National-led Government (52.5%, down 0.5%) lose ground on Opposition Parties 47.5%)
Smallest lead since 2008 New Zealand Election
| Finding No. 4586 -
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 820 electors from September 20 – October 3, 2010. Of all electors surveyed, 8.5% (up 3%) did not name a party.:
October 12, 2010 |
The latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows support for John Key’s National-led Government has weakened slightly to 52.5% (down 0.5%), comprising National Party 49.5% (up 1%), Maori Party 2.5% (up 1%), ACT NZ 0.5% (down 1.5%) and United Future 0% (down 1%).
Support for Opposition Parties has risen to 47.5% (up 0.5%); Labour Party 36.5% (up 2.5%), Greens 8% (unchanged), New Zealand First 2.5% (down 2%), Progressive Party 0% (down 0.5%) and Others 0.5% (up 0.5%).
If a National Election were held today the National Party would be returned to Government.
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is up 9.5 points to 139.5 with 61.5% (up 3.5%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 22% (down 6%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction.’
Gary Morgan says:
“Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a small drop in support for the National-led Government (52.5%, down 0.5%) for the fourth straight interviewing period. The lead over the Opposition Parties (47.5%, up 0.5%) is now at its narrowest since just after the General Election in November 2008.
“Despite the fall for the Government as a whole, the main governing National Party (49.5%, up 1%) has increased its own support at the expense of its Coalition partners — two of whom lost support. The main Opposition Labour Party (36.5%, up 2.5%) has increased its support to its highest since former Labour Prime Minister Helen Clark lost the 2008 New Zealand Election.”
Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 820 electors from September 20 — October 3, 2010. Of all electors surveyed, 8.5% (up 3%) did not name a party.
VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY
The following table compares the latest NZ Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the November 8, 2008 General Election:
|
PRIMARY VOTE |
National |
Labour |
Green
Party |
ACT
NZ |
Maori
Party* |
United
Future |
Progressive Party |
NZ
First |
Other |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
General Election, July 27, 2002 |
20.9 |
41.3 |
7 |
7.1 |
n/a |
6.7 |
1.7 |
10.4 |
4.9 |
|
General Election, September 17, 2005 |
39.1 |
41.1 |
5.3 |
1.51 |
2.12 |
2.67 |
1.16 |
5.72 |
1.32 |
|
General Election, November 8, 2008 |
44.93 |
33.99 |
6.72 |
3.65 |
2.39 |
0.87 |
0.91 |
4.07 |
2.47 |
|
MORGAN POLL |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
November 17-30, 2008 |
44 |
32.5 |
9.5 |
4 |
3.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
1.5 |
|
December 1-14, 2008 |
47 |
31.5 |
9.5 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
0.5 |
3 |
1.5 |
|
January 2-18, 2009 |
48 |
33 |
8 |
3 |
3.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
|
January 19 - February 1, 2009 |
48 |
31 |
9 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
3 |
0.5 |
|
February 2-15, 2009 |
48.5 |
32 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
1.5 |
2 |
|
February 16 - March 1, 2009 |
56 |
26 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
^ |
2.5 |
1.5 |
|
March 2-15, 2009 |
54.5 |
29 |
8 |
2.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
2 |
1 |
|
March 23 - April 5, 2009 |
50.5 |
28 |
9.5 |
4 |
3.5 |
1 |
^ |
2.5 |
1 |
|
April 6-19, 2009 |
50 |
32.5 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
^ |
2 |
0.5 |
|
April 20 - May 3, 2009 |
55 |
30.5 |
7 |
2 |
2 |
^ |
0.5 |
2 |
1 |
|
May 4-17, 2009 |
52 |
31.5 |
9.5 |
2 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
May 18-31, 2009 |
52 |
31 |
8.5 |
2 |
3 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
June 1-14, 2009 |
52 |
33 |
7.5 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
June 22 - July 5, 2009 |
54 |
31.5 |
8 |
1 |
3 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
July 6-19, 2009 |
52 |
30 |
10 |
1 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
^ |
2 |
1 |
|
July 20 - August 2, 2009 |
53.5 |
34 |
7 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
^ |
1 |
^ |
|
August 3-16, 2009 |
53.5 |
32.5 |
8.5 |
1 |
2 |
0.5 |
^ |
2 |
^ |
|
August 17-30, 2009 |
56.5 |
29.5 |
8 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
August 31 - September 13, 2009 |
51.5 |
33.5 |
7.5 |
2 |
2.5 |
^ |
0.5 |
2.5 |
^ |
|
September 21 - October 4, 2009 |
57.5 |
28 |
6.5 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
^ |
2 |
1 |
|
October 5-18, 2009 |
53 |
30 |
7.5 |
2.5 |
3 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
|
October 19 - November 1, 2009 |
55.5 |
29 |
7.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
November 2-15, 2009 |
51.5 |
33 |
6.5 |
2.5 |
2 |
1 |
^ |
2.5 |
1 |
|
November 16-29, 2009 |
53.5 |
30.5 |
7 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
^ |
^ |
2.5 |
1.5 |
|
November 30 - December 13, 2009 |
54 |
27.5 |
9.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
^ |
4 |
1.5 |
|
January 4-17, 2010 |
53 |
30 |
8 |
2 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
|
January 18-31, 2010 |
52 |
32 |
6 |
2 |
3 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
|
February 1-14, 2010 |
52 |
33 |
8 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
^ |
2 |
0.5 |
|
February 15-28, 2010 |
53.5 |
31.5 |
8 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
^ |
0.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
|
March 1-14, 2010 |
51.5 |
33.5 |
6.5 |
2.5 |
2 |
1 |
0.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
|
March 22 - April 4, 2010 |
49 |
33 |
7.5 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
0.5 |
3 |
1 |
|
April 5-18, 2010 |
49.5 |
34 |
7.5 |
1 |
4 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
|
April 19 - May 2, 2010 |
49 |
33.5 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
3 |
1 |
|
May 3-16, 2010 |
48.5 |
33.5 |
9 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
3 |
^ |
|
May 17-30, 2010 |
52.5 |
30 |
9.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
^ |
|
May 31 - June 13, 2010 |
50.5 |
33 |
9.5 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
^ |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
June 21 - July 4, 2010 |
53 |
29 |
8.5 |
2 |
3 |
0.5 |
^ |
3 |
1 |
|
July 5-18, 2010 |
49 |
31.5 |
9 |
2 |
3 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
^ |
|
July 19 - August 1, 2010 |
51 |
33.5 |
6.5 |
2 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
|
August 2-15, 2010 |
50 |
33.5 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
3 |
0.5 |
^ |
3.5 |
0.5 |
|
August 16-29, 2010 |
49.5 |
32.5 |
8.5 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
^ |
3.5 |
1 |
|
August 30 - September 12, 2010 |
48.5 |
34 |
8 |
2 |
1.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
^ |
|
September 20 - October 3, 2010 |
49.5 |
36.5 |
8 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
^ |
^ |
2.5 |
0.5 |
*The Maori Party was launched in July 2004; ^ Result less than 0.5%.
VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - National Party-led Government v All Opposition Parties
The following table compares the latest NZ Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the November 8, 2008 General Election:
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE |
National Party-led
Government* |
Opposition
Parties# |
| |
% |
% |
|
General Election, November 8, 2008 |
51.84 |
48.16 |
|
MORGAN POLL |
|
|
|
November 17-30, 2008 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
|
December 1-14, 2008 |
54 |
46 |
|
January 2-18, 2009 |
55.5 |
44.5 |
|
January 19 - February 1, 2009 |
56 |
44 |
|
February 2-15, 2009 |
55 |
45 |
|
February 16 - March 1, 2009 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
|
March 2-15, 2009 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
|
March 23 - April 5, 2009 |
59 |
41 |
|
April 6-19, 2009 |
56.5 |
43.5 |
|
April 20 - May 3, 2009 |
59 |
41 |
|
May 4-17, 2009 |
57 |
43 |
|
May 18-31, 2009 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
June 1-14, 2009 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
June 22 - July 5, 2009 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
|
July 6-19, 2009 |
57 |
43 |
|
July 20 - August 2, 2009 |
58 |
42 |
|
August 3-16, 2009 |
57 |
43 |
|
August 17-30, 2009 |
60 |
40 |
|
August 31 - September 13, 2009 |
56 |
44 |
|
September 21 - October 4, 2009 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
|
October 5-18, 2009 |
59 |
41 |
|
October 19 - November 1, 2009 |
60.5 |
39.5 |
|
November 2-15, 2009 |
57 |
43 |
|
November 16-29, 2009 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
|
November 30 - December 13, 2009 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
January 4-17, 2010 |
58 |
42 |
|
January 18-31, 2010 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
February 1-14, 2010 |
56.5 |
43.5 |
|
February 15-28, 2010 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
March 1-14, 2010 |
57 |
43 |
|
March 22 - April 4, 2010 |
55 |
45 |
|
April 5-18, 2010 |
55 |
45 |
|
April 19 - May 2, 2010 |
53.5 |
46.5 |
|
May 3-16, 2010 |
54 |
46 |
|
May 17-30, 2010 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
May 31 - June 13, 2010 |
55.5 |
44.5 |
|
June 21 - July 4, 2010 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
|
July 5-18, 2010 |
54.5 |
45.5 |
|
July 19 - August 1, 2010 |
57 |
43 |
|
August 2-15, 2010 |
55 |
45 |
|
August 16-29, 2010 |
54.5 |
45.5 |
|
August 30 - September 12, 2010 |
53 |
47 |
|
September 20 - October 3, 2010 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
*National-led Government: National Party, Maori Party, ACT NZ, United Future; #Opposition Parties: Labour Party, Green Party, Progressive Party, NZ First, Other.
NEW ZEALAND: HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION?
Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in New Zealand are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”
|
|
New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (Government of John Key): Interviewing Dates |
|
|
June 22-July 5,
2009 |
July 6-19,
2009 |
July 20-Aug 2,
2009 |
Aug 3-16,
2009 |
Aug 17-30,
2009 |
Aug 31-Sep 13,
2009 |
Sep 21-Oct 4,
2009 |
Oct 5-18,
2009 |
Oct 19-Nov 1,
2009 |
Nov 2-15,
2009 |
Nov 16-29,
2009 |
Nov 30-Dec 13,
2009 |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Right direction |
63 |
66.5 |
66 |
66.5 |
65.5 |
67.5 |
72 |
67.5 |
66.5 |
64.5 |
66 |
62.5 |
|
Wrong direction |
23 |
20.5 |
18.5 |
21.5 |
22 |
24.5 |
16.5 |
21.5 |
20.5 |
22.5 |
22 |
25 |
|
Roy Morgan GCR# |
140 |
146 |
147.5 |
145 |
143.5 |
143 |
155.5 |
146 |
146 |
142 |
144 |
137.5 |
|
Can’t say |
14 |
13 |
15.5 |
12 |
12.5 |
8 |
11.5 |
11 |
13 |
13 |
12 |
12.5 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
# Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).
|
|
New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (Government of John Key): Interviewing Dates |
|
|
Jan 4-17,
2010 |
Jan 18-31,
2010 |
Feb 1-14,
2010 |
Feb 15-28,
2010 |
Mar 1-14,
2010 |
Mar 22-Apr 4,
2010 |
Apr 5-18,
2010 |
Apr 19-May 2,
2010 |
May 3-16,
2010 |
May 17-30,
2010 |
May 31-June 13,
2010 |
June 21-July 4,
2010 |
July 5-18,
2010 |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Right direction |
68.5 |
71 |
64 |
65 |
64 |
57 |
61 |
55.5 |
59.5 |
63.5 |
60.5 |
65 |
58 |
|
Wrong direction |
21 |
20 |
25 |
24.5 |
27 |
31.5 |
29 |
30 |
28.5 |
26 |
24 |
21 |
27.5 |
|
Roy Morgan GCR# |
147.5 |
151 |
139 |
140.5 |
137 |
125.5 |
132 |
125.5 |
131 |
137.5 |
136.5 |
144 |
130.5 |
|
Can’t say |
10.5 |
9 |
11 |
10.5 |
9 |
11.5 |
10 |
14.5 |
12 |
10.5 |
15.5 |
14 |
14.5 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
# Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).
|
|
New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (Government of John Key): Interviewing Dates |
|
|
July 19-Aug 1,
2010 |
Aug 2-15,
2010 |
Aug 16-29,
2010 |
Aug 30-Sep 12,
2010 |
Sep 20-Oct 3,
2010 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Right direction |
57.5 |
58.5 |
55 |
58 |
61.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Wrong direction |
28 |
27.5 |
28 |
28 |
22 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Roy Morgan GCR# |
129.5 |
131 |
127 |
130 |
139.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Can’t say |
14.5 |
14 |
17 |
14 |
16.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).
For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094
Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.
|
Sample Size |
Percentage Estimate |
| |
40%-60% |
25% or 75% |
10% or 90% |
5% or 95% |
|
500 |
±4.5 |
±3.9 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
|
1,000 |
±3.2 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
±1.4 |
Finding No. 4586 is taken from Computer Report No. 2317
The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.
|
