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The latest Face-to-Face Morgan Poll conducted over the last two weekends, March 19/20 & 26/27, 2011, shows the L-NP (51%, down 0.5% from the last face-to-face Morgan Poll conducted on March 12/13, 2011) now has a small lead over the ALP (49%, up 0.5%) on a Two-Party preferred basis. The L-NP primary vote is 43.5% (down 1%), ahead of the ALP 37.5% (down 0.5%). Support for the minor parties shows the Greens 12% (up 0.5%) and Others/ Independents 7% (up 1%).

However, if taken week by week, the ALP (52%) cf. L-NP (48%) was ahead on the weekend of March 19/20, 2011 as focus shifted to the conflict in Libya and problems at the Japanese nuclear power plant, but the L-NP gained a strong advantage last weekend, March 26/27: L-NP (53.5%) cf. ALP (46.5%).

Last week’s swing to the L-NP is supported by the telephone Morgan Poll conducted March 22-24, 2011 which showed the L-NP (54.5%) clearly ahead of the ALP (45.5%).

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is at 113.5 with 49% of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction,’ while 35.5% say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction. The latest weekly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for the weekend of March 26/27, 2011, was 117.6 up 1.4pts from March 19/20, 2011, but down 1.2pts over the period of this poll.

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s Morgan Poll shows the L-NP (51%) cf. ALP (49%) maintaining its recent lead over the Government and confirms the swing to the L-NP first spotted in last week’s telephone Morgan Poll which showed the L-NP: 54.5% cf. ALP: 45.5%.

“The shift of media focus away from the international events taking place in Libya and the worries about the Japanese nuclear power plant and back to local issues including the ‘carbon tax’ and the NSW Election — at which the Labor Government of Kristina Keneally suffered a record 17% swing against — appears to have helped the L-NP to retain and strengthen its lead over the Government.”

Electors were asked: “If a Federal Election for the House of Representatives were held— which party would receive your first preference?”

This face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends, March 19/20 & 26/27, 2011, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,819 electors.

*Telephone Morgan Polls are conducted using the same methodologies used by other major telephone polls — Nielsen, Newspoll, Galaxy. In analysing telephone Morgan Poll results, it is worth noting that telephone polls are good at capturing the response to current events and have typically been biased towards the L-NP, obtain a higher figure for Minor parties and Independents and  more ‘responsive’ to current events.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:            Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:        Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

Margin of Error

The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

During the period: 

• Professor Ross Garnaut backs $20-$30 carbon price
Federal Government climate change adviser Ross Garnaut says the carbon tax should be set at between $20 and $30 a tonne when it is introduced next year.


• Prime Minister Julia Gillard signals carbon tax rebate
Prime Minister Julia Gillard has singled out tax cuts for low and middle income earners as a possibility under her carbon price plan.


• Opposition Leader Tony Abbott addresses anti-carbon tax rally in Canberra
A noisy protest at Parliament House gave Opposition Leader Tony Abbott a rousing welcome today as he accused Prime Minister Julia Gillard of lying about a carbon tax.


• Prince William arrives in Northern Victoria
Prince William is touring flood-damaged parts of Northern Victoria after a busy weekend touring disaster-affected areas of Queensland and visiting the earthquake ravaged city of Christchurch.


• Libyan Leader Colonel Gaddafi's forces open battle for Eastern town of Ajdabiya
Forces loyal to Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi have been attacking the town of Ajdabiya, the last major population centre before the rebel stronghold of Benghazi which is located in the Libyan East.


• Libyan rebels spurred on by Coalition airstrikes
Libyan rebels are attempting to win back the strategic town of Ajdabiya, spurred on by western warplanes bombing Muammar Gaddafi's forces holding the eastern centre.


• US, France launch first strike on Libyan forces
The battle for the Libyan rebel city of Benghazi has stepped up a notch, with French warplanes destroying tanks and armoured vehicles and the US military launching an attack on Libya's air defences. The establishment of the No Fly Zone was completed within days as Allied forces pounded the forces of Colonel Gaddafi.


• Japan takes stock as death toll rises from devastating earthquake and tsunami
Hundreds of stunned and grieving communities in Japan are beginning to take stock of the damage caused by Friday's devastating earthquake and tsunami. As the week as passed, the death toll and numbers of missing has now soared past 20,000.


• Disunity let us down: Former NSW Premier Kristina Keneally
Outgoing New South Wales Premier Kristina Keneally has accepted responsibility for her party's record loss and says she will not be staying on as Labor leader.


• Sydney's West becomes a Labor wasteland
Labor has suffered a humiliating swing to the Liberal Party in another of its traditional heartlands in western Sydney.


• Prime Minister Julia Gillard rules out nuclear power in Australia
Julia Gillard has ruled out the possibility of nuclear energy in Australia and been questioned by WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange on the ABC's Q&A program.


• Second night of rioting at Christmas Island centre
For the second night running rioting asylum seekers have damaged the Christmas Island detention facility. Part of the asylum seeker facility has been burnt to the ground in the disturbance.


• Elizabeth Taylor dies aged 79
Hollywood legend and screen icon Elizabeth Taylor has died aged 79 after suffering from heart problems and other health issues in recent years.


• Aussies out of World Cup after defeat by hosts India
Yuvraj Singh was India's hero yet again as the hosts ended Australia's 12-year reign as World Cup champions with a five-wicket quarter-final victory.

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

Note: National Party results are in brackets. # Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.

^ 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.

* The Family First Party were included as an option on Federal Voting Intention from October 30, 2004.

**Family First were not reported in the SMS Morgan Poll of August 22/23, 2010.

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)

^ 1998 Federal Election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.

THINK WILL WIN

Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal Election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"

AUSTRALIA HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION

Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

Phone: Telephone survey method; Face: Face-to-face survey method.

* Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (100 plus the difference between the percentage of people who say the country is “going in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “going in seriously the wrong direction”).

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

The Morgan Poll was the most accurate of all polling companies at the 2007 Federal Election for both primary vote and two-party preferred predictions (sample 2,115 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland Election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian Election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors). The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.

Note: The recent discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading.

The following included comment says it all: “I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%).  Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll.  On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s.”

View Federal Voting Intention Trend

The Roy Morgan Research Centre conducts the Morgan Poll in Australia and New Zealand and is the Gallup International Association Member

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

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