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A special 7News Morgan Exit Poll showed support for the ALP at 38.5%, L-NP 41.5%, Greens 13% and 7% Others/Independents. This translates into a Two-Party Preferred vote of 51.5% ALP cf. 48.5% L-NP.

Analysis by area shows swings to the L-NP in Western Australia, Queensland and New South Wales and swings to the ALP in Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania.

This special telephone Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted on Election Day with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,220 electors.

7News Election Day Morgan Poll (August 21, 2010)

				Election Day
FIRST PREFERENCE	2007 Federal election	Aug 18/19, 2010	Aug 20, 2010	Aug 21, 2010	Swing since 2007 Federal election
	%	%	%	%	%
ALP	43.4	38	39	38.5	-4.9
LIB (NP)	42.1 (5.5)	42 (3)	42.5 (3)	41.5 (2.5)	-0.6
GREEN	7.8	13	11.5	13	+5.2
INDEPENDENTS/ OTHERS	6.7	7	7	7	+0.3
TOTAL	100	100	100	100

				Election Day
TWO PARTY PREFERRED	2007 Federal election	Aug 18/19, 2010	Aug 20, 2010	Aug 21, 2010	Swing since 2007 Federal election
	%	%	%	%	%
ALP	52.7	51	51	51.5	-1.2
L-NP	47.3	49	49	48.5	+1.2
TOTAL	100	100	100	100

Analysis by Sex & Age

		Electors 18+	Analysis by Sex and Age
	2007 Federal election	August 21, 2010	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
ALP	52.7	51.5	46.5	56.5	59	58	56	45.5
L-NP	47.3	48.5	53.5	43.5	41	42	44	54.5
TOTAL	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Analysis by State

		Electors 18+	Analysis by State
	2007 Federal election	August 21, 2010	NSW	VIC	QLD	WA*	SA	TAS*
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
ALP	52.7	51.5	51	61	44	42	56.5	64
L-NP	47.3	48.5	49	39	56	58	43.5	36
TOTAL	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Swing by State		1.2% to L-NP	2.7% to L-NP	6.7% to ALP	6.4% to L-NP	4.7% to L-NP	4.1% to ALP	7.8% to ALP
Greens % vote	7.8	13	11	16.5	13.5	13	13	16

*Voting figures for Tasmania & Western Australia have been averaged including the Morgan Poll of August 18/19, 2010 due to small sample sizes in these States — in Western Australia caused by the time difference on Election day.

Electors were asked: “In the Federal Election being held today, which party will receive/has received your FIRST preference - would it be...?”

This special telephone Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted on Election Day with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,220 electors.

PolliGraph Results

The following are the Roy Morgan PolliGraph electors’ reactions to the Brisbane ‘Town Hall debates’ released on Channel 7 News last night and today in Crikey.

Julia Gillard: /graphics/Reactor/PeoplesForum/GillardForumClosing.wmv

Tony Abbott: /graphics/Reactor/PeoplesForum/AbbottForumClosing.wmv

For further information:

Gary Morgan:            Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:        Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

Margin of Error

The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.3	±3.8	±2.6	±1.9
1,000	±3.0	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4
1,500	±2.5	±2.2	±1.5	±1.1
2,000	±2.1	±1.9	±1.3	±1.0

Morgan Poll Voting Trend (July 27/28 — August 20, 2010)

								Election Day
	Phone	Face-to-Face	Phone	Face-to-Face	Phone	Face-to-Face	Phone	Phone
	July 27/28	July 31/ August 1	August 3	August 7/8	August 14	August 14/15	August 18/19	August 21
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
ALP	53	53	50	57.5	51	52	51	51.5
L-NP	47	47	50	42.5	49	48	49	48.5
ALP Lead	6%	6%	-	15%	2%	4%	2%	3%

SEAT BY SEAT ANALYSIS

NEW SOUTH WALES (48 SEATS)

ALP Hold (21)	ALP Gain (0)	L-NP Hold (19)	L-NP Gain (6)	Independents (2)
Banks		Berowra	Bennelong	Lyne
Barton		Bradfield	Dobell	New England
Blaxland		Calare	Lindsay
Charlton		Cook	Macquarie
Chifley		Cowper	Page
Cunningham		Farrer	Robertson
Eden-Monaro		Gilmore
Fowler		Greenway
Grayndler		Hughes
Hunter		Hume
Kingsford Smith		Macarthur
Lindsay		Mackellar
McMahon		Mitchell
Newcastle		North Sydney
Parramatta		Parkes
Reid		Paterson
Richmond		Riverina
Shortland		Warringah
Sydney		Wentworth
Throsby
Watson
Werriwa

VICTORIA (37 SEATS)

ALP Hold (20)	ALP Gain (2)	Greens Gain (1)	L-NP Hold (14)	L-NP Gain (0)
Ballarat	La Trobe	Melbourne	Aston
Batman	McEwen		Casey
Bendigo			Dunkley
Bruce			Flinders
Calwell			Gippsland
Chisholm			Goldstein
Corangamite			Higgins
Corio			Indi
Deakin			Kooyong
Gellibrand			Mallee
Gorton			McMillan
Holt			Menzies
Hotham			Murray
Isaacs			Wannon
Jagajaga
Lalor
Maribyrnong
Melbourne Ports
Scullin
Wills

QUEENSLAND (30 SEATS)

ALP Hold (10-11)	ALP Gain (1)	LNP Hold (13)	LNP Gain (4-5)	Independents (1)
Blair	Herbert	Bowman	Dawson	Kennedy
Bonner		Dickson	Flynn
Brisbane		Fadden	Forde
Capricornia		Fairfax	Leichhardt
Griffith		Fisher	Longman*
Lilley		Groom
Moreton		Hinkler
Oxley		Maranoa
Petrie		McPherson
Rankin		Moncrieff
Longman*		Ryan
		Wide Bay
		Wright

*Seats marked with an asterix (Longman) are very close and could go either way — to the ALP or LNP.

WESTERN AUSTRALIA (15 SEATS)

ALP Hold (2-3)	ALP Gain (0)	L-NP Hold (11)	L-NP Gain (1-2)
Fremantle		Canning	Hasluck
Perth		Cowan	Brand*
Brand*		Curtin
		Durack
		Forrest
		Moore
		O'Connor
		Pearce
		Stirling
		Swan
		Tangney

*Seats marked with an asterix (Brand) are very close and could go either way — to the ALP or L-NP.

SOUTH AUSTRALIA (11 SEATS)

ALP Hold (6)	ALP Gain (0-1)	L-NP Hold (4-5)	L-NP Gain (0)
Adelaide	Sturt*	Barker
Hindmarsh		Boothby
Kingston		Grey
Makin		Mayo
Port Adelaide		Sturt*
Wakefield

*Seats marked with an asterix (Sturt) are very close and could go either way — to the ALP or L-NP.

TASMANIA (5 SEATS)

ALP Hold (5)	ALP Gain (0)	L-NP Hold (0)	L-NP Gain (0)	In the Balance (0)
Bass
Braddon
Denison
Franklin
Lyons

NORTHERN TERRITORY (2 SEATS)

ALP Hold (1)	ALP Gain (0)	L-NP Hold (0)	L-NP Gain (1)	In the Balance (0)
Lingiari			Solomon

AUSTRALIAN CAPITAL TERRITORY (2 SEATS)

ALP Hold (2)	ALP Gain (0)	L-NP Hold (0)	L-NP Gain (0)	In the Balance (0)
Canberra
Fraser

OVERALL (150 SEATS)

ALP Hold (67-69)

ALP Gain (3-4)

L-NP Hold (61-62)

L-NP Gain (12-14)

Independents (3)

Greens Gain (1)

Special Election Day 7NEWS Morgan Poll — in 3 Key Marginals

LIB set to win Lindsay (NSW) — (LIB: 58% cf. ALP: 42%) — 14.8% swing to LIB

ALP set to win La Trobe (VIC) — (ALP: 54.5% cf. LIB: 45.5%) — 5% swing to ALP

ALP set to win Herbert (QLD) — (ALP: 53.5% cf. LIB: 46.5%) — 3.3% swing to ALP

Today’s special 7NEWS Morgan Poll conducted by telephone in three key marginals shows:

Gary Morgan says:

“The ALP is set to win Herbert and La Trobe but not the key NSW ALP held seat of Lindsay. Yesterday we said Lindsay and Greenway could go either way; as they adjoin each other — on today’s result Greenway would most likely stay Liberal.

“Those who had not yet voted, when surveyed, were overall more likely to be ALP than L-NP voter.

“The Greens vote in Lindsay and Herbert is about 3% lower among those who had voted. This suggests that the Greens vote will be lower than reported in national voting intention polls — however it is still likely to be much higher than at the last Federal election.

“In Victorian seat of La Trobe the Greens vote will be a record high 17% -there is no difference among those who have or haven’t voted.

“Some 6% of electors who had voted would not say who they had voted for.”

Electors were asked: “In the Federal election being held today — which party will receive your FIRST preference — would it be…”

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted today in the key marginal seats of La Trobe in Victoria, Lindsay in New South Wales and Herbert in Queensland (August 21, 2010) with a representative cross-section of 299 electors and in La Trobe, 303 electors in Lindsay and 299 electors in Herbert.

NEW SOUTH WALES

Lindsay (Western Sydney — Penrith, Oxley Park, Emu Plains, Glenmore Park, Werrington, Jamisontown)

(Projected: L-NP gain)

In Lindsay ALP primary support is 36%, Liberal 51.5%, Greens 4.5% and Independents/ Others 8%

This translates into a Two-Party preferred vote of Liberals 58% representing a massive swing of 14.8% to the Liberals since the last Federal election and a definite L-NP gain.

Primary Voting Intention

	2007 Federal Election November 24, 2007	Telephone Morgan Poll August 21, 2010	If Voted
			Voted	Not voted
	%	%	%	%
ALP	51.4	36	35	37
Liberal	38.2	51.5	54.5	48.5
Greens	3.4	4.5	3	6.5
Independents/ Others	7.0	8	7.5	8
Total	100	100	100	100
% Undecided		6	3.5	8.5

Two-Party Preferred

	2007 Federal Election November 24, 2007	Telephone Morgan Poll August 21, 2010	Change 2007 Election — Present	If Voted
				Voted	Not voted
	%	%	%	%	%
ALP	56.8	42	-14.8	40	44
Liberal	43.2	58	+14.8	60	56
Total	100	100		100	100
% Undecided		9.5		6	13

303 electors were polled in the electorate of Lindsay. Of all electors surveyed, 6% of electors did not nominate a party.

VICTORIA

La Trobe (Outer Eastern Melbourne — Belgrave, Upwey, Ferntree Gully, Gembrook, Beaconsfield, Berwick, Narre Warren North)

(Projected: ALP gain)

In La Trobe ALP primary support is 38.5%, Liberal 40.5%, Greens 17% and Independents/ Others 4%

This translates into a Two-Party preferred vote of ALP 54.5% and represents a swing of 5% to the ALP since the last Federal election and a Labor gain.

Primary Voting Intention

	2007 Federal Election November 24, 2007	Telephone Morgan Poll August 21, 2010	If Voted
			Voted	Not voted
	%	%	%	%
ALP	40.4	38.5	37	40
Liberal	46.5	40.5	41	39.5
Greens	8.8	17	17	17
Independents/ Others	4.3	4	5	3.5
Total	100	100	100	100
% Undecided		10	7	13.5

Two-Party Preferred

	2007 Federal Election November 24, 2007	Telephone Morgan Poll August 21, 2010	Change 2007 Election — Present	If Voted
				Voted	Not voted
	%	%	%	%	%
ALP	49.5	54.5	+5.0	53.5	56.5
Liberal	50.5	45.5	-5.0	46.5	43.5
Total	100	100		100	100
% Undecided		13.5		10.5	16.5

299 electors were polled in the electorate of La Trobe. Of all electors surveyed, a high 10% of electors did not nominate a party.

QUEENSLAND

Herbert (Townsville, Rangewood, Bluewater, Lynam, Douglas, Kelso, Jensen)

(Projected: ALP gain)

In Herbert ALP primary support is 44%, Liberal 42%, Greens 8% and Independents/ Others 6%

This translates into a Two-Party preferred vote of XX% and represents a swing of XX% since the last Federal election and a Labor gain.

Primary Voting Intention

	2007 Federal Election November 24, 2007	Telephone Morgan Poll August 21, 2010	If Voted
			Voted	Not voted
	%	%	%	%
ALP	43.8	44	44.5	43
Liberal	45.7	42	41.5	42
Greens	5.1	8	7	10
Independents/ Others	5.4	6	7	5
Total	100	100	100	100
% Undecided		10	4.5	17

Two-Party Preferred

	2007 Federal Election November 24, 2007	Telephone Morgan Poll August 21, 2010	Change 2007 Election — Present	If Voted
				Voted	Not voted
	%	%	%	%	%
ALP	50.2	53.5	+3.3	52	55
Liberal	49.8	46.5	-3.3	48	45
Total	100	100		100	100
% Undecided		13		6	20.5

299 electors were polled in the electorate of Herbert. Of all electors surveyed, a high 10% of electors did not nominate

For further information:

Gary Morgan:      Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

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