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A special telephone Morgan Poll conducted late this week (August 11/12, 2010) in three marginal seats (Macquarie (NSW), Leichhardt (QLD) & Brand (WA)) shows next week’s Federal Election is set to be too close to call — there could be a ‘hung’ Parliament.

The New South Wales electorate of Macquarie shows a swing of 3.1% to the L-NP since the last Federal Election. If there is a 3% uniform swing to the L-NP across New South Wales then the Liberals will gain the seats of Macquarie, Robertson and Page and either Bennelong or Dobell. Previous Roy Morgan marginal seat polling in NSW showed a similar swing only in Macarthur — which is currently held by the Liberals, but notionally Labor after redistribution.

In Queensland, a recorded swing of 6.6% in Leichhardt means the LNP would gain that seat as well as Longman, Flynn, Dawson, Forde, Petrie and possibly Brisbane or Moreton — if that swing were repeated uniformly across Queensland. Previous Roy Morgan Queensland marginal seat polling showed a similar swing in Longman, Flynn and Dawson.

In Western Australia, a swing of 3.1% in Brand is not enough for a Coalition victory, but would result in a Coalition win in Hasluck. Previous Roy Morgan Western Australia marginal seat polling showed a similar swing in Hasluck.

Across the rest of Australia, there’s a possibility the Coalition will lose McEwen and LaTrobe in Victoria and Sturt in South Australia while the ALP will likely lose the seat of Melbourne to the Greens. Yesterday’s Morgan Poll in the Northern Territory showed the Coalition ahead and likely to win Solomon.

On these figures the Election will be close, however if the swing continues in the last week, the L-NP should easily win Government next Saturday.

Gary Morgan says:

“The positive ALP publicity in the lead up to last weekend’s Rudd/Gillard reconciliation including their pledge to campaign together in Queensland (last weekend’s Morgan Poll showed the ALP leapt ahead — 57.5% cf. 42.5%) has been quickly forgotten due to extremely poor publicity surrounding their Brisbane meeting — clearly ‘stage managed’ with only one photographer and one journalist allowed to attend their short meeting which resulted in 30 seconds of uneventful TV footage showing them uncomfortable in each other’s presence - followed by no joint Queensland campaigning.

“The significant publicity surrounding Rudd’s acceptance of a job with the United Nations — obviously treating his future role in Parliament as a part-time commitment, and former Labor Leader Mark Latham’s confrontation with Gillard soon resulted in any message of Labor Party unity and ‘Moving Australia Forward’ being completely  dissipated.

“While electors believe Julia Gillard would be the better Prime Minister in the three marginal seats surveyed, a high leader approval rating is far less important than the policies presented (I’ve said this for years). The ALP is seen as the ‘best party’ for health services and education; however the Coalition leads on managing the economy, managing immigration and reducing illegal boat people.

“Julia Gillard’s higher approval rating and image of being the better Prime Minister (over Opposition Leader Tony Abbott) appears unlikely to overcome widespread disunity in the Labor Party, past wasteful Government spending and the poor standing of the Queensland & New South Wales State Labor Governments.

“The Federal Election is set to be close (it could end up being a ‘hung’ Parliament) and either party can still win however the electorate believes the Greens will control the Senate (Greens are attracting disenchanted ALP votes because of their handling of  environmental issues and the ETS issue and their humanitarian position regarding ‘boat’ people), and the ALP will lose a significant number of seats in Queensland and New South Wales — Julia Gillard’s $2.6 billion election rail link will be seen by many as blatant (financially absurd) pork-barrelling  in the seat of Bennelong. It has probably ‘stripped’ her of any credibility on economic matters — such as managing the economy, minimising rises in day-to-day living costs or reducing taxes — and ‘linked’ her to the financially incompetent NSW State Government.”

Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today, which party would receive your FIRST preference?”

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted in the key marginal seats of Macquarie (NSW), Leichhardt (QLD) and Brand (WA) on the nights of August 11/12, 2010 with a representative cross-section of 925 electors — 309 electors in Macquarie (NSW); 309 electors in Leichhardt (QLD) and 307 electors in Brand (WA).

For further information:

Gary Morgan:      Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

NEW SOUTH WALES

Macquarie (West Sydney/ Blue Mountains — Richmond, Windsor, Katoomba)

(Projected: L-NP gain)

Primary Voting Intention

	2007 Federal Election November 24, 2007*	Telephone Morgan Poll
		June 25- July 1, 2010	Aug. 11/12, 2010
	%	%	%
ALP	44.1	44	33
Liberal	37.8	36	47.5
Greens	10.4	16.5	14.5
Independents/ Others	7.7	3.5	5
Total	100	100	100

*The Primary Voting Intention results from the 2007 Federal Election are taken from the boundaries used at the 2007 Federal Election.

Two-Party Preferred

	2007 Federal Election Nov. 24, 2007*	Telephone Morgan Poll		Change 2007 Election — Present	Analysis by Gender
		June 25-July 1, 2010	Aug. 11/12, 2010		Men	Women
	%	%	%	%	%	%
ALP	50.1	60.5	47	-3.1	43.5	49.5
Liberal	49.9	39.5	53	+3.1	56.5	50.5
Total	100	100	100		100	100

*The Two-Party Preferred results for the 2007 Federal Election have been recalculated taking into account boundary changes undertaken at the 2009 New South Wales redistribution.
In Macquarie, 309 electors were polled on August 11/12, 2010. In addition, 203 electors were polled on June 25 — July 1, 2010. Of all electors surveyed on August 11/12, 2010, 6% (up 2%) of electors did not nominate a party.

Better Prime Minister: Gillard v Abbott

Respondents were asked: “Thinking of Ms. Gillard and Mr. Abbott. In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister — Ms. Gillard or Mr. Abbott?”

	Electors 18+		Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	June 25-31, 2010	Aug 11/12, 2010	ALP	L-NP	The Greens	Ind/ Other#	Can’t say#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Gillard	65.5	48	90	11.5	86	44	20.5
Abbott	27.5	37.5	2	77.5	2	42	5
Gillard lead	38	10.5	88	(66)	84	(2)	15.5
Other / Neither	7	14.5	8	11	12	14	74.5
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

	Electors 18+		Analysis by Sex & Age
	June 25-31, 2010	Aug 11/12, 2010	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Gillard	65.5	48	47	49	64	49	42	47
Abbott	27.5	37.5	39.5	35.5	26	36	38	41
Gillard lead	38	10.5	7.5	13.5	38	13	4	6
Other / Neither	7	14.5	13.5	15.5	10	15	20	19
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Approval of Leaders — Julia Gillard v Tony Abbott

Prime Minister: Julia Gillard

Respondents were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Ms. Gillard is handling her job as Prime Minister?”

	Electors 18+		Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	June 25-28, 2010	Aug 11/12, 2010	ALP	L-NP	The Greens	Ind/ Other#	Can’t say#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	48	44	86	19.5	42.5	15	39
Disapprove	24.5	40.5	2	67	45	54.5	25
Approve - Disapprove	23.5	3.5	84	(47.5)	(2.5)	(39.5)	14
Can’t say	27.5	15.5	12	13.5	12.5	30.5	36
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

	Electors 18+		Analysis by Sex & Age
	June 25-28, 2010	Aug 11/12, 2010	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	48	44	43	45.5	34	51	39	48
Disapprove	24.5	40.5	44.5	37.5	37	34.5	45.5	40.5
Approve - Disapprove	23.5	3.5	(1.5)	8	(3)	16.5	(6.5)	7.5
Can’t say	27.5	15.5	12.5	17	29	14.5	15.5	11.5
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Opposition Leader: Tony Abbott

Respondents were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Abbott is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition?”

	Electors 18+		Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	June 25-28, 2010	Aug 11/12, 2010	ALP	L-NP	The Greens	Ind/ Other#	Can’t say#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	38.5	50	29	78	13.5	53	33.5
Disapprove	53.5	39.5	62.5	12	84	34	25.5
Approve - Disapprove	(15)	10.5	(33.5)	66	(70.5)	19	8
Can’t say	8	10.5	8.5	10	2.5	13	41
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

	Electors 18+		Analysis by Sex & Age
	June 25-28, 2010	Aug 11/12, 2010	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	38.5	50	57.5	43.5	44.5	51	50	51
Disapprove	53.5	39.5	37	41.5	42.5	41	42.5	36.5
Approve - Disapprove	(15)	10.5	20.5	2	2	10	7.5	14.5
Can’t say	8	10.5	5.5	15	13	8	8	12.5
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Best Party for handling Electors Concerns - Macqaurie

Which party ‘Better For’ — IMPROVING HEALTH SERVICES & HOSPITALS

	Australia-wide	Macquarie		Analysis by Sex & Age
	July 27/28, 2010	Jan ’08 — June ‘10	Aug 11/12, 2010	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
ALP	51	47	46	46	46	48	46	41	49
L-NP	26	29	35	36	35	24	32	38	38
Greens	3	5	4	6	1	8	5	6	1
Other/Can't say	20	19	15	12	18	20	17	16	12
Enrolled voters	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Which party ‘Better For’ — IMPROVING EDUCATION

	Macquarie		Analysis by Sex & Age
	Jan ’08 — June ‘10	Aug 11/12, 2010	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
ALP	49	49	49	48	41	58	46	49
L-NP	27	31	31	32	19	22	33	36
Greens	6	6	9	4	19	7	5	3
Other/Can't say	18	14	11	16	21	13	16	12
Enrolled voters	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Which party ‘Better For’ — MANAGING THE ECONOMY

	Macquarie		Analysis by Sex & Age
	Jan ’08 — June ‘10	Aug 11/12, 2010	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
ALP	40	38	40	36	46	33	33	41
L-NP	44	49	50	49	40	44	53	51
Greens	2	1	2	1	-	-	3	1
Other/Can't say	14	12	8	14	14	23	11	7
Enrolled voters	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Which party ‘Better For’ — DAY TO DAY LIVING COSTS SUCH AS FOOD, FARES, PETROL, GAS, ELECTRICITY

	Australia-wide	Macquarie	Analysis by Sex & Age
	July 27/28, 2010	Aug 11/12, 2010	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
ALP	34	28	27	29	23	23	29	30
L-NP	34	45	49	41	35	49	45	46
Greens	5	4	5	4	8	3	7	2
Other/Can't say	27	23	19	26	34	26	19	22
Enrolled voters	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Which party ‘Better For’ — REDUCING THE TAXES YOU & YOUR FAMILY PAY

	Australia-wide	Macquarie		Analysis by Sex & Age
	July 27/28, 2010	Jan ’08 — June ‘10	Aug 11/12, 2010	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
ALP	34	45	30	25	34	20	31	29	32
L-NP	39	35	41	46	36	34	39	41	43
Greens	2	3	3	5	2	8	5	3	1
Other/Can't say	25	17	26	24	28	38	25	27	24
Enrolled voters	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Which party ‘Better For’ — REDUCING THE NUMBER OF ILLEGAL BOAT PEOPLE COMING TO AUSTRALIA

	Australia-wide	Macquarie	Analysis by Sex & Age
	July 27/28, 2010	Aug 11/12, 2010	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
ALP	20	17	17	17	18	17	16	17
L-NP	50	56	56	55	57	55	59	54
Greens	3	5	6	4	4	3	5	6
Other/Can't say	27	22	21	24	21	25	20	23
Enrolled voters	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Which party ‘Better For’ — MANAGING IMMIGRATION & POPULATION GROWTH

	Australia-wide	Macquarie	Analysis by Sex & Age
	July 27/28, 2010	Aug 11/12, 2010	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
ALP	32	25	24	25	24	23	22	27
L-NP	43	49	51	47	45	42	53	51
Greens	7	11	10	11	19	10	12	8
Other/Can't say	18	15	15	17	12	25	13	14
Enrolled voters	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Main Issue that concerns Macquarie electors

Electors were asked: "Which one issue concerns you the most?"

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Aug 11/12, 2010	ALP	LNP	The Greens	Ind/ Other#	Can’t say#
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Health services	28	40	19	33	40	20
Improving education	14	18	7	30	7	22
TOTAL Health & Education	43	57	26	63	47	43
Managing the economy	23	13	35	15	6	20
Day-to-day living costs	16	1	16	11	13	22
Reducing taxes	3	1	5	-	-	-
TOTAL Economy, taxes & costs	41	32	55	26	19	43
Reducing the number of illegal boat people	6	5	9	4	-	5
Managing immigration	6	4	6	5	20	-
TOTAL Boat people & immigration	12	9	15	9	20	5
None/ Can’t say	4	2	5	2	14	10
TOTAL	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Sex & Age
	Aug 11/12, 2010	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Health services	28	22	34	16	28	23	35
Improving education	14	15	13	23	20	13	11
TOTAL Health & Education	43	38	47	39	48	36	46
Managing the economy	23	32	14	20	19	28	22
Day-to-day living costs	16	12	20	33	21	15	10
Reducing taxes	3	2	3	-	2	5	1
TOTAL Economy, taxes & costs	41	46	37	53	42	49	34
Reducing the number of illegal boat people	6	7	6	6	5	4	8
Managing immigration	6	5	6	3	2	7	7
TOTAL Boat people & immigration	12	12	12	9	7	11	15
None/ Can’t say	4	5	4	-	3	4	6
TOTAL	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

First or Second Issue that concerns electors in Macquarie

Electors were then asked: "And which one next?"

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Aug 11/12, 2010	ALP	LNP	The Greens	Ind/ Other#	Can’t say#
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Health services	52	64	41	64	53	41
Improving education	35	50	14	63	26	49
TOTAL Health & Education	66	81	50	89	60	65
Managing the economy	37	27	51	22	13	30
Day-to-day living costs	32	31	36	25	27	28
Reducing taxes	11	9	14	3	-	17
TOTAL Economy, taxes & costs	63	54	79	45	41	55
Reducing the number of illegal boat people	14	9	21	10	14	5
Managing immigration	11	5	14	7	41	5
TOTAL Boat people & immigration	23	13	32	12	47	5
None/ Can’t say	6	4	5	5	14	15
TOTAL	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.
*This table adds to more than 100% as most electors named two issues.

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Sex & Age
	Aug 11/12, 2010	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Health services	52	43	60	33	52	53	55
Improving education	35	33	37	48	41	33	31
TOTAL Health & Education	66	60	73	59	67	70	66
Managing the economy	37	44	30	29	42	37	37
Day-to-day living costs	32	34	30	48	37	5	25
Reducing taxes	11	12	9	15	11	13	7
TOTAL Economy, taxes & costs	63	68	59	69	69	67	58
Reducing the number of illegal boat people	14	13	15	18	7	12	17
Managing immigration	11	10	11	10	5	7	15
TOTAL Boat people & immigration	23	21	24	22	12	17	29
None/ Can’t say	6	7	4	-	3	6	8
TOTAL	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

*This table adds to more than 100% as most electors named two issues.

QUEENSLAND

Leichhardt (Far North Queensland — Cairns, Cooktown, Cape York, Torres Strait)

(Projected: L-NP gain)

Primary Voting Intention

	2007 Federal Election November 24, 2007*	Telephone Morgan Poll
		June 25-30, 2010	Aug. 11/12, 2010
	%	%	%
ALP	43.1	37.5	33.5
LNP	42.6	39.5	48
Greens	7.5	14.5	14.5
Independents/ Others	6.8	8.5	4
Total	100	100	100

*The Primary Voting Intention results from the 2007 Federal Election are taken from the boundaries used at the 2007 Federal Election.

Two-Party Preferred

	2007 Federal Election November 24, 2007*	Telephone Morgan Poll			Change 2007 Election — Present	Analysis by Gender
		June 25-30, 2010	Aug. 11/12, 2010			Men	Women
	%	%		%	%	%	%
ALP	54.1	54		47.5	-6.6	41	53.5
LNP	45.9	46		52.5	+6.6	59	46.5
Total	100	100		100		100	100

*The Two-Party Preferred results for the 2007 Federal Election have been recalculated taking into account boundary changes undertaken at the 2009 Queensland redistribution.
In Leichhardt, 309 electors were polled on August 11/12, 2010. In addition, 206 electors were polled on June 25 — July 1, 2010. Of all electors surveyed on August 11/12, 2010, 4.5% (up 0.5%) of electors did not nominate a party.

Better Prime Minister: Gillard v Abbott

Respondents were asked: “Thinking of Ms. Gillard and Mr. Abbott. In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister — Ms. Gillard or Mr. Abbott?”

	Electors 18+		Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	June 25-28, 2010	Aug 11/12, 2010	ALP	LNP	The Greens	Ind/ Other#	Can’t say#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Gillard	52.5	47.5	88.5	7.5	91	31	48.5
Abbott	26.5	36.5	3	73	2	41.5	-
Gillard lead	26	11	85.5	(65.5)	89	(11.5)	48.5
Other / Neither	21	16	8.5	19.5	7	27.5	51.5
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

	Electors 18+		Analysis by Sex & Age
	June 25-28, 2010	Aug 3, 2010	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Gillard	52.5	47.5	40.5	54	54	47.5	50.5	43.5
Abbott	26.5	36.5	44	29	35	31.5	36.5	39
Gillard lead	26	11	(3.5)	25	19	16	14	4.5
Other / Neither	21	16	15.5	17	11	21	13	17.5
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Approval of Leaders — Julia Gillard v Tony Abbott

Prime Minister: Julia Gillard

Respondents were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Ms. Gillard is handling her job as Prime Minister?”

	Electors 18+		Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	June 25-28, 2010	Aug 11/12, 2010	ALP	LNP	The Greens	Ind/ Other#	Can’t say#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	38.5	47.5	78	20.5	60	53	59
Disapprove	29	39.5	10	65.5	33	39	8
Approve - Disapprove	9.5	8	68	(45)	27	14	51
Can’t say	32.5	13	12	14	17	8	33
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

	Electors 18+		Analysis by Sex & Age
	June 25-28, 2010	Aug 11/12, 2010	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	38.5	47.5	42.5	52	57.5	48	45.5	46
Disapprove	29	39.5	46	33.5	38.5	34	41.5	41
Approve - Disapprove	9.5	8	(3.5)	18.5	19	14	4	5
Can’t say	32.5	13	11.5	14.5	4	18	13	13
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Opposition Leader: Tony Abbott

Respondents were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Abbott is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition?”

	Electors 18+		Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	June 25-28, 2010	Aug 11/12, 2010	ALP	LNP	The Greens	Ind/ Other#	Can’t say#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	42.5	45	23.5	70	19	49.5	15.5
Disapprove	46	43	66.5	17	76	35	54
Approve - Disapprove	(3.5)	2	(43)	53	(57)	14.5	(38.5)
Can’t say	11.5	12	10	13	5	15.5	30.5
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

	Electors 18+		Analysis by Sex & Age
	June 25-28, 2010	Aug 11/12, 2010	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	42.5	45	48.5	42	38.5	36.5	43.5	51
Disapprove	46	43	42.5	44	58	42.5	44.5	39
Approve - Disapprove	(3.5)	2	6	(2)	(19.5)	(6)	(1)	12
Can’t say	11.5	12	9	14	3.5	21	12	10
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Best Party for handling Electors Concerns - Leichhardt

Which party ‘Better For’ — MANAGING THE ECONOMY

	Leichhardt		Analysis by Sex & Age
	Jan ’08 — June ‘10	Aug 11/12, 2010	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
ALP	40	38	33	42	31	44	42	34
L-NP	42	48	55	41	46	43	41	55
Greens	1	4	4	4	4	6	4	3
Other/Can't say	17	10	8	13	19	7	13	8
Enrolled voters	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Which party ‘Better For’ — DAY TO DAY LIVING COSTS SUCH AS FOOD, FARES, PETROL, GAS, ELECTRICITY

	Australia-wide	Leichhardt	Analysis by Sex & Age
	July 27/28, 2010	Aug 11/12, 2010	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
ALP	34	32	31	34	35	40	33	28
L-NP	34	36	41	32	31	22	35	45
Greens	5	8	8	9	15	14	6	6
Other/Can't say	27	24	20	25	19	24	26	21
Enrolled voters	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Which party ‘Better For’ — REDUCING THE TAXES YOU & YOUR FAMILY PAY

	Australia-wide	Leichhardt		Analysis by Sex & Age
	July 27/28, 2010	Jan ’08 — June ‘10	Aug 11/12, 2010	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
ALP	34	44	30	26	34	15	42	30	28
L-NP	39	35	41	47	36	54	34	37	44
Greens	2	2	4	3	5	4	7	4	2
Other/Can't say	25	19	25	24	25	27	17	29	26
Enrolled voters	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100