PRE-BUDGET: L-NP (54.5%) STILL WITH WINNING LEAD - ALP (45.5%)
| Finding No. 4667 -
The face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last weekend, May 7/8, 2011, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 791 electors. Of all electors surveyed, 6% did not name a party.:
May 13, 2011 |
The latest face-to-face Morgan Poll conducted over last weekend, May 7-8, 2011, shows the L-NP 54.5%, (up 0.5%) still with it 's big winning lead over the ALP 45.5%, (down 0.5%) on a Two-Party preferred basis.
The Morgan Poll shows the L-NP primary vote is 48% (up 2%), well ahead of the ALP 34%, (unchanged). Support for the minor parties shows the Greens 11%, (unchanged) and Others/ Independents 7%, (down 2%).
If a Federal election were held today the L-NP would easily win according to this Morgan Poll.
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is at 115, with 46.5% of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction,’ while 31.5% say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction.
The latest weekly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for the weekend of May 7/8, 2011, was 119.7, up 2.5pts from April 30/ May 1, 2011.
Gary Morgan says:
“Today’s face-to-face Morgan Poll conducted last weekend shows the L-NP (54.5%, up 0.5%) slightly increasing its lead over the ALP (45.5%, down 0.5%) before Wayne Swan delivered the Federal Budget on Tuesday. The results are virtually unchanged from last week’s telephone Morgan Poll conducted on May 3-5, 2011 which showed the L-NP (54%) well ahead of the ALP (46%).
“The main talking point from the Federal Budget is the Government’s attempt to cut back on ‘middle-class welfare’ by stopping payments made to couples earning over $150,000 per year — which the Government should be applauded for.
“Next week’s face-to-face Morgan Poll will measure exactly what impact the Federal Budget had on Australians’ voting intentions and next week’s Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence will show the Budget’s impact on how Australians feel about their financial situations. Consumer Confidence this week rose 2.5pts to 119.7 after the RBA left interest rates unchanged at 4.75%.”
Electors were asked: “If a Federal Election for the House of Representatives were held — which party would receive your first preference?”
The face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last weekend, May 7/8, 2011, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 791 electors. Of all electors surveyed, 6% did not name a party.
*Telephone Morgan Polls are conducted using the same methodologies used by other major telephone polls — Nielsen, Newspoll, Galaxy. In analysing telephone Morgan Poll results, it is worth noting that telephone polls are good at capturing the response to current events and have typically been biased towards the L-NP, obtain a higher figure for Minor parties and Independents and more ‘responsive’ to current events.
For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094
Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093
Margin of Error
The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
|
Sample Size |
Percentage Estimate |
| |
40%-60% |
25% or 75% |
10% or 90% |
5% or 95% |
|
500 |
±4.3 |
±3.8 |
±2.6 |
±1.9 |
|
1,000 |
±3.0 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
±1.4 |
|
1,500 |
±2.5 |
±2.2 |
±1.5 |
±1.1 |
|
2,000 |
±2.1 |
±1.9 |
±1.3 |
±1.0 |
During the period:
- Prime Minister Julia Gillard reaches asylum agreement with Malaysia
Prime Minister Julia Gillard has announced that Australia has reached an agreement with Malaysia as part of efforts to combat people smuggling.
- Papua New Guinea detention centre set to be reopened
Australian and Papua New Guinean officials have told locals on Manus Island that a mothballed detention centre for asylum seekers will be reopened.
- Australian Defence Department to cut 1,000 civilian jobs
The Federal Government has confirmed it plans to cut 1,000 civilian jobs from the Defence Department over three years.
- Federal Opposition seizes on Villawood bomb revelation
Police say a small homemade bomb was found at the Villawood Immigration Detention Centre a month before a riot there resulted in nine buildings being gutted by fire.
- Reserve Bank of Australia leaves interest rates on hold at 4.75%
The Reserve Bank of Australia has left official interest rates on hold at 4.75 per cent for the sixth straight month.
- Pensioners to get free TV set-top boxes
Pensioners will be given free digital television set-top boxes in the federal budget so they will not be left in the dark when the analog system is switched off around the country by 2013.
- Victorian Premier Ted Baillieu calls for probe into Sir Ken's dismissal from the Victoria Police
Victorian Premier Ted Baillieu has asked the Solictor-General to look at the legality of the dismissal of the state's Deputy Police Commissioner.
- Tornado tears through Auckland suburbs
A tornado has torn through suburbs of Auckland, New Zealand, damaging buildings, homes and cars.
- World population boom increasing global food crisis
The United Nations says the world's population is growing faster than expected and predicts it will hit seven billion by the end of this year (2011).
- US forces kill Al Qaeda figurehead — Osama bin Laden - in firefight
United States President Barack Obama has confirmed the US has conducted an operation in which Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden was killed by American special forces — SEAL Team 6.
- Muammar Gaddafi's tanks hit rebel city of Misrata as Gaddafi’s son is buried
Forces loyal to Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi have launched a fresh attack on the besieged rebel city of Misrata as his son, killed in a NATO-led air strike, was buried in Tripoli.
- US President Barack Obama won't release photo of Osama bin Laden
United States President Barack Obama says he has decided not to release a photograph showing the body of Osama bin Laden, for fear it will become a propaganda tool.
FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)
| |
|
|
The |
Family |
Ind./ |
| |
ALP |
L-NP |
Greens |
First#* |
Others |
|
RECENT ELECTION RESULTS |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Election March 2, 1996 |
38.8 |
47.3 (8.6) |
1.7 |
- |
12.2 |
|
Election October 3^, 1998 |
40.1 |
39.5 (5.3) |
2.1 |
- |
18.3 |
|
Election November 10, 2001 |
37.8 |
43 (5.6) |
4.4 |
- |
13.8 |
|
Election October 9, 2004 |
37.6 |
46.4 (5.9) |
7.2 |
2.0 |
6.8 |
|
Election November 24, 2007 |
43.4 |
42.1 (5.9) |
7.8 |
2.0 |
4.7 |
| Election, August 21, 2010 |
38.0 |
43.6 (3.7) |
11.8 |
2.3 |
4.3 |
|
MORGAN POLL |
|
|
|
|
|
|
August 22/23, 2010 (SMS) |
40.5 |
44.5 |
10 |
** |
5 |
|
August 25/26, 2010 (Phone) |
36 |
40 (3) |
13 |
2 |
9 |
|
August 28/29 & September 4/5, 2010 (Face) |
40.5 |
39.5 (4) |
15 |
2 |
3 |
|
September 15/16, 2010 (Phone) |
35.5 |
42.5 (3) |
15 |
2.5 |
4.5 |
|
September 18/19, 2010 (Face) |
40.5 |
41 (4.5) |
13 |
2 |
3.5 |
|
October 2/3, 2010 (Face) |
44 |
38.5 (3) |
12 |
2 |
3.5 |
|
October 9/10 & 16/17, 2010 (Face) |
43 |
40.5 (3) |
10.5 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
|
October 23/24 & 30/31, 2010 (Face) |
43 |
40.5 (4) |
10.5 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
|
November 6/7 & 13/14, 2010 (Face) |
41 |
40 (4) |
12 |
2.5 |
4.5 |
|
November 20/21 & 27/28, 2010 (Face) |
40.5 |
42 (3.5) |
12 |
1.5 |
4 |
|
December 4/5, 2010 (Face) |
40.5 |
40.5 (4.5) |
13.5 |
1.5 |
4 |
|
December 8-12, 2010 (Phone) |
31 |
46 (2) |
13.5 |
2 |
7.5 |
|
December 11/12, 2010 (Face) |
38 |
43 (5) |
13.5 |
1.5 |
4 |
|
January 8/9, 2011 (Face) |
38.5 |
44 (5.5) |
13 |
1.5 |
3 |
|
January 15/16 & 22/23, 2011 (Face) |
40.5 |
41.5 (4) |
11.5 |
2 |
4.5 |
|
February 1-3, 2011 (Phone) |
35 |
42.5 (1.5) |
12 |
3 |
7.5 |
|
January 29/30 & February 5/6, 2011 (Face) |
39 |
43 (5) |
12.5 |
1.5 |
4 |
|
February 12/13 & 19/20, 2011 (Face) |
39.5 |
43 (3) |
11.5 |
2 |
4 |
|
February 21-23, 2011 (Phone) |
36 |
45.5 (3.5) |
9.5 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| (February 24, 2011) - Prime Minister Julia Gillard reintroduces the prospect of a carbon tax |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
February 26/27, 2011 (Face) |
41 |
41 (4) |
11.5 |
1 |
5.5 |
|
March 5/6, 2011 (Face) |
37 |
46.5 (5) |
9.5 |
1 |
6 |
|
February 26/27 & March 5/6, 2011 (Face) (TOTAL) |
39 |
44 (4.5) |
10.5 |
1 |
5.5 |
|
March 8-10, 2011 (Phone) |
31.5 |
47.5 (1.5) |
10 |
1.5 |
9.5 |
|
March 12/13, 2011 (Face) |
38 |
44.5 (4.5) |
11.5 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
|
March 16/17, 2011 (Phone) |
35.5 |
42.5 (3) |
12 |
1.5 |
8.5 |
|
March 19/20, 2011 (Face) |
39.5 |
40 (3) |
12.5 |
2 |
6 |
|
March 22-24, 2011 (Phone) |
34.5 |
47 (2.5) |
10 |
1 |
7.5 |
|
March 26/27, 2011 (Face) |
35.5 |
47 (6) |
11.5 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
|
March 19/20 & 26/27, 2011 (Face) (TOTAL) |
37.5 |
43.5 (4.5) |
12 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
|
April 2/3, 2011 (Face) |
36.5 |
48 (6) |
9.5 |
2 |
4 |
|
April 9/10 & 16/17, 2011 (Face) |
35 |
46 (4.5) |
11.5 |
2 |
5.5 |
|
April 23/24 & 30/ May 1, 2011 (Face) |
37 |
46 (5.5) |
10.5 |
2 |
4.5 |
|
May 3/4, 2011 (Phone) |
34 |
46 (1.5) |
11 |
2 |
7 |
|
May 7/8, 2011 (Face) |
34 |
48 (3) |
11 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
Note: National Party results are in brackets. # Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.
^ 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.
* The Family First Party were included as an option on Federal Voting Intention from October 30, 2004.
**Family First were not reported in the SMS Morgan Poll of August 22/23, 2010.
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)
| |
ALP |
L-NP |
|
|
| |
% |
% |
|
|
|
Election, March 2, 1996 |
46.4 |
53.6 |
|
|
|
Election, October 3^, 1998 |
51 |
49 |
|
|
|
Election, November 10, 2001 |
49 |
51 |
|
|
|
Election, October 9, 2004 |
47.3 |
52.7 |
|
|
|
Election, November 24, 2007 |
52.7 |
47.3 |
|
|
|
Election, August 21, 2010 |
50.1 |
49.9 |
|
|
|
|
Preferences distributed
by how electors
say they will vote |
Preferences distributed
by how electors voted
at the 2010 election |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
| MORGAN POLL |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
|
August 22/23, 2010 (SMS) |
50.5 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
|
August 25/26, 2010 (Phone) |
51.5 |
48.5 |
51 |
49 |
|
August 28/29 & September 4/5, 2010 (Face) |
54.5 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
45.5 |
|
September 15/16, 2010 (Phone) |
52 |
48 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
|
September 18/19, 2010 (Face) |
54 |
46 |
53.5 |
46.5 |
|
October 2/3, 2010 (Face) |
56.5 |
43.5 |
55.5 |
44.5 |
|
October 9/10 & 16/17, 2010 (Face) |
55 |
45 |
54 |
46 |
|
October 23/24, 30/31, 2010 (Face) |
54 |
46 |
54 |
46 |
|
November 6/7 & 13/14, 2010 (Face) |
54.5 |
45.5 |
54 |
46 |
|
November 20/21 & 27/28, 2010 (Face) |
52.5 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
|
December 4/5, 2010 (Face) |
52.5 |
47.5 |
53 |
47 |
|
December 8-12, 2010 (Phone) |
46 |
54 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
|
December 11/12, 2010 (Face) |
48.5 |
51.5 |
50 |
50 |
|
January 8/9, 2011 (Face) |
50 |
50 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
|
January 15/16 & 22/23, 2011 (Face) |
52 |
48 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
|
February 1-3, 2011 (Phone) |
49.5 |
50.5 |
49 |
51 |
|
January 29/30 & February 5/6, 2011(Face) |
50 |
50 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
|
February 12/13 & 19/20, 2011 (Face) |
49.5 |
50.5 |
51 |
49 |
|
February 21-23, 2011 (Phone) |
48.5 |
51.5 |
47 |
53 |
| |
|
|
|
|
| (February 24, 2011) - Prime Minister Julia Gillard reintroduces the prospect of a carbon tax |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
February 26/27, 2011 (Face) |
51.5 |
48.5 |
53.5 |
46.5 |
|
March 5/6, 2011 (Face) |
46 |
54 |
48 |
52 |
|
February 26/27 & March 5/6, 2011 (Face) (TOTAL) |
48.5 |
51.5 |
50 |
50 |
|
March 8-10, 2011 (Phone) |
44.5 |
55.5 |
44 |
56 |
|
March 12/13, 2011 (Face) |
48.5 |
51.5 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
|
March 16/17, 2011 (Phone) |
49.5 |
50.5 |
49 |
51 |
|
March 19/20, 2011 (Face) |
52 |
48 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
|
March 22-24, 2011 (Phone) |
45.5 |
54.5 |
46 |
54 |
|
March 26/27, 2011 (Face) |
46.5 |
53.5 |
47 |
53 |
|
March 19/20 & 26/27, 2011 (Face) (TOTAL) |
49 |
51 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
|
April 2/3, 2011 (Face) |
44.5 |
55.5 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
|
April 9/10 & 16/17, 2011 (Face) |
45 |
55 |
47 |
53 |
|
April 23/24 & 30/ May 1, 2011 (Face) |
46.5 |
53.5 |
48 |
52 |
|
May 3/4, 2011 (Phone) |
46 |
54 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
|
May 7/8, 2011 (Face) |
45.5 |
54.5 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
^ 1998 Federal Election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.
THINK WILL WIN
Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal Election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"
|
Think Will Win |
ALP |
L-NP |
Can't Say |
| |
% |
% |
% |
|
August 25/26, 2010 (Phone) |
33.5 |
42 |
24.5 |
|
August 28/29 & September 4/5, 2010 (Face) |
43 |
37.5 |
19.5 |
|
September 15/16, 2010 (Phone) |
34 |
42.5 |
23.5 |
|
September 18/19, 2010 (Face) |
38.5 |
43.5 |
18 |
|
October 2/3, 2010 (Face) |
41 |
40 |
19 |
|
October 9/10 & 16/17, 2010 (Face) |
43 |
41.5 |
15.5 |
|
October 23/24 & 30/31, 2010 (Face) |
41.5 |
42 |
16.5 |
|
November 6/7 & 13/14, 2010 (Face) |
42 |
41.5 |
16.5 |
|
November 20/21 & 27/28, 2010 (Face) |
39 |
45 |
16 |
|
December 4/5, 2010 (Face) |
30.5 |
52.5 |
17 |
|
December 8-12, 2010 (Phone) |
31.5 |
56.5 |
12 |
|
December 11/12, 2010 (Face) |
32.5 |
53 |
14.5 |
|
January 8/9, 2011 (Face) |
35.5 |
56 |
8.5 |
|
January 15/16 & 22/23, 2011 (Face) |
38.5 |
49 |
12.5 |
|
February 1-3, 2011 (Phone) |
37 |
48.5 |
14.5 |
|
January 29/30 & February 5/6, 2011 (Face) |
37.5 |
52 |
10.5 |
|
February 12/13 & 19/20, 2011 (Face) |
41.5 |
47.5 |
11 |
|
February 21-23, 2011 (Phone) |
35 |
52.5 |
12.5 |
| |
|
|
|
| (February 24, 2011) - Prime Minister Julia Gillard reintroduces the prospect of a carbon tax |
| |
|
|
|
|
February 26/27, 2011 (Face) |
41 |
46.5 |
12.5 |
|
March 5/6, 2011 (Face) |
34.5 |
53 |
12.5 |
|
February 26/27 & March 5/6, 2011 (Face) |
37.5 |
50 |
12.5 |
|
March 8-10, 2011 (Phone) |
28.5 |
58 |
13.5 |
|
March 12/13, 2011 (Face) |
37 |
54 |
9 |
|
March 16/17, 2011 (Phone) |
30.5 |
57 |
12.5 |
|
March 19/20, 2011 (Face) |
37 |
51.5 |
11.5 |
|
March 22-24, 2011 (Phone) |
37 |
52.5 |
10.5 |
|
March 26/27, 2011 (Face) |
32.5 |
57 |
10.5 |
|
March 19/20 & 26/27, 2011 (Face) (TOTAL) |
34.5 |
54.5 |
11 |
|
April 2/3, 2011 (Face) |
27.5 |
62.5 |
10 |
|
April 9/10 & 16/17, 2011 (Face) |
28.5 |
60.5 |
11 |
|
April 23/24 & 30/ May 1, 2011 (Face) |
27 |
62.5 |
10.5 |
|
May 3/4, 2011 (Phone) |
26 |
62.5 |
11.5 |
|
May 7/8, 2011 (Face) |
31.5 |
59 |
9.5 |
AUSTRALIA HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION
Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”
| |
Interviewing Dates — ALP Government (Julia Gillard v Tony Abbott) |
| |
June
25-28 |
June 26/27
& July 3/4 |
July
10/11 |
July
17/18 |
July
20/21 |
July
24/25 |
July
27/28 |
July 31/
Aug 1 |
Aug
3 |
Aug
7/8 |
Aug
14 |
Aug
14/15 |
Aug
18/19 |
Aug
25/26 |
Aug 28/29
& Sep 4/5 |
| |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Phone |
Phone |
Face |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Right direction |
54.5 |
55.5 |
54.5 |
52 |
54.5 |
51 |
51.5 |
52 |
50 |
54 |
51 |
53 |
42.5 |
45 |
51 |
|
Wrong direction |
29.5 |
24.5 |
23.5 |
28.5 |
32.5 |
27 |
31 |
28 |
34.5 |
27.5 |
35 |
28 |
38.5 |
33 |
25 |
|
Roy Morgan GCR* |
125 |
131 |
131 |
123.5 |
122 |
124 |
120.5 |
124 |
115.5 |
126.5 |
116 |
125 |
104 |
112 |
126 |
|
Can’t say |
16 |
20 |
22 |
19.5 |
13 |
22 |
17.5 |
20 |
15.5 |
18.5 |
14 |
19 |
19 |
22 |
24 |
|
TOTAL |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
| |
Interviewing Dates — ALP Government (Julia Gillard v Tony Abbott) |
| |
Sep
15/16 |
Sep
18/19 |
Oct
2/3 |
Oct 9/10
& 16/17 |
Oct 23/24
& 30/31 |
Nov 6/7
& 13/14 |
Nov 20/21
& 27/28 |
Dec
4/5 |
Dec
8-12 |
Dec
11/12 |
Jan
8/9 |
Jan 15/16
& 22/23 |
Feb
1-3 |
Jan 29/30 & Feb 5/6 |
Feb 12/13
& 19/20 |
Feb
21-23 |
| |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Right direction |
50 |
53.5 |
53.5 |
54 |
54 |
52 |
52.5 |
52 |
52.5 |
49 |
53 |
57 |
53.5 |
54 |
52 |
57 |
|
Wrong direction |
31 |
25.5 |
28 |
26.5 |
26 |
29 |
27.5 |
30.5 |
33.5 |
30.5 |
29.5 |
26.5 |
31 |
29 |
29.5 |
29.5 |
|
Roy Morgan GCR* |
119 |
128 |
125.5 |
127.5 |
128 |
123 |
125 |
121.5 |
119 |
118.5 |
123.5 |
130.5 |
122.5 |
125 |
122.5 |
127.5 |
|
Can’t say |
19 |
21 |
18.5 |
19.5 |
20 |
19 |
20 |
17.5 |
14 |
20.5 |
17.5 |
16.5 |
15.5 |
17 |
18.5 |
13.5 |
|
TOTAL |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
| |
Interviewing Dates — ALP Government (Julia Gillard v Tony Abbott) |
| |
Feb 26/27
& Mar 5/6 |
Mar
8-10 |
Mar
12/13 |
Mar
16/17 |
Mar
19/20 |
Mar
22-24 |
Mar
26/27 |
Mar 19/20
& 26/27 |
Apr
2/3 |
Apr 9/10
& 16/17 |
Apr 23/24
& 30/ May 1 |
May
3/4 |
May
7/8 |
|
|
| |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
|
|
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
|
Right direction |
49 |
53.5 |
52.5 |
52.5 |
52.5 |
44.5 |
45.5 |
49 |
44.5 |
46 |
46.5 |
45 |
46.5 |
|
|
|
Wrong direction |
36 |
33.5 |
29.5 |
34.5 |
33.5 |
43.5 |
37 |
35.5 |
37 |
34 |
34.5 |
41 |
31.5 |
|
|
|
Roy Morgan GCR* |
113 |
120 |
123 |
118 |
119 |
101 |
108.5 |
113.5 |
107.5 |
112 |
112 |
104 |
115 |
|
|
|
Can’t say |
15 |
13 |
18 |
13 |
14 |
12 |
17.5 |
15.5 |
18.5 |
20 |
19 |
14 |
22 |
|
|
|
TOTAL |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
|
|
Phone: Telephone survey method; Face: Face-to-face survey method.
* Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (100 plus the difference between the percentage of people who say the country is “going in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “going in seriously the wrong direction”).
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
|
Sample Size |
Percentage Estimate |
| |
40%-60% |
25% or 75% |
10% or 90% |
5% or 95% |
|
500 |
±4.5 |
±3.9 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
| 1,000 |
±3.2 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
±1.4 |
|
1,500 |
±2.6 |
±2.2 |
±1.5 |
±1.1 |
|
2,000 |
±2.2 |
±1.9 |
±1.3 |
±1 |
The Morgan Poll was the most accurate of all polling companies at the 2007 Federal Election for both primary vote and two-party preferred predictions (sample 2,115 electors).
The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland Election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).
The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian Election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors). The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.
Note: The recent discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading.
The following included comment says it all: “I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%). Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll. On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s.”
View Federal Voting Intention Trend
The Roy Morgan Research Centre conducts the Morgan Poll in Australia and New Zealand and is the Gallup International Association Member
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.
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