
63.5 |
36.5 |
64.5 |
35.5 |
|
Apr 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
62 |
38 |
62.5 |
37.5 |
|
Apr 16/17, 2008 (Phone) |
62.5 |
37.5 |
64 |
36 |
|
Apr 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
38.5 |
62.5 |
37.5 |
|
May 3/4, 2008(Face : Face) |
62 |
38 |
64 |
36 |
|
May 7-11, 2008 (Phone) |
58 |
42 |
58 |
42 |
|
May 17/18, 2008 (Face : Face) |
60.5 |
39.5 |
61 |
39 |
|
May 24/25, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61 |
39 |
62 |
38 |
|
May 31 - June 1, 2008 (Face : Face) |
63 |
37 |
63.5 |
36.5 |
|
June 4-9, 2008 (Phone) |
56 |
44 |
56 |
44 |
|
June 7/8, 2008 (Face : Face) |
58.5 |
41.5 |
59 |
41 |
|
June 14/15 & 21/22, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61 |
39 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
|
June 28/29 & July 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face) |
59 |
41 |
59 |
41 |
|
July 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
60 |
40 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
|
July 19/20, 2008 (Face : Face) |
55 |
45 |
55 |
45 |
|
July 26/27 & August 2/3, 2008 (Face : Face) |
55 |
45 |
54.5 |
45.5 |
|
August 9/10 & 16/17, 2008 (Face : Face) |
57 |
43 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
August 23/24 & 30/31, 2008 (Face : Face) |
58 |
42 |
59 |
41 |
|
September 6/7 & 13/14, 2008 (Face : Face) |
55.5 |
44.5 |
56 |
44 |
|
Malcolm Turnbull replaces Brendan Nelson as Leader of the Opposition on September 15, 2008 |
|
September 24/25, 2008 (Phone) |
56 |
44 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
September 20/21 & 27/28, 2008 (Face : Face) |
57.5 |
42.5 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
|
October 8/9, 2008 (Phone) |
57.5 |
42.5 |
56.5 |
43.5 |
|
October 4/5 & 11/12, 2008 (Face : Face) |
57.5 |
42.5 |
58 |
42 |
|
October 15/16, 2008 (Phone) |
57.5 |
42.5 |
58 |
42 |
|
October 18/19 & 25/26, 2008 (Face : Face) |
56.5 |
43.5 |
57 |
43 |
|
November 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face) |
58.5 |
41.5 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
|
November 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face) |
59.5 |
40.5 |
60.5 |
39.5 |
|
November 29/30 & December 6/7, 2008 (Face : Face) |
59.5 |
40.5 |
60.5 |
39.5 |
|
December 13/14 & 20/21, 2008 (Face : Face) |
60 |
40 |
61 |
39 |
|
January 3/4 & 10/11, 2009 (Face : Face) |
60 |
40 |
61 |
39 |
|
January 17/18 & 24/25, 2009 (Face : Face) |
59.5 |
40.5 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
|
January 31 & February 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
56 |
44 |
55.5 |
44.5 |
|
February 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
60 |
40 |
62 |
38 |
|
February 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
59.5 |
40.5 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
|
February 21/22 & 28/ March 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
38.5 |
62 |
38 |
|
March 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
60.5 |
39.5 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
|
March 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
57 |
43 |
56.5 |
43.5 |
|
March 21/22 & 28/29, 2009 (Face : Face) |
61 |
39 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
|
April 4/5 & 11/12, 2009 (Face : Face) |
61 |
39 |
62 |
38 |
|
April 18/19 & 25/26, 2009 (Face : Face) |
59 |
41 |
60 |
40 |
|
May 2/3 & 9/10, 2009 (Face : Face) |
60 |
40 |
60 |
40 |
|
May 16/17, 2009 (Face : Face) |
58 |
42 |
58 |
42 |
|
May 20/21, 2009 (Phone) |
54.5 |
45.5 |
55.5 |
44.5 |
|
May 23/24 & 30/31, 2009 (Face : Face) |
58 |
42 |
59 |
41 |
|
June 3/4, 2009 (Phone) |
54.5 |
45.5 |
55 |
45 |
|
June 10/11, 2009 (Phone) |
57.5 |
42.5 |
58 |
42 |
|
June 6/7 & 13/14, 2009 (Face : Face) |
57 |
43 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
June 20/21, 2009 (Face : Face) |
55 |
45 |
54.5 |
45.5 |
|
July 1/2, 2009 (Phone) |
56 |
44 |
56.5 |
43.5 |
|
June 27/28 & July 4/5, 2009 (Face : Face) |
58 |
42 |
59 |
41 |
|
July 11/12 & 18/19, 2009 (Face : Face) |
57.5 |
42.5 |
57 |
43 |
|
July 25/26 & August 1/2, 2009 (Face : Face) |
60.5 |
39.5 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
|
August 5/6, 2009 (Phone) |
57 |
43 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
August 8/9 & 15/16, 2009 (Face : Face) |
58 |
42 |
59 |
41 |
|
August 22/23 & 29/30, 2009 (Face : Face) |
61 |
39 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
|
September 5/6 & 12/13, 2009 (Face : Face) |
62 |
38 |
63 |
37 |
|
September 19/20 & 26/27, 2009 (Face : Face) |
59.5 |
40.5 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
|
October 7/8, 2009 (Phone) |
58 |
42 |
58 |
42 |
|
October 3/4 & 10/11, 2009 (Face : Face) |
60 |
40 |
61 |
39 |
|
October 17/18 & 24/25, 2009 (Face : Face) |
60.5 |
39.5 |
61 |
39 |
|
October 31 & November 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
61 |
39 |
61 |
39 |
|
November 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
56 |
44 |
55 |
45 |
|
November 11/12, 2009 (Phone) |
52 |
48 |
52 |
48 |
|
November 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
56.5 |
43.5 |
57 |
43 |
|
November 21/22, 2009 (Face : Face) |
58.5 |
41.5 |
58 |
42 |
|
November 28/29, 2009 (Face : Face) |
58.5 |
41.5 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
|
Tony Abbott replaces Malcolm Turnbull as Leader of the Opposition on December 1, 2009 |
|
December 2/3, 2009 (Phone) |
53 |
47 |
53 |
47 |
|
December 4-9, 2009 (Phone) |
55.5 |
44.5 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
|
December 5/6 & 12/13, 2009 (Face : Face) |
59 |
41 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
|
December 19/20, 2009 & January 2/3, 2010 (Face : Face) |
57 |
43 |
57 |
43 |
|
January 13/14, 2010 (Phone) |
54.5 |
45.5 |
56 |
44 |
|
January 9/10 & 16/17, 2010 (Face : Face) |
58.5 |
41.5 |
60 |
40 |
|
January 23/24 & 30/31, 2010 (Face : Face) |
56.5 |
43.5 |
56.5 |
43.5 |
|
February 10/11, 2010 (Phone) |
53.5 |
46.5 |
53 |
47 |
|
February 6/7 & 13/14, 2010 (Face : Face) |
57.5 |
42.5 |
58 |
42 |
|
February 20/21, 2010 (Face : Face) |
56.5 |
43.5 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
February 27/28 & March 6/7, 2010 (Face : Face) |
55.5 |
44.5 |
56 |
44 |
|
March 13/14 & 20/21, 2010 (Face : Face) |
56.5 |
43.5 |
57 |
43 |
|
March 27/28 & April 3/4, 2010 (Face : Face) |
58 |
42 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
April 10/11 & 17/18, 2010 (Face : Face) |
56 |
44 |
56.5 |
43.5 |
|
April 24/25, 2010 (Face : Face) |
54.5 |
45.5 |
55 |
45 |
|
May 1/2, 2010 (Face : Face) |
54 |
46 |
55 |
45 |
|
May 4/5, 2010 (Phone) |
50 |
50 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
|
May 8/9, 2010 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
48.5 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
|
May 12/13, 2010 (Phone) |
48 |
52 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
|
May 15/16, 2010 (Face : Face) |
50.5 |
49.5 |
50 |
50 |
|
May 22/23, 2010 (Face : Face) |
54.5 |
45.5 |
55 |
45 |
|
May 26/27, 2010 (Phone) |
50 |
50 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
|
May 29/30, 2010 (Face : Face) |
52.5 |
47.5 |
52 |
48 |
|
June 5/6, 2010 (Face : Face) |
52 |
48 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
|
June 12/13, 2010 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
|
June 19/20, 2010 (Face : Face) |
53 |
47 |
53 |
47 |
|
Julia Gillard replaces Kevin Rudd as Australian Prime Minister on June 24, 2010 |
|
June 25-28, 2010 (Phone) |
48.5 |
51.5 |
49 |
51 |
|
June 26/27 & July 3/4, 2010 (Face : Face)* |
56.5 |
43.5 |
55 |
45 |
|
July 10/11, 2010 (Face : Face) |
53.5 |
46.5 |
54.5 |
45.5 |
|
July 17/18, 2010 (Face : Face) |
55 |
45 |
56 |
44 |
|
July 20/21, 2010 (Phone) |
55.5 |
44.5 |
55.5 |
44.5 |
^ 1998 Federal Election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.
*Julia Gillard’s rise to become the new Prime Minister necessitates a change in the reported two-party preferred figures to reflect how electors say they will vote.
THINK WILL WIN
Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal Election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"
|
Think Will Win |
ALP |
L-NP |
Can't Say |
| |
% |
% |
% |
|
Dec 5/6, 2007 (Phone) |
58 |
14.5 |
27.5 |
|
Dec 1/2 & 8/9, 2007 (Face : Face) |
61 |
17 |
22 |
|
Jan 5/6 & 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
65 |
15 |
20 |
|
Jan 23/24, 2008 (Phone) |
65 |
10.5 |
24.5 |
|
Jan 19/20& 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face) |
64 |
16 |
20 |
|
Jan 30/31, 2008 (Phone) |
65.5 |
9 |
25.5 |
|
Feb 2/3 & 9/10, 2008 (Face : Face) |
65.5 |
17 |
17.5 |
|
Feb 16/17 & 23/24, 2008 (Face : Face) |
69.5 |
15 |
15.5 |
|
Mar 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face) |
70.5 |
14 |
15.5 |
|
Mar 11/12, 2008 (Phone) |
71 |
13 |
16 |
|
Mar 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face) |
70.5 |
14.5 |
15 |
|
Mar 26/27 & Apr 2/3, 2008 (Phone) |
71.5 |
12.5 |
16 |
|
Apr 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face) |
71.5 |
15 |
13.5 |
|
Apr 9/10, 2008 (Phone) |
75 |
10 |
15 |
|
Apr 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
72 |
15.5 |
12.5 |
|
Apr 16/17, 2008 (Phone) |
73 |
12 |
15 |
|
Apr 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face) |
72.5 |
15.5 |
12 |
|
May 3/4, 2008(Face : Face) |
72.5 |
14 |
13.5 |
|
May 7-11, 2008(Phone) |
70.5 |
11.5 |
18 |
|
May 17/18, 2008 (Face : Face) |
69.5 |
17 |
13.5 |
|
May 24/25, 2008 (Face : Face) |
68 |
15.5 |
16.5 |
|
May 31 - June 1, 2008 (Face : Face) |
63.5 |
20.5 |
16 |
|
June 4-9, 2008 (Phone) |
65.5 |
21 |
13.5 |
|
June 7/8, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
20 |
18.5 |
|
June 14/15 & 21/22, 2008 (Face : Face) |
64.5 |
21 |
14.5 |
|
June 28/29 & July 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
23.5 |
15 |
|
July 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
66 |
22 |
12 |
|
July 19/20, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61 |
24 |
15 |
|
July 26/27 & August 2/3, 2008 (Face : Face) |
59.5 |
24.5 |
16 |
|
August 9/10 & 16/17, 2008 (Face : Face) |
62 |
23 |
15 |
|
August 23/24 & 30/31, 2008 (Face : Face) |
60.5 |
23.5 |
16 |
|
September 6/7 & 13/14, 2008 (Face : Face) |
57.5 |
26.5 |
16 |
|
|
|
Malcolm Turnbull replaces Brendan Nelson as Leader of Opposition on September 15, 2008 |
|
|
|
September 24/25, 2008 (Phone) |
51 |
29.5 |
19.5 |
|
September 20/21& 27/28, 2008 (Face : Face) |
54 |
29 |
17 |
|
October 8/9, 2008 (Phone) |
52 |
29 |
19 |
|
October 4/5 & 11/12, 2008 (Face : Face) |
53.5 |
30 |
16.5 |
|
October 15/16, 2008 (Phone) |
58.5 |
22.5 |
19 |
|
October 18/19 & 25/26, 2008 (Face : Face) |
57.5 |
29 |
13.5 |
|
November 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face) |
58.5 |
25.5 |
16 |
|
November 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face) |
59.5 |
26 |
14.5 |
|
November 29/30 & December 6/7, 2008 (Face : Face) |
62.5 |
22.5 |
15 |
|
December 13/14 & 20/21, 2008 (Face : Face) |
63.5 |
21 |
15.5 |
|
January 3/4 & 10/11, 2009 (Face : Face) |
65 |
23 |
12 |
|
January 17/18 & 24/25, 2009 (Face : Face) |
66 |
21 |
13 |
|
January 31 & February 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
58.5 |
26.5 |
15 |
|
February 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
63 |
24 |
13 |
|
February 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
67.5 |
21 |
11.5 |
|
February 21/22 & 28/ March 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
66 |
19.5 |
14.5 |
|
March 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
63.5 |
21 |
15.5 |
|
March 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
64 |
24 |
12 |
|
March 21/22 & 28/29, 2009 (Face : Face) |
65 |
20.5 |
14.5 |
|
April 4/5 & 11/12, 2009 (Face : Face) |
70.5 |
18 |
11.5 |
|
April 18/19 & 25/26, 2009 (Face : Face) |
68.5 |
18.5 |
13 |
|
May 2/3 & 9/10, 2009 (Face : Face) |
65.5 |
22 |
12.5 |
|
May 16/17, 2009 (Face : Face) |
65.5 |
24 |
10.5 |
|
May 20/21, 2009 (Phone) |
69 |
19.5 |
11.5 |
|
May 23/24 & 30/31, 2009 (Face : Face) |
62 |
25.5 |
12.5 |
|
June 3/4, 2009 (Phone) |
66.5 |
22.5 |
11 |
|
June 10/11, 2009 (Phone) |
69 |
18 |
13 |
|
June 6/7 & 13/14, 2009 (Face : Face) |
63.5 |
24 |
12.5 |
|
June 20/21, 2009 (Face : Face) |
61 |
26.5 |
12.5 |
|
July 1/2, 2009 (Phone) |
71.5 |
15.5 |
13 |
|
June 27/28 & July 4/5, 2009 (Face : Face) |
69.5 |
18 |
12.5 |
|
July 11/12 & 18/19, 2009 (Face : Face) |
69 |
19.5 |
11.5 |
|
July 25/26 & August 1/2, 2009 (Face : Face) |
70 |
16.5 |
13.5 |
|
August 5/6, 2009 (Phone) |
71.5 |
14 |
14.5 |
|
August 8/9 & 15/16, 2009 (Face : Face) |
71 |
16 |
13 |
|
August 22/23 & 29/30, 2009 (Face : Face) |
71.5 |
17 |
11.5 |
|
September 5/6 & 12/13, 2009 (Face : Face) |
71.5 |
17 |
11.5 |
|
September 19/20 & 26/27, 2009 (Face : Face) |
70 |
19 |
11 |
|
October 7/8, 2009 (Phone) |
76.5 |
12.5 |
11 |
|
October 3/4 & 10/11, 2009 (Face : Face) |
74.5 |
16 |
9.5 |
|
October 17/18 & 24/25, 2009 (Face : Face) |
73 |
18 |
9 |
|
October 31 & November 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
71 |
17.5 |
11.5 |
|
November 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
70.5 |
18.5 |
11 |
|
November 11/12, 2009 (Phone) |
72.5 |
15 |
12.5 |
|
November 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
67.5 |
21 |
11.5 |
|
November 21/22, 2009 (Face : Face) |
69 |
19 |
12 |
|
November 28/29, 2009 (Face : Face) |
72 |
19 |
9 |
|
|
|
Tony Abbott replaces Malcolm Turnbull as Leader of Opposition on December 1, 2009 |
|
|
|
December 2/3, 2009 (Phone) |
78 |
13 |
9 |
|
December 4-9, 2009 (Phone) |
66.5 |
20.5 |
13 |
|
December 5/6 & 12/13, 2009 (Face : Face) |
70.5 |
18 |
11.5 |
|
December 19/20, 2009 & January 2/3, 2010 (Face : Face) |
66 |
22 |
12 |
|
January 13/14, 2010 (Phone) |
73.5 |
15.5 |
11 |
|
January 9/10 & 16/17, 2010 (Face : Face) |
70 |
19 |
11 |
|
January 23/24 & 30/31, 2010 (Face : Face) |
66 |
22.5 |
11.5 |
|
February 10/11, 2010 (Phone) |
66 |
19 |
15 |
|
February 6/7 & 13/14, 2010 (Face : Face) |
66.5 |
23 |
10.5 |
|
February 20/21, 2010 (Face : Face) |
65 |
24.5 |
10.5 |
|
February 27/28 & March 6/7, 2010 (Face : Face) |
61 |
26 |
13 |
|
March 13/14 & 20/21, 2010 (Face : Face) |
65 |
23.5 |
11.5 |
|
March 27/28 & April 3/4, 2010 (Face : Face) |
68 |
21 |
11 |
|
April 10/11 & 17/18, 2010 (Face : Face) |
63 |
25 |
12 |
|
April 24/25, 2010 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
25 |
13.5 |
|
May 1/2, 2010 (Face : Face) |
60 |
27.5 |
12.5 |
|
May 4/5, 2010 (Phone) |
61 |
27.5 |
11.5 |
|
May 8/9, 2010 (Face : Face) |
54 |
32 |
14 |
|
May 12/13, 2010 (Phone) |
56 |
30 |
14 |
|
May 15/16, 2010 (Face : Face) |
53 |
33.5 |
13.5 |
|
May 22/23, 2010 (Face : Face) |
55 |
29.5 |
15.5 |
|
May 26/27, 2010 (Phone) |
56.5 |
28 |
15.5 |
|
May 29/30, 2010 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
33.5 |
15 |
|
June 5/6, 2010 (Face : Face) |
49 |
33.5 |
17.5 |
|
June 12/13, 2010 (Face : Face) |
48.5 |
38.5 |
13 |
|
June 19/20, 2010 (Face : Face) |
46 |
41 |
13 |
| |
| Julia Gillard replaces Kevin Rudd as Australian Prime Minister on June 24, 2010 |
| |
|
June 25-28, 2010 (Phone) |
55.5 |
28 |
16.5 |
|
June 26/27 & July 3/4, 2010 (Face : Face) |
62 |
27.5 |
10.5 |
|
July 10/11, 2010 (Face : Face) |
53.5 |
30 |
16.5 |
|
July 17/18, 2010 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
26 |
12.5 |
|
July 20/21, 2010 (Phone) |
69.5 |
18.5 |
12 |
AUSTRALIA HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION
Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”
| |
Interviewing Dates — ALP Government (v Malcolm Turnbull) |
| |
July
1/2 |
June 27/28
& July 4/5 |
July 11/12
& 18/19 |
July 25/26
& Aug 1/2 |
Aug
5/6 |
Aug 8/9
& 15/16 |
Aug 22/23
& 29/30 |
Sep 5/6
& 12/13 |
Sep 19/20
& 26/27 |
Oct
7/8 |
Oct 3/4
& 10/11 |
Oct 17/18
& 24/25 |
Oct 31
& Nov 1 |
Nov
7/8 |
Nov
11/12 |
Nov
14/15 |
Nov
21/22 |
Nov
28/29 |
| |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Face |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Right direction |
60 |
56.5 |
61 |
62.5 |
59 |
63 |
63 |
65 |
63.5 |
70 |
67 |
63 |
60 |
60 |
60.5 |
60 |
59.5 |
57.5 |
|
Wrong direction |
27.5 |
28 |
22.5 |
21 |
26 |
21.5 |
22.5 |
20.5 |
20 |
17.5 |
17 |
21.5 |
18.5 |
23.5 |
27 |
24 |
26 |
24 |
|
Roy Morgan GCR* |
132.5 |
128.5 |
138.5 |
141.5 |
133 |
141.5 |
140.5 |
144.5 |
143.5 |
152.5 |
150 |
141.5 |
141.5 |
136.5 |
133.5 |
136 |
133.5 |
133.5 |
|
Can’t say |
12.5 |
15.5 |
16.5 |
16.5 |
15 |
15.5 |
14.5 |
14.5 |
16.5 |
12.5 |
16 |
15.5 |
21.5 |
16.5 |
12.5 |
16 |
14.5 |
18.5 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
| |
Interviewing Dates — ALP Government (v Tony Abbott) |
| |
Dec
2/3 |
Dec
4-9 |
Dec 5/6
& 12/13 |
Dec 19/20
& Jan 2/3 |
Jan 13/14 |
Jan 9/10
& 16/17 |
Jan 23/24
& 30/31 |
Feb
10/11 |
Feb 6/7
& 13/14 |
Feb
20/21 |
Feb 27/28
& Mar 6/7 |
Mar 13/14
& 20/21 |
Mar 27/28
& Apr 3/4 |
Apr 10/11
& 17/18 |
Apr
24/25 |
| |
Phone |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Right direction |
54 |
52.5 |
59.5 |
58.5 |
56.5 |
59.5 |
61 |
57.5 |
57.5 |
58.5 |
57 |
56 |
53 |
55 |
56.5 |
|
Wrong direction |
33 |
29.5 |
23 |
126 |
29 |
23 |
24 |
28.5 |
24 |
26.5 |
26 |
25 |
30 |
28.5 |
30 |
|
Roy Morgan GCR* |
121 |
123 |
136.5 |
132.5 |
127.5 |
136.5 |
137 |
129 |
133.5 |
132 |
131 |
131 |
123 |
126.5 |
126.5 |
|
Can’t say |
13 |
18 |
17.5 |
15.5 |
14.5 |
17.5 |
15 |
14 |
18.5 |
15 |
17 |
19 |
17 |
16.5 |
13.5 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
| |
Interviewing Dates — ALP Government (v Tony Abbott) |
| |
May
1/2 |
May
4/5 |
May
8/9 |
May
12/13 |
May
15/16 |
May
22/23 |
May
26/27 |
May
29/30 |
June
5/6 |
June
12/13 |
June
19/20 |
June
25-28 |
June 26/27
& July 3/4 |
July
10/11 |
July
17/18 |
July
20/21 |
| |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Right direction |
55 |
55.5 |
47 |
56 |
52 |
53 |
45.5 |
46.5 |
51 |
50 |
50 |
54.5 |
55.5 |
54.5 |
52 |
54.5 |
|
Wrong direction |
28.5 |
32 |
34 |
32.5 |
32 |
31.5 |
38.5 |
35 |
29.5 |
32 |
33 |
29.5 |
24.5 |
23.5 |
28.5 |
32.5 |
|
Roy Morgan GCR* |
126.5 |
123.5 |
113 |
123.5 |
120 |
121.5 |
107 |
111.5 |
121.5 |
118 |
117 |
125 |
131 |
131 |
123.5 |
122 |
|
Can’t say |
16.5 |
12.5 |
19 |
11.5 |
16 |
15.5 |
16 |
18.5 |
19.5 |
18 |
17 |
16 |
20 |
22 |
19.5 |
13 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
Phone: Telephone survey method; Face: Face-to-face survey method.
* Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (100 plus the difference between the percentage of people who say the country is “going in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “going in seriously the wrong direction”)
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
|
Sample Size |
Percentage Estimate |
| |
40%-60% |
25% or 75% |
10% or 90% |
5% or 95% |
|
500 |
±4.5 |
±3.9 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
| 1,000 |
±3.2 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
±1.4 |
|
1,500 |
±2.6 |
±2.2 |
±1.5 |
±1.1 |
|
2,000 |
±2.2 |
±1.9 |
±1.3 |
±1 |
The Morgan Poll was the most accurate of all polling companies at the 2007 Federal Election for both primary vote and two-party preferred predictions (sample 2,115 electors).
The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland Election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).
The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian Election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors). The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.
Note: The recent discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading.
The following included comment says it all: “I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%). Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll. On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s.”
View Federal Voting Intention Trend
The Roy Morgan Research Centre conducts the Morgan Poll in Australia and New Zealand and is the Gallup International Association Member
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.
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