Home |  site-map |  indonesia |  indonesian-single-source-articles |  asteroid-user-registration |

Roy Morgan OZ Panel Login  |  Mail Diary Panel Login |   careers |  contact-us |

Today, Saturday August 14, 2010, the ALP is seen as better than the L-NP for Improving Health Services and Hospitals (ALP 45%; L-NP 32%) and Improving Education (ALP 48%: L-NP 31%). Just over a third (35%) of electors name either health or education as the single issue that concerns them most.

However the L-NP is seen as better on the important economic issues — better for Managing the Economy (L-NP 45%: ALP 35%), Reducing the Taxes You and your Family Pay (L-NP 39%: ALP 31%) and Day-to-day Living Costs (L-NP 37%: ALP 32%). The majority (50.5%) of Australian electors name one of the three economic issues as the single issue that concerns them most.

On the issue that had so much coverage early in the election campaign — Illegal Boat People and Immigration the L-NP is clearly seen as better — better for Reducing the Number of Illegal Boat People coming to Australia (L-NP 55%; ALP 16%); and better for  Managing Immigration and Population Growth (L-NP 46%: ALP 28%). Although only 10% of electors name one of these as their single biggest concern, more than 1-in-5 (21.5%) name one of them in their top two concerns.

Only a week out from the election, the relativities and trends in these important issues are critical to understanding the changes being seen in the way Australian electors are intending to vote next Saturday.

Today’s Morgan Poll shows the ALP still ahead but with only a 2 point lead (ALP 51% to L-NP 49%).

Compared to July 26/27, 2010 when the ALP enjoyed a 6 point lead in the 2PP vote (ALP 53% to L-NP 47%), the ALP has lost ground to the L-NP on Health (down 6% to 45%), Reducing Taxes (down 2% to 32%), Day-to-day Living Costs (down 2% to 32%), Boat People (down 4% to 16%) and Immigration (down 4% to 28%).

Improving Education and Managing the Economy were not surveyed in the July 26/27, 2010 Morgan Poll.

The Morgan Polling in the key marginal seats of Macquarie (NSW) and Leichhardt (Qld) also showed Labor losing ground since July 26/27, 2010 to the Coalition on a Two-Party Preferred basis and all issues except education.

In Brand (WA) where the Labor Party has gained on most issues — except taxation (due to the mining taxes) the seat looks as if it will be held by Labor. Details released tomorrow on Insiders (ABC1) — 9am Sunday August 15, 2010.

Polling between these two dates, July 26/27, 2010 and August 14, 2010, showed substantial volatility - driven largely by party political and leader issues. Perceptions of disunity in the Labor Party and electors’ anger over the way Julia Gillard became Prime Minister drove the Labor vote down; at various times concerns about both Leaders’ personal qualities and performance issues were reflected in changing Leader approval levels and Party support. As recently as last weekend, which promised a Rudd/ Gillard reconciliation and a pledge to campaign together in Queensland, the ALP vote spiked, but was short lived due to extremely poor publicity surrounding their Brisbane meeting.

All indications, on both issues and voting intention, nationally and in the crucial marginals, show that there is a strong move to the Coalition. Today, the outcome of the election next Saturday is looking like a hung Parliament.

However if the trend to the L-NP continues the Coalition will win.

This telephone Morgan Poll on important issues of concern to electors was conducted today, August 14, 2010 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 966 electors.

Electors were asked about 7 Key Issues: “Which party, or parties, would be better for each of the following issues?”

Which party ‘Better For’ — IMPROVING HEALTH SERVICES & HOSPITALS

	Aug ‘09	Sep ‘09	Oct ‘09	Nov ‘09	Dec ‘09	Jan ‘10	Feb ‘10	Mar ‘10	Apr ‘10	May ‘10	Jun ‘10	July 27/28, ‘10	Aug 14, ‘10
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
ALP	47	48	46	45	45	40	45	44	42	48	45	51	45
L-NP	30	29	29	31	31	37	31	33	31	29	34	26	32
Greens	3	5	4	5	4	5	4	3	5	4	4	3	5
Other/Can't Say	22	23	25	21	24	22	25	23	25	22	21	20	18
Enrolled voters	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Electors were allowed to nominate more than 1 party for each issue.

	Australia-wide	Analysis by Sex & Age
	Aug 14, ‘10	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
ALP	45	44	45	43	44	45	45
L-NP	32	33	31	31	33	31	33
Greens	5	6	3	8	4	5	4
Other/Can't Say	18	17	21	18	19	19	18
Enrolled voters	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Which party ‘Better For’ — IMPROVING EDUCATION

	Aug ‘09	Sep ‘09	Oct ‘09	Nov ‘09	Dec ‘09	Jan ‘10	Feb ‘10	Mar ‘10	Apr ‘10	May ‘10	Jun ‘10	Aug 14, ‘10
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
ALP	46	48	50	49	47	42	46	47	43	46	42	48
L-NP	32	30	28	29	30	36	31	31	32	29	36	31
Greens	3	4	4	5	3	5	4	3	4	3	4	4
Other/Can't Say	21	22	22	20	23	22	24	23	25	25	22	17
Enrolled voters	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Electors were allowed to nominate more than 1 party for each issue.

	Australia-wide	Analysis by Sex & Age
	Aug 14, ‘10	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
ALP	48	50	47	42	50	52	47
L-NP	31	31	32	32	27	30	34
Greens	4	4	4	5	3	4	4
Other/Can't Say	17	15	17	21	20	14	15
Enrolled voters	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Which party ‘Better For’ — MANAGING THE ECONOMY

	Aug ‘09	Sep ‘09	Oct ‘09	Nov ‘09	Dec ‘09	Jan ‘10	Feb ‘10	Mar ‘10	Apr ‘10	May ‘10	Jun ‘10	Aug 14, ‘10
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
ALP	37	41	41	42	38	35	37	38	33	37	31	35
L-NP	44	42	42	42	45	48	45	45	46	42	50	45
Greens	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	2	3	3	2	3
Other/Can't Say	18	20	18	16	18	18	20	19	21	21	19	17
Enrolled voters	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Electors were allowed to nominate more than 1 party for each issue.

	Australia-wide	Analysis by Sex & Age
	Aug 14, ‘10	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
ALP	35	33	37	32	40	34	35
L-NP	45	49	42	43	44	46	46
Greens	3	3	3	7	1	2	3
Other/Can't Say	17	15	18	18	15	18	16
Enrolled voters	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Which party ‘Better For’ — REDUCING THE TAXES YOU & YOUR FAMILY PAY

	Aug ‘09	Sep ‘09	Oct ‘09	Nov ‘09	Dec ‘09	Jan ‘10	Feb ‘10	Mar ‘10	Apr ‘10	May ‘10	Jun ‘10	July 27/28, ‘10	Aug 14, ‘10
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
ALP	41	41	40	41	38	35	38	37	36	39	35	34	31
L-NP	36	34	37	37	38	40	36	39	37	37	42	39	39
Greens	3	2	2	2	2	2	3	2	4	3	2	2	3
Other/Can't Say	22	26	24	21	24	25	25	24	26	24	23	25	27
Enrolled voters	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Electors were allowed to nominate more than 1 party for each issue.

	Australia-wide	Analysis by Sex & Age
	Aug 14, ‘10	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
ALP	31	30	33	35	35	33	29
L-NP	39	42	37	41	40	36	40
Greens	3	3	3	6	5	2	3
Other/Can't Say	27	25	27	18	20	29	28
Enrolled voters	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Which party ‘Better For’ — DAY TO DAY LIVING COSTS - FOOD, FARES, PETROL, GAS, ELECTRICITY

	July 27/28, ‘10	Aug 14, ‘10
	%	%
ALP	34	32
L-NP	34	37
Greens	5	5
Other/Can't Say	27	26
Enrolled voters	100	100

	Australia-wide	Analysis by Sex & Age
	Aug 14, ‘10	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
ALP	32	30	33	29	35	31	32
L-NP	37	41	34	42	36	38	36
Greens	5	4	5	11	2	5	3
Other/Can't Say	26	25	28	18	17	26	29
Enrolled voters	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Which party ‘Better For’ — REDUCING THE NUMBER OF ILLEGAL BOAT PEOPLE COMING TO AUSTRALIA

	July 27/28, ‘10	Aug 14, ‘10
	%	%
ALP	20	16
L-NP	50	55
Greens	3	4
Other/Can't Say	27	25
Enrolled voters	100	100

	Australia-wide	Analysis by Sex & Age
	Aug 14, ‘10	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
ALP	16	13	18	12	16	17	16
L-NP	55	57	54	59	53	55	56
Greens	4	4	4	9	4	3	3
Other/Can't Say	25	26	24	20	27	25	25
Enrolled voters	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Which party ‘Better For’ — MANAGING IMMIGRATION & POPULATION GROWTH

	July 27/28, ‘10	Aug 14, ‘10
	%	%
ALP	32	28
L-NP	43	46
Greens	7	8
Other/Can't Say	18	18
Enrolled voters	100	100

	Australia-wide	Analysis by Sex & Age
	Aug 14, ‘10	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
ALP	28	27	29	30	29	25	30
L-NP	46	46	45	41	42	49	46
Greens	8	10	6	8	9	7	7
Other/Can't Say	18	17	20	21	20	19	17
Enrolled voters	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Main Issue that concerns electors

Electors were asked: "Which one issue concerns you the most?"

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Aug 14, ‘10	ALP	L-NP	The Greens	Ind/ Other#	Can’t say#
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Managing the economy	27.5	20	39.5	11	22	23.5
Day-to-day living costs	19	18	19.5	14	37.5	29.5
Reducing taxes	4.5	4	5.5	4	1	1.5
TOTAL Economy, taxes & costs	50.5	41.5	64.5	28	60	54.5
Health services	24.5	31	17	38	12	10.5
Improving education	10.5	13	5	20	6	13.5
TOTAL Health & Education	35	44	22	58	18	24.5
Reducing the number of illegal boat people	7	6	7.5	3	6.5	13
Managing immigration	3.5	4	3	3	3.5	3.5
TOTAL Boat people & immigration	10	10	10.5	5.5	10	16.5
None/ Can’t say	4.5	4.5	3	8.5	12	4.5
TOTAL	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Sex & Age
	Aug 14, ‘10	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Managing the economy	27.5	33	22.5	20.5	22	28.5	30
Day-to-day living costs	19	17.5	20.5	29.5	25	20.5	13.5
Reducing taxes	4.5	4.5	4	9.5	5	5.5	2
TOTAL Economy, taxes & costs	50.5	55	47	59.5	52	54.5	45.5
Health services	24.5	20	28.5	17	22	18	30.5
Improving education	10.5	9.5	11	13.5	15	12.5	7
TOTAL Health & Education	35	30	39.5	30.5	37	30.5	37.5
Reducing the number of illegal boat people	7	7	6.5	2	4	7	8.5
Managing immigration	3.5	3	4	1	4.5	4	3
TOTAL Boat people & immigration	10	9.5	10.5	3	8.5	11.5	11.5
None/ Can’t say	4.5	5.5	3	7	2.5	3.5	5.5
TOTAL	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

First or Second Issue that concerns electors

Electors were then asked: "And which one next?"

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Aug 14, ‘10	ALP	L-NP	The Greens	Ind/ Other#	Can’t say#
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Managing the economy	43	35	55	29	50.5	30.5
Day-to-day living costs	36	35.5	36	30.5	42.5	44.5
Reducing taxes	14.5	13.5	18	9.5	5	14.5
TOTAL Economy, taxes & costs	73.5	71	81	55.5	75	74.5
Health services	46	52.5	40	56	42	30.5
Improving education	27.5	33	17	44.5	21	34.5
TOTAL Health & Education	61.5	70.5	50.5	74	60.5	57.5
Reducing the number of illegal boat people	15.5	12	20	6.5	6.5	24.5
Managing immigration	8	8.5	8	6	8.5	11.5
TOTAL Boat people & immigration	21.5	18	26.5	11.5	15	32.5
None/ Can’t say	4.5	4.5	2.5	8	12	5
TOTAL	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.
*This table adds to more than 100% as most electors named two issues.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:           Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:        Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

© 2012 Roy Morgan Research. All Rights Reserved
privacy-statement