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ALP slide continues despite the “New” Julia Gillard
‘Gender Gap’ disappears as support for the ALP amongst women collapses

Finding No. 4546 - This telephone Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted last night, August 3, 2010 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 660 electors. Of all electors surveyed, 5.5% (down 2.5%) did not name a party.: August 04, 2010

In the first Morgan Poll taken since Prime Minister Julia Gillard announced that she would now be the ‘Real Julia,’ the ALP Two-Party preferred support has continued to slide — now at 50% (down 3% since the telephone Morgan Poll of July 27/28, 2010) dead level with the Opposition L-NP (50%, up 3%) according to the telephone Morgan Poll conducted last night, August 3, 2010.

The L-NP primary vote has leapt to 45% (up 3%) to be well ahead of the ALP 38% (down 4%), while the Greens at 11% are unchanged. Family First is 1% (down 0.5%) and Independents/ Others 5% (up 1.5%).

Analysis by gender clearly shows a large fall in the ALP vote amongst women is behind this week’s overall fall in the ALP vote. Women now marginally prefer the L-NP (50.5%) cf. ALP (49.5%) on a Two-Party preferred basis while men lean slightly towards the ALP (50.5%) cf. L-NP (49.5%).

Two-Party

Preferred Result

All electors

Analysis by Gender

Men

Women

 

July 27/28,

2010

Aug 3,

2010

July 27/28,

2010

Aug 3,

2010

July 27/28,

2010

Aug 3,

2010

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

53

50

48.5

50.5

58

49.5

L-NP

47

50

51.5

49.5

42

50.5

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

ALP Lead

6%

-

(3%)

1%

16%

(1%)

Although relatively small State samples, analysis shows the L-NP retains a clear lead in Queensland and Western Australia and is now just ahead in New South Wales while the ALP leads strongly in Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania.

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is now at 115.5 (down 5pts), with 50% (down 1.5%) of Australians confident that Australia is ‘heading in the right direction,’ compared to 34.5% (up 3.5%) that say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction.’

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s telephone Morgan Poll shows that the gender divide that had emerged between Prime Minister Julia Gillard and Opposition Leader Tony Abbott has largely disappeared in relation to voting intentions.

“The strong voting preference for the ALP by women found in previous weeks has disappeared as women are on a Two-Party preferred basis now marginally in favour of the L-NP (50.5%, up 8.5% since July 27/28, 2010) cf. ALP (49.5%, down 8.5%).

“This large swing is behind the fall in the overall ALP Two-Party preferred vote to 50% (down 3%) to now be exactly even with the L-NP (50%, up 3%). Tony Abbott’s efforts in recent weeks to win over the women’s vote are starting to ‘bear fruit.’”

 

Electors were asked: “If a Federal Election for the House of Representatives were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?”

This telephone Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted last night, August 3, 2010 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 660 electors. Of all electors surveyed, 5.5% (down 2.5%) did not name a party.

 

For further information:

 

Gary Morgan:              Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

 

Michele Levine:          Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

 

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

     

The

Family

Ind./

 

ALP

L-NP

Greens

First#*

Others

RECENT ELECTION RESULTS

%

%

%

%

%

Election March 2, 1996
38.8
47.3 (8.6)
1.7
0
12.2
Election October 3^, 1998
40.1
39.5 (5.3)
2.1
0
18.3
Election November 10, 2001
37.8
43 (5.6)
4.4
0
13.8
Election October 9, 2004
37.6
46.4 (5.9)
7.2
2.0
6.8
Election November 24, 2007
43.4
42.1 (5.9)
7.8
2.0
4.7

MORGAN POLL

          
Dec 5/6, 2007 (Phone)
49
36.5 (3.5)
7
1.5
6
Dec 1/2 & 8/9, 2007 (Face : Face)
49.5
34 (2.5)
10.5
2.5
3.5
Jan 5/6 & 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face)
51.5
33 (2.5)
8
2
5.5
Jan 23/24, 2008 (Phone)
53
32 (2)
10
1
4
Jan 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face)
49
36 (3)
8.5
1.5
5
Jan 30/31, 2008 (Phone)
50
34.5 (3)
8
1
6.5
Feb 2/3 & 9/10, 2008 (Face : Face)
54
33 (3)
7.5
1.5
4
Feb 16/17 & 23/24, 2008 (Face : Face)
56.5
31.5 (3)
6.5
1.5
4
Mar 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face)
55.5
30.5 (2.5)
9
1.5
3.5
Mar 11/12, 2008 (Phone)
53.5
34 (2.5)
5.5
1.5
5.5
Mar 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face)
55
31 (2)
7
3
4
Mar 26/27 & Apr 2/3, 2008 (Phone)
51
34 (2)
7.5
2
5.5
Apr 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face)
53.5
33.5 (2)
7.5
1.5
4
Apr 9/10, 2008 (Phone)
54
32 (3)
8.5
1
4.5
Apr 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face)
54
33.5 (4.5)
6.5
1
5
Apr 16/17, 2008 (Phone)
55
33 (2.5)
6
1
5
Apr 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face)
54.5
33.5 (3.5)
5.5
2.5
4
May 3/4, 2008(Face : Face)
52.5
32.5 (2)
8
2
5
May 7-11, 2008(Phone)
47
37 (2.5)
9
1
6
May 17/18, 2008 (Face : Face)
51.5
35 (2.5)
8.5
1
4
May 24/25, 2008 (Face : Face)
53
34 (3)
5.5
2.5
5
May 31 - June 1, 2008 (Face : Face)
52.5
31.5 (2.5)
9
2
5
June 4-9, 2008 (Phone)
45.5
38.5 (2)
8.5
1.5
6
June 7/8, 2008 (Face : Face)
48.5
36 (3)
8.5
2
5
June 14/15 & 21/22, 2008 (Face : Face)
52
34 (2)
8
1.5
4.5
June 28/29 & July 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face)
48.5
35 (2.5)
8
2.5
6
July 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face)
48
34.5 (2.5)
11.5
2.5
3.5
July 19/20, 2008 (Face : Face)
45.5
39.5 (2)
7.5
2
5.5
July 26/27 & August 2/3, 2008 (Face : Face)
45.5
39.5 (2.5)
8
1.5
6
August 9/10 & 16/17, 2008 (Face : Face)
47
37.5 (4)
8.5
2
5
August 23/24 & 30/31, 2008 (Face : Face)
50
37 (3)
6.5
2
4.5
September 6/7 & 13/14, 2008 (Face : Face)
45
38 (3.5)
8
1.5
7.5
 
Malcolm Turnbull replaces Brendan Nelson as Leader of Opposition on September 15, 2008
 
September 24/25, 2008 (Phone)
46.5
38.5 (3)
8
2.5
4.5
September 20/21 & 27/28, 2008 (Face : Face)
46.5
36.5 (3.5)
10
1.5
5.5
October 8/9, 2008 (Phone)
46.5
36 (2)
9.5
3
5
October 4/5 & 11/12, 2008 (Face : Face)
46
36 (2.5)
9.5
2.5
6
October 15/16, 2008 (Phone)
48
38 (2)
8
1.5
4.5
October 18/19 & 25/26, 2008 (Face : Face)
46.5
37.5 (2.5)
8.5
2
5.5
November 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face)
49
36 (3)
8.5
2
4.5
November 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face)
50.5
35.5 (2)
7.5
2
4.5
November 29/30 & December 6/7, 2008 (Face : Face)
48.5
34.5 (2.5)
10.5
1.5
5
December 13/14 & 20/21, 2008 (Face : Face)
52.5
35.5 (3)
6
1.5
4.5
January 3/4 & 10/11, 2009 (Face : Face)
51.5
35 (4)
8
1.5
4
January 17/18 & 24/25, 2009 (Face : Face)
50.5
36 (2)
7.5
1.5
4.5
January 31 & February 1, 2009 (Face : Face)
46.5
38 (4)
8
2.5
5
February 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face)
51.5
35.5 (3.5)
8
1.5
3.5
February 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face)
49
36.5 (3.5)
7.5
1
6
February 21/22 & 28/ March 1, 2009 (Face : Face)
51.5
33 (2.5)
8.5
2.5
4.5
March 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face)
 50.5 34.5 (3) 8 2 5
March 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face)
 48.5 39 (3) 6 1.5 5
March 21/22 & 28/29, 2009 (Face : Face)
 53 33.5 (3) 8 1.5 4
April 4/5 & 11/12, 2009 (Face : Face)
 51.5 33.5 (2.5) 8 2 5
April 18/19 & 25/26, 2009 (Face : Face)
 50 36.5 (2) 8.5 1.5 3.5
May 2/3 & 9/10, 2009 (Face : Face)
 50 34 (2) 9 2.5 4.5
May 16/17, 2009 (Face : Face)
 49.5 37.5 (1.5) 8 1.5 3.5
May 20/21, 2009 (Phone)
 45 40.5 (4) 7.5 1 6
May 23/24 & 30/31, 2009 (Face : Face)
 49 36 (2.5) 8 2 5
June 3/4, 2009 (Phone)
 43.5 39.5 (3.5) 9 2.5 5.5
June 10/11, 2009 (Phone)
 47 37 (2.5) 8.5 2.5 5
June 6/7 & 13/14, 2009 (Face : Face)
 48.5 38 (3) 7 2.5 4
June 20/21, 2009 (Face : Face)
 46 41 (3.5) 8.5 1 3.5
July 1/2, 2009 (Phone)
 46 39 (2.5) 8 1 6
June 27/28 & July 4/5, 2009 (Face : Face)
 46.5 35 (3) 11.5 2.5 4.5
July 11/12 & 18/19, 2009 (Face : Face)
 48 37.5 (3) 8 2 4.5
July 25/26 & August 1/2, 2009 (Face : Face)
 50.5 34 (2.5) 8.5 2 5
August 5/6, 2009 (Phone)
 45.5 37.5 (3) 11 1.5 4.5
August 8/9 & 15/16, 2009 (Face : Face)
 47.5 34.5 (3) 9.5 2.5 6
August 22/23 & 29/30, 2009 (Face : Face)
 50.5 33.5 (3.5) 9.5 2 4.5
September 5/6 & 12/13, 2009 (Face : Face)
 51.5 32.5 (3.5) 9.5 2 4.5
September 19/20 & 26/27, 2009 (Face : Face)
 51 35.5 (2.5) 7.5 2 4
October 7/8, 2009 (Phone)
 46.5 37 (4.5) 10.5 1 5
October 3/4 & 10/11, 2009 (Face : Face)
 49.5 34 (2.5) 9 2.5 5
October 17/18 & 24/25, 2009 (Face : Face)
 52 34.5 (3) 7.5 2 4
October 31 & November 1, 2009 (Face : Face)
 51 32.5 (2.5) 9.5 2 5
November 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face)
 46.5 38.5 (3) 8 2 5
November 11/12, 2009 (Phone)
 42.5 41.5 (4) 8 1 7
November 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face)
 45 36.5 (4) 9 3 6.5
November 21/22, 2009 (Face : Face)
 48 35.5 (2) 9 1.5 6
November 28/29, 2009 (Face : Face)
 47 35 (3.5) 9.5 3 5.5
 
Tony Abbott replaces Malcolm Turnbull as Leader of Opposition on December 1, 2009
 
December 2/3, 2009 (Phone)
 41 43 (3.5) 10.5 1.5 4
December 4-9, 2009 (Phone)
 42 41.5 (2) 9.5 1.5 5.5
December 5/6 & 12/13, 2009 (Face : Face)
 49 35.5 (2) 8 1.5 6
December 19/20, 2009 & January 2/3, 2010 (Face : Face)
 45.5 37 (2.5) 10 2 5.5
January 13/14, 2010 (Phone)
 43 39 (3) 9.5 1.5 7
January 9/10 & 16/17, 2010 (Face : Face)
 47.5 35.5 (3.5) 10 2 5
January 23/24 & 30/31, 2010 (Face : Face)
 46 38 (3) 8.5 1.5 6
February 10/11, 2010 (Phone)
 42 41 (4.5) 10.5 1 5.5
February 6/7 & 13/14, 2010 (Face : Face)
 47 37 (2.5) 9 2 5
February 20/21, 2010 (Face : Face)
 45 37.5 (3) 9 2.5 6
February 27/28 & March 6/7, 2010 (Face : Face)
 45 38.5 (2.5) 8.5 2 6
March 13/14 & 20/21, 2010 (Face : Face)
 44.5 37 (2) 11 2 5.5
March 27/28 & April 3/4, 2010 (Face : Face)
 48 36.5 (2) 8.5 2.5 4.5
April 10/11 & 17/18, 2010 (Face : Face)
 43 37.5 (3) 12 2 5.5
April 24/25, 2010 (Face : Face)
 44 40.5 (3.5) 8 2.5 5
May 1/2, 2010 (Face : Face)
 43.5 40 (3) 9 2.5 5
May 4/5, 2010 (Phone)
 39.5 44.5 (2.5) 9 1.5 5.5
May 8/9, 2010 (Face : Face)
 41 42.5 (3.5) 9 2.5 5
May 12/13, 2010 (Phone)
 36 46 (2.5) 11.5 2 4.5
May 15/16, 2010 (Face : Face)
 37.5 43 (3) 12 1.5 6
May 22/23, 2010 (Face : Face)
 42.5 41 (2) 11 2 3.5
May 26/27, 2010 (Phone)
 37.5 43 (3) 11.5 1.5 6.5
May 29/30, 2010 (Face : Face)
 42 41 (2.5) 8.5 1.5 7
June 5/6, 2010 (Face : Face)
 40 41.5 (2) 11 2.5 2
June 12/13, 2010 (Face : Face)
 38 41 (1.5) 13 1.5 6.5
June 19/20, 2010 (Face : Face)
 41 41 (2.5) 12.5 1.5 4
 
Julia Gillard replaces Kevin Rudd as Australian Prime Minister on June 24, 2010
 
June 25-28, 2010 (Phone)
 38.5 45.5 (4.5) 9 1.5 5.5
June 26/27 & July 3/4, 2010 (Face : Face)
 45.5 38 (2) 10.5 1.5 4.5
July 10/11, 2010 (Face : Face)
 40.5 41 (3.5) 12 1.5 5
July 17/18, 2010 (Face : Face)
 44.5 39.5 (4.5) 10.5 1.5 4
July 20/21, 2010 (Phone)
 44 38.5 (3) 11.5 2 4
July 24/25, 2010 (Face : Face)
 43.5 37 (2) 11.5 1.5 6.5
July 27/28, 2010 (Phone)
 42 42 (2.5) 11 1.5 3.5
August 3, 2010 (Phone)
 38 45 (2.5) 11 1 5

Note: National Party results are in brackets. # Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.

^ 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.

* The Family First Party were included as an option on Federal Voting Intention from October 30, 2004.

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)

 

ALP

L-NP

    
 
%
 %    
Election March 2, 1996
46.4
53.6
    
Election October 3^, 1998
51
49
    
Election November 10, 2001
49
51
    
Election October 9, 2004
47.3
52.7
    
Election November 24, 2007
52.7
47.3
    
         

 

Preferences distributed

by how electors voted

at the 2007 election

Preferences distributed

by how electors

say they will vote

  % % % %
MORGAN POLL
ALP
L-NP
ALP
L-NP
Dec 5/6, 2007 (Phone)
58.5
41.5
58.5
41.5
Dec 1/2 & 8/9, 2007 (Face : Face)
60.5
39.5
61.5
38.5
Jan 5/6 & 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face)
61.5
38.5
62
38
Jan 23/24, 2008 (Phone)
63
37
63
37
Jan 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face)
59
41
60
40
Jan 30/31, 2008 (Phone)
60
40
60
40
Feb 2/3 & 9/10, 2008 (Face : Face)
62.5
37.5
63
37
Feb 16/17 & 23/24, 2008 (Face : Face)
64.5
35.5
64.5
35.5
Mar 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face)
65
35
65.5
34.5
Mar 11/12, 2008 (Phone)
61
39
62
38
Mar 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face)
63.5
36.5
63.5
36.5
Mar 26/27 & Apr 2/3, 2008 (Phone)
60.5
39.5
61.5
38.5
Apr 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face)
62
38
61.5
38.5
Apr 9/10, 2008 (Phone)
63.5
36.5
64.5
35.5
Apr 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face)
62
38
62.5
37.5
Apr 16/17, 2008 (Phone)
62.5
37.5
64
36
Apr 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face)
61.5
38.5
62.5
37.5
May 3/4, 2008(Face : Face)
62
38
64
36
May 7-11, 2008 (Phone)
58
42
58
42
May 17/18, 2008 (Face : Face)
60.5
39.5
61
39
May 24/25, 2008 (Face : Face)
61
39
62
38
May 31 - June 1, 2008 (Face : Face)
63
37
63.5
36.5
June 4-9, 2008 (Phone)
56
44
56
44
June 7/8, 2008 (Face : Face)
58.5
41.5
59
41
June 14/15 & 21/22, 2008 (Face : Face)
61
39
61.5
38.5
June 28/29 & July 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face)
59
41
59
41
July 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face)
60
40
59.5
40.5
July 19/20, 2008 (Face : Face)
55
45
55
45
July 26/27 & August 2/3, 2008 (Face : Face)
55
45
54.5
45.5
August 9/10 & 16/17, 2008 (Face : Face)
57
43
57.5
42.5
August 23/24 & 30/31, 2008 (Face : Face)
58
42
59
41
September 6/7 & 13/14, 2008 (Face : Face)
55.5
44.5
56
44
Malcolm Turnbull replaces Brendan Nelson as Leader of the Opposition on September 15, 2008
September 24/25, 2008 (Phone)
56
44
57.5
42.5
September 20/21 & 27/28, 2008 (Face : Face)
57.5
42.5
58.5
41.5
October 8/9, 2008 (Phone)
57.5
42.5
56.5
43.5
October 4/5 & 11/12, 2008 (Face : Face)
57.5
42.5
58
42
October 15/16, 2008 (Phone)
57.5
42.5
58
42
October 18/19 & 25/26, 2008 (Face : Face)
56.5
43.5
57
43
November 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face)
58.5
41.5
59.5
40.5
November 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face)
59.5
40.5
60.5
39.5
November 29/30 & December 6/7, 2008 (Face : Face)
59.5
40.5
60.5
39.5
December 13/14 & 20/21, 2008 (Face : Face)
60
40
61
39
January 3/4 & 10/11, 2009 (Face : Face)
60
40
61
39
January 17/18 & 24/25, 2009 (Face : Face)
59.5
40.5
58.5
41.5
January 31 & February 1, 2009 (Face : Face)
56
44
55.5
44.5
February 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face)
60
40
62
38
February 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face)
59.5
40.5
59.5
40.5
February 21/22 & 28/ March 1, 2009 (Face : Face)
61.5
38.5
62
38
March 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face)
60.5
39.5
61.5
38.5
March 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face)
57
43
56.5
43.5
March 21/22 & 28/29, 2009 (Face : Face)
61
39
61.5
38.5
April 4/5 & 11/12, 2009 (Face : Face)
61
39
62
38
April 18/19 & 25/26, 2009 (Face : Face)
59
41
60
40
May 2/3 & 9/10, 2009 (Face : Face)
60
40
60
40
May 16/17, 2009 (Face : Face)
58
42
58
42
May 20/21, 2009 (Phone)
54.5
45.5
55.5
44.5
May 23/24 & 30/31, 2009 (Face : Face)
58
42
59
41
June 3/4, 2009 (Phone)
54.5
45.5
55
45
June 10/11, 2009 (Phone)
57.5
42.5
58
42
June 6/7 & 13/14, 2009 (Face : Face)
57
43
57.5
42.5
June 20/21, 2009 (Face : Face)
55
45
54.5
45.5
July 1/2, 2009 (Phone)
56
44
56.5
43.5
June 27/28 & July 4/5, 2009 (Face : Face)
58
42
59
41
July 11/12 & 18/19, 2009 (Face : Face)
57.5
42.5
57
43
July 25/26 & August 1/2, 2009 (Face : Face)
60.5
39.5
61.5
38.5
August 5/6, 2009 (Phone)
57
43
57.5
42.5
August 8/9 & 15/16, 2009 (Face : Face)
58
42
59
41
August 22/23 & 29/30, 2009 (Face : Face)
61
39
61.5
38.5
September 5/6 & 12/13, 2009 (Face : Face)
62
38
63
37
September 19/20 & 26/27, 2009 (Face : Face)
59.5
40.5
59.5
40.5
October 7/8, 2009 (Phone)
58
42
58
42
October 3/4 & 10/11, 2009 (Face : Face)
60
40
61
39
October 17/18 & 24/25, 2009 (Face : Face)
60.5
39.5
61
39
October 31 & November 1, 2009 (Face : Face)
61
39
61
39
November 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face)
56
44
55
45
November 11/12, 2009 (Phone)
52
48
52
48
November 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face)
56.5
43.5
57
43
November 21/22, 2009 (Face : Face)
58.5
41.5
58
42
November 28/29, 2009 (Face : Face)
58.5
41.5
58.5
41.5
Tony Abbott replaces Malcolm Turnbull as Leader of the Opposition on December 1, 2009
December 2/3, 2009 (Phone)
53
47
53
47
December 4-9, 2009 (Phone)
55.5
44.5
52.5
47.5
December 5/6 & 12/13, 2009 (Face : Face)
59
41
58.5
41.5
December 19/20, 2009 & January 2/3, 2010 (Face : Face)
57
43
57
43
January 13/14, 2010 (Phone)
54.5
45.5
56
44
January 9/10 & 16/17, 2010 (Face : Face)
58.5
41.5
60
40
January 23/24 & 30/31, 2010 (Face : Face)
56.5
43.5
56.5
43.5
February 10/11, 2010 (Phone)
53.5
46.5
53
47
February 6/7 & 13/14, 2010 (Face : Face)
57.5
42.5
58
42
February 20/21, 2010 (Face : Face)
56.5
43.5
57.5
42.5
February 27/28 & March 6/7, 2010 (Face : Face)
55.5
44.5
56
44
March 13/14 & 20/21, 2010 (Face : Face)
56.5
43.5
57
43
March 27/28 & April 3/4, 2010 (Face : Face)
58
42
57.5
42.5
April 10/11 & 17/18, 2010 (Face : Face)
56
44
56.5
43.5
April 24/25, 2010 (Face : Face)
54.5
45.5
55
45
May 1/2, 2010 (Face : Face)
 54 46 55 45
May 4/5, 2010 (Phone)
 50 50 49.5 50.5
May 8/9, 2010 (Face : Face)
 51.5 48.5 50.5 49.5
May 12/13, 2010 (Phone)
 48 52 48.5 51.5
May 15/16, 2010 (Face : Face)
 50.5 49.5 50 50
May 22/23, 2010 (Face : Face)
 54.5 45.5 55 45
May 26/27, 2010 (Phone)
 50 50 49.5 50.5
May 29/30, 2010 (Face : Face)
 52.5 47.5 52 48
June 5/6, 2010 (Face : Face)
 52 48 52.5 47.5
June 12/13, 2010 (Face : Face)
 51.5 48.5 51.5 48.5
June 19/20, 2010 (Face : Face)
 53 47 53 47
Julia Gillard replaces Kevin Rudd as Australian Prime Minister on June 24, 2010
June 25-28, 2010 (Phone)
 48.5 51.5 49 51
June 26/27 & July 3/4, 2010 (Face : Face)*
 56.5 43.5 55 45
July 10/11, 2010 (Face : Face)
 53.5 46.5 54.5 45.5
July 17/18, 2010 (Face : Face)
 55 45 56 44
July 20/21, 2010 (Phone)
 55.5 44.5 55.5 44.5
July 24/25, 2010 (Face : Face)
 54 46 55.5 44.5
July 27/28, 2010 (Phone)
 53 47 53 47
August 3, 2010 (Phone)
 49.5 50.5 50 50

^ 1998 Federal Election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.

*Julia Gillard’s rise to become the new Prime Minister necessitates a change in the reported two-party preferred figures to reflect how electors say they will vote.

 

 

THINK WILL WIN

Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal Election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"

Think Will Win

ALP

L-NP

Can't Say

 

%

%

%

Dec 5/6, 2007 (Phone)
58
14.5
27.5
Dec 1/2 & 8/9, 2007 (Face : Face)
61
17
22
Jan 5/6 & 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face)
65
15
20
Jan 23/24, 2008 (Phone)
65
10.5
24.5
Jan 19/20& 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face)
64
16
20
Jan 30/31, 2008 (Phone)
65.5
9
25.5
Feb 2/3 & 9/10, 2008 (Face : Face)
65.5
17
17.5
Feb 16/17 & 23/24, 2008 (Face : Face)
69.5
15
15.5
Mar 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face)
70.5
14
15.5
Mar 11/12, 2008 (Phone)
71
13
16
Mar 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face)
70.5
14.5
15
Mar 26/27 & Apr 2/3, 2008 (Phone)
71.5
12.5
16
Apr 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face)
71.5
15
13.5
Apr 9/10, 2008 (Phone)
75
10
15
Apr 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face)
72
15.5
12.5
Apr 16/17, 2008 (Phone)
73
12
15
Apr 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face)
72.5
15.5
12
May 3/4, 2008(Face : Face)
72.5
14
13.5
May 7-11, 2008(Phone)
70.5
11.5
18
May 17/18, 2008 (Face : Face)
69.5
17
13.5
May 24/25, 2008 (Face : Face)
68
15.5
16.5
May 31 - June 1, 2008 (Face : Face)
63.5
20.5
16
June 4-9, 2008 (Phone)
65.5
21
13.5
June 7/8, 2008 (Face : Face)
61.5
20
18.5
June 14/15 & 21/22, 2008 (Face : Face)
64.5
21
14.5
June 28/29 & July 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face)
61.5
23.5
15
July 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face)
66
22
12
July 19/20, 2008 (Face : Face)
61
24
15
July 26/27 & August 2/3, 2008 (Face : Face)
59.5
24.5
16
August 9/10 & 16/17, 2008 (Face : Face)
62
23
15
August 23/24 & 30/31, 2008 (Face : Face)
60.5
23.5
16
September 6/7 & 13/14, 2008 (Face : Face)
57.5
26.5
16
Malcolm Turnbull replaces Brendan Nelson as Leader of Opposition on September 15, 2008
September 24/25, 2008 (Phone)
51
29.5
19.5
September 20/21& 27/28, 2008 (Face : Face)
54
29
17
October 8/9, 2008 (Phone)
52
29
19
October 4/5 & 11/12, 2008 (Face : Face)
53.5
30
16.5
October 15/16, 2008 (Phone)
58.5
22.5
19
October 18/19 & 25/26, 2008 (Face : Face)
57.5
29
13.5
November 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face)
58.5
25.5
16
November 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face)
59.5
 26 14.5
November 29/30 & December 6/7, 2008 (Face : Face)
62.5
22.5
15
December 13/14 & 20/21, 2008 (Face : Face)
63.5
21
15.5
January 3/4 & 10/11, 2009 (Face : Face)
65
23
12
January 17/18 & 24/25, 2009 (Face : Face)
66
21
13
January 31 & February 1, 2009 (Face : Face)
58.5
26.5
15
February 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face)
63
24
13
February 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face)
67.5
21
11.5
February 21/22 & 28/ March 1, 2009 (Face : Face)
66
19.5
14.5
March 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face)
 63.5 21 15.5
March 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face)
 64 24 12
March 21/22 & 28/29, 2009 (Face : Face)
 65 20.5 14.5
April 4/5 & 11/12, 2009 (Face : Face)
 70.5 18 11.5
April 18/19 & 25/26, 2009 (Face : Face)
 68.5 18.5 13
May 2/3 & 9/10, 2009 (Face : Face)
 65.5 22 12.5
May 16/17, 2009 (Face : Face)
 65.5 24 10.5
May 20/21, 2009 (Phone)
 69 19.5 11.5
May 23/24 & 30/31, 2009 (Face : Face)
 62 25.5 12.5
June 3/4, 2009 (Phone)
 66.5 22.5 11
June 10/11, 2009 (Phone)
 69 18 13
June 6/7 & 13/14, 2009 (Face : Face)
 63.5 24 12.5
June 20/21, 2009 (Face : Face)
 61 26.5 12.5
July 1/2, 2009 (Phone)
 71.5 15.5 13
June 27/28 & July 4/5, 2009 (Face : Face)
 69.5 18 12.5
July 11/12 & 18/19, 2009 (Face : Face)
 69 19.5 11.5
July 25/26 & August 1/2, 2009 (Face : Face)
 70 16.5 13.5
August 5/6, 2009 (Phone)
 71.5 14 14.5
August 8/9 & 15/16, 2009 (Face : Face)
 71 16 13
August 22/23 & 29/30, 2009 (Face : Face)
 71.5 17 11.5
September 5/6 & 12/13, 2009 (Face : Face)
 71.5 17 11.5
September 19/20 & 26/27, 2009 (Face : Face)
 70 19 11
October 7/8, 2009 (Phone)
 76.5 12.5 11
October 3/4 & 10/11, 2009 (Face : Face)
 74.5 16 9.5
October 17/18 & 24/25, 2009 (Face : Face)
 73 18 9
October 31 & November 1, 2009 (Face : Face)
 71 17.5 11.5
November 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face)
 70.5 18.5 11
November 11/12, 2009 (Phone)
 72.5 15 12.5
November 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face)
 67.5 21 11.5
November 21/22, 2009 (Face : Face)
 69 19 12
November 28/29, 2009 (Face : Face)
 72 19 9
Tony Abbott replaces Malcolm Turnbull as Leader of Opposition on December 1, 2009
December 2/3, 2009 (Phone)
 78 13 9
December 4-9, 2009 (Phone)
 66.5 20.5 13
December 5/6 & 12/13, 2009 (Face : Face)
 70.5 18 11.5
December 19/20, 2009 & January 2/3, 2010 (Face : Face)
 66 22 12
January 13/14, 2010 (Phone)
 73.5 15.5 11
January 9/10 & 16/17, 2010 (Face : Face)
 70 19 11
January 23/24 & 30/31, 2010 (Face : Face)
 66 22.5 11.5
February 10/11, 2010 (Phone)
 66 19 15
February 6/7 & 13/14, 2010 (Face : Face)
 66.5 23 10.5
February 20/21, 2010 (Face : Face)
 65 24.5 10.5
February 27/28 & March 6/7, 2010 (Face : Face)
 61 26 13
March 13/14 & 20/21, 2010 (Face : Face)
 65 23.5 11.5
March 27/28 & April 3/4, 2010 (Face : Face)
 68 21 11
April 10/11 & 17/18, 2010 (Face : Face)
 63 25 12
April 24/25, 2010 (Face : Face)
 61.5 25 13.5
May 1/2, 2010 (Face : Face)
 60 27.5 12.5
May 4/5, 2010 (Phone)
 61 27.5 11.5
May 8/9, 2010 (Face : Face)
 54 32 14
May 12/13, 2010 (Phone)
 56 30 14
May 15/16, 2010 (Face : Face)
 53 33.5 13.5
May 22/23, 2010 (Face : Face)
 55 29.5 15.5
May 26/27, 2010 (Phone)
 56.5 28 15.5
May 29/30, 2010 (Face : Face)
 51.5 33.5 15
June 5/6, 2010 (Face : Face)
 49 33.5 17.5
June 12/13, 2010 (Face : Face)
 48.5 38.5 13
June 19/20, 2010 (Face : Face)
 46 41 13
 
Julia Gillard replaces Kevin Rudd as Australian Prime Minister on June 24, 2010
 
June 25-28, 2010 (Phone)
 55.5 28 16.5
June 26/27 & July 3/4, 2010 (Face : Face)
 62 27.5 10.5
July 10/11, 2010 (Face : Face)
 53.5 30 16.5
July 17/18, 2010 (Face : Face)
 61.5 26 12.5
July 20/21, 2010 (Phone)
 69.5 18.5 12
July 24/25, 2010 (Face : Face)
 67.5 18.5 14
July 27/28, 2010 (Phone)
 64.5 20 15.5
August 3, 2010 (Phone)
 52 27 21

 

AUSTRALIA HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION

Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

 

Interviewing Dates — ALP Government (Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott)

 

Dec

2/3

Dec

4-9

Dec 5/6

& 12/13

Dec 19/20

& Jan 2/3

 Jan 13/14

Jan 9/10

& 16/17

Jan 23/24

& 30/31

Feb

10/11

Feb 6/7

& 13/14

Feb

20/21

Feb 27/28

& Mar 6/7

Mar 13/14

& 20/21

Mar 27/28

& Apr 3/4

  Phone Phone Face Face Phone Face Face Phone Face Face Face Face Face
  % % % % % % % % % % % % %

Right direction

 54 52.5 59.5 58.5 56.5 59.5 61 57.5 57.5 58.5 57 56 53

Wrong direction

 33 29.5 23 126 29 23 24 28.5 24 26.5 26 25 30

Roy Morgan GCR*

 121 123 136.5 132.5 127.5 136.5 137 129 133.5 132 131 131 123

Can’t say

 13 18 17.5 15.5 14.5 17.5 15 14 18.5 15 17 19 17

Total

 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

 

 

Interviewing Dates — ALP Government (Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott)

 

Apr 10/11

& 17/18

Apr

24/25

May

1/2

May

4/5

May

8/9

May

12/13

May

15/16

May

22/23

May

26/27

May

29/30

June

5/6

June

12/13

June

19/20

  Face Face Face Phone Face Phone Face Face Phone Face Face Face Face
  % % % % % % % % % % % % %

Right direction

 55 56.5 55 55.5 47 56 52 53 45.5 46.5 51 50 50

Wrong direction

 28.5 30 28.5 32 34 32.5 32 31.5 38.5 35 29.5 32 33

Roy Morgan GCR*

 126.5 126.5 126.5 123.5 113 123.5 120 121.5 107 111.5 121.5 118 117

Can’t say

 16.5 13.5 16.5 12.5 19 11.5 16 15.5 16 18.5 19.5 18 17

Total

 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

 

 

Interviewing Dates — ALP Government (Julia Gillard v Tony Abbott)

 

June

25-28

June 26/27

& July 3/4

July

10/11

July

17/18

July

20/21

July

24/25

July

27/28

Aug

3

              
  Phone Face Face Face Phone Face Phone Phone              
  % % % % % % % %              

Right direction

 54.5 55.5 54.5 52 54.5 51 51.5 50              

Wrong direction

 29.5 24.5 23.5 28.5 32.5 27 31 34.5              

Roy Morgan GCR*

 125 131 131 123.5 122 124 120.5 115.5              

Can’t say

 16 20 22 19.5 13 22 17.5 15.5              

Total

 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100              

Phone: Telephone survey method; Face: Face-to-face survey method.

* Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (100 plus the difference between the percentage of people who say the country is “going in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “going in seriously the wrong direction”)


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1

 

The Morgan Poll was the most accurate of all polling companies at the 2007 Federal Election for both primary vote and two-party preferred predictions (sample 2,115 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland Election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).

 

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian Election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors). The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.

Note: The recent discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading.

The following included comment says it all: “I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%).  Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll.  On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s.”

View Federal Voting Intention Trend

 

The Roy Morgan Research Centre conducts the Morgan Poll in Australia and New Zealand and is the Gallup International Association Member

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

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