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by Gary Morgan, Michele Levine and Julian McCrann
The new Government of Australia is now known after Australia’s first ‘Hung Parliament’ since the 1940s. As of the final AEC 2010 Federal election figures the 7 NEWS Morgan Poll was clearly the most accurate of the 4 major polls. The 7NEWS Morgan Poll had a Primary vote average error on the parties — ALP, L-NP, Greens and Independent/ Others of only 0.7%. Our Two Party preferred vote had an average error of only 0.9%. The Newspoll Primary vote average error was 1.05%; Two Party preferred vote had an average error of 0.1%.The Nielsen Primary vote average error was 1.1%; Two-Party preferred vote had an average error of 1.9%; The Galaxy Primary vote average error was 1.3%; Two-Party preferred vote had an average error of 1.9%. Below is the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) % vote count as of now compared with the final 7NEWS Morgan Poll released on www.roymorgan.com at 1.26am Saturday morning and released at 7am on Saturday Morning Ch 7 Sunrise (Aug 21, 2010), and again reported just after 10am by Michele Levine on ABC 24 TV.
FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION — Primary Vote Predictions
FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION — Two Party Preferred Predictions
Australian Electoral Commission (http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-15508-NAT.htm). Final AEC Election results.
The 7NEWS Morgan Poll was the first poll to call a ‘Hung Parliament,’ first announced by Michele Levine on Insiders (ABC 2 TV) on Sunday August 15, 2010. (Morgan - ‘Hung Parliament,’ Newspoll — ‘Hung Parliament,’ Galaxy and Nielsen - both ALP win) — Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on Primary vote for the 2007 Federal Election! Note the Greens vote was reduced after the Morgan Poll re-interviewed Greens and ‘Undecided’ electors — the result was what we have previously found. 15% of Greens voters change when at the polling booths!
For further information: Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094 Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093 |
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