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Although Prime Minister Julia Gillard and former PM Kevin Rudd are preferred Prime Minister ahead of Opposition Leader Tony Abbott nationwide, in the key States of Queensland and New South Wales Tony Abbott is preferred as Prime Minister over both ALP candidates according to a special telephone Morgan Poll conducted on the night of August 3, 2010.

Nationwide Gillard (49%) is preferred to Abbott (40%) as Prime Minister while Rudd (47%) is narrowly preferred to Abbott (44%).

However, close analysis by States reveals the real story — in the key State of NSW Abbott (46%) is narrowly preferred to Gillard (45%) and Abbott (48%) is also narrowly preferred to Rudd (45%). Further north in Queensland, Abbott has strong leads over both candidates: Abbott (49%) cf. Gillard (36%) and Abbott (53%) cf. Rudd (39%).

In the State most heavily impacted by the Gillard Government’s proposed MRRT (Mining Resources Rent Tax), Western Australia, Gillard (47%) has a strong lead over Abbott (34%), while former Prime Minister Rudd (44%) has only a narrow lead over Abbott (41%).

In the southern States of Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania, Gillard holds very strong leads over Abbott. Victoria: Gillard (59%) cf. Abbott (31%); South Australia: Gillard (59%) cf. Abbott (34%) and Tasmania: Gillard (57%) cf. Abbott (28%).

Rudd is also preferred to Abbott in all three States. Victoria: Rudd (54%) cf. Abbott (33%); South Australia: Rudd (46%) cf. Abbott (44%) and Tasmania: Rudd (57%) cf. Abbott (34%).

Prime Minister Gillard (51%) performs strongly when electors are asked who they would prefer as Prime Minister compared to former Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull (34%). Gillard leads strongly in New South Wales (53% cf. 29%); Victoria (55% cf. 34%); South Australia (67% cf. 18%) and Tasmania (73% cf. 13%). Gillard also has a narrow lead in Western Australia (42% cf. 40%). However, in Queensland Turnbull (48%) has a strong lead over Gillard (34%).

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s special telephone Morgan Poll reveals a worrying trend for Prime Minister Julia Gillard and the ALP Government. In the key States of New South Wales and Queensland in which the Federal Election will be won and lost, Abbott leads both Gillard and former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd.

“Despite much talk about Rudd’s popularity in his home State that belief is not reflected when electors are actually asked who they prefer. In Queensland Abbott (53%) is clearly preferred as Prime Minister to Rudd (39%) — a lead of 14%. Abbott (49%) is also clearly preferred over Gillard (36%).

“The news in recent days that Rudd is keen to help campaign for the Gillard Government is an election ‘sleeper.’ Although both trail Abbott individually in Queensland and New South Wales will the images of Rudd & Gillard campaigning together help to bury the perception in much of the community that Gillard ‘knifed’ Rudd in the back to become Prime Minister and will these displays of unity make the Gillard Government more competitive in Queensland and New South Wales?

“A snap SMS Morgan Poll conducted early this evening asking whether a combined ‘Gillard/Rudd’ team can beat Tony Abbott finds 63% say yes compared to only 37% that say no.”

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted on the night of August 3, 2010, with an Australia-wide cross section of 618 electors.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:       Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:    Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

Preferred Prime Minister: Julia Gillard vs. Tony Abbott

Electors were asked: “Julia Gillard or Tony Abbott — who would you prefer to see as Australia’s Prime Minister.”

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Aug 3, 2010	ALP	Lib	Nat#	The Greens	Family First#	Ind/ Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Gillard	49	92	9	19	78	34	43
Abbott	40	2	85	68	6	66	39
Gillard lead	9	90	(76)	(49)	72	(32)	4
Other / Neither	11	6	6	13	16	-	18
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

	Electors 18+	Analysis by State
	Aug 3, 2010	NSW	VIC	QLD	WA	SA	TAS#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Gillard	49	45	59	36	47	59	57
Abbott	40	46	31	49	34	34	28
Gillard lead	9	(1)	28	(13)	13	25	29
Other / Neither	11	9	10	15	19	7	15
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Sex & Age
	Aug 3, 2010	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Gillard	49	49	48	59	60	45	45
Abbott	40	43	38	32	27	42	45
Gillard lead	9	6	10	27	33	3	-
Other / Neither	11	8	14	9	13	13	10
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Preferred Prime Minister: Tony Abbott vs. Kevin Rudd

Electors were asked: “Tony Abbott or Kevin Rudd — who would you prefer to see as Australia’s Prime Minister.”

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Aug 3, 2010	ALP	Lib	Nat#	The Greens	Family First#	Ind/ Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Rudd	47	83	11	13	78	34	47
Abbott	44	7	84	79	15	66	41
Rudd lead	3	76	(73)	(66)	63	(32)	6
Other / Neither	9	10	5	8	7	-	12
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

	Electors 18+	Analysis by State
	Aug 3, 2010	NSW	VIC	QLD	WA	SA	TAS#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Rudd	47	45	54	39	44	46	57
Abbott	44	48	33	53	41	44	34
Rudd lead	3	(3)	21	(14)	3	2	23
Other / Neither	9	7	13	8	15	10	9
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Sex & Age
	Aug 3, 2010	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Rudd	47	49	45	58	50	47	43
Abbott	44	43	44	34	34	44	49
Rudd lead	3	6	1	24	16	3	(6)
Other / Neither	9	8	11	8	16	9	8
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Preferred Prime Minister: Julia Gillard vs. Malcolm Turnbull

Electors were asked: “Julia Gillard or Malcolm Turnbull — who would you prefer to see as Australia’s Prime Minister.”

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Aug 3, 2010	ALP	Lib	Nat#	The Greens	Family First#	Ind/ Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Gillard	51	82	21	27	71	80	53
Turnbull	34	8	63	70	18	20	28
Gillard lead	17	74	(42)	(43)	53	60	25
Other / Neither	15	10	16	3	11	-	19
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

	Electors 18+	Analysis by State
	Aug 3, 2010	NSW	VIC	QLD	WA	SA	TAS#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Gillard	51	53	55	34	42	67	73
Turnbull	34	29	34	48	40	18	13
Gillard lead	17	24	21	(14)	2	49	60
Other / Neither	15	18	11	18	18	15	14
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Sex & Age
	Aug 3, 2010	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Gillard	51	50	51	60	62	52	44
Turnbull	34	38	31	30	25	30	41
Gillard lead	17	12	20	30	37	22	3
Other / Neither	15	12	18	10	13	18	15
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.

© 2012 Roy Morgan Research. All Rights Reserved
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