NATIONAL SET FOR ELECTION VICTORY, BUT NO MAJORITY
AS ‘TEAPOT TAPE’ SCANDAL DENTS NATIONAL & BENEFITS NZ FIRST
| Finding No. 4724 -
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a NZ wide cross-section of 959 electors from November 22-24, 2011. Of all electors surveyed 4% (down 4%) didn’t name a party.:
November 24, 2011 |
Today’s Special Election Eve New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows Prime Minister John Key’s National Party set to be re-elected tomorrow, but falling short of gaining a majority in its own right. National has 49.5% (down 3.5%) of the party vote well ahead of second party Labour (23.5%, down 1%) and a surging Greens (14.5%, up 1.5%).
Support for New Zealand First (6.5%, up 3.5%) has increased after Leader Winston Peters gained public attention when he revealed parts of the ‘Teapot Tape’ Scandal to the public, and his action may result in his party’s surprise return to Parliament after failing to win a seat at the 2008 New Zealand election.
Support for the other minor parties shows ACT NZ 1.5% (unchanged) and United Future 0.5% (up 0.5%) unlikely to retain their seats in Parliament while the Maori Party 1% (down 2%) and Mana Party 0.5% (down 0.5%) will closely contest the seven Maori seats.
The latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is down 18 points to 118.5 — with 49.5% (down 11%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 31% (up 7%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction.’
Gary Morgan says:
“Prime Minister John Key is set to be re-elected tomorrow to a second-term in Government, however Key may fall agonisingly short of being able to govern in his own right as the ‘Teapot Tape’ Scandal looks set to cost Key’s National an outright majority in Parliament — and return outspoken New Zealand First Leader Winston Peters to Parliament after his party failed to win a seat the 2008 New Zealand Election.
“National (49.5%, down 3.5%) has lost support in the wake of the ‘Teapot Tape’ Scandal — and also Key’s underwhelming performance in Monday night’s Leaders Debate — The Roy Morgan Reactor of uncommitted voters scored the debate 54% Opposition Leader Phil Goff cf. 46% John Key. Despite Goff’s victory on Monday, Labour has not benefited (23.5%, down 1%) and looks set for a record low vote.
“The Greens (14.5%, up 1.5%) will emerge as clearly New Zealand’s third party and look set win between 10-15 seats — the first time they will have more than 9 seats. However, it is the re-emergence of New Zealand First (6.5%, up 3.5%) that is set to be the big story tomorrow as Peters may lead his party into the balance of power on the back of his revelations concerning the ‘Teapot Tape’ Scandal and as many as 7 seats in the new Parliament.
“When considering today’s results it must be remembered that at the 2008 New Zealand election the final NZ Roy Morgan Poll overestimated the Greens vote by 3.3% and underestimated the Maori Party by 1.4%. These figures may be repeated tomorrow as the Greens traditionally fail to man all the polling booths on election day which lowers their final vote — however the late increase in the Greens vote comes after the decisive stand taken by the Green Party against election billboard ‘vandal’ Jolyon White and his wife, Anne Heins, who was stood down from her role as co-Leader Russel Norman’s secretary.”
Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a NZ wide cross-section of 959 electors from November 22-24, 2011. Of all electors surveyed 4% (down 4%) didn’t name a party.
VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY
The following table compares the latest NZ Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the November 8, 2008 General Election:
|
PRIMARY VOTE |
National |
Labour |
Green
Party |
ACT
NZ |
Maori
Party* |
United
Future |
NZ
First |
Mana
Party |
Other |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
General Election, July 27, 2002 |
20.9 |
41.3 |
7 |
7.1 |
n/a |
6.7 |
10.4 |
n/a |
6.6 |
|
General Election, September 17, 2005 |
39.1 |
41.1 |
5.3 |
1.51 |
2.12 |
2.67 |
5.72 |
n/a |
2.48 |
|
General Election, November 8, 2008 |
44.93 |
33.99 |
6.72 |
3.65 |
2.39 |
0.87 |
4.07 |
n/a |
3.38 |
|
MORGAN POLL |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
November 17-30, 2008 |
44 |
32.5 |
9.5 |
4 |
3.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
n/a |
2 |
|
December 1-14, 2008 |
47 |
31.5 |
9.5 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
n/a |
2 |
|
January 2-18, 2009 |
48 |
33 |
8 |
3 |
3.5 |
1 |
2.5 |
n/a |
1 |
|
January 19 - February 1, 2009 |
48 |
31 |
9 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
1 |
3 |
n/a |
1 |
|
February 2-15, 2009 |
48.5 |
32 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
n/a |
3 |
|
February 16 - March 1, 2009 |
56 |
26 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
n/a |
1.5 |
|
March 2-15, 2009 |
54.5 |
29 |
8 |
2.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
2 |
n/a |
1.5 |
|
March 23 - April 5, 2009 |
50.5 |
28 |
9.5 |
4 |
3.5 |
1 |
2.5 |
n/a |
1 |
|
April 6-19, 2009 |
50 |
32.5 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
2 |
n/a |
0.5 |
|
April 20 - May 3, 2009 |
55 |
30.5 |
7 |
2 |
2 |
^ |
2 |
n/a |
1.5 |
|
May 4-17, 2009 |
52 |
31.5 |
9.5 |
2 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
n/a |
1 |
|
May 18-31, 2009 |
52 |
31 |
8.5 |
2 |
3 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
n/a |
1.5 |
|
June 1-14, 2009 |
52 |
33 |
7.5 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
n/a |
1 |
|
June 22 - July 5, 2009 |
54 |
31.5 |
8 |
1 |
3 |
0.5 |
1 |
n/a |
1 |
|
July 6-19, 2009 |
52 |
30 |
10 |
1 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
2 |
n/a |
1 |
|
July 20 - August 2, 2009 |
53.5 |
34 |
7 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
n/a |
^ |
|
August 3-16, 2009 |
53.5 |
32.5 |
8.5 |
1 |
2 |
0.5 |
2 |
n/a |
^ |
|
August 17-30, 2009 |
56.5 |
29.5 |
8 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
n/a |
1 |
|
August 31 - September 13, 2009 |
51.5 |
33.5 |
7.5 |
2 |
2.5 |
^ |
2.5 |
n/a |
0.5 |
|
September 21 - October 4, 2009 |
57.5 |
28 |
6.5 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
2 |
n/a |
1 |
|
October 5-18, 2009 |
53 |
30 |
7.5 |
2.5 |
3 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
n/a |
1 |
|
October 19 - November 1, 2009 |
55.5 |
29 |
7.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
n/a |
1.5 |
|
November 2-15, 2009 |
51.5 |
33 |
6.5 |
2.5 |
2 |
1 |
2.5 |
n/a |
1 |
|
November 16-29, 2009 |
53.5 |
30.5 |
7 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
^ |
2.5 |
n/a |
1.5 |
|
November 30 - December 13, 2009 |
54 |
27.5 |
9.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
4 |
n/a |
1.5 |
|
January 4-17, 2010 |
53 |
30 |
8 |
2 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
n/a |
1.5 |
|
January 18-31, 2010 |
52 |
32 |
6 |
2 |
3 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
n/a |
1 |
|
February 1-14, 2010 |
52 |
33 |
8 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
2 |
n/a |
0.5 |
|
February 15-28, 2010 |
53.5 |
31.5 |
8 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
^ |
2 |
n/a |
1 |
|
March 1-14, 2010 |
51.5 |
33.5 |
6.5 |
2.5 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
n/a |
1 |
|
March 22 - April 4, 2010 |
49 |
33 |
7.5 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
n/a |
1.5 |
|
April 5-18, 2010 |
49.5 |
34 |
7.5 |
1 |
4 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
n/a |
1 |
|
April 19 - May 2, 2010 |
49 |
33.5 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
3 |
n/a |
1.5 |
|
May 3-16, 2010 |
48.5 |
33.5 |
9 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
3 |
n/a |
0.5 |
|
May 17-30, 2010 |
52.5 |
30 |
9.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
n/a |
0.5 |
|
May 31 - June 13, 2010 |
50.5 |
33 |
9.5 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
1.5 |
n/a |
0.5 |
|
June 21 - July 4, 2010 |
53 |
29 |
8.5 |
2 |
3 |
0.5 |
3 |
n/a |
1 |
|
July 5-18, 2010 |
49 |
31.5 |
9 |
2 |
3 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
n/a |
0.5 |
|
July 19 - August 1, 2010 |
51 |
33.5 |
6.5 |
2 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
2 |
n/a |
1 |
|
August 2-15, 2010 |
50 |
33.5 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
3 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
n/a |
0.5 |
|
August 16-29, 2010 |
49.5 |
32.5 |
8.5 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
3.5 |
n/a |
1 |
|
August 30 - September 12, 2010 |
48.5 |
34 |
8 |
2 |
1.5 |
1 |
4.5 |
n/a |
0.5 |
|
September 20 - October 3, 2010 |
49.5 |
36.5 |
8 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
^ |
2.5 |
n/a |
0.5 |
|
October 4-17, 2010 |
52.5 |
33 |
8.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
n/a |
1 |
|
October 18-31, 2010 |
50.5 |
33 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
3 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
n/a |
0.5 |
|
November 1-14, 2010 |
50 |
32.5 |
9 |
1 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
3 |
n/a |
1.5 |
|
November 15-28, 2010 |
51 |
33 |
7 |
1 |
3 |
0.5 |
3 |
n/a |
1.5 |
|
November 29 - December 12, 2010 |
48.5 |
35 |
7 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
3 |
n/a |
1.5 |
|
January 4-16, 2011 |
55 |
29 |
7 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
n/a |
^ |
|
January 17-30, 2011 |
49 |
34.5 |
6.5 |
1 |
3 |
^ |
5.5 |
n/a |
0.5 |
|
January 31 - February 13, 2011 |
52.5 |
33 |
8.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
n/a |
1 |
|
February 14-27, 2011 |
49 |
35 |
8 |
1.5 |
3 |
^ |
3 |
n/a |
0.5 |
|
February 28 - March 13, 2011 |
52.5 |
32.5 |
8 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
^ |
4 |
n/a |
1 |
|
March 21 - April 3, 2011 |
51 |
31.5 |
8 |
2 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
5 |
n/a |
0.5 |
|
April 4-17, 2011 |
51 |
32 |
8 |
1 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
3 |
n/a |
1 |
|
April 18 - May 1, 2011 |
52.5 |
31 |
7.5 |
1 |
2 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
n/a |
1 |
|
May 2-15, 2011 |
53 |
28 |
10 |
2 |
2 |
0.5 |
3 |
n/a |
1.5 |
|
May 16-29, 2011 |
49 |
36 |
6.5 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
n/a |
1.5 |
|
May 30 - June 12, 2011 |
53 |
30 |
7 |
3 |
3 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
n/a |
1 |
|
June 13-26, 2011 |
54 |
30.5 |
5.5 |
2.5 |
3 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
n/a |
0.5 |
|
June 27 - July 10, 2011 |
49 |
33.5 |
7.5 |
3 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
3 |
n/a |
1 |
|
July 11-24, 2011 |
52 |
31.5 |
7.5 |
2 |
3 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
July 25 - August 7, 2011 |
51.5 |
32 |
7 |
2 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
4 |
0.5 |
1 |
|
August 15-28, 2011 |
52 |
29.5 |
9 |
2 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
1 |
1 |
|
August 29 - September 11, 2011 |
57 |
26 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
September 12-25, 2011 |
51 |
30.5 |
11.5 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
1 |
|
September 26 - October 9, 2011 |
55.5 |
28 |
9.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
October 10-23, 2011 |
53.5 |
29.5 |
9.5 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
October 24-November 6, 2011 |
53 |
26 |
12 |
1 |
2 |
^ |
4.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
November 7-18, 2011 |
53 |
24.5 |
13 |
1.5 |
3 |
^ |
3 |
1 |
1 |
|
November 22-24, 2011 |
49.5 |
23.5 |
14.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
6.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
*The Maori Party was launched in July 2004; ^ Result less than 0.5%.
NEW ZEALAND: HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION?
Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in New Zealand are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”
|
|
New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (Government of John Key): Interviewing Dates |
|
|
July 19-Aug 1,
2010 |
Aug 2-15,
2010 |
Aug 16-29,
2010 |
Aug 30-Sep 12,
2010 |
Sep 20-Oct 3,
2010 |
Oct 4-17,
2010 |
Oct 18-31,
2010 |
Nov 1-14,
2010 |
Nov 15-28,
2010 |
Nov 29-Dec 12,
2010 |
Jan 4-16,
2011 |
Jan 17-30,
2011 |
Jan 31-Feb 13,
2011 |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Right direction |
57.5 |
58.5 |
55 |
58 |
61.5 |
60.5 |
55 |
63.5 |
59 |
58.5 |
59.5 |
57 |
60 |
|
Wrong direction |
28 |
27.5 |
28 |
28 |
22 |
24 |
30 |
24 |
27 |
27 |
27 |
27.5 |
24.5 |
|
Roy Morgan GCR# |
129.5 |
131 |
127 |
130 |
139.5 |
136.5 |
125 |
139.5 |
132 |
131.5 |
132.5 |
129.5 |
135.5 |
|
Can’t say |
14.5 |
14 |
17 |
14 |
16.5 |
15.5 |
15 |
12.5 |
14 |
14.5 |
13.5 |
15.5 |
15.5 |
|
TOTAL |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
# Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).
|
|
New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (Government of John Key): Interviewing Dates |
|
|
Feb 14-27,
2011 |
Feb 28-Mar 13,
2011 |
Mar 21-Apr 3,
2011 |
Apr 4-17,
2011 |
Apr 18-May 1,
2011 |
May 2-15,
2011 |
May 16-29,
2011 |
May 30-June 12,
2011 |
June 13-26,
2011 |
June 27-July 10,
2011 |
July 11-24,
2011 |
July 25-Aug 7,
2011 |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Right direction |
49.5 |
59.5 |
54.5 |
53.5 |
53.5 |
56.5 |
55 |
55.5 |
53.5 |
56 |
56.5 |
57 |
|
Wrong direction |
35 |
26 |
29.5 |
32.5 |
34.5 |
30 |
28 |
29.5 |
31.5 |
29.5 |
29 |
29 |
|
Roy Morgan GCR# |
114.5 |
133.5 |
125 |
121 |
119 |
126.5 |
127 |
126 |
122 |
126.5 |
127.5 |
128 |
|
Can’t say |
15.5 |
14.5 |
16 |
14 |
12 |
13.5 |
17 |
15 |
15 |
14.5 |
14.5 |
14 |
|
TOTAL |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
# Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).
|
|
New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (Government of John Key): Interviewing Dates |
|
|
Aug 15-28,
2011 |
Aug 29-Sep11,
2011 |
Sep 12-25,
2011 |
Sep 26-Oct 9,
2011 |
Oct 10-23,
2011 |
Oct 24-Nov 6,
2011 |
Nov 7-18,
2011 |
Nov 22-24,
2011 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
|
|
|
Right direction |
59 |
60 |
61.5 |
62 |
61 |
58.5 |
60.5 |
49.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
Wrong direction |
27.5 |
28 |
24.5 |
24.5 |
24.5 |
27.5 |
24 |
31 |
|
|
|
|
|
Roy Morgan GCR# |
131.5 |
132 |
137 |
137.5 |
136.5 |
131 |
136.5 |
118.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
Can’t say |
13.5 |
12 |
14 |
13.5 |
14.5 |
14 |
15.5 |
19.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
TOTAL |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
|
|
|
|
# Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).
For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094
Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.
|
Sample Size |
Percentage Estimate |
| |
40%-60% |
25% or 75% |
10% or 90% |
5% or 95% |
|
500 |
±4.5 |
±3.9 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
|
1,000 |
±3.2 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
±1.4 |
Finding No. 4724 is taken from Computer Report No. 2345
The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.
|
