New Zealand Government Confidence Rating rises sharply, up 19 points to 133.5
As Christchurch looks to rebuild after Earthquake
| Finding No. 4645 -
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a NZ wide cross-section of 901 electors from February 28 – March 13, 2011. Of all electors surveyed 7% (up 1.5%) didn’t name a party.:
March 17, 2011 |
The latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has jumped 19 points to 133.5 with 59.5% (up 10%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 26% (down 9%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction.’
At the same time support for John Key’s National-led Government is up 1% to 54.5%. Support for Prime Minister Key’s National Party is 52.5% (up 3.5%), the Maori Party 1.5% (down 1.5%), and ACT NZ 0.5% (down 1%).
Support for Opposition Parties is down 1% to 45.5% — Labour Party 32.5% (down 2.5%), Greens 8%, (unchanged), New Zealand First 4% (up 1%), Progressive Party 0.5% (up 0.5%) and others 0.5% (unchanged).
If a National Election were held today the National Party would easily be returned to Government.
Gary Morgan says:
“After a sharp fall in the immediate aftermath of the Christchurch earthquake the New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has rebounded strongly as attention turns to rebuilding Christchurch in the months ahead (133.5, up 19pts). Now 59.5% (up 10%) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction.’
“The National-led Government of Prime Minister John Key has also strengthened its lead (54.5%, up 1%) over the Opposition Parties (45.5%, down 1%) and the National Party (52.5%, up 3.5%) once again has a support of a clear majority of the electorate.”
Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a NZ wide cross-section of 901 electors from February 28 — March 13, 2011. Of all electors surveyed 7% (up 1.5%) didn’t name a party.
VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY
The following table compares the latest NZ Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the November 8, 2008 General Election:
|
PRIMARY VOTE |
National |
Labour |
Green
Party |
ACT
NZ |
Maori
Party* |
United
Future |
Progressive Party |
NZ
First |
Other |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
General Election, July 27, 2002 |
20.9 |
41.3 |
7 |
7.1 |
n/a |
6.7 |
1.7 |
10.4 |
4.9 |
|
General Election, September 17, 2005 |
39.1 |
41.1 |
5.3 |
1.51 |
2.12 |
2.67 |
1.16 |
5.72 |
1.32 |
|
General Election, November 8, 2008 |
44.93 |
33.99 |
6.72 |
3.65 |
2.39 |
0.87 |
0.91 |
4.07 |
2.47 |
|
MORGAN POLL |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
November 17-30, 2008 |
44 |
32.5 |
9.5 |
4 |
3.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
1.5 |
|
December 1-14, 2008 |
47 |
31.5 |
9.5 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
0.5 |
3 |
1.5 |
|
January 2-18, 2009 |
48 |
33 |
8 |
3 |
3.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
|
January 19 - February 1, 2009 |
48 |
31 |
9 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
3 |
0.5 |
|
February 2-15, 2009 |
48.5 |
32 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
1.5 |
2 |
|
February 16 - March 1, 2009 |
56 |
26 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
^ |
2.5 |
1.5 |
|
March 2-15, 2009 |
54.5 |
29 |
8 |
2.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
2 |
1 |
|
March 23 - April 5, 2009 |
50.5 |
28 |
9.5 |
4 |
3.5 |
1 |
^ |
2.5 |
1 |
|
April 6-19, 2009 |
50 |
32.5 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
^ |
2 |
0.5 |
|
April 20 - May 3, 2009 |
55 |
30.5 |
7 |
2 |
2 |
^ |
0.5 |
2 |
1 |
|
May 4-17, 2009 |
52 |
31.5 |
9.5 |
2 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
May 18-31, 2009 |
52 |
31 |
8.5 |
2 |
3 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
June 1-14, 2009 |
52 |
33 |
7.5 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
June 22 - July 5, 2009 |
54 |
31.5 |
8 |
1 |
3 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
July 6-19, 2009 |
52 |
30 |
10 |
1 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
^ |
2 |
1 |
|
July 20 - August 2, 2009 |
53.5 |
34 |
7 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
^ |
1 |
^ |
|
August 3-16, 2009 |
53.5 |
32.5 |
8.5 |
1 |
2 |
0.5 |
^ |
2 |
^ |
|
August 17-30, 2009 |
56.5 |
29.5 |
8 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
August 31 - September 13, 2009 |
51.5 |
33.5 |
7.5 |
2 |
2.5 |
^ |
0.5 |
2.5 |
^ |
|
September 21 - October 4, 2009 |
57.5 |
28 |
6.5 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
^ |
2 |
1 |
|
October 5-18, 2009 |
53 |
30 |
7.5 |
2.5 |
3 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
|
October 19 - November 1, 2009 |
55.5 |
29 |
7.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
November 2-15, 2009 |
51.5 |
33 |
6.5 |
2.5 |
2 |
1 |
^ |
2.5 |
1 |
|
November 16-29, 2009 |
53.5 |
30.5 |
7 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
^ |
^ |
2.5 |
1.5 |
|
November 30 - December 13, 2009 |
54 |
27.5 |
9.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
^ |
4 |
1.5 |
|
January 4-17, 2010 |
53 |
30 |
8 |
2 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
|
January 18-31, 2010 |
52 |
32 |
6 |
2 |
3 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
|
February 1-14, 2010 |
52 |
33 |
8 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
^ |
2 |
0.5 |
|
February 15-28, 2010 |
53.5 |
31.5 |
8 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
^ |
0.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
|
March 1-14, 2010 |
51.5 |
33.5 |
6.5 |
2.5 |
2 |
1 |
0.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
|
March 22 - April 4, 2010 |
49 |
33 |
7.5 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
0.5 |
3 |
1 |
|
April 5-18, 2010 |
49.5 |
34 |
7.5 |
1 |
4 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
|
April 19 - May 2, 2010 |
49 |
33.5 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
3 |
1 |
|
May 3-16, 2010 |
48.5 |
33.5 |
9 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
3 |
^ |
|
May 17-30, 2010 |
52.5 |
30 |
9.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
^ |
|
May 31 - June 13, 2010 |
50.5 |
33 |
9.5 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
^ |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
June 21 - July 4, 2010 |
53 |
29 |
8.5 |
2 |
3 |
0.5 |
^ |
3 |
1 |
|
July 5-18, 2010 |
49 |
31.5 |
9 |
2 |
3 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
^ |
|
July 19 - August 1, 2010 |
51 |
33.5 |
6.5 |
2 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
|
August 2-15, 2010 |
50 |
33.5 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
3 |
0.5 |
^ |
3.5 |
0.5 |
|
August 16-29, 2010 |
49.5 |
32.5 |
8.5 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
^ |
3.5 |
1 |
|
August 30 - September 12, 2010 |
48.5 |
34 |
8 |
2 |
1.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
^ |
|
September 20 - October 3, 2010 |
49.5 |
36.5 |
8 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
^ |
^ |
2.5 |
0.5 |
|
October 4-17, 2010 |
52.5 |
33 |
8.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
^ |
2.5 |
1 |
|
October 18-31, 2010 |
50.5 |
33 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
3 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
^ |
|
November 1-14, 2010 |
50 |
32.5 |
9 |
1 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
^ |
3 |
1.5 |
|
November 15-28, 2010 |
51 |
33 |
7 |
1 |
3 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
3 |
1 |
|
November 29 - December 12, 2010 |
48.5 |
35 |
7 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
3 |
1 |
|
January 4-16, 2011 |
55 |
29 |
7 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
^ |
4.5 |
^ |
|
January 17-30, 2011 |
49 |
34.5 |
6.5 |
1 |
3 |
^ |
^ |
5.5 |
0.5 |
|
January 31 - February 13, 2011 |
52.5 |
33 |
8.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
^ |
2.5 |
1 |
|
February 14-27, 2011 |
49 |
35 |
8 |
1.5 |
3 |
^ |
^ |
3 |
0.5 |
|
February 28 - March 13, 2011 |
52.5 |
32.5 |
8 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
^ |
0.5 |
4 |
0.5 |
*The Maori Party was launched in July 2004; ^ Result less than 0.5%.
VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - National Party-led Government v All Opposition Parties
The following table compares the latest NZ Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the November 8, 2008 General Election:
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE |
National Party-led
Government* |
Opposition
Parties# |
| |
% |
% |
|
General Election, November 8, 2008 |
51.84 |
48.16 |
|
MORGAN POLL |
|
|
|
November 17-30, 2008 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
|
December 1-14, 2008 |
54 |
46 |
|
January 2-18, 2009 |
55.5 |
44.5 |
|
January 19 - February 1, 2009 |
56 |
44 |
|
February 2-15, 2009 |
55 |
45 |
|
February 16 - March 1, 2009 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
|
March 2-15, 2009 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
|
March 23 - April 5, 2009 |
59 |
41 |
|
April 6-19, 2009 |
56.5 |
43.5 |
|
April 20 - May 3, 2009 |
59 |
41 |
|
May 4-17, 2009 |
57 |
43 |
|
May 18-31, 2009 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
June 1-14, 2009 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
June 22 - July 5, 2009 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
|
July 6-19, 2009 |
57 |
43 |
|
July 20 - August 2, 2009 |
58 |
42 |
|
August 3-16, 2009 |
57 |
43 |
|
August 17-30, 2009 |
60 |
40 |
|
August 31 - September 13, 2009 |
56 |
44 |
|
September 21 - October 4, 2009 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
|
October 5-18, 2009 |
59 |
41 |
|
October 19 - November 1, 2009 |
60.5 |
39.5 |
|
November 2-15, 2009 |
57 |
43 |
|
November 16-29, 2009 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
|
November 30 - December 13, 2009 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
January 4-17, 2010 |
58 |
42 |
|
January 18-31, 2010 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
February 1-14, 2010 |
56.5 |
43.5 |
|
February 15-28, 2010 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
March 1-14, 2010 |
57 |
43 |
|
March 22 - April 4, 2010 |
55 |
45 |
|
April 5-18, 2010 |
55 |
45 |
|
April 19 - May 2, 2010 |
53.5 |
46.5 |
|
May 3-16, 2010 |
54 |
46 |
|
May 17-30, 2010 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
May 31 - June 13, 2010 |
55.5 |
44.5 |
|
June 21 - July 4, 2010 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
|
July 5-18, 2010 |
54.5 |
45.5 |
|
July 19 - August 1, 2010 |
57 |
43 |
|
August 2-15, 2010 |
55 |
45 |
|
August 16-29, 2010 |
54.5 |
45.5 |
|
August 30 - September 12, 2010 |
53 |
47 |
|
September 20 - October 3, 2010 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
|
October 4-17, 2010 |
55 |
45 |
|
October 18-31, 2010 |
55.5 |
44.5 |
|
November 1-14, 2010 |
54 |
46 |
|
November 15-28, 2010 |
55.5 |
44.5 |
|
November 29 - December 12, 2010 |
53.5 |
46.5 |
|
January 4-16, 2011 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
|
January 17-30, 2011 |
53 |
47 |
|
January 31 - February 13, 2011 |
55 |
45 |
|
February 14-27, 2011 |
53.5 |
46.5 |
|
February 28 - March 13, 2011 |
54.5 |
45.5 | *National-led Government: National Party, Maori Party, ACT NZ, United Future; #Opposition Parties: Labour Party, Green Party, Progressive Party, NZ First, Other.
NEW ZEALAND: HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION?
Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in New Zealand are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”
|
|
New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (Government of John Key): Interviewing Dates |
|
|
Jan 4-17,
2010 |
Jan 18-31,
2010 |
Feb 1-14,
2010 |
Feb 15-28,
2010 |
Mar 1-14,
2010 |
Mar 22-Apr 4,
2010 |
Apr 5-18,
2010 |
Apr 19-May 2,
2010 |
May 3-16,
2010 |
May 17-30,
2010 |
May 31-June 13,
2010 |
June 21-July 4,
2010 |
July 5-18,
2010 |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Right direction |
68.5 |
71 |
64 |
65 |
64 |
57 |
61 |
55.5 |
59.5 |
63.5 |
60.5 |
65 |
58 |
|
Wrong direction |
21 |
20 |
25 |
24.5 |
27 |
31.5 |
29 |
30 |
28.5 |
26 |
24 |
21 |
27.5 |
|
Roy Morgan GCR# |
147.5 |
151 |
139 |
140.5 |
137 |
125.5 |
132 |
125.5 |
131 |
137.5 |
136.5 |
144 |
130.5 |
|
Can’t say |
10.5 |
9 |
11 |
10.5 |
9 |
11.5 |
10 |
14.5 |
12 |
10.5 |
15.5 |
14 |
14.5 |
|
TOTAL |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
# Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).
|
|
New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (Government of John Key): Interviewing Dates |
|
|
July 19-Aug 1,
2010 |
Aug 2-15,
2010 |
Aug 16-29,
2010 |
Aug 30-Sep 12,
2010 |
Sep 20-Oct 3,
2010 |
Oct 4-17,
2010 |
Oct 18-31,
2010 |
Nov 1-14,
2010 |
Nov 15-28,
2010 |
Nov 29-Dec 12,
2010 |
Jan 4-16,
2011 |
Jan 17-30,
2011 |
Jan 31-Feb 13,
2011 |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Right direction |
57.5 |
58.5 |
55 |
58 |
61.5 |
60.5 |
55 |
63.5 |
59 |
58.5 |
59.5 |
57 |
60 |
|
Wrong direction |
28 |
27.5 |
28 |
28 |
22 |
24 |
30 |
24 |
27 |
27 |
27 |
27.5 |
24.5 |
|
Roy Morgan GCR# |
129.5 |
131 |
127 |
130 |
139.5 |
136.5 |
125 |
139.5 |
132 |
131.5 |
132.5 |
129.5 |
135.5 |
|
Can’t say |
14.5 |
14 |
17 |
14 |
16.5 |
15.5 |
15 |
12.5 |
14 |
14.5 |
13.5 |
15.5 |
15.5 |
|
TOTAL |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
# Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).
|
|
New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (Government of John Key): Interviewing Dates |
|
|
Feb 14-27,
2011 |
Feb 28-Mar 13,
2011 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Right direction |
49.5 |
59.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Wrong direction |
35 |
26 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Roy Morgan GCR# |
114.5 |
133.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Can’t say |
15.5 |
14.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
TOTAL |
100 |
100 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).
For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094
Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.
|
Sample Size |
Percentage Estimate |
| |
40%-60% |
25% or 75% |
10% or 90% |
5% or 95% |
|
500 |
±4.5 |
±3.9 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
|
1,000 |
±3.2 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
±1.4 |
Finding No. 4645 is taken from Computer Report No. 2327
The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.
Finding No. 4645 is taken from Computer Report No. 2327
|
