Home |  site-map |  indonesia |  indonesian-single-source-articles |  asteroid-user-registration |

Roy Morgan OZ Panel Login  |  Mail Diary Panel Login |   careers |  contact-us |

The first telephone Morgan Poll conducted since last Saturday’s inconclusive Federal election shows the ALP (51.5%, up 1% from the Federal election) just ahead of the L-NP (48.5%, down 1%).

The ALP primary vote is 36% (down 2.4% from Saturday’s Federal election), clearly behind the L-NP 40% (down 3.6%). Support for the Greens 13% (1.6% higher than at the Federal election) and Others/ Independents 11% (up 4.4%).

For the first time since the ALP won the 2007 Federal election more electors (42%, up 24% since August 18/19, 2010) think the L-NP will win the next Federal election compared to only 33.5% (down 26%) who think the ALP will win according to a telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the last two nights.

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 112.0pts (up 8pts since August 18/19, 2010), with 45% (up 2.5%) of Australians confident that Australia is ‘heading in the right direction,’ compared to 33% (down 5.5%) that say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction.’ The latest weekly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for the weekend of August 21/22, 2010 was unchanged at 124.6.

The Morgan Poll was within 0.5% on the Two-Party preferred vote at Saturday’s Federal election, well within the ‘Margin of Error,’ and the Morgan Poll was easily the most accurate on the individual party’s share of the vote and was the first to call a ‘Hung Parliament’ (Saturday August 14, 2010).

Gary Morgan says:

“After the closest Federal election in living memory there is still no clear winner with the L-NP (73 seats) just ahead of the ALP (72) while 4 Independents and 1 Green hold the ‘Balance of Power.’

“Today’s Morgan Poll shows the ALP (51.5%, up 1% since the Federal election) continues to hold a narrow lead over the L-NP (48.5%, down 1%) on a Two-Party preferred basis although as the Federal election has shown a narrow lead across the nation does not necessarily provide a majority of seats in Federal Parliament.

“A quick analysis of the Federal election shows that although the ALP won a majority of seats in a majority of States: New South Wales (26/48), Victoria (22/37), South Australia (6/11) and Tasmania (4/5), the ‘complete rejection’ of the ALP by Australia’s two big ‘Mining States’ — Queensland (LNP won 21/30) and WA (LNP won 12/15) meant the LNP won more seats across Australia despite only winning more seats in these two States.

”A special SMS Morgan Poll taken Sunday night (sample: 2,008 electors) after the inconclusive Federal election showed if another Election had been held electors were of a mind to give their vote to a major party (ALP up 2%, L-NP up 2%, Greens down 2%, Others down 2%).

“However since the public profile of the Independents has increased and they have been seen negotiating with the major parties the electorate has come in behind them today the Greens/ Others and Independents are receiving 24% of the primary vote.”

Electors were asked: “If a Federal Election for the House of Representatives were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?”

This telephone Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two nights, August 25/26, 2010, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 530 electors.

PolliGraph Results

The following are the Roy Morgan PolliGraph electors’ reactions to the Brisbane ‘Town Hall debates’ released on Channel 7 News last night and today in Crikey.

Julia Gillard: /graphics/Reactor/PeoplesForum/GillardForumClosing.wmv

Tony Abbott: /graphics/Reactor/PeoplesForum/AbbottForumClosing.wmv

For further information:

Gary Morgan:            Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:        Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

Margin of Error

The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.3	±3.8	±2.6	±1.9
1,000	±3.0	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4
1,500	±2.5	±2.2	±1.5	±1.1
2,000	±2.1	±1.9	±1.3	±1.0

During the period:

• Federal election inconclusive after neither ALP nor L-NP secure majority

Australia faces its first ‘Hung Parliament’ in 70 years after the weekend’s Federal election produced no clear winner. As the AEC continued counting, latest results indicate that the L-NP will win the most seats (73), just ahead of the ALP (72), with the Greens (1) and Independents (4) sharing the ‘Balance of Power.’

• Tony Abbott & Julia Gillard in final sprint to the finish
  Opposition Leader Tony Abbott and Prime Minister Julia Gillard are expected to set a frenetic pace over the next two days as campaigning wraps up ahead of Saturday's election.
  
• Opposition Leader Tony Abbott pledges cash for insulation companies
  A Coalition government would provide $30 million to help businesses squeezed by the scrapped home insulation program, Tony Abbott has announced.
  
• Opposition Leader Tony Abbott still standing in battle for power
  Tony Abbott says he has worked as hard as he can to win office as he continues his 36-hour non-stop campaign to become Prime Minister.
  
• Prime Minister Julia Gillard goes negative on election eve
  Julia Gillard is using the last day of the campaign to mount a strident and negative attack on Tony Abbott, warning voters he is a risk to their future prosperity.
  
• Bob Katter's victory renews vow 'rural Australia will survive'
  Among the independents who now hold the balance of power is the member for the Queensland seat of Kennedy, Bob Katter, as well as fellow rural independents Rob Oakeshott of Lyne (NSW) and Tony Windsor of New England (NSW).
  
• Surfer dies after shark attack
  A 31-year-old surfer has died after being attacked by a shark at a beach near Gracetown, south of Perth, this morning.
  
• Second boat intercepted in as many days
  Another aslyum seeker boat has arrived in Australian waters, the second in the past two days.
  
• Judge orders woman to remove face veil
  A Perth judge has ruled a Muslim woman must remove her face veil when she gives evidence in a fraud trial.
  
• Last US combat brigade pulls out of Iraq: US media
  The last US combat brigade pulled out of Iraq and crossed into Kuwait almost seven-and-a-half years after the US-led invasion to oust Saddam Hussein, US media is reporting.
  
• Defence bans soldiers from wearing berets
  The Defence Force has banned Australian soldiers from wearing traditional berets, partly because of worries about sun exposure.

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

			The	Family	Ind./
	ALP	L-NP	Greens	First#*	Others
RECENT ELECTION RESULTS	%	%	%	%	%
Election March 2, 1996	38.8	47.3 (8.6)	1.7	-	12.2
Election October 3^, 1998	40.1	39.5 (5.3)	2.1	-	18.3
Election November 10, 2001	37.8	43 (5.6)	4.4	-	13.8
Election October 9, 2004	37.6	46.4 (5.9)	7.2	2.0	6.8
Election November 24, 2007	43.4	42.1 (5.9)	7.8	2.0	4.7
Election, August 21, 2010	38.4	43.6 (3.8)	11.4	2.2	4.4
MORGAN POLL
August 22/23, 2010 (SMS)	40.5	44.5	10	**	5
August 25/26, 2010 (Phone)	36	40 (3)	13	2	9

Note: National Party results are in brackets. # Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.

^ 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.

* The Family First Party were included as an option on Federal Voting Intention from October 30, 2004.

**Family First were not reported in the SMS Morgan Poll of August 22/23, 2010.

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)

	ALP	L-NP
	%	%
Election, March 2, 1996	46.4	53.6
Election, October 3^, 1998	51	49
Election, November 10, 2001	49	51
Election, October 9, 2004	47.3	52.7
Election, November 24, 2007	52.7	47.3
Election, August 21, 2010	50.5	49.5
	Preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2007 election		Preferences distributed by how electors say they will vote
	%	%	%	%
MORGAN POLL	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP
August 22/23, 2010 (SMS)	50.5	49.5	50.5	49.5
August 25/26, 2010 (Phone)	51	49	51.5	48.5

^ 1998 Federal Election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.

THINK WILL WIN

Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal Election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"

Think Will Win	ALP	L-NP	Can't Say
	%	%	%
August 18/19, 2010 (Phone)	59.5	18	22.5
August 25/26, 2010 (Phone)	33.5	42	24.5

AUSTRALIA HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION

Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

	Interviewing Dates — ALP Government (Julia Gillard v Tony Abbott)
	June 25-28	June 26/27 & July 3/4	July 10/11	July 17/18	July 20/21	July 24/25	July 27/28	July 31/ Aug 1	Aug 3	Aug 7/8	Aug 14	Aug 14/15	Aug 18/19	Aug 25/26
	Phone	Face	Face	Face	Phone	Face	Phone	Face	Phone	Face	Phone	Face	Phone	Phone
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Right direction	54.5	55.5	54.5	52	54.5	51	51.5	52	50	54	51	53	42.5	45
Wrong direction	29.5	24.5	23.5	28.5	32.5	27	31	28	34.5	27.5	35	28	38.5	33
Roy Morgan GCR*	125	131	131	123.5	122	124	120.5	124	115.5	126.5	116	125	104	112
Can’t say	16	20	22	19.5	13	22	17.5	20	15.5	18.5	14	19	19	22
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Phone: Telephone survey method; Face: Face-to-face survey method.

* Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (100 plus the difference between the percentage of people who say the country is “going in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “going in seriously the wrong direction”).

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4
1,500	±2.6	±2.2	±1.5	±1.1
2,000	±2.2	±1.9	±1.3	±1

The Morgan Poll was the most accurate of all polling companies at the 2007 Federal Election for both primary vote and two-party preferred predictions (sample 2,115 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland Election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian Election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors). The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.

Note: The recent discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading.

The following included comment says it all: “I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%).  Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll.  On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s.”

View Federal Voting Intention Trend

The Roy Morgan Research Centre conducts the Morgan Poll in Australia and New Zealand and is the Gallup International Association Member

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

© 2012 Roy Morgan Research. All Rights Reserved
privacy-statement