Julia Gillard still Preferred as Prime Minister
| Finding No. 4576 -
This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted on the nights of August 25/26, 2010, with an Australia-wide cross section of 530 electors.:
August 27, 2010 |
Prime Minister Julia Gillard (44%, down 4%) is still preferred as Prime Minister over Opposition Leader Tony Abbott (36%, down 1%) according to a special telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the last two nights (August 26/27, 2010).
Despite more electors preferring Gillard as Prime Minister, more approve of the way Opposition Leader Tony Abbott is handling his job than Julia Gillard. Now 53%, (up 1% since the telephone Morgan Poll of August 3, 2010) approve of Abbott’s handling of his job while 49% (up 3%) approve of the way Julia Gillard is handling her job as Prime Minister.
The jump in Abbott’s approval rating is driven by a strong increase in women’s approval of the Opposition Leader (54%, up 5%) and a lower disapproval rate amongst women (35%, down 5%). A majority of men (52%, down 2%) approve of Abbott’s handling of the job compared to 41% (up 4%) that disapprove.
Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s job approval is up 3% to 49% from August 3, 2010. Gillard’s approval by women is (50%, up 4%) and by men (48%, up 3%). Overall, both more women (50%) and men (48%) approve of Gillard than disapprove — women (34%, down 4%); men (40%, down 1%).
Gary Morgan says:
“This special telephone Morgan Poll taken over the last two nights (August 25/26, 2010) shows that Prime Minister Julia Gillard (44%, down 4%) is still considered the ‘Better PM’ than Opposition Leader Tony Abbott (36%, down 1%) despite her failure to lead the ALP to a victory in the Federal election last weekend.
“The relative performance of the two Leaders is more clearly reflected in how electors rate each Leader’s ‘handling of his/her job’ with 53% (up 1%) of Australians approving of Abbott’s ‘handling of his job as Opposition Leader’ compared to 49% (up 3%) that approve of Gillard’s ‘handling of her job as Prime Minister.’”
This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted on the nights of August 25/26, 2010, with an Australia-wide cross section of 530 electors.
Julia Gillard vs. Tony Abbott — By Gender
Better Prime Minister: Gillard vs. Abbott
Respondents were asked: “Thinking of Ms. Gillard and Mr. Abbott. In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister — Ms. Gillard or Mr. Abbott?”
| |
Electors 18+ |
Men |
Women |
| |
Jul 27/28,
2010 |
Aug 3,
2010 |
Aug 25/26,
2010 |
Jul 27/28,
2010 |
Aug 3,
2010 |
Aug 25/26,
2010 |
Jul 27/28,
2010 |
Aug 3,
2010 |
Aug 25/26,
2010 |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Gillard |
48 |
48 |
44 |
45 |
48 |
41 |
52 |
49 |
48 |
|
Abbott |
33 |
37 |
36 |
39 |
39 |
39 |
29 |
35 |
33 |
|
Gillard lead |
15 |
11 |
8 |
6 |
9 |
2 |
23 |
14 |
15 |
|
Other / Neither |
19 |
15 |
20 |
16 |
13 |
20 |
19 |
16 |
19 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
Approval of Leaders — Julia Gillard vs. Tony Abbott
Prime Minister: Julia Gillard
Respondents were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Ms. Gillard is handling her job as Prime Minister?”
Analysis by Sex (Approve/ Disapprove — Julia Gillard)
| |
Electors 18+ |
Men |
Women |
| |
Jul 27/28,
2010 |
Aug 3,
2010 |
Aug 25/26,
2010 |
Jul 27/28,
2010 |
Aug 3,
2010 |
Aug 25/26,
2010 |
Jul 27/28,
2010 |
Aug 3,
2010 |
Aug 25/26,
2010 |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Approve |
46 |
46 |
49 |
40 |
45 |
48 |
51 |
46 |
50 |
|
Disapprove |
37 |
39 |
37 |
40 |
41 |
40 |
34 |
38 |
34 |
|
Approve — Disapprove |
9 |
7 |
12 |
0 |
4 |
8 |
17 |
8 |
16 |
|
Can’t say |
17 |
15 |
14 |
20 |
14 |
12 |
15 |
16 |
16 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
Opposition Leader: Tony Abbott
Respondents were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Abbott is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition?”
Analysis by Sex (Approve/ Disapprove — Tony Abbott)
| |
Electors 18+ |
Men |
Women |
| |
Jul 27/28,
2010 |
Aug 3,
2010 |
Aug 25/26,
2010 |
Jul 27/28,
2010 |
Aug 3,
2010 |
Aug 25/26,
2010 |
Jul 27/28,
2010 |
Aug 3,
2010 |
Aug 25/26,
2010 |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Approve |
46 |
52 |
53 |
51 |
54 |
52 |
41 |
49 |
54 |
|
Disapprove |
40 |
38 |
38 |
37 |
37 |
41 |
43 |
40 |
35 |
|
Approve — Disapprove |
6 |
14 |
15 |
14 |
17 |
11 |
(2) |
9 |
19 |
|
Can’t say |
14 |
10 |
9 |
12 |
9 |
7 |
16 |
11 |
11 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
Better Prime Minister: Gillard v Abbott
Respondents were asked: “Thinking of Ms. Gillard and Mr. Abbott. In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister — Ms. Gillard or Mr. Abbott?”
| |
Rudd v Turnbull |
Rudd v Abbott |
Gillard v Abbott |
| |
Oct 7/8,
2009 |
Dec 2/3,
2009 |
May 4/5,
2010 |
May 12/13,
2010 |
June 25-28,
2010 |
July 20/21,
2010 |
July 27/28,
2010 |
Aug 3,
2010 |
Aug 25/26,
2010 |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Gillard |
69 |
60 |
53 |
49 |
49 |
58 |
48 |
48 |
44 |
|
Abbott |
18 |
25 |
32 |
37 |
34 |
29 |
33 |
37 |
36 |
|
Gillard lead |
51 |
35 |
21 |
12 |
15 |
29 |
15 |
11 |
8 |
|
Other / Can’t say |
13 |
15 |
15 |
14 |
17 |
13 |
19 |
15 |
20 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
| |
Electors 18+ |
Analysis by Federal Voting Intention |
| |
Aug 25/26,
2010 |
ALP |
Lib |
Nat# |
The Greens |
Family First# |
Ind/ Other# |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Gillard |
44 |
86 |
6 |
- |
66 |
- |
43 |
|
Abbott |
36 |
3 |
79 |
69 |
11 |
66 |
17 |
|
Gillard lead |
8 |
83 |
(73) |
(69) |
55 |
(66) |
26 |
|
Other / Neither |
20 |
11 |
15 |
31 |
23 |
34 |
40 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.
| |
Electors 18+ |
Analysis by Sex & Age |
| |
Aug 25/26,
2010 |
Men |
Women |
18-24 |
25-34 |
35-49 |
50+ |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Gillard |
44 |
41 |
48 |
62 |
45 |
43 |
42 |
|
Abbott |
36 |
39 |
33 |
25 |
38 |
31 |
40 |
|
Gillard lead |
8 |
2 |
15 |
37 |
7 |
12 |
2 |
|
Other / Neither |
20 |
20 |
19 |
13 |
17 |
26 |
18 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
Approval of Leaders — Julia Gillard v Tony Abbott
Prime Minister: Julia Gillard
Respondents were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Ms. Gillard is handling her job as Prime Minister?”
| |
Prime Minister Rudd |
Prime Minister Gillard |
| |
Jan 13/14,
2010 |
May 4/5,
2010 |
May 12/13,
2010 |
June 25-28,
2010 |
July 20/21,
2010 |
July 27/28,
2010 |
Aug 3,
2010 |
Aug 25/26, 2010 |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Approve |
50 |
42 |
36 |
40 |
58 |
46 |
46 |
49 |
|
Disapprove |
35 |
49 |
55 |
24 |
26 |
37 |
39 |
37 |
|
Approve - Disapprove |
15 |
(7) |
(19) |
16 |
32 |
9 |
7 |
12 |
|
Can’t say |
15 |
9 |
9 |
36 |
16 |
17 |
15 |
14 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
| |
Electors 18+ |
Analysis by Federal Voting Intention |
| |
Aug 25/26, 2010 |
ALP |
Lib |
Nat# |
The
Greens |
Family
First# |
Ind/
Other# |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Approve |
49 |
82 |
21 |
31 |
57 |
- |
48 |
|
Disapprove |
37 |
11 |
64 |
45 |
25 |
66 |
37 |
|
Approve - Disapprove |
12 |
71 |
(43) |
(14) |
32 |
(66) |
11 |
|
Can’t say |
14 |
7 |
15 |
24 |
18 |
34 |
15 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.
| |
Electors 18+ |
Analysis by Sex & Age |
| |
Aug 25/26, 2010 |
Men |
Women |
18-24 |
25-34 |
35-49 |
50+ |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Approve |
49 |
48 |
50 |
54 |
51 |
51 |
46 |
|
Disapprove |
37 |
40 |
34 |
25 |
37 |
35 |
40 |
|
Approve - Disapprove |
12 |
8 |
16 |
29 |
14 |
16 |
6 |
|
Can’t say |
14 |
12 |
16 |
21 |
12 |
14 |
14 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
Opposition Leader: Tony Abbott
Respondents were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Abbott is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition?”
| |
Tony Abbott as Opposition Leader |
| |
Jan 13/14,
2010 |
May 4/5,
2010 |
May 12/13,
2010 |
June 25-28,
2010 |
July 20/21,
2010 |
July 27/28,
2010 |
Aug 3,
2010 |
Aug 25/26,
2010 |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Approve |
41 |
40.5 |
44 |
48 |
42 |
46 |
52 |
53 |
|
Disapprove |
32 |
41.5 |
46 |
41 |
48 |
40 |
38 |
38 |
|
Approve - Disapprove |
9 |
(1) |
(2) |
7 |
(6) |
6 |
14 |
15 |
|
Can’t say |
27 |
18 |
10 |
11 |
10 |
14 |
10 |
9 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
| |
Electors 18+ |
Analysis by Federal Voting Intention |
| |
Aug 25/26,
2010 |
ALP |
Lib |
Nat# |
The
Greens |
Family
First# |
Ind/
Other# |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Approve |
53 |
35 |
80 |
50 |
41 |
66 |
41 |
|
Disapprove |
38 |
58 |
13 |
38 |
48 |
17 |
55 |
|
Approve - Disapprove |
15 |
(23) |
67 |
12 |
(7) |
49 |
(14) |
|
Can’t say |
9 |
7 |
7 |
12 |
11 |
17 |
4 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.
| |
Electors 18+ |
Analysis by Sex & Age |
| |
Aug 25/26,
2010 |
Men |
Women |
18-24 |
25-34 |
35-49 |
50+ |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Approve |
53 |
52 |
54 |
43 |
60 |
49 |
55 |
|
Disapprove |
38 |
41 |
35 |
40 |
31 |
43 |
36 |
|
Approve - Disapprove |
15 |
11 |
19 |
3 |
29 |
6 |
19 |
|
Can’t say |
9 |
7 |
11 |
17 |
9 |
8 |
9 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094
Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.
|
Sample Size |
Percentage Estimate |
| |
40%-60% |
25% or 75% |
10% or 90% |
5% or 95% |
|
500 |
±4.5 |
±3.9 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
|
1,000 |
±3.2 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
±1.4 |
The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.
|
