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A special telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the last two nights (August 16-17, 2010) in the key marginal Victorian electorate of La Trobe — won at the 2007 Federal Election by Liberal MP Jason Wood by just 1.01% — shows the ALP 53% set to defeat the Liberals 47% — a 3.5% swing to the ALP since the 2007 Federal election.

Last night’s special telephone Morgan Poll showed the ALP is also set to pick up McEwen, another Victorian Liberal marginal seat, meaning the ALP looks likely to gain two seats in Victoria although key marginal seats in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia are likely to swing to the Coalition.

A special telephone Morgan Poll conducted tonight in Bennelong shows Liberal 50.5% (up 1.9% since the 2007 Federal election) ahead of the ALP 49.5% (down 1.9%) and set to regain the seat lost by former Prime Minister John Howard at the 2007 Federal election.

Analysis by Gender reveals that in La Trobe women favour the ALP 54.5% cf. Liberal 45.5%, more strongly than men: ALP 51.5% cf. Liberal 48.5% — a similar result was found last night in McEwen. Labor’s selection of Laura Smyth as their La Trobe candidate should help to reinforce female support for the ALP.

Looking at primary voting intention shows both major parties losing support in La Trobe with the ALP 37% (down 3.4% since the 2007 Federal Election), behind the Liberal 41.5% (down 5%). This support has flowed strongly to the Greens 16% (up 7.2%) — a similar level to the Greens support in McEwen (16.5%) — while Independents/Others support is 5.5% (up 1.2%).

Gary Morgan says:

“Today the ALP appears set to gain the two most marginal Liberal seats in Victoria with a big increase in Greens support. Things can change during the last few days of the Federal election campaign — however if Liberals lose two seats in Victoria then, despite gaining many seats in New South Wales and Queensland, the Coalition will probably fall just short of a Parliamentary majority.

“This would result in a hung Parliament.”

Electors were asked: “In the Federal election being held this Saturday — which party will receive your FIRST preference — would it be…”

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted in the key marginal seat of La Trobe in Victoria on the nights of August 16-17, 2010 with a representative cross-section of 202 electors and in McEwen on the night of August 16, 2010 with a representative cross-section of 202 electors.

VICTORIA

La Trobe (Outer Eastern Melbourne — Belgrave, Upwey, Ferntree Gully, Gembrook, Beaconsfield, Berwick, Narre Warren North)

(Projected: ALP gain)

Primary Voting Intention

Two-Party Preferred

202 electors were polled in the electorate of La Trobe. Of all electors surveyed, a high 6% of electors did not nominate a party.

McEwen (Outer Northern Melbourne - Diamond Creek, Hurstbridge, Whittlesea, Marysville, Seymour, Warburton, Eildon, Broadford, Yea, Kilmore, Yarra Junction)

(Projected: ALP gain)

Primary Voting Intention

Two-Party Preferred

202 electors were polled in the electorate of McEwen. Of all electors surveyed, a high 6% of electors did not nominate a party.

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