NATIONAL SET FOR NEW ZEALAND ELECTION VICTORY NEXT SATURDAY
| Finding No. 4723 -
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a NZ wide cross-section of 857 electors from November 7-18, 2011. Of all electors surveyed 8% (up 1%) didn’t name a party.:
November 19, 2011 |
The latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows Prime Minister John Key’s National Party set for a clear victory in next Saturday’s New Zealand election with National (53%, unchanged) increasing its lead over the Labour Party (24.5%, down 1.5%). Support for the Green Party (13%, up 1%) has continued to increase while New Zealand First (3%, down 1.5%), ACT NZ (1.5%, up 0.5%) and United Future (<0.5%, unchanged) will all struggle to win seats in the new Parliament.
The Maori Party (3%, up 1%) and the Mana Party (1%, unchanged) will contest the seven Maori seats with the Maori Party expected to do well again and likely to benefit from the collapse in the Labour vote since the 2008 New Zealand election while Other minor parties are supported by 1% (up 0.5%).
The latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is up 5.5 points to 136.5 — with 60.5% (up 2%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 24% (down 3.5%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction.’
Gary Morgan says:
“Prime Minister John Key is set to be re-elected next Saturday with National winning a majority of seats in Parliament for the first time since the 1993 New Zealand election. National support is steady at 53%, well ahead of Labour (24.5%, down 1.5% - and now at a New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll record low).
“The Greens (13%, up 1%) have clearly emerged as New Zealand’s third party and will increase their representation in Parliament above 10 seats for the first time. Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows the minor parties are facing an uphill battle to win seats in the new Parliament with New Zealand First (3%, down 1.5%) still in the best position to cross the crucial 5% threshold needed to gain a foothold in Parliament.
“The final NZ Roy Morgan Poll will be interviewing on Tuesday-Thursday nights after the leader’s debate on Monday night. The leader’s debate will be extremely important as it will determine whether the leaders are able to focus on the policies and electors’ main concerns like the economy and unemployment or whether they get distracted by the “teapot tape scandal” leading up to next Saturday’s election.”
Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a NZ wide cross-section of 857 electors from November 7-18, 2011. Of all electors surveyed 8% (up 1%) didn’t name a party.
VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY
The following table compares the latest NZ Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the November 8, 2008 General Election:
|
PRIMARY VOTE |
National |
Labour |
Green
Party |
ACT
NZ |
Maori
Party* |
United
Future |
NZ
First |
Mana
Party |
Other |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
General Election, July 27, 2002 |
20.9 |
41.3 |
7 |
7.1 |
n/a |
6.7 |
10.4 |
n/a |
6.6 |
|
General Election, September 17, 2005 |
39.1 |
41.1 |
5.3 |
1.51 |
2.12 |
2.67 |
5.72 |
n/a |
2.48 |
|
General Election, November 8, 2008 |
44.93 |
33.99 |
6.72 |
3.65 |
2.39 |
0.87 |
4.07 |
n/a |
3.38 |
|
MORGAN POLL |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
November 17-30, 2008 |
44 |
32.5 |
9.5 |
4 |
3.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
n/a |
2 |
|
December 1-14, 2008 |
47 |
31.5 |
9.5 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
n/a |
2 |
|
January 2-18, 2009 |
48 |
33 |
8 |
3 |
3.5 |
1 |
2.5 |
n/a |
1 |
|
January 19 - February 1, 2009 |
48 |
31 |
9 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
1 |
3 |
n/a |
1 |
|
February 2-15, 2009 |
48.5 |
32 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
n/a |
3 |
|
February 16 - March 1, 2009 |
56 |
26 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
n/a |
1.5 |
|
March 2-15, 2009 |
54.5 |
29 |
8 |
2.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
2 |
n/a |
1.5 |
|
March 23 - April 5, 2009 |
50.5 |
28 |
9.5 |
4 |
3.5 |
1 |
2.5 |
n/a |
1 |
|
April 6-19, 2009 |
50 |
32.5 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
2 |
n/a |
0.5 |
|
April 20 - May 3, 2009 |
55 |
30.5 |
7 |
2 |
2 |
^ |
2 |
n/a |
1.5 |
|
May 4-17, 2009 |
52 |
31.5 |
9.5 |
2 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
n/a |
1 |
|
May 18-31, 2009 |
52 |
31 |
8.5 |
2 |
3 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
n/a |
1.5 |
|
June 1-14, 2009 |
52 |
33 |
7.5 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
n/a |
1 |
|
June 22 - July 5, 2009 |
54 |
31.5 |
8 |
1 |
3 |
0.5 |
1 |
n/a |
1 |
|
July 6-19, 2009 |
52 |
30 |
10 |
1 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
2 |
n/a |
1 |
|
July 20 - August 2, 2009 |
53.5 |
34 |
7 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
n/a |
^ |
|
August 3-16, 2009 |
53.5 |
32.5 |
8.5 |
1 |
2 |
0.5 |
2 |
n/a |
^ |
|
August 17-30, 2009 |
56.5 |
29.5 |
8 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
n/a |
1 |
|
August 31 - September 13, 2009 |
51.5 |
33.5 |
7.5 |
2 |
2.5 |
^ |
2.5 |
n/a |
0.5 |
|
September 21 - October 4, 2009 |
57.5 |
28 |
6.5 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
2 |
n/a |
1 |
|
October 5-18, 2009 |
53 |
30 |
7.5 |
2.5 |
3 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
n/a |
1 |
|
October 19 - November 1, 2009 |
55.5 |
29 |
7.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
n/a |
1.5 |
|
November 2-15, 2009 |
51.5 |
33 |
6.5 |
2.5 |
2 |
1 |
2.5 |
n/a |
1 |
|
November 16-29, 2009 |
53.5 |
30.5 |
7 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
^ |
2.5 |
n/a |
1.5 |
|
November 30 - December 13, 2009 |
54 |
27.5 |
9.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
4 |
n/a |
1.5 |
|
January 4-17, 2010 |
53 |
30 |
8 |
2 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
n/a |
1.5 |
|
January 18-31, 2010 |
52 |
32 |
6 |
2 |
3 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
n/a |
1 |
|
February 1-14, 2010 |
52 |
33 |
8 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
2 |
n/a |
0.5 |
|
February 15-28, 2010 |
53.5 |
31.5 |
8 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
^ |
2 |
n/a |
1 |
|
March 1-14, 2010 |
51.5 |
33.5 |
6.5 |
2.5 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
n/a |
1 |
|
March 22 - April 4, 2010 |
49 |
33 |
7.5 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
n/a |
1.5 |
|
April 5-18, 2010 |
49.5 |
34 |
7.5 |
1 |
4 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
n/a |
1 |
|
April 19 - May 2, 2010 |
49 |
33.5 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
3 |
n/a |
1.5 |
|
May 3-16, 2010 |
48.5 |
33.5 |
9 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
3 |
n/a |
0.5 |
|
May 17-30, 2010 |
52.5 |
30 |
9.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
n/a |
0.5 |
|
May 31 - June 13, 2010 |
50.5 |
33 |
9.5 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
1.5 |
n/a |
0.5 |
|
June 21 - July 4, 2010 |
53 |
29 |
8.5 |
2 |
3 |
0.5 |
3 |
n/a |
1 |
|
July 5-18, 2010 |
49 |
31.5 |
9 |
2 |
3 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
n/a |
0.5 |
|
July 19 - August 1, 2010 |
51 |
33.5 |
6.5 |
2 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
2 |
n/a |
1 |
|
August 2-15, 2010 |
50 |
33.5 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
3 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
n/a |
0.5 |
|
August 16-29, 2010 |
49.5 |
32.5 |
8.5 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
3.5 |
n/a |
1 |
|
August 30 - September 12, 2010 |
48.5 |
34 |
8 |
2 |
1.5 |
1 |
4.5 |
n/a |
0.5 |
|
September 20 - October 3, 2010 |
49.5 |
36.5 |
8 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
^ |
2.5 |
n/a |
0.5 |
|
October 4-17, 2010 |
52.5 |
33 |
8.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
n/a |
1 |
|
October 18-31, 2010 |
50.5 |
33 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
3 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
n/a |
0.5 |
|
November 1-14, 2010 |
50 |
32.5 |
9 |
1 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
3 |
n/a |
1.5 |
|
November 15-28, 2010 |
51 |
33 |
7 |
1 |
3 |
0.5 |
3 |
n/a |
1.5 |
|
November 29 - December 12, 2010 |
48.5 |
35 |
7 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
3 |
n/a |
1.5 |
|
January 4-16, 2011 |
55 |
29 |
7 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
n/a |
^ |
|
January 17-30, 2011 |
49 |
34.5 |
6.5 |
1 |
3 |
^ |
5.5 |
n/a |
0.5 |
|
January 31 - February 13, 2011 |
52.5 |
33 |
8.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
n/a |
1 |
|
February 14-27, 2011 |
49 |
35 |
8 |
1.5 |
3 |
^ |
3 |
n/a |
0.5 |
|
February 28 - March 13, 2011 |
52.5 |
32.5 |
8 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
^ |
4 |
n/a |
1 |
|
March 21 - April 3, 2011 |
51 |
31.5 |
8 |
2 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
5 |
n/a |
0.5 |
|
April 4-17, 2011 |
51 |
32 |
8 |
1 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
3 |
n/a |
1 |
|
April 18 - May 1, 2011 |
52.5 |
31 |
7.5 |
1 |
2 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
n/a |
1 |
|
May 2-15, 2011 |
53 |
28 |
10 |
2 |
2 |
0.5 |
3 |
n/a |
1.5 |
|
May 16-29, 2011 |
49 |
36 |
6.5 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
n/a |
1.5 |
|
May 30 - June 12, 2011 |
53 |
30 |
7 |
3 |
3 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
n/a |
1 |
|
June 13-26, 2011 |
54 |
30.5 |
5.5 |
2.5 |
3 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
n/a |
0.5 |
|
June 27 - July 10, 2011 |
49 |
33.5 |
7.5 |
3 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
3 |
n/a |
1 |
|
July 11-24, 2011 |
52 |
31.5 |
7.5 |
2 |
3 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
July 25 - August 7, 2011 |
51.5 |
32 |
7 |
2 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
4 |
0.5 |
1 |
|
August 15-28, 2011 |
52 |
29.5 |
9 |
2 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
1 |
1 |
|
August 29 - September 11, 2011 |
57 |
26 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
September 12-25, 2011 |
51 |
30.5 |
11.5 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
1 |
|
September 26 - October 9, 2011 |
55.5 |
28 |
9.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
October 10-23, 2011 |
53.5 |
29.5 |
9.5 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
October 24-November 6, 2011 |
53 |
26 |
12 |
1 |
2 |
^ |
4.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
November 7-18, 2011 |
53 |
24.5 |
13 |
1.5 |
3 |
^ |
3 |
1 |
1 |
*The Maori Party was launched in July 2004; ^ Result less than 0.5%.
NEW ZEALAND: HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION?
Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in New Zealand are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”
|
|
New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (Government of John Key): Interviewing Dates |
|
|
July 19-Aug 1,
2010 |
Aug 2-15,
2010 |
Aug 16-29,
2010 |
Aug 30-Sep 12,
2010 |
Sep 20-Oct 3,
2010 |
Oct 4-17,
2010 |
Oct 18-31,
2010 |
Nov 1-14,
2010 |
Nov 15-28,
2010 |
Nov 29-Dec 12,
2010 |
Jan 4-16,
2011 |
Jan 17-30,
2011 |
Jan 31-Feb 13,
2011 |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Right direction |
57.5 |
58.5 |
55 |
58 |
61.5 |
60.5 |
55 |
63.5 |
59 |
58.5 |
59.5 |
57 |
60 |
|
Wrong direction |
28 |
27.5 |
28 |
28 |
22 |
24 |
30 |
24 |
27 |
27 |
27 |
27.5 |
24.5 |
|
Roy Morgan GCR# |
129.5 |
131 |
127 |
130 |
139.5 |
136.5 |
125 |
139.5 |
132 |
131.5 |
132.5 |
129.5 |
135.5 |
|
Can’t say |
14.5 |
14 |
17 |
14 |
16.5 |
15.5 |
15 |
12.5 |
14 |
14.5 |
13.5 |
15.5 |
15.5 |
|
TOTAL |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
# Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).
|
|
New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (Government of John Key): Interviewing Dates |
|
|
Feb 14-27,
2011 |
Feb 28-Mar 13,
2011 |
Mar 21-Apr 3,
2011 |
Apr 4-17,
2011 |
Apr 18-May 1,
2011 |
May 2-15,
2011 |
May 16-29,
2011 |
May 30-June 12,
2011 |
June 13-26,
2011 |
June 27-July 10,
2011 |
July 11-24,
2011 |
July 25-Aug 7,
2011 |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Right direction |
49.5 |
59.5 |
54.5 |
53.5 |
53.5 |
56.5 |
55 |
55.5 |
53.5 |
56 |
56.5 |
57 |
|
Wrong direction |
35 |
26 |
29.5 |
32.5 |
34.5 |
30 |
28 |
29.5 |
31.5 |
29.5 |
29 |
29 |
|
Roy Morgan GCR# |
114.5 |
133.5 |
125 |
121 |
119 |
126.5 |
127 |
126 |
122 |
126.5 |
127.5 |
128 |
|
Can’t say |
15.5 |
14.5 |
16 |
14 |
12 |
13.5 |
17 |
15 |
15 |
14.5 |
14.5 |
14 |
|
TOTAL |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
# Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).
|
|
New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (Government of John Key): Interviewing Dates |
|
|
Aug 15-28,
2011 |
Aug 29-Sep11,
2011 |
Sep 12-25,
2011 |
Sep 26-Oct 9,
2011 |
Oct 10-23,
2011 |
Oct 24-Nov 6,
2011 |
Nov 7-18,
2011 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Right direction |
59 |
60 |
61.5 |
62 |
61 |
58.5 |
60.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Wrong direction |
27.5 |
28 |
24.5 |
24.5 |
24.5 |
27.5 |
24 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Roy Morgan GCR# |
131.5 |
132 |
137 |
137.5 |
136.5 |
131 |
136.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Can’t say |
13.5 |
12 |
14 |
13.5 |
14.5 |
14 |
15.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
TOTAL |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
|
|
|
|
|
# Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).
For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094
Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.
|
Sample Size |
Percentage Estimate |
| |
40%-60% |
25% or 75% |
10% or 90% |
5% or 95% |
|
500 |
±4.5 |
±3.9 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
|
1,000 |
±3.2 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
±1.4 |
Finding No. 4723 is taken from Computer Report No. 2344
The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.
Finding No. 4723 is taken from Computer Report No. 2344
|
