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A special telephone Morgan Poll conducted tonight (August 17, 2010) in the key NSW Marginal electorate of Bennelong — where Labor’s Maxine McKew ousted former Prime Minister John Howard at the 2007 Federal Election — shows Liberal 50.5% (up 1.9%) set to defeat the ALP 49.5% (down 1.9%) — a 1.9% swing since the 2007 Federal Election.

Analysis by Gender reveals that in Bennelong the ALP is still benefiting from a ‘Gender Gap’ with women supporting the ALP 50.5% cf. Liberal 49.5% on a Two-Party preferred basis, but not enough to deliver the seat to Labor. Among men Liberal 51.5% is ahead of the ALP 48.5%.

Looking at primary voting intention shows Liberal 46% (up 0.5% since the 2007 Federal Election), clearly ahead of the ALP 40% (down 5.3%). The primary vote of the Greens is 10% (up 4.5%) and Independents/Others 4% (up 0.3%) (The Green vote in Bennelong is the same as the Sydney Metropolitan Green vote (10%) measured last weekend by the Australia-wide Morgan Poll).

Gary Morgan says:

“Tonight’s special telephone Morgan ‘Marginal Seat’ Poll in the key NSW Marginal Seat of Bennelong is not good news for the incumbent Gillard Government with the Liberals 50.5% (up 1.9% since the 2007 Federal Election) clear of the ALP 49.5% (down 1.9 %) — showing the Liberals set to win.

“Despite last week’s announcement by the Prime Minister of the $2.6 billion extension of the railway link to the Western suburbs through Bennelong, this latest Morgan Poll in Bennelong shows a swing of almost 2% - not as large as the 3.1% in Macquarie probably due to Maxine McKew’s high profile and popularity, but enough to see the seat change hands from Labor to Liberal.

“Last night the Victorian Marginal Seat Morgan Poll reported McEwen at ALP 55.5% to Liberal 44.5% looked set to be won by the ALP, and tonight a special Morgan Poll conducted in La Trobe showed ALP 53% to Liberal 47% also set to change to the ALP.

“On Sunday Michele Levine Sunday on Insiders (ABC1) reported the swing in Macquarie was 3.1% to the Coalition (Liberal 53% to ALP 47%) and pointed out if the swing translated across NSW the Coalition would win Robertson, Page and either Bennelong or Dobell. And that the ALP needed to win Liberal Marginal Seats in Victoria (including McEwen & La Trobe) and possibly in South Australia (Sturt) to counter expected ALP losses in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia - outlined in the special telephone Morgan Marginal Seats Poll released on Sunday.”

“The national outlook has not changed since last Sunday and at this stage still looks like a hung Parliament.”

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