Labor (51%, down 6.5%) just ahead of Coalition (49%, up 6.5%)
Federal Election set to hinge on last week of Campaign
As released on 7News at 6pm tonight
| Finding No. 4559 -
This telephone Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted today, August 14, 2010 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 966 electors. Of all electors surveyed, 5.5% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.:
August 14, 2010 |
Today the ALP is at 51% (down 6.5% since the Face-to-Face Morgan Poll conducted on the weekend of August 7/8, 2010) holding a slim Two-Party preferred lead over the L-NP today 49% (up 6.5%) as the last week of campaigning before next Saturday’s Federal Election begins according to today’s special telephone Morgan Poll - conducted this Saturday (August 14, 2010).
This special telephone Morgan Poll finds the ALP primary vote had fallen to 40.5% (down 2.5%) clearly behind the L-NP 44% (up 7%), while the Greens 12.5% (down 3%), Family First 1% (down 1%) and Independents/ Others 2% (down 0.5%).
Morgan Poll Voting Trend (July 20/21 — August 7/8, 2010)
| |
Phone |
Face-to-Face |
Phone |
Face-to-Face |
Phone |
Face-to-Face |
Phone |
| |
July 20/21 |
July 24/25 |
July 27/28 |
July 31/
August 1 |
August 3 |
August 7/8 |
August 14 |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
ALP |
55.5 |
55.5 |
53 |
53 |
50 |
57.5 |
51 |
|
L-NP |
44.5 |
44.5 |
47 |
47 |
50 |
42.5 |
49 |
|
ALP Lead |
11% |
11% |
6% |
6% |
- |
15% |
2% |
Analysis by Gender
Analysis by gender reveals the ‘gender gap’ that has worked in Gillard’s favour has almost completely disappeared with women slightly favouring the ALP (52%) cf. L-NP (48%) while men are evenly split — ALP (50%) cf. L-NP (50%).
Analysis by State
Analysis by State reveals the L-NP leads in the key States of New South Wales (52.5% cf. 47.5%); Queensland (53.5% cf. 46.5%) and Western Australia (52.5% cf. 47.5%). The ALP continues to lead strongly in Victoria (58.5% cf. 41.5%) and also leads narrowly in South Australia (52% cf. 48%) and Tasmania (52.5% cf. 47.5%).
Analysing these results shows that if the Federal Election had been held today it would have been decided in the marginal seats in NSW, Queensland and WA — and would most likely have resulted in a hung Parliament. The Country Liberal Party (L-NP) should also pick up the Northern Territory seat of Solomon — lost at the 2007 Federal Election. In addition, the Greens would probably win Melbourne and there would be three right-leaning Independents — two from NSW and one from Queensland.
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 116 (down 10.5pts), with 51% (down 3% since August 7/8, 2010) of Australians confident that Australia is ‘heading in the right direction,’ compared to 35% (up 7.5%) that say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction.’ The latest weekly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for the weekend of August 7/8, 2010 was at 129.0 (up 4.8pts).
Gary Morgan says:
“Timing is everything. Roy Morgan picked the highest point for Labor last weekend (ALP 57.5% to L-NP 42.5%). Both Nielsen and Newspoll polled during the week - Nielsen: ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47% conducted Tuesday to Thursday; and Newspoll surveyed marginal seats Monday to Thursday. Both showed the Labor vote had come down from the high of the weekend.
“Today’s special telephone Morgan Poll shows the ALP 51% (down 6.5% since the Face-to-Face Morgan Poll conducted last weekend on August 7/8, 2010) now just ahead of the L-NP 49% (up 6.5%) on a Two-Party preferred basis.
“The positive ALP publicity in the lead up to last weekend’s Rudd/Gillard reconciliation including their pledge to campaign together in Queensland (last weekend’s Morgan Poll showed the ALP leapt ahead — 57.5% cf. 42.5%) has been quickly forgotten due to extremely poor publicity surrounding their Brisbane meeting — clearly ‘stage managed’ with only one photographer and one journalist allowed to attend their short meeting which resulted in 30 seconds of uneventful TV footage showing them uncomfortable in each other’s presence - followed by no joint Queensland campaigning.
“The significant publicity surrounding Rudd’s acceptance of a job with the United Nations — obviously treating his future role in Parliament as a part-time commitment, and former Labor Leader Mark Latham’s confrontation with Prime Minister Julia Gillard soon resulted in any message of Labor Party unity and ‘Moving Australia Forward’ being completely dissipated.
“Julia Gillard’s higher approval rating and image of being the better Prime Minister (over Opposition Leader Tony Abbott) appears unlikely to overcome widespread disunity in the Labor Party, past wasteful Government spending and the poor standing of the Queensland & New South Wales State Labor Governments.
“The Federal Election is set to be close (it could end up being a ‘hung’ Parliament) and either party can still win however the electorate believes the Greens will control the Senate (Greens are attracting disenchanted ALP votes because of their handling of environmental issues and the ETS issue and their humanitarian position regarding ‘boat’ people), and the ALP will lose a significant number of seats in Queensland and New South Wales. In addition, extra polling done today in the Northern Territory indicates the Country Liberal Party (L-NP) should pick up the seat of Solomon, centred on Darwin, which the ALP had won at the 2007 Election.
“Julia Gillard’s $2.6 billion election rail link will be seen by many as blatant (financially absurd) pork-barrelling in the seat of Bennelong. It has probably ‘stripped’ her of any credibility on economic matters — such as managing the economy, minimising rises in day-to-day living costs or reducing taxes — and ‘linked’ her to the financially incompetent NSW State Government.”
“Tomorrow Roy Morgan will release Marginal seat Morgan Poll results on Insiders (ABC) from key marginal seats in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia. The results in these seats will decide next Saturday’s Federal Election.”
Electors were asked: “If a Federal Election for the House of Representatives were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?”
This telephone Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted today, August 14, 2010 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 966 electors. Of all electors surveyed, 5.5% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.
For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094
Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093
FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)
| |
|
|
The |
Family |
Ind./ |
| |
ALP |
L-NP |
Greens |
First#* |
Others |
|
RECENT ELECTION RESULTS |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Election March 2, 1996 |
38.8 |
47.3 (8.6) |
1.7 |
0 |
12.2 |
|
Election October 3^, 1998 |
40.1 |
39.5 (5.3) |
2.1 |
0 |
18.3 |
|
Election November 10, 2001 |
37.8 |
43 (5.6) |
4.4 |
0 |
13.8 |
|
Election October 9, 2004 |
37.6 |
46.4 (5.9) |
7.2 |
2.0 |
6.8 |
|
Election November 24, 2007 |
43.4 |
42.1 (5.9) |
7.8 |
2.0 |
4.7 |
|
MORGAN POLL |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dec 5/6, 2007 (Phone) |
49 |
36.5 (3.5) |
7 |
1.5 |
6 |
|
Dec 1/2 & 8/9, 2007 (Face : Face) |
49.5 |
34 (2.5) |
10.5 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
|
Jan 5/6 & 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
33 (2.5) |
8 |
2 |
5.5 |
|
Jan 23/24, 2008 (Phone) |
53 |
32 (2) |
10 |
1 |
4 |
|
Jan 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face) |
49 |
36 (3) |
8.5 |
1.5 |
5 |
|
Jan 30/31, 2008 (Phone) |
50 |
34.5 (3) |
8 |
1 |
6.5 |
|
Feb 2/3 & 9/10, 2008 (Face : Face) |
54 |
33 (3) |
7.5 |
1.5 |
4 |
|
Feb 16/17 & 23/24, 2008 (Face : Face) |
56.5 |
31.5 (3) |
6.5 |
1.5 |
4 |
|
Mar 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face) |
55.5 |
30.5 (2.5) |
9 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
|
Mar 11/12, 2008 (Phone) |
53.5 |
34 (2.5) |
5.5 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
|
Mar 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face) |
55 |
31 (2) |
7 |
3 |
4 |
|
Mar 26/27 & Apr 2/3, 2008 (Phone) |
51 |
34 (2) |
7.5 |
2 |
5.5 |
|
Apr 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face) |
53.5 |
33.5 (2) |
7.5 |
1.5 |
4 |
|
Apr 9/10, 2008 (Phone) |
54 |
32 (3) |
8.5 |
1 |
4.5 |
|
Apr 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
54 |
33.5 (4.5) |
6.5 |
1 |
5 |
|
Apr 16/17, 2008 (Phone) |
55 |
33 (2.5) |
6 |
1 |
5 |
|
Apr 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face) |
54.5 |
33.5 (3.5) |
5.5 |
2.5 |
4 |
|
May 3/4, 2008(Face : Face) |
52.5 |
32.5 (2) |
8 |
2 |
5 |
|
May 7-11, 2008(Phone) |
47 |
37 (2.5) |
9 |
1 |
6 |
|
May 17/18, 2008 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
35 (2.5) |
8.5 |
1 |
4 |
|
May 24/25, 2008 (Face : Face) |
53 |
34 (3) |
5.5 |
2.5 |
5 |
|
May 31 - June 1, 2008 (Face : Face) |
52.5 |
31.5 (2.5) |
9 |
2 |
5 |
|
June 4-9, 2008 (Phone) |
45.5 |
38.5 (2) |
8.5 |
1.5 |
6 |
|
June 7/8, 2008 (Face : Face) |
48.5 |
36 (3) |
8.5 |
2 |
5 |
|
June 14/15 & 21/22, 2008 (Face : Face) |
52 |
34 (2) |
8 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
|
June 28/29 & July 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face) |
48.5 |
35 (2.5) |
8 |
2.5 |
6 |
|
July 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
48 |
34.5 (2.5) |
11.5 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
|
July 19/20, 2008 (Face : Face) |
45.5 |
39.5 (2) |
7.5 |
2 |
5.5 |
|
July 26/27 & August 2/3, 2008 (Face : Face) |
45.5 |
39.5 (2.5) |
8 |
1.5 |
6 |
|
August 9/10 & 16/17, 2008 (Face : Face) |
47 |
37.5 (4) |
8.5 |
2 |
5 |
|
August 23/24 & 30/31, 2008 (Face : Face) |
50 |
37 (3) |
6.5 |
2 |
4.5 |
|
September 6/7 & 13/14, 2008 (Face : Face) |
45 |
38 (3.5) |
8 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
| |
|
Malcolm Turnbull replaces Brendan Nelson as Leader of Opposition on September 15, 2008 |
| |
|
September 24/25, 2008 (Phone) |
46.5 |
38.5 (3) |
8 |
2.5 |
4.5 |
|
September 20/21 & 27/28, 2008 (Face : Face) |
46.5 |
36.5 (3.5) |
10 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
|
October 8/9, 2008 (Phone) |
46.5 |
36 (2) |
9.5 |
3 |
5 |
|
October 4/5 & 11/12, 2008 (Face : Face) |
46 |
36 (2.5) |
9.5 |
2.5 |
6 |
|
October 15/16, 2008 (Phone) |
48 |
38 (2) |
8 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
|
October 18/19 & 25/26, 2008 (Face : Face) |
46.5 |
37.5 (2.5) |
8.5 |
2 |
5.5 |
|
November 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face) |
49 |
36 (3) |
8.5 |
2 |
4.5 |
|
November 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face) |
50.5 |
35.5 (2) |
7.5 |
2 |
4.5 |
|
November 29/30 & December 6/7, 2008 (Face : Face) |
48.5 |
34.5 (2.5) |
10.5 |
1.5 |
5 |
|
December 13/14 & 20/21, 2008 (Face : Face) |
52.5 |
35.5 (3) |
6 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
|
January 3/4 & 10/11, 2009 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
35 (4) |
8 |
1.5 |
4 |
|
January 17/18 & 24/25, 2009 (Face : Face) |
50.5 |
36 (2) |
7.5 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
|
January 31 & February 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
46.5 |
38 (4) |
8 |
2.5 |
5 |
|
February 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
35.5 (3.5) |
8 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
|
February 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
49 |
36.5 (3.5) |
7.5 |
1 |
6 |
|
February 21/22 & 28/ March 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
33 (2.5) |
8.5 |
2.5 |
4.5 |
|
March 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
50.5 |
34.5 (3) |
8 |
2 |
5 |
|
March 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
48.5 |
39 (3) |
6 |
1.5 |
5 |
|
March 21/22 & 28/29, 2009 (Face : Face) |
53 |
33.5 (3) |
8 |
1.5 |
4 |
|
April 4/5 & 11/12, 2009 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
33.5 (2.5) |
8 |
2 |
5 |
|
April 18/19 & 25/26, 2009 (Face : Face) |
50 |
36.5 (2) |
8.5 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
|
May 2/3 & 9/10, 2009 (Face : Face) |
50 |
34 (2) |
9 |
2.5 |
4.5 |
|
May 16/17, 2009 (Face : Face) |
49.5 |
37.5 (1.5) |
8 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
|
May 20/21, 2009 (Phone) |
45 |
40.5 (4) |
7.5 |
1 |
6 |
|
May 23/24 & 30/31, 2009 (Face : Face) |
49 |
36 (2.5) |
8 |
2 |
5 |
|
June 3/4, 2009 (Phone) |
43.5 |
39.5 (3.5) |
9 |
2.5 |
5.5 |
|
June 10/11, 2009 (Phone) |
47 |
37 (2.5) |
8.5 |
2.5 |
5 |
|
June 6/7 & 13/14, 2009 (Face : Face) |
48.5 |
38 (3) |
7 |
2.5 |
4 |
|
June 20/21, 2009 (Face : Face) |
46 |
41 (3.5) |
8.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
|
July 1/2, 2009 (Phone) |
46 |
39 (2.5) |
8 |
1 |
6 |
|
June 27/28 & July 4/5, 2009 (Face : Face) |
46.5 |
35 (3) |
11.5 |
2.5 |
4.5 |
|
July 11/12 & 18/19, 2009 (Face : Face) |
48 |
37.5 (3) |
8 |
2 |
4.5 |
|
July 25/26 & August 1/2, 2009 (Face : Face) |
50.5 |
34 (2.5) |
8.5 |
2 |
5 |
|
August 5/6, 2009 (Phone) |
45.5 |
37.5 (3) |
11 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
|
August 8/9 & 15/16, 2009 (Face : Face) |
47.5 |
34.5 (3) |
9.5 |
2.5 |
6 |
|
August 22/23 & 29/30, 2009 (Face : Face) |
50.5 |
33.5 (3.5) |
9.5 |
2 |
4.5 |
|
September 5/6 & 12/13, 2009 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
32.5 (3.5) |
9.5 |
2 |
4.5 |
|
September 19/20 & 26/27, 2009 (Face : Face) |
51 |
35.5 (2.5) |
7.5 |
2 |
4 |
|
October 7/8, 2009 (Phone) |
46.5 |
37 (4.5) |
10.5 |
1 |
5 |
|
October 3/4 & 10/11, 2009 (Face : Face) |
49.5 |
34 (2.5) |
9 |
2.5 |
5 |
|
October 17/18 & 24/25, 2009 (Face : Face) |
52 |
34.5 (3) |
7.5 |
2 |
4 |
|
October 31 & November 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
51 |
32.5 (2.5) |
9.5 |
2 |
5 |
|
November 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
46.5 |
38.5 (3) |
8 |
2 |
5 |
|
November 11/12, 2009 (Phone) |
42.5 |
41.5 (4) |
8 |
1 |
7 |
|
November 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
45 |
36.5 (4) |
9 |
3 |
6.5 |
|
November 21/22, 2009 (Face : Face) |
48 |
35.5 (2) |
9 |
1.5 |
6 |
|
November 28/29, 2009 (Face : Face) |
47 |
35 (3.5) |
9.5 |
3 |
5.5 |
| |
|
Tony Abbott replaces Malcolm Turnbull as Leader of Opposition on December 1, 2009 |
| |
|
December 2/3, 2009 (Phone) |
41 |
43 (3.5) |
10.5 |
1.5 |
4 |
|
December 4-9, 2009 (Phone) |
42 |
41.5 (2) |
9.5 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
|
December 5/6 & 12/13, 2009 (Face : Face) |
49 |
35.5 (2) |
8 |
1.5 |
6 |
|
December 19/20, 2009 & January 2/3, 2010 (Face : Face) |
45.5 |
37 (2.5) |
10 |
2 |
5.5 |
|
January 13/14, 2010 (Phone) |
43 |
39 (3) |
9.5 |
1.5 |
7 |
|
January 9/10 & 16/17, 2010 (Face : Face) |
47.5 |
35.5 (3.5) |
10 |
2 |
5 |
|
January 23/24 & 30/31, 2010 (Face : Face) |
46 |
38 (3) |
8.5 |
1.5 |
6 |
|
February 10/11, 2010 (Phone) |
42 |
41 (4.5) |
10.5 |
1 |
5.5 |
|
February 6/7 & 13/14, 2010 (Face : Face) |
47 |
37 (2.5) |
9 |
2 |
5 |
|
February 20/21, 2010 (Face : Face) |
45 |
37.5 (3) |
9 |
2.5 |
6 |
|
February 27/28 & March 6/7, 2010 (Face : Face) |
45 |
38.5 (2.5) |
8.5 |
2 |
6 |
|
March 13/14 & 20/21, 2010 (Face : Face) |
44.5 |
37 (2) |
11 |
2 |
5.5 |
|
March 27/28 & April 3/4, 2010 (Face : Face) |
48 |
36.5 (2) |
8.5 |
2.5 |
4.5 |
|
April 10/11 & 17/18, 2010 (Face : Face) |
43 |
37.5 (3) |
12 |
2 |
5.5 |
|
April 24/25, 2010 (Face : Face) |
44 |
40.5 (3.5) |
8 |
2.5 |
5 |
|
May 1/2, 2010 (Face : Face) |
43.5 |
40 (3) |
9 |
2.5 |
5 |
|
May 4/5, 2010 (Phone) |
39.5 |
44.5 (2.5) |
9 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
|
May 8/9, 2010 (Face : Face) |
41 |
42.5 (3.5) |
9 |
2.5 |
5 |
|
May 12/13, 2010 (Phone) |
36 |
46 (2.5) |
11.5 |
2 |
4.5 |
|
May 15/16, 2010 (Face : Face) |
37.5 |
43 (3) |
12 |
1.5 |
6 |
|
May 22/23, 2010 (Face : Face) |
42.5 |
41 (2) |
11 |
2 |
3.5 |
|
May 26/27, 2010 (Phone) |
37.5 |
43 (3) |
11.5 |
1.5 |
6.5 |
|
May 29/30, 2010 (Face : Face) |
42 |
41 (2.5) |
8.5 |
1.5 |
7 |
|
June 5/6, 2010 (Face : Face) |
40 |
41.5 (2) |
11 |
2.5 |
2 |
|
June 12/13, 2010 (Face : Face) |
38 |
41 (1.5) |
13 |
1.5 |
6.5 |
|
June 19/20, 2010 (Face : Face) |
41 |
41 (2.5) |
12.5 |
1.5 |
4 |
| |
|
Julia Gillard replaces Kevin Rudd as Australian Prime Minister on June 24, 2010 |
| |
|
June 25-28, 2010 (Phone) |
38.5 |
45.5 (4.5) |
9 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
|
June 26/27 & July 3/4, 2010 (Face : Face) |
45.5 |
38 (2) |
10.5 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
|
July 10/11, 2010 (Face : Face) |
40.5 |
41 (3.5) |
12 |
1.5 |
5 |
|
July 17/18, 2010 (Face : Face) |
44.5 |
39.5 (4.5) |
10.5 |
1.5 |
4 |
|
July 20/21, 2010 (Phone) |
44 |
38.5 (3) |
11.5 |
2 |
4 |
|
July 24/25, 2010 (Face : Face) |
43.5 |
37 (2) |
11.5 |
1.5 |
6.5 |
|
July 27/28, 2010 (Phone) |
42 |
42 (2.5) |
11 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
|
July 31/ August 1, 2010 (Face : Face) |
44 |
41 (2) |
10 |
1 |
4 |
|
August 3, 2010 (Phone) |
38 |
45 (2.5) |
11 |
1 |
5 |
|
August 7/8, 2010 (Face : Face) |
43 |
37 (3.5) |
15.5 |
2 |
2.5 |
|
August 14, 2010 (Phone) |
40.5 |
44 (3) |
12.5 |
1 |
2 |
Note: National Party results are in brackets. # Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.
^ 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.
* The Family First Party were included as an option on Federal Voting Intention from October 30, 2004.
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)
| |
ALP |
L-NP |
|
|
| |
% |
% |
|
|
|
Election March 2, 1996 |
46.4 |
53.6 |
|
|
|
Election October 3^, 1998 |
51 |
49 |
|
|
|
Election November 10, 2001 |
49 |
51 |
|
|
|
Election October 9, 2004 |
47.3 |
52.7 |
|
|
|
Election November 24, 2007 |
52.7 |
47.3 |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Preferences distributed
by how electors voted
at the 2007 election |
Preferences distributed
by how electors
say they will vote |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
| MORGAN POLL |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
|
Dec 5/6, 2007 (Phone) |
58.5 |
41.5 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
|
Dec 1/2 & 8/9, 2007 (Face : Face) |
60.5 |
39.5 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
|
Jan 5/6 & 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
38.5 |
62 |
38 |
|
Jan 23/24, 2008 (Phone) |
63 |
37 |
63 |
37 |
|
Jan 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face) |
59 |
41 |
60 |
40 |
|
Jan 30/31, 2008 (Phone) |
60 |
40 |
60 |
40 |
|
Feb 2/3 & 9/10, 2008 (Face : Face) |
62.5 |
37.5 |
63 |
37 |
|
Feb 16/17 & 23/24, 2008 (Face : Face) |
64.5 |
35.5 |
64.5 |
35.5 |
|
Mar 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face) |
65 |
35 |
65.5 |
34.5 |
|
Mar 11/12, 2008 (Phone) |
61 |
39 |
62 |
38 |
|
Mar 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face) |
63.5 |
36.5 |
63.5 |
36.5 |
|
Mar 26/27 & Apr 2/3, 2008 (Phone) |
60.5 |
39.5 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
|
Apr 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face) |
62 |
38 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
|
Apr 9/10, 2008 (Phone) |
63.5 |
36.5 |
64.5 |
35.5 |
|
Apr 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
62 |
38 |
62.5 |
37.5 |
|
Apr 16/17, 2008 (Phone) |
62.5 |
37.5 |
64 |
36 |
|
Apr 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
38.5 |
62.5 |
37.5 |
|
May 3/4, 2008(Face : Face) |
62 |
38 |
64 |
36 |
|
May 7-11, 2008 (Phone) |
58 |
42 |
58 |
42 |
|
May 17/18, 2008 (Face : Face) |
60.5 |
39.5 |
61 |
39 |
|
May 24/25, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61 |
39 |
62 |
38 |
|
May 31 - June 1, 2008 (Face : Face) |
63 |
37 |
63.5 |
36.5 |
|
June 4-9, 2008 (Phone) |
56 |
44 |
56 |
44 |
|
June 7/8, 2008 (Face : Face) |
58.5 |
41.5 |
59 |
41 |
|
June 14/15 & 21/22, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61 |
39 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
|
June 28/29 & July 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face) |
59 |
41 |
59 |
41 |
|
July 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
60 |
40 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
|
July 19/20, 2008 (Face : Face) |
55 |
45 |
55 |
45 |
|
July 26/27 & August 2/3, 2008 (Face : Face) |
55 |
45 |
54.5 |
45.5 |
|
August 9/10 & 16/17, 2008 (Face : Face) |
57 |
43 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
August 23/24 & 30/31, 2008 (Face : Face) |
58 |
42 |
59 |
41 |
|
September 6/7 & 13/14, 2008 (Face : Face) |
55.5 |
44.5 |
56 |
44 |
|
Malcolm Turnbull replaces Brendan Nelson as Leader of the Opposition on September 15, 2008 |
|
September 24/25, 2008 (Phone) |
56 |
44 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
September 20/21 & 27/28, 2008 (Face : Face) |
57.5 |
42.5 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
|
October 8/9, 2008 (Phone) |
57.5 |
42.5 |
56.5 |
43.5 |
|
October 4/5 & 11/12, 2008 (Face : Face) |
57.5 |
42.5 |
58 |
42 |
|
October 15/16, 2008 (Phone) |
57.5 |
42.5 |
58 |
42 |
|
October 18/19 & 25/26, 2008 (Face : Face) |
56.5 |
43.5 |
57 |
43 |
|
November 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face) |
58.5 |
41.5 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
|
November 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face) |
59.5 |
40.5 |
60.5 |
39.5 |
|
November 29/30 & December 6/7, 2008 (Face : Face) |
59.5 |
40.5 |
60.5 |
39.5 |
|
December 13/14 & 20/21, 2008 (Face : Face) |
60 |
40 |
61 |
39 |
|
January 3/4 & 10/11, 2009 (Face : Face) |
60 |
40 |
61 |
39 |
|
January 17/18 & 24/25, 2009 (Face : Face) |
59.5 |
40.5 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
|
January 31 & February 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
56 |
44 |
55.5 |
44.5 |
|
February 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
60 |
40 |
62 |
38 |
|
February 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
59.5 |
40.5 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
|
February 21/22 & 28/ March 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
38.5 |
62 |
38 |
|
March 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
60.5 |
39.5 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
|
March 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
57 |
43 |
56.5 |
43.5 |
|
March 21/22 & 28/29, 2009 (Face : Face) |
61 |
39 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
|
April 4/5 & 11/12, 2009 (Face : Face) |
61 |
39 |
62 |
38 |
|
April 18/19 & 25/26, 2009 (Face : Face) |
59 |
41 |
60 |
40 |
|
May 2/3 & 9/10, 2009 (Face : Face) |
60 |
40 |
60 |
40 |
|
May 16/17, 2009 (Face : Face) |
58 |
42 |
58 |
42 |
|
May 20/21, 2009 (Phone) |
54.5 |
45.5 |
55.5 |
44.5 |
|
May 23/24 & 30/31, 2009 (Face : Face) |
58 |
42 |
59 |
41 |
|
June 3/4, 2009 (Phone) |
54.5 |
45.5 |
55 |
45 |
|
June 10/11, 2009 (Phone) |
57.5 |
42.5 |
58 |
42 |
|
June 6/7 & 13/14, 2009 (Face : Face) |
57 |
43 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
June 20/21, 2009 (Face : Face) |
55 |
45 |
54.5 |
45.5 |
|
July 1/2, 2009 (Phone) |
56 |
44 |
56.5 |
43.5 |
|
June 27/28 & July 4/5, 2009 (Face : Face) |
58 |
42 |
59 |
41 |
|
July 11/12 & 18/19, 2009 (Face : Face) |
57.5 |
42.5 |
57 |
43 |
|
July 25/26 & August 1/2, 2009 (Face : Face) |
60.5 |
39.5 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
|
August 5/6, 2009 (Phone) |
57 |
43 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
August 8/9 & 15/16, 2009 (Face : Face) |
58 |
42 |
59 |
41 |
|
August 22/23 & 29/30, 2009 (Face : Face) |
61 |
39 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
|
September 5/6 & 12/13, 2009 (Face : Face) |
62 |
38 |
63 |
37 |
|
September 19/20 & 26/27, 2009 (Face : Face) |
59.5 |
40.5 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
|
October 7/8, 2009 (Phone) |
58 |
42 |
58 |
42 |
|
October 3/4 & 10/11, 2009 (Face : Face) |
60 |
40 |
61 |
39 |
|
October 17/18 & 24/25, 2009 (Face : Face) |
60.5 |
39.5 |
61 |
39 |
|
October 31 & November 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
61 |
39 |
61 |
39 |
|
November 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
56 |
44 |
55 |
45 |
|
November 11/12, 2009 (Phone) |
52 |
48 |
52 |
48 |
|
November 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
56.5 |
43.5 |
57 |
43 |
|
November 21/22, 2009 (Face : Face) |
58.5 |
41.5 |
58 |
42 |
|
November 28/29, 2009 (Face : Face) |
58.5 |
41.5 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
|
Tony Abbott replaces Malcolm Turnbull as Leader of the Opposition on December 1, 2009 |
|
December 2/3, 2009 (Phone) |
53 |
47 |
53 |
47 |
|
December 4-9, 2009 (Phone) |
55.5 |
44.5 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
|
December 5/6 & 12/13, 2009 (Face : Face) |
59 |
41 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
|
December 19/20, 2009 & January 2/3, 2010 (Face : Face) |
57 |
43 |
57 |
43 |
|
January 13/14, 2010 (Phone) |
54.5 |
45.5 |
56 |
44 |
|
January 9/10 & 16/17, 2010 (Face : Face) |
58.5 |
41.5 |
60 |
40 |
|
January 23/24 & 30/31, 2010 (Face : Face) |
56.5 |
43.5 |
56.5 |
43.5 |
|
February 10/11, 2010 (Phone) |
53.5 |
46.5 |
53 |
47 |
|
February 6/7 & 13/14, 2010 (Face : Face) |
57.5 |
42.5 |
58 |
42 |
|
February 20/21, 2010 (Face : Face) |
56.5 |
43.5 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
February 27/28 & March 6/7, 2010 (Face : Face) |
55.5 |
44.5 |
56 |
44 |
|
March 13/14 & 20/21, 2010 (Face : Face) |
56.5 |
43.5 |
57 |
43 |
|
March 27/28 & April 3/4, 2010 (Face : Face) |
58 |
42 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
April 10/11 & 17/18, 2010 (Face : Face) |
56 |
44 |
56.5 |
43.5 |
|
April 24/25, 2010 (Face : Face) |
54.5 |
45.5 |
55 |
45 |
|
May 1/2, 2010 (Face : Face) |
54 |
46 |
55 |
45 |
|
May 4/5, 2010 (Phone) |
50 |
50 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
|
May 8/9, 2010 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
48.5 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
|
May 12/13, 2010 (Phone) |
48 |
52 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
|
May 15/16, 2010 (Face : Face) |
50.5 |
49.5 |
50 |
50 |
|
May 22/23, 2010 (Face : Face) |
54.5 |
45.5 |
55 |
45 |
|
May 26/27, 2010 (Phone) |
50 |
50 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
|
May 29/30, 2010 (Face : Face) |
52.5 |
47.5 |
52 |
48 |
|
June 5/6, 2010 (Face : Face) |
52 |
48 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
|
June 12/13, 2010 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
|
June 19/20, 2010 (Face : Face) |
53 |
47 |
53 |
47 |
|
Julia Gillard replaces Kevin Rudd as Australian Prime Minister on June 24, 2010 |
|
June 25-28, 2010 (Phone) |
48.5 |
51.5 |
49 |
51 |
|
June 26/27 & July 3/4, 2010 (Face : Face)* |
56.5 |
43.5 |
55 |
45 |
|
July 10/11, 2010 (Face : Face) |
53.5 |
46.5 |
54.5 |
45.5 |
|
July 17/18, 2010 (Face : Face) |
55 |
45 |
56 |
44 |
|
July 20/21, 2010 (Phone) |
55.5 |
44.5 |
55.5 |
44.5 |
|
July 24/25, 2010 (Face : Face) |
54 |
46 |
55.5 |
44.5 |
|
July 27/28, 2010 (Phone) |
53 |
47 |
53 |
47 |
|
July 31/ August 1, 2010 (Face : Face) |
54 |
46 |
53 |
47 |
|
August 3, 2010 (Phone) |
49.5 |
50.5 |
50 |
50 |
|
August 7/8, 2010 (Face : Face) |
57.5 |
42.5 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
August 14, 2010 (Phone) |
51.5 |
48.5 |
51 |
49 |
^ 1998 Federal Election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.
*Julia Gillard’s rise to become the new Prime Minister necessitates a change in the reported two-party preferred figures to reflect how electors say they will vote.
THINK WILL WIN
Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal Election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"
|
Think Will Win |
ALP |
L-NP |
Can't Say |
| |
% |
% |
% |
|
Dec 5/6, 2007 (Phone) |
58 |
14.5 |
27.5 |
|
Dec 1/2 & 8/9, 2007 (Face : Face) |
61 |
17 |
22 |
|
Jan 5/6 & 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
65 |
15 |
20 |
|
Jan 23/24, 2008 (Phone) |
65 |
10.5 |
24.5 |
|
Jan 19/20& 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face) |
64 |
16 |
20 |
|
Jan 30/31, 2008 (Phone) |
65.5 |
9 |
25.5 |
|
Feb 2/3 & 9/10, 2008 (Face : Face) |
65.5 |
17 |
17.5 |
|
Feb 16/17 & 23/24, 2008 (Face : Face) |
69.5 |
15 |
15.5 |
|
Mar 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face) |
70.5 |
14 |
15.5 |
|
Mar 11/12, 2008 (Phone) |
71 |
13 |
16 |
|
Mar 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face) |
70.5 |
14.5 |
15 |
|
Mar 26/27 & Apr 2/3, 2008 (Phone) |
71.5 |
12.5 |
16 |
|
Apr 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face) |
71.5 |
15 |
13.5 |
|
Apr 9/10, 2008 (Phone) |
75 |
10 |
15 |
|
Apr 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
72 |
15.5 |
12.5 |
|
Apr 16/17, 2008 (Phone) |
73 |
12 |
15 |
|
Apr 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face) |
72.5 |
15.5 |
12 |
|
May 3/4, 2008(Face : Face) |
72.5 |
14 |
13.5 |
|
May 7-11, 2008(Phone) |
70.5 |
11.5 |
18 |
|
May 17/18, 2008 (Face : Face) |
69.5 |
17 |
13.5 |
|
May 24/25, 2008 (Face : Face) |
68 |
15.5 |
16.5 |
|
May 31 - June 1, 2008 (Face : Face) |
63.5 |
20.5 |
16 |
|
June 4-9, 2008 (Phone) |
65.5 |
21 |
13.5 |
|
June 7/8, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
20 |
18.5 |
|
June 14/15 & 21/22, 2008 (Face : Face) |
64.5 |
21 |
14.5 |
|
June 28/29 & July 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
23.5 |
15 |
|
July 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
66 |
22 |
12 |
|
July 19/20, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61 |
24 |
15 |
|
July 26/27 & August 2/3, 2008 (Face : Face) |
59.5 |
24.5 |
16 |
|
August 9/10 & 16/17, 2008 (Face : Face) |
62 |
23 |
15 |
|
August 23/24 & 30/31, 2008 (Face : Face) |
60.5 |
23.5 |
16 |
|
September 6/7 & 13/14, 2008 (Face : Face) |
57.5 |
26.5 |
16 |
|
|
|
Malcolm Turnbull replaces Brendan Nelson as Leader of Opposition on September 15, 2008 |
|
|
|
September 24/25, 2008 (Phone) |
51 |
29.5 |
19.5 |
|
September 20/21& 27/28, 2008 (Face : Face) |
54 |
29 |
17 |
|
October 8/9, 2008 (Phone) |
52 |
29 |
19 |
|
October 4/5 & 11/12, 2008 (Face : Face) |
53.5 |
30 |
16.5 |
|
October 15/16, 2008 (Phone) |
58.5 |
22.5 |
19 |
|
October 18/19 & 25/26, 2008 (Face : Face) |
57.5 |
29 |
13.5 |
|
November 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face) |
58.5 |
25.5 |
16 |
|
November 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face) |
59.5 |
26 |
14.5 |
|
November 29/30 & December 6/7, 2008 (Face : Face) |
62.5 |
22.5 |
15 |
|
December 13/14 & 20/21, 2008 (Face : Face) |
63.5 |
21 |
15.5 |
|
January 3/4 & 10/11, 2009 (Face : Face) |
65 |
23 |
12 |
|
January 17/18 & 24/25, 2009 (Face : Face) |
66 |
21 |
13 |
|
January 31 & February 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
58.5 |
26.5 |
15 |
|
February 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
63 |
24 |
13 |
|
February 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
67.5 |
21 |
11.5 |
|
February 21/22 & 28/ March 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
66 |
19.5 |
14.5 |
|
March 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
63.5 |
21 |
15.5 |
|
March 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
64 |
24 |
12 |
|
March 21/22 & 28/29, 2009 (Face : Face) |
65 |
20.5 |
14.5 |
|
April 4/5 & 11/12, 2009 (Face : Face) |
70.5 |
18 |
11.5 |
|
April 18/19 & 25/26, 2009 (Face : Face) |
68.5 |
18.5 |
13 |
|
May 2/3 & 9/10, 2009 (Face : Face) |
65.5 |
22 |
12.5 |
|
May 16/17, 2009 (Face : Face) |
65.5 |
24 |
10.5 |
|
May 20/21, 2009 (Phone) |
69 |
19.5 |
11.5 |
|
May 23/24 & 30/31, 2009 (Face : Face) |
62 |
25.5 |
12.5 |
|
June 3/4, 2009 (Phone) |
66.5 |
22.5 |
11 |
|
June 10/11, 2009 (Phone) |
69 |
18 |
13 |
|
June 6/7 & 13/14, 2009 (Face : Face) |
63.5 |
24 |
12.5 |
|
June 20/21, 2009 (Face : Face) |
61 |
26.5 |
12.5 |
|
July 1/2, 2009 (Phone) |
71.5 |
15.5 |
13 |
|
June 27/28 & July 4/5, 2009 (Face : Face) |
69.5 |
18 |
12.5 |
|
July 11/12 & 18/19, 2009 (Face : Face) |
69 |
19.5 |
11.5 |
|
July 25/26 & August 1/2, 2009 (Face : Face) |
70 |
16.5 |
13.5 |
|
August 5/6, 2009 (Phone) |
71.5 |
14 |
14.5 |
|
August 8/9 & 15/16, 2009 (Face : Face) |
71 |
16 |
13 |
|
August 22/23 & 29/30, 2009 (Face : Face) |
71.5 |
17 |
11.5 |
|
September 5/6 & 12/13, 2009 (Face : Face) |
71.5 |
17 |
11.5 |
|
September 19/20 & 26/27, 2009 (Face : Face) |
70 |
19 |
11 |
|
October 7/8, 2009 (Phone) |
76.5 |
12.5 |
11 |
|
October 3/4 & 10/11, 2009 (Face : Face) |
74.5 |
16 |
9.5 |
|
October 17/18 & 24/25, 2009 (Face : Face) |
73 |
18 |
9 |
|
October 31 & November 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
71 |
17.5 |
11.5 |
|
November 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
70.5 |
18.5 |
11 |
|
November 11/12, 2009 (Phone) |
72.5 |
15 |
12.5 |
|
November 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
67.5 |
21 |
11.5 |
|
November 21/22, 2009 (Face : Face) |
69 |
19 |
12 |
|
November 28/29, 2009 (Face : Face) |
72 |
19 |
9 |
|
|
|
Tony Abbott replaces Malcolm Turnbull as Leader of Opposition on December 1, 2009 |
|
|
|
December 2/3, 2009 (Phone) |
78 |
13 |
9 |
|
December 4-9, 2009 (Phone) |
66.5 |
20.5 |
13 |
|
December 5/6 & 12/13, 2009 (Face : Face) |
70.5 |
18 |
11.5 |
|
December 19/20, 2009 & January 2/3, 2010 (Face : Face) |
66 |
22 |
12 |
|
January 13/14, 2010 (Phone) |
73.5 |
15.5 |
11 |
|
January 9/10 & 16/17, 2010 (Face : Face) |
70 |
19 |
11 |
|
January 23/24 & 30/31, 2010 (Face : Face) |
66 |
22.5 |
11.5 |
|
February 10/11, 2010 (Phone) |
66 |
19 |
15 |
|
February 6/7 & 13/14, 2010 (Face : Face) |
66.5 |
23 |
10.5 |
|
February 20/21, 2010 (Face : Face) |
65 |
24.5 |
10.5 |
|
February 27/28 & March 6/7, 2010 (Face : Face) |
61 |
26 |
13 |
|
March 13/14 & 20/21, 2010 (Face : Face) |
65 |
23.5 |
11.5 |
|
March 27/28 & April 3/4, 2010 (Face : Face) |
68 |
21 |
11 |
|
April 10/11 & 17/18, 2010 (Face : Face) |
63 |
25 |
12 |
|
April 24/25, 2010 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
25 |
13.5 |
|
May 1/2, 2010 (Face : Face) |
60 |
27.5 |
12.5 |
|
May 4/5, 2010 (Phone) |
61 |
27.5 |
11.5 |
|
May 8/9, 2010 (Face : Face) |
54 |
32 |
14 |
|
May 12/13, 2010 (Phone) |
56 |
30 |
14 |
|
May 15/16, 2010 (Face : Face) |
53 |
33.5 |
13.5 |
|
May 22/23, 2010 (Face : Face) |
55 |
29.5 |
15.5 |
|
May 26/27, 2010 (Phone) |
56.5 |
28 |
15.5 |
|
May 29/30, 2010 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
33.5 |
15 |
|
June 5/6, 2010 (Face : Face) |
49 |
33.5 |
17.5 |
|
June 12/13, 2010 (Face : Face) |
48.5 |
38.5 |
13 |
|
June 19/20, 2010 (Face : Face) |
46 |
41 |
13 |
| |
| Julia Gillard replaces Kevin Rudd as Australian Prime Minister on June 24, 2010 |
| |
|
June 25-28, 2010 (Phone) |
55.5 |
28 |
16.5 |
|
June 26/27 & July 3/4, 2010 (Face : Face) |
62 |
27.5 |
10.5 |
|
July 10/11, 2010 (Face : Face) |
53.5 |
30 |
16.5 |
|
July 17/18, 2010 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
26 |
12.5 |
|
July 20/21, 2010 (Phone) |
69.5 |
18.5 |
12 |
|
July 24/25, 2010 (Face : Face) |
67.5 |
18.5 |
14 |
|
July 27/28, 2010 (Phone) |
64.5 |
20 |
15.5 |
|
July 31/ August 1, 2010 (Face : Face) |
55 |
30.5 |
14.5 |
|
August 3, 2010 (Phone) |
52 |
27 |
21 |
|
August 7/8, 2010 (Face : Face) |
53.5 |
32.5 |
14 |
|
August 14, 2010 (Phone) |
60 |
22.5 |
17.5 |
AUSTRALIA HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION
Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”
| |
Interviewing Dates — ALP Government (Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott) |
| |
Dec
2/3 |
Dec
4-9 |
Dec 5/6
& 12/13 |
Dec 19/20
& Jan 2/3 |
Jan 13/14 |
Jan 9/10
& 16/17 |
Jan 23/24
& 30/31 |
Feb
10/11 |
Feb 6/7
& 13/14 |
Feb
20/21 |
Feb 27/28
& Mar 6/7 |
Mar 13/14
& 20/21 |
Mar 27/28
& Apr 3/4 |
| |
Phone |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Right direction |
54 |
52.5 |
59.5 |
58.5 |
56.5 |
59.5 |
61 |
57.5 |
57.5 |
58.5 |
57 |
56 |
53 |
|
Wrong direction |
33 |
29.5 |
23 |
126 |
29 |
23 |
24 |
28.5 |
24 |
26.5 |
26 |
25 |
30 |
|
Roy Morgan GCR* |
121 |
123 |
136.5 |
132.5 |
127.5 |
136.5 |
137 |
129 |
133.5 |
132 |
131 |
131 |
123 |
|
Can’t say |
13 |
18 |
17.5 |
15.5 |
14.5 |
17.5 |
15 |
14 |
18.5 |
15 |
17 |
19 |
17 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
| |
Interviewing Dates — ALP Government (Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott) |
| |
Apr 10/11
& 17/18 |
Apr
24/25 |
May
1/2 |
May
4/5 |
May
8/9 |
May
12/13 |
May
15/16 |
May
22/23 |
May
26/27 |
May
29/30 |
June
5/6 |
June
12/13 |
June
19/20 |
| |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Right direction |
55 |
56.5 |
55 |
55.5 |
47 |
56 |
52 |
53 |
45.5 |
46.5 |
51 |
50 |
50 |
|
Wrong direction |
28.5 |
30 |
28.5 |
32 |
34 |
32.5 |
32 |
31.5 |
38.5 |
35 |
29.5 |
32 |
33 |
|
Roy Morgan GCR* |
126.5 |
126.5 |
126.5 |
123.5 |
113 |
123.5 |
120 |
121.5 |
107 |
111.5 |
121.5 |
118 |
117 |
|
Can’t say |
16.5 |
13.5 |
16.5 |
12.5 |
19 |
11.5 |
16 |
15.5 |
16 |
18.5 |
19.5 |
18 |
17 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
| |
Interviewing Dates — ALP Government (Julia Gillard v Tony Abbott) |
| |
June
25-28 |
June 26/27
& July 3/4 |
July
10/11 |
July
17/18 |
July
20/21 |
July
24/25 |
July
27/28 |
July 31/
Aug 1 |
Aug
3 |
Aug
7/8 |
Aug
14 |
|
|
|
|
| |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Phone |
|
|
|
|
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
|
|
|
Right direction |
54.5 |
55.5 |
54.5 |
52 |
54.5 |
51 |
51.5 |
52 |
50 |
54 |
51 |
|
|
|
|
|
Wrong direction |
29.5 |
24.5 |
23.5 |
28.5 |
32.5 |
27 |
31 |
28 |
34.5 |
27.5 |
35 |
|
|
|
|
|
Roy Morgan GCR* |
125 |
131 |
131 |
123.5 |
122 |
124 |
120.5 |
124 |
115.5 |
126.5 |
116 |
|
|
|
|
|
Can’t say |
16 |
20 |
22 |
19.5 |
13 |
22 |
17.5 |
20 |
15.5 |
18.5 |
14 |
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
|
|
|
|
Phone: Telephone survey method; Face: Face-to-face survey method.
* Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (100 plus the difference between the percentage of people who say the country is “going in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “going in seriously the wrong direction”).
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
|
Sample Size |
Percentage Estimate |
| |
40%-60% |
25% or 75% |
10% or 90% |
5% or 95% |
|
500 |
±4.5 |
±3.9 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
| 1,000 |
±3.2 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
±1.4 |
|
1,500 |
±2.6 |
±2.2 |
±1.5 |
±1.1 |
|
2,000 |
±2.2 |
±1.9 |
±1.3 |
±1 |
The Morgan Poll was the most accurate of all polling companies at the 2007 Federal Election for both primary vote and two-party preferred predictions (sample 2,115 electors).
The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland Election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).
The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian Election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors). The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.
Note: The recent discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading.
The following included comment says it all: “I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%). Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll. On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s.”
View Federal Voting Intention Trend
The Roy Morgan Research Centre conducts the Morgan Poll in Australia and New Zealand and is the Gallup International Association Member
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.
|
