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A special telephone Morgan Poll conducted tonight (August 16, 2010) in the key marginal Victorian electorate of McEwen — won at the 2007 Federal Election by retiring Liberal MP Fran Bailey — shows the ALP 55.5% set to defeat the Liberals 44.5% — a 5.5% swing since the 2007 Federal Election.

Analysis by Gender reveals that in McEwen the ALP is still benefiting from a significant ‘Gender Gap’ with women supporting the ALP 61% cf. Liberal 39% on a Two-Party preferred basis while men are evenly split: ALP 50% cf. Liberal 50%.

The country/city split is apparent in McEwen with the metro areas of Melbourne (Outer Northern suburbs) favouring the ALP 62.5% cf. Liberal 37.5% while the rural areas of McEwen favour the Liberals 51.5% cf. ALP 48.5%.

Looking at the primary voting intention shows the ALP 42.5% (up 2.3% since the 2007 Federal Election), clearly ahead of the Liberals 39.5% (down 6.3%). The record high primary vote of the Greens 16.5% (up 7.8%) has increased strongly while Independents/Others are just 1.5% (down 3.8%). The higher Greens vote augurs well for the Greens likelihood of winning the seat of Melbourne (last weekend’s Australia-wide Morgan Poll, ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49%, showed a Melbourne metropolitan Green vote of 14.5%).

Gary Morgan says:

“As identified by Michele Levine yesterday on Insiders (ABC1), for the ALP to retain Government they will need to win Liberal marginal seats in Victoria (including McEwen & La Trobe) and possibly in South Australia (Sturt) to counter expected ALP losses in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia - outlined in the special telephone Morgan Marginal Seats Poll released on Sunday..

“Tonight’s special telephone Morgan ‘Marginal Seat’ Poll in the key Victorian marginal seat of McEwen is good news for the incumbent Gillard Government with the ALP (55.5%, up 5.5% since the 2007 Federal Election) well clear of the Liberals (44.5%, down 5.5%) — showing ALP set to win.

Electors were asked: “In the Federal election being held this Saturday - which party will receive your FIRST prference, would it be...”

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted in the key marginal seat of McEwen in Victoria on the night of August 16, 2010 with a representative cross-section of 202 electors.

VICTORIA

McEwen (Outer Northern Melbourne - Diamond Creek, Hurstbridge, Whittlesea, Marysville, Seymour, Warburton, Eildon, Broadford, Yea, Kilmore, Yarra Junction)

(Projected: ALP gain)

Primary Voting Intention

	2007 Federal Election November 24, 2007	Telephone Morgan Poll August 16, 2010
	%	%
ALP	40.2	42.5
Liberal	45.8	39.5
Greens	8.7	16.5
Independents/ Others	5.3	1.5
Total	100	100

Two-Party Preferred

	2007 Federal Election November 24, 2007	Telephone Morgan Poll August 16, 2010	Change 2007 Election — Present	Analysis by Gender
				Men	Women
	%	%	%	%	%
ALP	50.0	55.5	+5.5	50	61
Liberal	50.0	44.5	-5.5	50	39
Total	100	100		100	100

202 electors were polled in the electorate of McEwen. Of all electors surveyed, a high 6% of electors did not nominate a party.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:      Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

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