ALP (52%, up 2%) now ahead of L-NP (48% down 2%)
| Finding No. 4624 -
This Face-to-Face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends, January 15/16 & 22/23, 2011, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,824 electors.:
January 28, 2011 |
The latest Face-to-Face Morgan Poll conducted over the last two weekends, January 15/16 & 22/23, 2011, shows the ALP (52%, up 2% from the Face-to-Face Morgan Poll of January 8/9, 2011) now clearly ahead of the L-NP (48%, down 2%) on a Two-Party preferred basis.
The ALP primary vote is 40.5% (up 2% from January 8/9, 2011), behind the L-NP 41.5% (down 2.5%). Support for the minor parties shows the Greens 11.5% (down 1.5%) and Others/ Independents 6.5% (up 2%).
If a Federal election were held now the ALP would be returned to Government.
More Australians (57%, up 4%) are confident that Australia is ‘heading in the right direction,’ compared to 26.5% (down 3%) that say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction. Therefore the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is up 7 points to 130.5.
The latest weekly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for the weekend of January 22/23, 2011, was 121.2 (down 1.9pts and down 3.1pts over the period of interviewing for this Morgan Poll).
Gary Morgan says:
“Today’s Morgan Poll shows the ALP (52%, up 2% since January 8/9, 2011) now clearly ahead of the L-NP (48%, down 2%) on a Two-Party preferred basis as Australians return to work after their Summer holidays.
“The floods in Queensland, Victoria and other parts of Australia have dominated the news during the early part of 2011 with a resultant drop in Consumer Confidence (121.2, down 3.1pts over the last two weeks). However, the Government’s early response to these issues appears to have solidified their support.
“However, the costs to the Government of rebuilding the infrastructure damaged by the floods is estimated to run into the billions of dollars and finding this money is likely to prove a challenging issue for the Gillard Government which is aiming to return the Budget to surplus in the 2012/13 financial year.”
Electors were asked: “If a Federal Election for the House of Representatives were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?”
This Face-to-Face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends, January 15/16 & 22/23, 2011, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,824 electors.
*Telephone Morgan Polls are conducted using the same methodologies used by other major telephone polls — Nielsen, Newspoll, Galaxy. In analysing telephone Morgan Poll results, it is worth noting that telephone polls are good at capturing the response to current events and have typically been biased towards the L-NP and more ‘responsive’ to current events.
For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094
Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093
Margin of Error
The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
|
Sample Size |
Percentage Estimate |
| |
40%-60% |
25% or 75% |
10% or 90% |
5% or 95% |
|
500 |
±4.3 |
±3.8 |
±2.6 |
±1.9 |
|
1,000 |
±3.0 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
±1.4 |
|
1,500 |
±2.5 |
±2.2 |
±1.5 |
±1.1 |
|
2,000 |
±2.1 |
±1.9 |
±1.3 |
±1.0 |
During the period:
- Prime Minister Gillard flags levy to pay for flood recovery
Prime Minister Gillard has for the first time raised the prospect of imposing a special one-off flood levy on taxpayers to help fund the rebuilding of Queensland and keep Labor's pledge to produce a budget surplus in the 2012/13 financial year.
- Emotional Anna Bligh's rallying call to Queenslanders
Premier Anna Bligh broke down as she thanked Queenslanders for their courage during the state's unprecedented floods over the past few weeks.
- Premier Anna Bligh open to insurance rethink
Queensland Premier Anna Bligh says the scale of the flood devastation has highlighted major shortcomings in the current disaster insurance system — including the sometimes unclear definition of what actually constitutes a ‘flood.’
- Volunteer army assembles to help flood victims
Flood-ravaged Queenslanders can take comfort in the thousands of volunteers willing to roll up their sleeves and help in what will be a marathon clean-up.
- Flooded Victorian towns face days of isolation
Victorian authorities are warning more towns in flooded areas will face up to a week of isolation as the number of affected communities across Victoria’s north and north-west continues to grow. An “Inland Sea’ has devastated towns including Rochester, Charlton, Echuca, Horsham, Dimboola and Swan Hill.
- Floods cripple rail network in Tasmania
Severe weather and flooding across Tasmania have caused extensive damage to parts of the railway network in the island State.
- Australian food prices set to sky rocket
Australians can expect fruit and vegetable shortages and higher prices after the nation's salad bowl was destroyed by floodwaters in Queensland and Victoria early in January 2011.
- Santos unveils plan for $16b LNG plant
Resources company Santos has confirmed a decision to invest $16 billion in a Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) plant in Gladstone in central Queensland.
- Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair fronts the latest Iraq war inquiry
Former United Kingdom Prime Minister Tony Blair has again fronted the Iraq war inquiry, expressing his deep regret about the loss of life in Iraq since the allied invasion in 2003.
- President Barack Obama upbeat on sharp drop in unemployment
US unemployment fell sharply from 9.8 per cent to 9.4 per cent in December, to now be at its lowest level since May 2009 — nearly 2 years ago.
FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)
| |
|
|
The |
Family |
Ind./ |
| |
ALP |
L-NP |
Greens |
First#* |
Others |
|
RECENT ELECTION RESULTS |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Election March 2, 1996 |
38.8 |
47.3 (8.6) |
1.7 |
- |
12.2 |
|
Election October 3^, 1998 |
40.1 |
39.5 (5.3) |
2.1 |
- |
18.3 |
|
Election November 10, 2001 |
37.8 |
43 (5.6) |
4.4 |
- |
13.8 |
|
Election October 9, 2004 |
37.6 |
46.4 (5.9) |
7.2 |
2.0 |
6.8 |
|
Election November 24, 2007 |
43.4 |
42.1 (5.9) |
7.8 |
2.0 |
4.7 |
| Election, August 21, 2010 |
38.0 |
43.6 (3.7) |
11.8 |
2.3 |
4.3 |
|
MORGAN POLL |
|
|
|
|
|
|
August 22/23, 2010 (SMS) |
40.5 |
44.5 |
10 |
** |
5 |
|
August 25/26, 2010 (Phone) |
36 |
40 (3) |
13 |
2 |
9 |
|
August 28/29 & September 4/5, 2010 (Face) |
40.5 |
39.5 (4) |
15 |
2 |
3 |
|
September 15/16, 2010 (Phone) |
35.5 |
42.5 (3) |
15 |
2.5 |
4.5 |
|
September 18/19, 2010 (Face) |
40.5 |
41 (4.5) |
13 |
2 |
3.5 |
|
October 2/3, 2010 (Face) |
44 |
38.5 (3) |
12 |
2 |
3.5 |
|
October 9/10 & 16/17, 2010 (Face) |
43 |
40.5 (3) |
10.5 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
|
October 23/24 & 30/31, 2010 (Face) |
43 |
40.5 (4) |
10.5 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
|
November 6/7 & 13/14, 2010 (Face) |
41 |
40 (4) |
12 |
2.5 |
4.5 |
|
November 20/21 & 27/28, 2010 (Face) |
40.5 |
42 (3.5) |
12 |
1.5 |
4 |
|
December 4/5, 2010 (Face) |
40.5 |
40.5 (4.5) |
13.5 |
1.5 |
4 |
|
December 8-12, 2010 (Phone) |
31 |
46 (2) |
13.5 |
2 |
7.5 |
|
December 11/12, 2010 (Face) |
38 |
43 (5) |
13.5 |
1.5 |
4 |
|
January 8/9, 2011 (Face) |
38.5 |
44 (5.5) |
13 |
1.5 |
3 |
|
January 15/16 & 22/23, 2011 (Face) |
40.5 |
41.5 (4) |
11.5 |
2 |
4.5 |
Note: National Party results are in brackets. # Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.
^ 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.
* The Family First Party were included as an option on Federal Voting Intention from October 30, 2004.
**Family First were not reported in the SMS Morgan Poll of August 22/23, 2010.
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)
| |
ALP |
L-NP |
|
|
| |
% |
% |
|
|
|
Election, March 2, 1996 |
46.4 |
53.6 |
|
|
|
Election, October 3^, 1998 |
51 |
49 |
|
|
|
Election, November 10, 2001 |
49 |
51 |
|
|
|
Election, October 9, 2004 |
47.3 |
52.7 |
|
|
|
Election, November 24, 2007 |
52.7 |
47.3 |
|
|
|
Election, August 21, 2010 |
50.1 |
49.9 |
|
|
|
|
Preferences distributed
by how electors
say they will vote |
Preferences distributed
by how electors voted
at the 2010 election |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
| MORGAN POLL |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
|
August 22/23, 2010 (SMS) |
50.5 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
|
August 25/26, 2010 (Phone) |
51.5 |
48.5 |
51 |
49 |
|
August 28/29 & September 4/5, 2010 (Face) |
54.5 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
45.5 |
|
September 15/16, 2010 (Phone) |
52 |
48 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
|
September 18/19, 2010 (Face) |
54 |
46 |
53.5 |
46.5 |
|
October 2/3, 2010 (Face) |
56.5 |
43.5 |
55.5 |
44.5 |
|
October 9/10 & 16/17, 2010 (Face) |
55 |
45 |
54 |
46 |
|
October 23/24, 30/31, 2010 (Face) |
54 |
46 |
54 |
46 |
|
November 6/7 & 13/14, 2010 (Face) |
54.5 |
45.5 |
54 |
46 |
|
November 20/21 & 27/28, 2010 (Face) |
52.5 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
|
December 4/5, 2010 (Face) |
52.5 |
47.5 |
53 |
47 |
|
December 8-12, 2010 (Phone) |
46 |
54 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
|
December 11/12, 2010 (Face) |
48.5 |
51.5 |
50 |
50 |
|
January 8/9, 2011 (Face) |
50 |
50 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
|
January 15/16 & 22/23, 2011 (Face) |
52 |
48 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
^ 1998 Federal Election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.
THINK WILL WIN
Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal Election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"
|
Think Will Win |
ALP |
L-NP |
Can't Say |
| |
% |
% |
% |
|
August 25/26, 2010 (Phone) |
33.5 |
42 |
24.5 |
|
August 28/29 & September 4/5, 2010 (Face) |
43 |
37.5 |
19.5 |
|
September 15/16, 2010 (Phone) |
34 |
42.5 |
23.5 |
|
September 18/19, 2010 (Face) |
38.5 |
43.5 |
18 |
|
October 2/3, 2010 (Face) |
41 |
40 |
19 |
|
October 9/10 & 16/17, 2010 (Face) |
43 |
41.5 |
15.5 |
|
October 23/24 & 30/31, 2010 (Face) |
41.5 |
42 |
16.5 |
|
November 6/7 & 13/14, 2010 (Face) |
42 |
41.5 |
16.5 |
|
November 20/21 & 27/28, 2010 (Face) |
39 |
45 |
16 |
|
December 4/5, 2010 (Face) |
30.5 |
52.5 |
17 |
|
December 8-12, 2010 (Phone) |
31.5 |
56.5 |
12 |
|
December 11/12, 2010 (Face) |
32.5 |
53 |
14.5 |
|
January 8/9, 2011 (Face) |
35.5 |
56 |
8.5 |
|
January 15/16 & 22/23, 2011 (Face) |
38.5 |
49 |
12.5 |
AUSTRALIA HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION
Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”
| |
Interviewing Dates — ALP Government (Julia Gillard v Tony Abbott) |
| |
June
25-28 |
June 26/27
& July 3/4 |
July
10/11 |
July
17/18 |
July
20/21 |
July
24/25 |
July
27/28 |
July 31/
Aug 1 |
Aug
3 |
Aug
7/8 |
Aug
14 |
Aug
14/15 |
Aug
18/19 |
Aug
25/26 |
Aug 28/29
& Sep 4/5 |
| |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Phone |
Phone |
Face |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Right direction |
54.5 |
55.5 |
54.5 |
52 |
54.5 |
51 |
51.5 |
52 |
50 |
54 |
51 |
53 |
42.5 |
45 |
51 |
|
Wrong direction |
29.5 |
24.5 |
23.5 |
28.5 |
32.5 |
27 |
31 |
28 |
34.5 |
27.5 |
35 |
28 |
38.5 |
33 |
25 |
|
Roy Morgan GCR* |
125 |
131 |
131 |
123.5 |
122 |
124 |
120.5 |
124 |
115.5 |
126.5 |
116 |
125 |
104 |
112 |
126 |
|
Can’t say |
16 |
20 |
22 |
19.5 |
13 |
22 |
17.5 |
20 |
15.5 |
18.5 |
14 |
19 |
19 |
22 |
24 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
| |
Interviewing Dates — ALP Government (Julia Gillard v Tony Abbott) |
| |
Sep
15/16 |
Sep
18/19 |
Oct
2/3 |
Oct 9/10
& 16/17 |
Oct 23/24
& 30/31 |
Nov 6/7
& 13/14 |
Nov 20/21
& 27/28 |
Dec
4/5 |
Dec
8-12 |
Dec
11/12 |
Jan
8/9 |
Jan 15/16
& 22/23 |
|
|
|
| |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Face |
|
|
|
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
|
|
Right direction |
50 |
53.5 |
53.5 |
54 |
54 |
52 |
52.5 |
52 |
52.5 |
49 |
53 |
57 |
|
|
|
|
Wrong direction |
31 |
25.5 |
28 |
26.5 |
26 |
29 |
27.5 |
30.5 |
33.5 |
30.5 |
29.5 |
26.5 |
|
|
|
|
Roy Morgan GCR* |
119 |
128 |
125.5 |
127.5 |
128 |
123 |
125 |
121.5 |
119 |
118.5 |
123.5 |
130.5 |
|
|
|
|
Can’t say |
19 |
21 |
18.5 |
19.5 |
20 |
19 |
20 |
17.5 |
14 |
20.5 |
17.5 |
16.5 |
|
|
|
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
|
|
|
Phone: Telephone survey method; Face: Face-to-face survey method.
* Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (100 plus the difference between the percentage of people who say the country is “going in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “going in seriously the wrong direction”).
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
|
Sample Size |
Percentage Estimate |
| |
40%-60% |
25% or 75% |
10% or 90% |
5% or 95% |
|
500 |
±4.5 |
±3.9 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
| 1,000 |
±3.2 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
±1.4 |
|
1,500 |
±2.6 |
±2.2 |
±1.5 |
±1.1 |
|
2,000 |
±2.2 |
±1.9 |
±1.3 |
±1 |
The Morgan Poll was the most accurate of all polling companies at the 2007 Federal Election for both primary vote and two-party preferred predictions (sample 2,115 electors).
The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland Election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).
The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian Election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors). The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.
Note: The recent discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading.
The following included comment says it all: “I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%). Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll. On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s.”
View Federal Voting Intention Trend
The Roy Morgan Research Centre conducts the Morgan Poll in Australia and New Zealand and is the Gallup International Association Member
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.
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