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The latest telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the last three nights, May 31 — June 2, 2011, shows the L-NP (59%) with its biggest winning lead over the ALP (41%) since the Morgan Poll began recording Two-Party preferred results in early 1993.

A clear majority of Australian electors (53%, down 1% since March 2011) oppose the Gillard Government’s plan to introduce a carbon tax, 37% (down 1%) support the proposed carbon tax and 10% (up 2%) can’t say.

Although most oppose the carbon tax Australians are concerned about Global Warming. When asked for their view of Global Warming most Australians (50%, down 4% since January 2010) say that ‘If we don’t act now it will be too late’ and a further 15% (up 3%) say ‘It is already too late,’ only 32% (up 1%) believe that ‘Concerns are exaggerated,’ and 3% (unchanged) can’t say.

Moreover opinion is still evenly divided on Opposition Leader Tony Abbott’s promise to overturn the Gillard Government’s proposed carbon tax legislation if the Liberal Party is elected: 45% (up 1%) of electors support overturning the carbon tax legislation cf. 45% (down 1%) oppose overturning the carbon tax legislation.

Global Warming in Australia

• A clear majority of Australian electors (67%) are aware that Australia is responsible for about 1% of the world’s total carbon dioxide emissions and a majority (64%) believes that Australia’s proposed carbon tax will make no difference to the world’s climate. However, 52% of ALP supporters and 67% of Greens supporters believe a carbon tax will make a difference to the world’s climate compared to only 15% of L-NP supporters.
  
  
• Few Australians (14%) believe the computer projection referred to by Prime Minister Julia Gillard that sea levels will rise 1.1 metres in the next 100 years, 44% of Australian electors believe global sea levels will rise by more than 20cm but less than 1.1 metres; 32% believe global sea levels will rise by 20cm or less and 10% believe global sea levels will not rise.
  
  
• A majority of Australian electors (54%) believe that global sea level changes are mainly due to Global Warming, 37% believe they are not mainly due to Global Warming. Interestingly, 76% of ALP supporters and 80% of Greens supporters believe sea level changes are due to Global Warming compared to only 39% of L-NP supporters.
  
  
• Although a clear majority of Australian electors (72%) do not believe the recent floods in Queensland and bushfires in Victoria a couple of years ago are due to Global Warming compared to some 20% that believe the floods and bushfires are due to Global Warming and 8% can’t say.
  

Federal Voting Intention

The telephone Morgan Poll shows the L-NP primary vote is 50%, well ahead of the ALP 30%. Support for the minor parties shows the Greens 9.5% and Independents/Others 10.5%.

If a Federal election were held today the L-NP would easily win according to this Morgan Poll.

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is at 106.5, with 46.5% of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction,’ while 40% say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction.

The latest weekly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for the weekend of May 28/29, 2011, was 112.7, down 3.0pts from May 14/15 2011.

Gary Morgan says:

“The issue of Global Warming and carbon dioxide and the carbon tax are complex and nuanced with environmental, economic and political issues in play.

“Although most Australians are concerned about Global Warming, sceptics are gaining ground — now 32% of Australians believe ‘concerns (about Global Warming) are exaggerated’ — this represents a 19% increase in 5 years (In April 2006 only 13% believed concerns were exaggerated’).

“The issue is highly party political with a majority of L-NP supporters (54%) believing ‘concerns are exaggerated’ versus only 13% of ALP supporters and 6% of Greens supporters. A clear majority of supporters of all parties are aware of Australia’s small (1% contribution to world carbon dioxide emissions), even knowing this, some 31% believe Australia’s proposed carbon tax will make a difference to the world’s climate.

“However, a clear majority of Australian electors (53%, down 1% since March 2011) are firmly against the Gillard Government’s proposed carbon tax legislation compared to only 37% (down 1%) that support it.

“Despite the majority of Australians opposing the carbon tax, if it is finally introduced electors are evenly split between those who want Opposition leader Tony Abbott to overturn the carbon tax legislation if elected (45%, up 1%) and those who do not want Opposition Leader Tony Abbott to overturn the carbon tax legislation if he is elected (45%, down 1%).”

“The worries for the Government are not confined to the carbon tax with the L-NP (59%) now having its largest lead over the ALP (41%) since the Howard Government lost office in late 2007. If an election were held today the L-NP would win with a massive majority."

Electors were asked: “If a Federal Election for the House of Representatives were held today — which party would receive your first preference?”

This telephone Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last three nights — May 31 — June 2, 2011 with an Australia-wide cross-section 887 Australians aged 14+ including 742 electors, of all electors surveyed, 3.5% did not name a party.

*Telephone Morgan Polls are conducted using the same methodologies used by other major telephone polls — Nielsen, Newspoll, Galaxy. In analysing telephone Morgan Poll results, it is worth noting that telephone polls are good at capturing the response to current events and have typically been biased towards the L-NP, obtain a higher figure for Minor parties and Independents and  more ‘responsive’ to current events.

Global Warming & Carbon Tax Questions

Question 1:

Respondents were asked: “Which of the following is closest to your view about Global Warming?” Do you think: Concerns are exaggerated; if we don’t act now it will be too late; it is already too late?”

A plurality of Australians (50%, down 4% since January 2010) says ‘If we don’t act now it will be too late’ while slightly less than a third (32%, up 1%) say ‘Concerns are exaggerated’ and a further 15% (up 3%) say ‘It is already too late.’

However, there is a clear division along party lines with clear majorities of ALP supporters (69%) and Greens supporters (74%) saying ‘If we don’t act now it will be too late’ compared to only 33% of L-NP supporters while a majority of L-NP supporters (54%) say ‘Concerns are exaggerated’ compared to only 13% of ALP supporters and just 6% of Greens supporters.

About Global Warming	Total all people aged 14+
	April 2006	Nov 2008	May 2009	Aug 2009	Nov 2009	Dec 2009	Jan 2010	May 31 — June 1, 2011
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Concerns are  exaggerated	13	19	26	27	30	31	31	32
If we don’t act now it will be too late	67	64	58	58	52	50	54	50
It is already too late	15	14	12	11	14	14	12	15
Can’t say	5	3	4	4	4	5	3	3
TOTAL	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Australians 14+	Electors	Federal Voting Intention
	May 31 — June 1, 2011	May 31 — June 1, 2011	ALP	L-NP	Lib	Nat#	Greens	Others	Can’t say
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Concerns are exaggerated	32	35	13	54	54	67	6	28	38
If we don’t act now  it will be too late	50	48	69	33	34	19	74	42	39
It is already too late	15	14	15	10	10	14	17	21	23
Can’t say	3	3	3	3	2	-	3	9	-
TOTAL	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Question 2:

“Prime Minister Julia Gillard has announced the Gillard Government wants to place a price on carbon with companies paying a carbon tax. Do you support or oppose the Gillard Government's proposed carbon tax legislation?”

A majority of electors (53%) oppose the Gillard Government’s proposed legislation to ‘place a price on carbon’ — including a clear majority of L-NP supporters (79%), however only 20% of ALP supporters and just 18% of Greens supporters oppose the proposed legislation.

Although only 37% of electors support the proposed legislation, a majority of ALP supporters (69%) and Greens supporters (72%) agree with the proposal but only 15% of L-NP supporters want this legislation.

	Electors			Federal Voting Intention
	March 8-10, 2011	March 16/17, 2011	May 31 — June 1, 2011	ALP	L-NP	Greens	Others	Can’t say
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Support legislation	33	38	37	69	15	72	26	24
Oppose legislation	57	54	53	20	79	18	59	45
Can’t say	10	8	10	11	6	10	15	31
TOTAL	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Question 3:

"Do you support or oppose Opposition Leader Tony Abbott's promise to overturn the Government's proposed carbon tax legislation if elected?"

The question related to Opposition Leader Tony Abbott’s promise overturn the Gillard Government’s legislation if elected. Electors were evenly split with 45% of electors opposing Tony Abbott’s promise to overturn the Gillard Government’s proposed carbon tax legislation if elected and 45% supporting Abbot’s promise to overturn the legislation.

However, a large majority of L-NP supporters (72%) support Abbott’s promise compared to only 15% of ALP supporters and 10% of Greens supporters. A clear majority of ALP supporters (77%) and Greens supporters (81%) do not want Abbott to rescind the ‘carbon tax’ if elected compared to only 20% of L-NP supporters.

	Electors			Federal Voting Intention
	March 8-10, 2011	March 16/17, 2011	May 31 — June 1, 2011	ALP	L-NP	Greens	Others	Can’t say
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Support Abbott overturning tax	44	44	45	15	72	10	44	9
Oppose Abbott overturning tax	45	46	45	77	20	81	42	34
Can’t say	11	10	10	8	8	9	14	57
TOTAL	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Electors	Support or Oppose Carbon Tax
	May 31 — June 1, 2011	Support	Oppose	Can’t say
	%	%	%	%
Support Abbott overturning tax	45	4	78	15
Oppose Abbott overturning tax	45	92	15	33
Can’t say	10	4	7	52
TOTAL	100	100	100	100

Question 4:

“Australia is only responsible for about 1% of the world’s total carbon dioxide emissions. Are you aware of this or not?”

	Australians 14+	Electors	Federal Voting Intention
	May 31 — June 1, 2011	May 31 — June 1, 2011	ALP	L-NP	Greens	Others	Can’t say
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Yes, aware	63	67	62	72	63	72	60
No, not aware	37	33	38	28	37	28	40
TOTAL	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Electors	Support or Oppose Carbon Tax
	May 31 — June 1, 2011	Support	Oppose	Can’t say
	%	%	%	%
Yes, aware	67	69	71	44
No, not aware	33	31	29	56
TOTAL	100	100	100	100

Question 5:

“In your opinion will the proposed carbon tax make any difference to the world’s climate or not?”

	Australians 14+	Electors	Federal Voting Intention
	May 31 — June 1, 2011	May 31 — June 1, 2011	ALP	L-NP	Greens	Others	Can’t say
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Yes	33	31	52	15	67	16	27
No	62	64	39	83	32	79	59
Can’t say	5	5	9	2	1	5	14
TOTAL	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Electors	Support or Oppose Carbon Tax
	May 31 — June 1, 2011	Support	Oppose	Can’t say
	%	%	%	%
Yes	31	64	9	29
No	64	31	90	50
Can’t say	5	5	1	21
TOTAL	100	100	100	100

Question 6:

“For the last 100 years global sea levels have risen by about 2 mm a year or 20 cm. Prime Minister Julia Gillard has referred to computer projections which show Global Warming will cause sea levels to rise 1.1 metres over the next 100 years. Which do you think is more likely to occur over the next 100 years, global sea levels to: Not rise, rise by 20 cm or less, rise by more than 20cm, but less than 1.1 metres or rise by 1.1 metres or more?”

	Australians 14+	Electors	Federal Voting Intention
	May 31 — June 1, 2011	May 31 — June 1, 2011	ALP	L-NP	Greens	Others	Can’t say
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Not rise	11	10	7	13	2	7	30
Rise by 20cm or less	31	32	23	42	11	36	37
Rise by more than 20cm, but less than 1.1 metres	43	44	54	37	56	43	21
Rise by 1.1 metres or more	15	14	16	8	31	14	12
TOTAL	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Electors	Support or Oppose Carbon Tax
	May 31 — June 1, 2011	Support	Oppose	Can’t say
	%	%	%	%
Not rise	10	4	13	19
Rise by 20cm or less	32	18	45	21
Rise by more than 20cm, but less than 1.1 metres	44	56	34	48
Rise by 1.1 metres or more	14	22	8	12
TOTAL	100	100	100	100

Question 7:

“Do you believe these sea level changes are mainly due to Global Warming or not?”

	Australians 14+	Electors	Federal Voting Intention
	May 31 — June 1, 2011	May 31 — June 1, 2011	ALP	L-NP	Greens	Others	Can’t say
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Yes	56	54	76	39	80	51	30
No	35	37	16	52	11	39	51
Can’t say	9	9	8	9	9	10	19
TOTAL	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Electors	Support or Oppose Carbon Tax
	May 31 — June 1, 2011	Support	Oppose	Can’t say
	%	%	%	%
Yes	54	82	32	67
No	37	11	59	16
Can’t say	9	7	9	17
TOTAL	100	100	100	100

Question 8:

“Do you believe that recent devastating bushfires in Victoria and flooding in Queensland are mainly due to Global Warming or not?”

	Australians 14+	Electors	Federal Voting Intention
	May 31 — June 1, 2011	May 31 — June 1, 2011	ALP	L-NP	Greens	Others	Can’t say
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Yes, due to Global Warming	22	20	32	10	33	22	12
No, not due to Global Warming	70	72	58	85	50	67	76
Can’t say	8	8	10	5	17	11	12
TOTAL	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Electors	Support or Oppose Carbon Tax
	May 31 — June 1, 2011	Support	Oppose	Can’t say
	%	%	%	%
Yes, due to Global Warming	20	34	9	24
No, not due to Global Warming	72	53	87	59
Can’t say	8	13	4	17
TOTAL	100	100	100	100

For further information:

Gary Morgan:            Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:        Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

Margin of Error

The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.3	±3.8	±2.6	±1.9
1,000	±3.0	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4
1,500	±2.5	±2.2	±1.5	±1.1
2,000	±2.1	±1.9	±1.3	±1.0

During the period: 

• Australia’s Carbon price will be 'well south' of $40 a tonne
  The Federal Government says the carbon price will be "well south" of a reported $40 a tonne, despite research showing the high price is needed to give investors incentive to switch from coal-fired power plants to gas.
  
  
• UN questions legality of Malaysia refugee swap
  The United Nations high commissioner for Human Rights has questioned Australia's asylum seeker deal with Malaysia, saying the plan could violate international law.
  
  
• Digger's death won't break resolve, says Prime Minister Gillard
  Prime Minister Julia Gillard has reaffirmed Australia's commitment to the war in Afghanistan after this morning's announcement that a soldier had died while serving in Uruzgan province.
  
  
• Business carbon price 'a vote of no-confidence'
  A weekend of intense negotiations on carbon tax has begun in Canberra as the multi-party committee on climate change continues to thrash out the details of the Government's pricing scheme.
  
  
• NBN's first mainland site to go live
  Prime Minister Julia Gillard will today switch on the first site of the National Broadband Network on mainland Australia in the electorate of New England, held by Independent Tony Windsor.
  
  
• Western Australian Premier Colin Barnett fuming over Mining Tax threats
  Western Australia Premier Colin Barnett has called the Federal Government "erratic, abusive and threatening" as the brawl over the Mining Tax escalates.
  
  
• Strong dollar creates 'tough times' for tourism
  The high Australian dollar and spiralling cost of living are continuing to pressure North Queensland's tourism industry.
  
  
• 800k campaign to lure more tourists to Kakadu
  The Northern Territory Government will spend $800,000 on a new tourism campaign aimed to lure more Australians to Kakadu.
  
  
• Bill Hunter: Australia's favourite ocker
  Many of Australia's most iconic films have one thing in common: Bill Hunter, who has died at the age of 71.
  
  
• Embattled IMF chief quits
  Dominique Strauss-Kahn has resigned as managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), days after he was charged with the alleged sexual assault and attempted rape of a maid at a New York hotel.

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

			The	Family	Ind./
	ALP	L-NP	Greens	First#*	Others
RECENT ELECTION RESULTS	%	%	%	%	%
Election March 2, 1996	38.8	47.3 (8.6)	1.7	-	12.2
Election October 3^, 1998	40.1	39.5 (5.3)	2.1	-	18.3
Election November 10, 2001	37.8	43 (5.6)	4.4	-	13.8
Election October 9, 2004	37.6	46.4 (5.9)	7.2	2.0	6.8
Election November 24, 2007	43.4	42.1 (5.9)	7.8	2.0	4.7
Election, August 21, 2010	38.0	43.6 (3.7)	11.8	2.3	4.3
MORGAN POLL
August 22/23, 2010 (SMS)	40.5	44.5	10	**	5
August 25/26, 2010 (Phone)	36	40 (3)	13	2	9
August 28/29 & September 4/5, 2010 (Face)	40.5	39.5 (4)	15	2	3
September 15/16, 2010 (Phone)	35.5	42.5 (3)	15	2.5	4.5
September 18/19, 2010 (Face)	40.5	41 (4.5)	13	2	3.5
October 2/3, 2010 (Face)	44	38.5 (3)	12	2	3.5
October 9/10 & 16/17, 2010 (Face)	43	40.5 (3)	10.5	2.5	3.5
October 23/24 & 30/31, 2010 (Face)	43	40.5 (4)	10.5	1.5	4.5
November 6/7 & 13/14, 2010 (Face)	41	40 (4)	12	2.5	4.5
November 20/21 & 27/28, 2010 (Face)	40.5	42 (3.5)	12	1.5	4
December 4/5, 2010 (Face)	40.5	40.5 (4.5)	13.5	1.5	4
December 8-12, 2010 (Phone)	31	46 (2)	13.5	2	7.5
December 11/12, 2010 (Face)	38	43 (5)	13.5	1.5	4
January 8/9, 2011 (Face)	38.5	44 (5.5)	13	1.5	3
January 15/16 & 22/23, 2011 (Face)	40.5	41.5 (4)	11.5	2	4.5
February 1-3, 2011 (Phone)	35	42.5 (1.5)	12	3	7.5
January 29/30 & February 5/6, 2011 (Face)	39	43 (5)	12.5	1.5	4
February 12/13 & 19/20, 2011 (Face)	39.5	43 (3)	11.5	2	4
February 21-23, 2011 (Phone)	36	45.5 (3.5)	9.5	1.5	7.5
(February 24, 2011) - Prime Minister Julia Gillard reintroduces the prospect of a carbon tax
February 26/27, 2011 (Face)	41	41 (4)	11.5	1	5.5
March 5/6, 2011 (Face)	37	46.5 (5)	9.5	1	6
February 26/27 & March 5/6, 2011 (Face) (TOTAL)	39	44 (4.5)	10.5	1	5.5
March 8-10, 2011 (Phone)	31.5	47.5 (1.5)	10	1.5	9.5
March 12/13, 2011 (Face)	38	44.5 (4.5)	11.5	1.5	4.5
March 16/17, 2011 (Phone)	35.5	42.5 (3)	12	1.5	8.5
March 19/20, 2011 (Face)	39.5	40 (3)	12.5	2	6
March 22-24, 2011 (Phone)	34.5	47 (2.5)	10	1	7.5
March 26/27, 2011 (Face)	35.5	47 (6)	11.5	1.5	4.5
March 19/20 & 26/27, 2011 (Face) (TOTAL)	37.5	43.5 (4.5)	12	1.5	5.5
April 2/3, 2011 (Face)	36.5	48 (6)	9.5	2	4
April 9/10 & 16/17, 2011 (Face)	35	46 (4.5)	11.5	2	5.5
April 23/24 & 30/ May 1, 2011 (Face)	37	46 (5.5)	10.5	2	4.5
May 3/4, 2011 (Phone)	34	46 (1.5)	11	2	7
May 7/8, 2011 (Face)	34	48 (3)	11	1.5	5.5
May 14/15, 2011 (Face)	36	44.5 (3)	13	2	4.5
May 21/22 & 28/29, 2011 (Face)	36	45.5 (4.5)	12		6.5
May 31 - June 2, 2011 (Phone)	30	50 (2)	9.5		10.5

Note: National Party results are in brackets. # Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.

^ 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.

* The Family First Party were included as an option on Federal Voting Intention from October 30, 2004.

**Family First were not reported in the SMS Morgan Poll of August 22/23, 2010.

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)

	ALP	L-NP
	%	%
Election, March 2, 1996	46.4	53.6
Election, October 3^, 1998	51	49
Election, November 10, 2001	49	51
Election, October 9, 2004	47.3	52.7
Election, November 24, 2007	52.7	47.3
Election, August 21, 2010	50.1	49.9
	Preferences distributed by how electors say they will vote		Preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2010 election
	%	%	%	%
MORGAN POLL	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP
August 22/23, 2010 (SMS)	50.5	49.5	50.5	49.5
August 25/26, 2010 (Phone)	51.5	48.5	51	49
August 28/29 & September 4/5, 2010 (Face)	54.5	45.5	54.5	45.5
September 15/16, 2010 (Phone)	52	48	50.5	49.5
September 18/19, 2010 (Face)	54	46	53.5	46.5
October 2/3, 2010 (Face)	56.5	43.5	55.5	44.5
October 9/10 & 16/17, 2010 (Face)	55	45	54	46
October 23/24, 30/31, 2010 (Face)	54	46	54	46
November 6/7 & 13/14, 2010 (Face)	54.5	45.5	54	46
November 20/21 & 27/28, 2010 (Face)	52.5	47.5	52.5	47.5
December 4/5, 2010 (Face)	52.5	47.5	53	47
December 8-12, 2010 (Phone)	46	54	45.5	54.5
December 11/12, 2010 (Face)	48.5	51.5	50	50
January 8/9, 2011 (Face)	50	50	50.5	49.5
January 15/16 & 22/23, 2011 (Face)	52	48	52.5	47.5
February 1-3, 2011 (Phone)	49.5	50.5	49	51
January 29/30 & February 5/6, 2011(Face)	50	50	51.5	48.5
February 12/13 & 19/20, 2011 (Face)	49.5	50.5	51	49
February 21-23, 2011 (Phone)	48.5	51.5	47	53
(February 24, 2011) - Prime Minister Julia Gillard reintroduces the prospect of a carbon tax
February 26/27, 2011 (Face)	51.5	48.5	53.5	46.5
March 5/6, 2011 (Face)	46	54	48	52
February 26/27 & March 5/6, 2011 (Face) (TOTAL)	48.5	51.5	50	50
March 8-10, 2011 (Phone)	44.5	55.5	44	56
March 12/13, 2011 (Face)	48.5	51.5	49.5	50.5
March 16/17, 2011 (Phone)	49.5	50.5	49	51
March 19/20, 2011 (Face)	52	48	52.5	47.5
March 22-24, 2011 (Phone)	45.5	54.5	46	54
March 26/27, 2011 (Face)	46.5	53.5	47	53
March 19/20 & 26/27, 2011 (Face) (TOTAL)	49	51	49.5	50.5
April 2/3, 2011 (Face)	44.5	55.5	46.5	53.5
April 9/10 & 16/17, 2011 (Face)	45	55	47	53
April 23/24 & 30/ May 1, 2011 (Face)	46.5	53.5	48	52
May 3/4, 2011 (Phone)	46	54	46.5	53.5
May 7/8, 2011 (Face)	45.5	54.5	45.5	54.5
May 14/15, 2011 (Face)	46.5	53.5	48.5	51.5
May 21/22 & 28/29, 2011 (Face)	46	54	48.5	51.5
May 31 - June 2, 2011 (Phone)	41	59	42	58

^ 1998 Federal Election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.

THINK WILL WIN

Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal Election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"

Think Will Win	ALP	L-NP	Can't Say
	%	%	%
August 25/26, 2010 (Phone)	33.5	42	24.5
August 28/29 & September 4/5, 2010 (Face)	43	37.5	19.5
September 15/16, 2010 (Phone)	34	42.5	23.5
September 18/19, 2010 (Face)	38.5	43.5	18
October 2/3, 2010 (Face)	41	40	19
October 9/10 & 16/17, 2010 (Face)	43	41.5	15.5
October 23/24 & 30/31, 2010 (Face)	41.5	42	16.5
November 6/7 & 13/14, 2010 (Face)	42	41.5	16.5
November 20/21 & 27/28, 2010 (Face)	39	45	16
December 4/5, 2010 (Face)	30.5	52.5	17
December 8-12, 2010 (Phone)	31.5	56.5	12
December 11/12, 2010 (Face)	32.5	53	14.5
January 8/9, 2011 (Face)	35.5	56	8.5
January 15/16 & 22/23, 2011 (Face)	38.5	49	12.5
February 1-3, 2011 (Phone)	37	48.5	14.5
January 29/30 & February 5/6, 2011 (Face)	37.5	52	10.5
February 12/13 & 19/20, 2011 (Face)	41.5	47.5	11
February 21-23, 2011 (Phone)	35	52.5	12.5
(February 24, 2011) - Prime Minister Julia Gillard reintroduces the prospect of a carbon tax
February 26/27, 2011 (Face)	41	46.5	12.5
March 5/6, 2011 (Face)	34.5	53	12.5
February 26/27 & March 5/6, 2011 (Face)	37.5	50	12.5
March 8-10, 2011 (Phone)	28.5	58	13.5
March 12/13, 2011 (Face)	37	54	9
March 16/17, 2011 (Phone)	30.5	57	12.5
March 19/20, 2011 (Face)	37	51.5	11.5
March 22-24, 2011 (Phone)	37	52.5	10.5
March 26/27, 2011 (Face)	32.5	57	10.5
March 19/20 & 26/27, 2011 (Face) (TOTAL)	34.5	54.5	11
April 2/3, 2011 (Face)	27.5	62.5	10
April 9/10 & 16/17, 2011 (Face)	28.5	60.5	11
April 23/24 & 30/ May 1, 2011 (Face)	27	62.5	10.5
May 3/4, 2011 (Phone)	26	62.5	11.5
May 7/8, 2011 (Face)	31.5	59	9.5
May 14/15, 2011 (Face)	34.5	54	11.5
May 21/22 & 28/29, 2011 (Face)	30	58.5	11.5
May 31 - June 2, 2011 (Phone)	25.5	59.5	15

AUSTRALIA HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION

Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

	Interviewing Dates — ALP Government (Julia Gillard v Tony Abbott)
	June 25-28	June 26/27 & July 3/4	July 10/11	July 17/18	July 20/21	July 24/25	July 27/28	July 31/ Aug 1	Aug 3	Aug 7/8	Aug 14	Aug 14/15	Aug 18/19	Aug 25/26	Aug 28/29 & Sep 4/5
	Phone	Face	Face	Face	Phone	Face	Phone	Face	Phone	Face	Phone	Face	Phone	Phone	Face
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Right direction	54.5	55.5	54.5	52	54.5	51	51.5	52	50	54	51	53	42.5	45	51
Wrong direction	29.5	24.5	23.5	28.5	32.5	27	31	28	34.5	27.5	35	28	38.5	33	25
Roy Morgan GCR*	125	131	131	123.5	122	124	120.5	124	115.5	126.5	116	125	104	112	126
Can’t say	16	20	22	19.5	13	22	17.5	20	15.5	18.5	14	19	19	22	24
TOTAL	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Interviewing Dates — ALP Government (Julia Gillard v Tony Abbott)
	Sep 15/16	Sep 18/19	Oct 2/3	Oct 9/10 & 16/17	Oct 23/24 & 30/31	Nov 6/7 & 13/14	Nov 20/21 & 27/28	Dec 4/5	Dec 8-12	Dec 11/12	Jan 8/9	Jan 15/16 & 22/23	Feb 1-3	Jan 29/30 & Feb 5/6	Feb 12/13 & 19/20	Feb 21-23
	Phone	Face	Face	Face	Face	Face	Face	Face	Phone	Face	Face	Face	Phone	Face	Face	Phone
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Right direction	50	53.5	53.5	54	54	52	52.5	52	52.5	49	53	57	53.5	54	52	57
Wrong direction	31	25.5	28	26.5	26	29	27.5	30.5	33.5	30.5	29.5	26.5	31	29	29.5	29.5
Roy Morgan GCR*	119	128	125.5	127.5	128	123	125	121.5	119	118.5	123.5	130.5	122.5	125	122.5	127.5
Can’t say	19	21	18.5	19.5	20	19	20	17.5	14	20.5	17.5	16.5	15.5	17	18.5	13.5
TOTAL	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Interviewing Dates — ALP Government (Julia Gillard v Tony Abbott)
	Feb 26/27 & Mar 5/6	Mar 8-10	Mar 12/13	Mar 16/17	Mar 22-24	Mar 19/20 & 26/27	Apr 2/3	Apr 9/10 & 16/17	Apr 23/24 & 30/ May 1	May 3/4	May 7/8	May 14/15	May 21/22 & 28/29	May 31 - June 2
	Face	Phone	Face	Phone	Phone	Face	Face	Face	Face	Phone	Face	Face	Face	Phone
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Right direction	49	53.5	52.5	52.5	44.5	49	44.5	46	46.5	45	46.5	47	45	46.5
Wrong direction	36	33.5	29.5	34.5	43.5	35.5	37	34	34.5	41	31.5	36.5	37.5	40
Roy Morgan GCR*	113	120	123	118	101	113.5	107.5	112	112	104	115	110.5	107.5	106.5
Can’t say	15	13	18	13	12	15.5	18.5	20	19	14	22	16.5	17.5	13.5
TOTAL	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Phone: Telephone survey method; Face: Face-to-face survey method.

* Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (100 plus the difference between the percentage of people who say the country is “going in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “going in seriously the wrong direction”).

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4
1,500	±2.6	±2.2	±1.5	±1.1
2,000	±2.2	±1.9	±1.3	±1

The Morgan Poll was the most accurate of all polling companies at the 2007 Federal Election for both primary vote and two-party preferred predictions (sample 2,115 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland Election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian Election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors). The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.

Note: The recent discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading.

The following included comment says it all: “I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%).  Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll.  On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s.”

View Federal Voting Intention Trend

The Roy Morgan Research Centre conducts the Morgan Poll in Australia and New Zealand and is the Gallup International Association Member

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

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