L-NP (55.5%) LEAD INCREASES OVER ALP (44.5%)
CLEAR MAJORITY (57%) OF AUSTRALIANS OPPOSE CARBON TAX
| Finding No. 4710 -
This face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over last weekend – October 22/23, 2011 with an Australia-wide cross-section of Australians aged 14+ including 961 electors, of all electors surveyed, 5% did not name a party. This telephone Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two nights, October 25/26, 2011 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 538 electors.:
October 28, 2011 |
The latest telephone Morgan Poll shows a rise in support for the L-NP 55.5% compared to the ALP 44.5% on a Two-Party preferred basis. The L-NP primary vote is 47% still well ahead of the ALP 31%. A separate face-to-face Morgan Poll conducted last weekend showed the L-NP 56.5% even further ahead of the ALP 43.5% on a Two-Party preferred basis.
Support for the minor parties shows the Greens 12.5% (up 2.5%) and Others/ Independents 9.5% (unchanged) according to the latest telephone Morgan Poll conducted over two nights, October 25/26, 2011.
If a Federal election were held today the L-NP would easily win according to today’s Morgan Poll.
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has risen to 102 (up 5pts) with 45% (up 5.5%) — saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction,’ while 43% (up 0.5%) say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction.’
Carbon Tax
A clear majority of electors (57%, up 1% since August 2011) oppose the Gillard Government’s Carbon Tax — despite the legislation passing Federal Parliament in recent weeks compared to only 37% (down 1%) that support it.
Meanwhile, electors are still evenly split on whether Tony Abbott should overturn the Carbon Tax legislation if elected with 48% (unchanged) opposed to Abbott overturning the Carbon Tax compared to 45% (unchanged) that support Abbott overturning the Carbon Tax.
When asked “Which of the following is closest to your view about Global Warming?” 34% of electors said ‘Concerns are exaggerated,’ 43% said ‘If we don’t act now it will be too late’ and a further 20% said ‘It is already too late’ while 3% can’t say.
The latest weekly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating conducted over last weekend, October 22/23, 2011, was at 114.7 (up 2.9pts from October 15/16, 2011).
Gary Morgan says:
“Today’s Morgan Poll shows the L-NP (55.5%) with a strengthening lead over the ALP (44.5%) on a Two-Party preferred basis according to a telephone Morgan Poll conducted on the nights of October 25/26, 2011. Last weekend’s face-to-face Morgan Poll showed the L-NP (56.5%) even further ahead of the ALP (43.5%) — a clear improvement for the L-NP from the previous week’s face-to-face Morgan Poll which showed the L-NP (53.5%) cf. ALP (46.5%).
“The increasing lead for the L-NP comes as a clear majority of Australians (57%, up 1% since August 2011) still oppose the Gillard Government’s Carbon Tax — despite the Carbon Tax legislation now passing through Federal Parliament. However, despite the clear opposition to the Carbon Tax — opinion is divided on whether Opposition Leader Tony Abbott should overturn the Carbon Tax if elected Prime Minister with 48% (unchanged) opposed to Abbott overturning the Carbon Tax compared to 45% (unchanged) who support Abbott overturning the Carbon Tax.”
Electors were asked: “If a Federal Election for the House of Representatives were held today — which party would receive your first preference?”
This face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over last weekend — October 22/23, 2011 with an Australia-wide cross-section of Australians aged 14+ including 961 electors, of all electors surveyed, 5% did not name a party.
This telephone Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two nights, October 25/26, 2011 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 538 electors.
*Telephone Morgan Polls are conducted using the same methodologies used by other major telephone polls — Nielsen, Newspoll, Galaxy. In analysing telephone Morgan Poll results, it is worth noting that telephone polls are good at capturing the response to current events and have typically been biased towards the L-NP, obtain a higher figure for Minor parties and Independents and more ‘responsive’ to current events.
For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094
Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093
Global Warming & Carbon Tax
Fewer 32% (down 5%) Australians say about Global Warming that ‘Concerns are exaggerated’ compared to 44% (unchanged) that say ‘If we don’t act now it will be too late’ and a further 20% (up 3%) that say ‘It is already too late’, 4% can’t say.
Only 37% (down 1%) of Australian electors support the Gillard Government’s Carbon Tax while a clear majority (57%, up 1%) opposes the Carbon Tax and 6% (unchanged) can’t say.
However, when asked whether Opposition Leader Tony Abbott should overturn the Carbon Tax if elected, Australian electors remain evenly split, now 48% (unchanged) oppose Abbott overturning the Carbon Tax compared to 45% (unchanged) who support Abbott overturning the Carbon Tax and 7% (unchanged) can’t say.
Question 1:
Electors were asked: “Which of the following is closest to your view about Global Warming?” Do you think: Concerns are exaggerated; if we don’t act now it will be too late; it is already too late?”
Of Australians (44%, unchanged since August 2011) say ‘If we don’t act now it will be too late’ while slightly less than a third (32%, down 5%) say ‘Concerns are exaggerated’ and a further 20% (up 3%) say ‘It is already too late.’
However, there is a clear division along party lines with clear majorities of ALP supporters (60%) and Greens supporters (56%) saying ‘If we don’t act now it will be too late’ compared to 32% of L-NP supporters while a slight majority of L-NP supporters (51%) say ‘Concerns are exaggerated’ compared to only 15% of ALP supporters and just 11% of Greens supporters.
|
About Global Warming |
Total all people aged 14+ |
|
|
April
2006 |
Nov
2008 |
May
2009 |
Aug
2009 |
Nov
2009 |
Dec
2009 |
Jan
2010 |
June
2011 |
July
2011 |
Aug
2011 |
Oct 25/26,
2011 |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Concerns are
exaggerated |
13 |
19 |
26 |
27 |
30 |
31 |
31 |
32 |
37 |
37 |
32 |
|
If we don’t act now
it will be too late |
67 |
64 |
58 |
58 |
52 |
50 |
54 |
50 |
46 |
44 |
44 |
|
It is already too late |
15 |
14 |
12 |
11 |
14 |
14 |
12 |
15 |
14 |
17 |
20 |
|
Can’t say |
5 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
5 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
4 |
|
TOTAL |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
| |
Electors |
Federal Voting Intention |
| |
Oct 25/26,
2011 |
ALP |
L-NP |
Greens |
Others |
Can’t
say |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Concerns are
exaggerated |
34 |
15 |
51 |
11 |
35 |
15 |
|
If we don’t act now
it will be too late |
43 |
60 |
32 |
56 |
33 |
48 |
|
It is already too late |
20 |
24 |
12 |
30 |
28 |
35 |
|
Can’t say |
3 |
1 |
5 |
3 |
4 |
2 |
|
TOTAL |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
Question 2:
“The Gillard Government's Carbon Tax policy has recently been passed by Federal Parliament. The Carbon Tax policy will charge $23 per tonne of carbon with 500 companies paying the Carbon Tax. Do you support or oppose the Gillard Government's Carbon Tax legislation?”
A majority of Australians (57% up 1%) oppose the Gillard Government’s proposed legislation to ‘place a price on carbon’ — including a clear majority of L-NP supporters (86%), however only 27% of ALP supporters and just 22% of Greens supporters oppose the proposed legislation.
Although only 37% (down 1%) of electors support the proposed legislation, a majority of ALP supporters (64%) and Greens supporters (73%) agree with the proposal but only 10% of L-NP supporters want this legislation.
|
|
Electors |
Federal Voting Intention |
|
|
March
8-10, 2011 |
March
16/17, 2011 |
June
2011 |
July
2011 |
Aug
2011 |
Oct 25/26,
2011 |
ALP |
L-NP |
Greens |
Others |
Can’t
say |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Support legislation |
33 |
38 |
37 |
37 |
38 |
37 |
64 |
10 |
73 |
36 |
27 |
|
Oppose legislation |
57 |
54 |
53 |
58 |
56 |
57 |
27 |
86 |
22 |
57 |
46 |
|
Can’t say |
10 |
8 |
10 |
5 |
6 |
6 |
9 |
4 |
5 |
7 |
27 |
|
TOTAL |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
Question 3:
“Do you support or oppose Opposition Leader Tony Abbott's promise to overturn the Government's proposed Carbon Tax legislation if elected?”
This question related to Opposition Leader Tony Abbott’s promise to overturn the Gillard Government’s legislation if elected. Electors were fairly evenly split with 48% (unchanged) of electors opposing Tony Abbott’s promise to overturn the Gillard Government’s proposed Carbon Tax legislation if elected and 45% (unchanged) supporting Abbott’s promise to overturn the legislation.
However, a large majority of L-NP supporters (76%) support Abbott’s promise compared to only 18% of ALP supporters and 15% of Greens supporters. A clear majority of ALP supporters (76%) and Greens supporters (81%) do not want Abbott to rescind the ‘Carbon Tax’ if elected compared to only 16% of L-NP supporters.
|
|
Electors |
Federal Voting Intention |
|
|
March
8-10, 2011 |
March
16/17, 2011 |
June
2011 |
July
2011 |
Aug
2011 |
Oct 25/26,
2011 |
ALP |
L-NP |
Greens |
Others |
Can’t
say |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Support Abbott overturning tax |
44 |
44 |
45 |
48 |
45 |
45 |
18 |
76 |
15 |
36 |
31 |
|
Oppose Abbott overturning tax |
45 |
46 |
45 |
45 |
48 |
48 |
76 |
16 |
81 |
58 |
41 |
|
Can’t say |
11 |
10 |
10 |
7 |
7 |
7 |
6 |
8 |
4 |
6 |
28 |
|
TOTAL |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
|
|
Electors |
Support or Oppose Carbon Tax |
|
|
Oct 25/26,
2011 |
Support |
Oppose |
Can’t say |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Support Abbott overturning tax |
45 |
5 |
77 |
12 |
|
Oppose Abbott overturning tax |
48 |
93 |
16 |
38 |
|
Can’t say |
7 |
2 |
7 |
50 |
|
TOTAL |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
During the period:
- Sydney protesters vow to hold firm
“Occupy Sydney” protesters have vowed to stay put in Sydney's financial district as the remarkable Occupy Wall Street movement reaches 951 cities in 82 countries.
- Queen to wow Canberra on first full day of tour
A cruise on Lake Burley-Griffin and a visit to Floriade will be among the highlights for the Queen on the first full day of her Australian tour. The Queen then has visits to Brisbane and Melbourne, including a tram ride to the Governor’s residence, before heading to Perth for the 2011 Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM).
- Travel agents say it's time for Qantas intervention
Travel firm Flight Centre says the ongoing Qantas dispute is starting to hurt the industry and it is time for the Federal Government to intervene to prevent the rolling strikes causing more chaos in the travel industry.
- Ombudsman resigns after questions row
Commonwealth ombudsman Allan Asher has resigned after a row over scripted question he provided to Greens senator Sarah Hanson-Young concerning an increase in funding for his department.
- Muammar Gaddafi is dead
Libya's former dictator Muammar Gaddafi has been killed by fighters who overran his hometown of Sirte, Libya's new leaders have confirmed. Also killed in the confrontation was his son Mutassim.
- US President Barack Obama announces Iraq troop pullout
United States president Barack Obama has announced that all American troops will be out of Iraq by the end of the year.
- Black Caviar makes it 15 wins on the trot
Black Caviar has won its 15th consecutive start with an effortless win in the Schweppes Stakes.
- Southern Speed wins Caulfield Cup
Southern Speed has experienced a flood of late money to storm home and win the Caulfield Cup — often a great indicator for success on the biggest stage of all — the Melbourne Cup. Pre-race favourite December Draw pulled up sore and finished last in a disappointing result for trainer Mark Kavanagh.
FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)
| |
|
|
The |
Ind./ |
| |
ALP |
L-NP |
Greens |
Others |
|
RECENT ELECTION RESULTS |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Election March 2, 1996 |
38.8 |
47.3 (8.6) |
1.7 |
12.2 |
|
Election October 3^, 1998 |
40.1 |
39.5 (5.3) |
2.1 |
18.3 |
|
Election November 10, 2001 |
37.8 |
43 (5.6) |
4.4 |
13.8 |
|
Election October 9, 2004 |
37.6 |
46.4 (5.9) |
7.2 |
8.8 |
|
Election November 24, 2007 |
43.4 |
42.1 (5.9) |
7.8 |
6.7 |
| Election, August 21, 2010 |
38.0 |
43.6 (3.7) |
11.8 |
6.6 |
|
MORGAN POLL |
|
|
|
|
|
August 22/23, 2010 (SMS) |
40.5 |
44.5 |
10 |
5 |
|
August 25/26, 2010 (Phone) |
36 |
40 (3) |
13 |
11 |
|
August 28/29 & September 4/5, 2010 (Face) |
40.5 |
39.5 (4) |
15 |
5 |
|
September 15/16, 2010 (Phone) |
35.5 |
42.5 (3) |
15 |
7 |
|
September 18/19, 2010 (Face) |
40.5 |
41 (4.5) |
13 |
5.5 |
|
October 2/3, 2010 (Face) |
44 |
38.5 (3) |
12 |
5.5 |
|
October 9/10 & 16/17, 2010 (Face) |
43 |
40.5 (3) |
10.5 |
6 |
|
October 23/24 & 30/31, 2010 (Face) |
43 |
40.5 (4) |
10.5 |
6 |
|
November 6/7 & 13/14, 2010 (Face) |
41 |
40 (4) |
12 |
7 |
|
November 20/21 & 27/28, 2010 (Face) |
40.5 |
42 (3.5) |
12 |
5.5 |
|
December 4/5, 2010 (Face) |
40.5 |
40.5 (4.5) |
13.5 |
5.5 |
|
December 8-12, 2010 (Phone) |
31 |
46 (2) |
13.5 |
9.5 |
|
December 11/12, 2010 (Face) |
38 |
43 (5) |
13.5 |
5.5 |
|
January 8/9, 2011 (Face) |
38.5 |
44 (5.5) |
13 |
4.5 |
|
January 15/16 & 22/23, 2011 (Face) |
40.5 |
41.5 (4) |
11.5 |
6.5 |
|
February 1-3, 2011 (Phone) |
35 |
42.5 (1.5) |
12 |
10.5 |
|
January 29/30 & February 5/6, 2011 (Face) |
39 |
43 (5) |
12.5 |
5.5 |
|
February 12/13 & 19/20, 2011 (Face) |
39.5 |
43 (3) |
11.5 |
6 |
|
February 21-23, 2011 (Phone) |
36 |
45.5 (3.5) |
9.5 |
9 |
| |
|
|
|
|
| (February 24, 2011) - Prime Minister Julia Gillard reintroduces the prospect of a carbon tax |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
February 26/27, 2011 (Face) |
41 |
41 (4) |
11.5 |
6.5 |
|
March 5/6, 2011 (Face) |
37 |
46.5 (5) |
9.5 |
7 |
|
February 26/27 & March 5/6, 2011 (Face) (TOTAL) |
39 |
44 (4.5) |
10.5 |
6.5 |
|
March 8-10, 2011 (Phone) |
31.5 |
47.5 (1.5) |
10 |
11 |
|
March 12/13, 2011 (Face) |
38 |
44.5 (4.5) |
11.5 |
6 |
|
March 16/17, 2011 (Phone) |
35.5 |
42.5 (3) |
12 |
10 |
|
March 19/20, 2011 (Face) |
39.5 |
40 (3) |
12.5 |
8 |
|
March 22-24, 2011 (Phone) |
34.5 |
47 (2.5) |
10 |
8.5 |
|
March 26/27, 2011 (Face) |
35.5 |
47 (6) |
11.5 |
6 |
|
March 19/20 & 26/27, 2011 (Face) (TOTAL) |
37.5 |
43.5 (4.5) |
12 |
7 |
|
April 2/3, 2011 (Face) |
36.5 |
48 (6) |
9.5 |
6 |
|
April 9/10 & 16/17, 2011 (Face) |
35 |
46 (4.5) |
11.5 |
7.5 |
|
April 23/24 & 30/ May 1, 2011 (Face) |
37 |
46 (5.5) |
10.5 |
6.5 |
|
May 3/4, 2011 (Phone) |
34 |
46 (1.5) |
11 |
9 |
|
May 7/8, 2011 (Face) |
34 |
48 (3) |
11 |
7 |
|
May 14/15, 2011 (Face) |
36 |
44.5 (3) |
13 |
6.5 |
|
May 21/22 & 28/29, 2011 (Face) |
36 |
45.5 (4.5) |
12 |
6.5 |
|
May 31 - June 2, 2011 (Phone) |
30 |
50 (2) |
9.5 |
10.5 |
|
June 4/5, 2011 (Face) |
33.5 |
46.5 (3.5) |
12 |
8 |
|
June 11/12 & 18/19, 2011 (Face) |
35 |
46.5 (4.5) |
11.5 |
7 |
|
June 25/26 & July 1/2, 2011 (Face) |
31.5 |
49 (4.5) |
11.5 |
8 |
|
July 9/10, 2011 (Face) |
33.5 |
48 (4.5) |
11.5 |
7 |
|
July 13/14, 2011 (Phone) |
27.5 |
52.5 (2.5) |
10.5 |
9.5 |
|
July 16/17 & 23/24, 2011 (Face) |
34.5 |
47 (4.5) |
12 |
6.5 |
|
July 30/31 & August 6/7, 2011 (Face) |
34.5 |
47.5 (5.5) |
12 |
6 |
|
August 9/10, 2011 (Phone) |
29.5 |
49 (2) |
12 |
9.5 |
|
August 13/14 & 20/21, 2011 (Face) |
32.5 |
49.5 (4.5) |
11 |
7 |
|
August 27/28 & September 3/4, 2011 (Face) |
32.5 |
46.5 (3.5) |
12.5 |
8.5 |
|
September 10/11 & 17/18, 2011 (Face) |
32 |
48 (4) |
11 |
9 |
|
September 24/25 & October 1/2, 2011 (Face) |
35.5 |
46.5 (3) |
10 |
8 |
|
October 8/9, 2011 (Face) |
38.5 |
43.5 (3.5) |
11 |
7 |
|
October 15/16, 2011 (Face) |
36.5 |
44 (4.5) |
10 |
9.5 |
|
October 22/23, 2011 (Face) |
35 |
49.5 (3) |
10.5 |
5 |
|
October 25/26, 2011 (Phone) |
31 |
47 (1.5) |
12.5 |
9.5 |
Note: National Party results are in brackets. # Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.
^ 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.
* The Family First Party were included as an option on Federal Voting Intention from October 30, 2004.
**Family First were not reported in the SMS Morgan Poll of August 22/23, 2010.
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)
| |
ALP |
L-NP |
|
|
| |
% |
% |
|
|
|
Election, March 2, 1996 |
46.4 |
53.6 |
|
|
|
Election, October 3^, 1998 |
51 |
49 |
|
|
|
Election, November 10, 2001 |
49 |
51 |
|
|
|
Election, October 9, 2004 |
47.3 |
52.7 |
|
|
|
Election, November 24, 2007 |
52.7 |
47.3 |
|
|
|
Election, August 21, 2010 |
50.1 |
49.9 |
|
|
|
|
Preferences distributed
by how electors
say they will vote |
Preferences distributed
by how electors voted
at the 2010 election |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
| MORGAN POLL |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
|
August 22/23, 2010 (SMS) |
50.5 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
|
August 25/26, 2010 (Phone) |
51.5 |
48.5 |
51 |
49 |
|
August 28/29 & September 4/5, 2010 (Face) |
54.5 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
45.5 |
|
September 15/16, 2010 (Phone) |
52 |
48 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
|
September 18/19, 2010 (Face) |
54 |
46 |
53.5 |
46.5 |
|
October 2/3, 2010 (Face) |
56.5 |
43.5 |
55.5 |
44.5 |
|
October 9/10 & 16/17, 2010 (Face) |
55 |
45 |
54 |
46 |
|
October 23/24, 30/31, 2010 (Face) |
54 |
46 |
54 |
46 |
|
November 6/7 & 13/14, 2010 (Face) |
54.5 |
45.5 |
54 |
46 |
|
November 20/21 & 27/28, 2010 (Face) |
52.5 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
|
December 4/5, 2010 (Face) |
52.5 |
47.5 |
53 |
47 |
|
December 8-12, 2010 (Phone) |
46 |
54 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
|
December 11/12, 2010 (Face) |
48.5 |
51.5 |
50 |
50 |
|
January 8/9, 2011 (Face) |
50 |
50 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
|
January 15/16 & 22/23, 2011 (Face) |
52 |
48 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
|
February 1-3, 2011 (Phone) |
49.5 |
50.5 |
49 |
51 |
|
January 29/30 & February 5/6, 2011(Face) |
50 |
50 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
|
February 12/13 & 19/20, 2011 (Face) |
49.5 |
50.5 |
51 |
49 |
|
February 21-23, 2011 (Phone) |
48.5 |
51.5 |
47 |
53 |
| |
|
|
|
|
| (February 24, 2011) - Prime Minister Julia Gillard reintroduces the prospect of a carbon tax |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
February 26/27, 2011 (Face) |
51.5 |
48.5 |
53.5 |
46.5 |
|
March 5/6, 2011 (Face) |
46 |
54 |
48 |
52 |
|
February 26/27 & March 5/6, 2011 (Face) (TOTAL) |
48.5 |
51.5 |
50 |
50 |
|
March 8-10, 2011 (Phone) |
44.5 |
55.5 |
44 |
56 |
|
March 12/13, 2011 (Face) |
48.5 |
51.5 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
|
March 16/17, 2011 (Phone) |
49.5 |
50.5 |
49 |
51 |
|
March 19/20, 2011 (Face) |
52 |
48 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
|
March 22-24, 2011 (Phone) |
45.5 |
54.5 |
46 |
54 |
|
March 26/27, 2011 (Face) |
46.5 |
53.5 |
47 |
53 |
|
March 19/20 & 26/27, 2011 (Face) (TOTAL) |
49 |
51 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
|
April 2/3, 2011 (Face) |
44.5 |
55.5 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
|
April 9/10 & 16/17, 2011 (Face) |
45 |
55 |
47 |
53 |
|
April 23/24 & 30/ May 1, 2011 (Face) |
46.5 |
53.5 |
48 |
52 |
|
May 3/4, 2011 (Phone) |
46 |
54 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
|
May 7/8, 2011 (Face) |
45.5 |
54.5 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
|
May 14/15, 2011 (Face) |
46.5 |
53.5 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
|
May 21/22 & 28/29, 2011 (Face) |
46 |
54 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
|
May 31 - June 2, 2011 (Phone) |
41 |
59 |
42 |
58 |
|
June 4/5, 2011 (Face) |
43.5 |
56.5 |
46 |
54 |
|
June 11/12 & 18/19, 2011 (Face) |
45.5 |
54.5 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
|
June 25/26 & July 1/2, 2011 (Face) |
41.5 |
58.5 |
43.5 |
56.5 |
|
July 9/10, 2011 (Face) |
44 |
56 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
|
July 13/14, 2011 (Phone) |
39.5 |
60.5 |
40 |
60 |
|
July 16/17 & 23/24, 2011 (Face) |
43.5 |
56.5 |
47 |
53 |
|
July 30/31 & August 6/7, 2011 (Face) |
43.5 |
56.5 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
|
August 9/10, 2011 (Phone) |
43 |
57 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
|
August 13/14 & 20/21, 2011 (Face) |
41.5 |
58.5 |
44.5 |
55.5 |
|
August 27/28 & September 3/4, 2011 (Face) |
42 |
58 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
|
September 10/11 & 17/18, 2011 (Face) |
42 |
58 |
44.5 |
55.5 |
|
September 24/25 & October 1/2, 2011 (Face) |
43 |
57 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
|
October 8/9, 2011 (Face) |
47.5 |
52.5 |
50 |
50 |
|
October 15/16, 2011 (Face) |
46.5 |
53.5 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
|
October 22/23, 2011 (Face) |
43.5 |
56.5 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
|
October 25/26, 2011 (Phone) |
44.5 |
55.5 |
45 |
55 |
^ 1998 Federal Election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.
THINK WILL WIN
Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal Election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"
|
Think Will Win |
ALP |
L-NP |
Can't Say |
| |
% |
% |
% |
|
August 25/26, 2010 (Phone) |
33.5 |
42 |
24.5 |
|
August 28/29 & September 4/5, 2010 (Face) |
43 |
37.5 |
19.5 |
|
September 15/16, 2010 (Phone) |
34 |
42.5 |
23.5 |
|
September 18/19, 2010 (Face) |
38.5 |
43.5 |
18 |
|
October 2/3, 2010 (Face) |
41 |
40 |
19 |
|
October 9/10 & 16/17, 2010 (Face) |
43 |
41.5 |
15.5 |
|
October 23/24 & 30/31, 2010 (Face) |
41.5 |
42 |
16.5 |
|
November 6/7 & 13/14, 2010 (Face) |
42 |
41.5 |
16.5 |
|
November 20/21 & 27/28, 2010 (Face) |
39 |
45 |
16 |
|
December 4/5, 2010 (Face) |
30.5 |
52.5 |
17 |
|
December 8-12, 2010 (Phone) |
31.5 |
56.5 |
12 |
|
December 11/12, 2010 (Face) |
32.5 |
53 |
14.5 |
|
January 8/9, 2011 (Face) |
35.5 |
56 |
8.5 |
|
January 15/16 & 22/23, 2011 (Face) |
38.5 |
49 |
12.5 |
|
February 1-3, 2011 (Phone) |
37 |
48.5 |
14.5 |
|
January 29/30 & February 5/6, 2011 (Face) |
37.5 |
52 |
10.5 |
|
February 12/13 & 19/20, 2011 (Face) |
41.5 |
47.5 |
11 |
|
February 21-23, 2011 (Phone) |
35 |
52.5 |
12.5 |
| |
|
|
|
| (February 24, 2011) - Prime Minister Julia Gillard reintroduces the prospect of a carbon tax |
| |
|
|
|
|
February 26/27, 2011 (Face) |
41 |
46.5 |
12.5 |
|
March 5/6, 2011 (Face) |
34.5 |
53 |
12.5 |
|
February 26/27 & March 5/6, 2011 (Face) |
37.5 |
50 |
12.5 |
|
March 8-10, 2011 (Phone) |
28.5 |
58 |
13.5 |
|
March 12/13, 2011 (Face) |
37 |
54 |
9 |
|
March 16/17, 2011 (Phone) |
30.5 |
57 |
12.5 |
|
March 19/20, 2011 (Face) |
37 |
51.5 |
11.5 |
|
March 22-24, 2011 (Phone) |
37 |
52.5 |
10.5 |
|
March 26/27, 2011 (Face) |
32.5 |
57 |
10.5 |
|
March 19/20 & 26/27, 2011 (Face) (TOTAL) |
34.5 |
54.5 |
11 |
|
April 2/3, 2011 (Face) |
27.5 |
62.5 |
10 |
|
April 9/10 & 16/17, 2011 (Face) |
28.5 |
60.5 |
11 |
|
April 23/24 & 30/ May 1, 2011 (Face) |
27 |
62.5 |
10.5 |
|
May 3/4, 2011 (Phone) |
26 |
62.5 |
11.5 |
|
May 7/8, 2011 (Face) |
31.5 |
59 |
9.5 |
|
May 14/15, 2011 (Face) |
34.5 |
54 |
11.5 |
|
May 21/22 & 28/29, 2011 (Face) |
30 |
58.5 |
11.5 |
|
May 31 - June 2, 2011 (Phone) |
25.5 |
59.5 |
15 |
|
June 4/5, 2011 (Face) |
30 |
60.5 |
9.5 |
|
June 11/12 & 18/19, 2011 (Face) |
29 |
59.5 |
11.5 |
|
June 25/26 & July 1/2, 2011 (Face) |
25 |
64.5 |
10.5 |
|
July 9/10, 2011 (Face) |
28.5 |
63.5 |
8 |
|
July 13/14, 2011 (Phone) |
22 |
68 |
10 |
|
July 16/17 & 23/24, 2011 (Face) |
21.5 |
68 |
10.5 |
|
July 30/31 & August 6/7, 2011 (Face) |
27.5 |
63 |
9.5 |
|
August 9/10, 2011 (Phone) |
20 |
72 |
8 |
|
August 13/14 & 20/21, 2011 (Face) |
24.5 |
63.5 |
12 |
|
August 27/28 & September 3/4, 2011 (Face) |
22 |
68 |
10 |
|
September 10/11 & 17/18, 2011 (Face) |
23.5 |
72.5 |
4 |
|
September 24/25 & October 1/2, 2011 (Face) |
25.5 |
70 |
4.5 |
|
October 8/9, 2011 (Face) |
25.5 |
69 |
5.5 |
|
October 15/16, 2011 (Face) |
29 |
66.5 |
4.5 |
|
October 22/23, 2011 (Face) |
26.5 |
68.5 |
5 |
|
October 25/26, 2011 (Phone) |
19 |
70 |
11 |
AUSTRALIA HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION
Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”
| |
Interviewing Dates — ALP Government (Julia Gillard v Tony Abbott) |
| |
Sep
15/16 |
Sep
18/19 |
Oct
2/3 |
Oct 9/10
& 16/17 |
Oct 23/24
& 30/31 |
Nov 6/7
& 13/14 |
Nov 20/21
& 27/28 |
Dec
4/5 |
Dec
8-12 |
Dec
11/12 |
Jan
8/9 |
Jan 15/16
& 22/23 |
Feb
1-3 |
Jan 29/30 & Feb 5/6 |
Feb 12/13
& 19/20 |
Feb
21-23 |
| |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Right direction |
50 |
53.5 |
53.5 |
54 |
54 |
52 |
52.5 |
52 |
52.5 |
49 |
53 |
57 |
53.5 |
54 |
52 |
57 |
|
Wrong direction |
31 |
25.5 |
28 |
26.5 |
26 |
29 |
27.5 |
30.5 |
33.5 |
30.5 |
29.5 |
26.5 |
31 |
29 |
29.5 |
29.5 |
|
Roy Morgan GCR* |
119 |
128 |
125.5 |
127.5 |
128 |
123 |
125 |
121.5 |
119 |
118.5 |
123.5 |
130.5 |
122.5 |
125 |
122.5 |
127.5 |
|
Can’t say |
19 |
21 |
18.5 |
19.5 |
20 |
19 |
20 |
17.5 |
14 |
20.5 |
17.5 |
16.5 |
15.5 |
17 |
18.5 |
13.5 |
|
TOTAL |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
| |
Interviewing Dates — ALP Government (Julia Gillard v Tony Abbott) |
| |
Feb 26/27
& Mar 5/6 |
Mar
8-10 |
Mar
12/13 |
Mar
16/17 |
Mar
22-24 |
Mar 19/20
& 26/27 |
Apr
2/3 |
Apr 9/10
& 16/17 |
Apr 23/24
& 30/ May 1 |
May
3/4 |
May
7/8 |
May
14/15 |
May 21/22
& 28/29 |
May 31
- June 2 |
June
4/5 |
| |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Phone |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Right direction |
49 |
53.5 |
52.5 |
52.5 |
44.5 |
49 |
44.5 |
46 |
46.5 |
45 |
46.5 |
47 |
45 |
46.5 |
41.5 |
|
Wrong direction |
36 |
33.5 |
29.5 |
34.5 |
43.5 |
35.5 |
37 |
34 |
34.5 |
41 |
31.5 |
36.5 |
37.5 |
40 |
38.5 |
|
Roy Morgan GCR* |
113 |
120 |
123 |
118 |
101 |
113.5 |
107.5 |
112 |
112 |
104 |
115 |
110.5 |
107.5 |
106.5 |
103 |
|
Can’t say |
15 |
13 |
18 |
13 |
12 |
15.5 |
18.5 |
20 |
19 |
14 |
22 |
16.5 |
17.5 |
13.5 |
20 |
|
TOTAL |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
| |
Interviewing Dates — ALP Government (Julia Gillard v Tony Abbott) |
| |
June 11/12
& 18/19 |
June 25/26
& July 1/2 |
July
9/10 |
July
13/14 |
July 16/17
& 23/24 |
July 30/31
& Aug 6/7 |
Aug
9/10 |
Aug 13/14
& 20/21 |
Aug 27/28
& Sep 3/4 |
Sep 10/11
& 17/18 |
Sep 24/25
& Oct 1/2 |
Oct
8/9 |
Oct
15/16 |
Oct
22/23 |
Oct
25/26 |
| |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Right direction |
43 |
40 |
41 |
43.5 |
41.5 |
42.5 |
42 |
40.5 |
40 |
39 |
39.5 |
42 |
39.5 |
42.5 |
45 |
|
Wrong direction |
38 |
43.5 |
41 |
44 |
43.5 |
41 |
47.5 |
43.5 |
45.5 |
45.5 |
43.5 |
40.5 |
42.5 |
39.5 |
43 |
|
Roy Morgan GCR* |
105 |
96.5 |
100 |
99.5 |
98 |
101.5 |
94.5 |
97 |
94.5 |
93.5 |
96 |
101.5 |
97 |
103 |
102 |
|
Can’t say |
19 |
16.5 |
18 |
12.5 |
15 |
16.5 |
10.5 |
16 |
14.5 |
15.5 |
17 |
17.5 |
18 |
18 |
12 |
|
TOTAL |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
Phone: Telephone survey method; Face: Face-to-face survey method.
* Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (100 plus the difference between the percentage of people who say the country is “going in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “going in seriously the wrong direction”).
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
|
Sample Size |
Percentage Estimate |
| |
40%-60% |
25% or 75% |
10% or 90% |
5% or 95% |
|
500 |
±4.5 |
±3.9 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
| 1,000 |
±3.2 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
±1.4 |
|
1,500 |
±2.6 |
±2.2 |
±1.5 |
±1.1 |
|
2,000 |
±2.2 |
±1.9 |
±1.3 |
±1 |
The Morgan Poll was the most accurate of all polling companies at the 2007 Federal Election for both primary vote and two-party preferred predictions (sample 2,115 electors).
The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland Election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).
The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian Election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors). The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.
Note: The recent discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading.
The following included comment says it all: “I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%). Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll. On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s.”
View Federal Voting Intention Trend
The Roy Morgan Research Centre conducts the Morgan Poll in Australia and New Zealand and is the Gallup International Association Member
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.
|
