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As the Election Day draws closer trends are crucial and timing is everything — (timing of when a poll is conducted, not when released, is crucial).

The Morgan Poll, was the only poll to conduct a complete face-to-face nationwide survey over the weekend of August 7-8, 2010, and therefore the only poll to measure the strength of potential ALP support (57.5% vs 42.5% L-NP), as the electorate looked forward to a once more united Labor Party — with Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard campaigning together.

The Morgan Poll was the first to recognise the swing back to the Coalition (initially in marginal seats (surveyed August 11/12, 2010) and then nationally (August 14, 2010)) when the Gillard-Rudd team failed to deliver on the promise of unity and joint campaigning.

Polling in key ‘bellwether’ marginal seats in Queensland (Leichhardt), New South Wales (Macquarie) and Western Australia (Brand) reported by Michele Levine on Insiders (August 15, 2010) showed a swing of 6.6% to the Coalition in Leichhardt, 3.1% to the Coalition in Macquarie and 3% in Brand.

Michele Levine said:

“At this stage, Roy Morgan’s polling indicates that the Coalition could win 6 or 7 seats in Queensland, 4 in New South Wales, and 1 in Western Australia, while losing 1 or 2 seats in Victoria or South Australia (McEwen, LaTrobe, Sturt).  The high Green vote is hurting Labor — and Melbourne looks set to go to the Greens.  On today’s figures the outcome could be a hung Parliament.  However, if the swing continues the Coalition is likely to claim victory.”

On Saturday August 14, 2010, the Australia-wide Morgan Poll (ALP 51%: L-NP 49%) confirmed the swing back to the Coalition that had been foreshadowed in the Morgan marginal seat polling in Leichhardt, Macquarie and Brand.

It was clear that for the ALP to retain Government they needed to win Liberal marginal seats in Victoria (including McEwen and La Trobe) and possibly South Australia (Sturt) to counter expected ALP losses in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia.

Tony Walker (AFR Online — August 16, 2010) made the same point, saying the key would be Victoria, South Australia and he added Tasmania.

For this reason the Morgan Poll last night (August 16, 2010) surveyed the marginal seat of McEwen, and reported a swing of 5.5% to Labour.

How the Other Polls fit — with so many polls it is easy to get confused but it all makes sense

The Age Poll reported Saturday August 14, 2010 — (ALP 53%: L-NP 47%) was conducted Tuesday through Thursday (between the two weekend Morgan Polls) and recorded a result between the two Morgan Poll results.

	Saturday/Sunday August 7-8 Morgan Poll	Tuesday-Thursday August 10-12 Age Poll	Saturday August 14 Morgan Poll
ALP	57.5%	53%	51%
L-NP	42.5%	47%	49%

The Newspoll released Monday August 16, (ALP 52%: L-NP 48%) was conducted last Friday, Saturday, Sunday and recorded a vote between the Age Poll (ALP 53%: L-NP 47% — polled on Tuesday — Thursday) and the Saturday Morgan Poll ALP 51%: L-NP 49%.

	Saturday/Sunday August 7-8	Tuesday-Thursday August 10-12	Friday-Sunday August 13-15	Saturday August 14
	Morgan Poll	Age Poll	Newspoll	Morgan Poll
ALP	57.5%	53%	52%	51%
L-NP	42.5%	47%	48%	49%

The Galaxy 20 marginal seat poll including 12 Liberal marginals conducted over the whole of last week recorded L-NP 51.4%: ALP 48.6% - a swing to the Coalition in the marginals. Translating this into a national vote Antony Green estimates it equates to ALP 51.1%: 48.9% L-NP — in line with the other polls. The Essential Internet poll released yesterday came in ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49% - the same as the Morgan Poll.

So the polls are all making sense — it is about timing — when conducted!

It is dangerous to assume swings in marginal seats will translate across the entire country or even the State.

There are individual seat issues like local members, the impact of gender, which appears different in different seats, and of course, local campaigning and special offers like the ‘occasional’ railway.

So in the last week, poll watchers will need to watch carefully:

• All the national polls — noting particularly the dates of interviewing;

• Any marginal seat polls — noting the dates of interviewing, and any interpretation that are made about how much a swing in any seat or group of seats can be generalised.

Tonight the Morgan Poll will be surveying the second important Victorian marginal seat of La Trobe and the ‘railway’ seat of Bennelong.

What is very revealing are the PolliGraph results showing electors attitudes to the major TV advertisements, published August 15, 2010 in the Sydney Sunday Telegraph (see attached) and on their web site. http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/be-very-afraid/story-e6frezz0-1225905259314

Also see how men and women react to the political ads tested:

http://onlinereactor.roymorgan.com/PlayerBV.aspx?jid=7¶m=gender

For further information:

Gary Morgan:      Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

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