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Prime Minister Julia Gillard has lost ground as preferred Prime Minister (45%, down 7% since March 2011) over Opposition Leader Tony Abbott (41%, up 6%) according to a special telephone Morgan Poll conducted over two nights this week (January 17/18, 2012).

When compared to other prominent Liberal Party potential leaders, former Liberal Party Leader Malcolm Turnbull (53%, up 10% since March 16/17, 2011) is preferred to Prime Minister Gillard (35%, down 9%); Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey (49%) is also preferred to Gillard (41%); however Gillard (48%) is clearly preferred to Shadow Finance Minister Andrew Robb (29%).

Job Performance — Approve/Disapprove

A majority of electors disapprove of Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s handling of her job (54%, up 7%) while only 34% (down 6%) approve.

Opposition Leader Tony Abbott also fares poorly with 56% (up 2%) disapproving of his handling of the job as Opposition Leader compared to only 36% (down 1%) that approve.

Gary Morgan says:

“This special telephone Morgan Poll shows a large fall in support for Prime Minister Julia Gillard (45, down 7%) as ‘Better Prime Minister’ substantially cutting into her lead over Opposition Leader Tony Abbott (41%, up 6%) since March 2011.

“When compared to alternative Liberal Leaders Malcolm Turnbull & Joe Hockey, Gillard fares even worse with Turnbull (53%, up 10% since March 2011) now well ahead of Gillard (35%, down 9%) as ‘Better Prime Minister’ while Hockey (49%) cf. Gillard (41%) also has a clear lead. However, Gillard is clearly preferred to Shadow Finance Minister Andrew Robb — Gillard (48%) cf. Robb (29%).

“Most worryingly for Gillard is that a record high 54% (up 7% since March 2011) of electors disapprove of Gillard’s handling of the job as Prime Minister compared to only 34% (down 6%) that approve — also a record low since she became Prime Minister. However, Opposition Leader Tony Abbott is not doing any better with electors as 56% (up 2%) disapprove of Abbott’s handling of the job as Opposition Leader compared to only 36% (down 1%) that approve.

“Clearly the results of today’s special telephone Morgan Poll show that Australian electors aren’t impressed by either leader, and that alternative leaders are held in a higher regard. Another Morgan Poll released today shows that former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd (33%, up 2%) is clearly preferred as ALP Leader to Gillard (19%, down 5%) while former Liberal Party Leader Malcolm Turnbull (37%, down 1%) is also significantly preferred to Abbott (22%, down 2%).”

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over the two nights of January 17/18, 2012, with an Australia-wide cross section of 540 electors.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4

Julia Gillard vs. Tony Abbott — By Gender

Better Prime Minister: Gillard vs. Abbott

Electors were asked: “Thinking of Ms. Julia Gillard and Mr. Tony Abbott. In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister — Ms. Gillard or Mr. Abbott?”

Approval of Leaders — Julia Gillard vs. Tony Abbott

	Electors 18+				Men			Women
	Mar 8-10, 2011	Mar 16/17, 2011	Jan 17/18, 2012		Mar 8-10, 2011	Mar 16/17, 2011	Jan 17/18, 2012	Mar 8-10, 2011	Mar 16/17, 2011	Jan 17/18, 2012
	%	%	%		%	%	%	%	%	%
Gillard	48	52	45		42	49	42	54	55	48
Abbott	39	35	41		49	39	44	30	31	38
Gillard lead	9	17	4		(7)	10	(2)	24	24	10
Other / Neither	13	13	14		9	12	14	16	14	14
TOTAL	100	100	100		100	100	100	100	100	100

Prime Minister: Julia Gillard

Electors were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Ms. Gillard is handling her job as Prime Minister?”

	Electors 18+			Men			Women
	Mar 8-10, 2011	Mar 16/17, 2011	Jan 17/18, 2012	Mar 8-10, 2011	Mar 16/17, 2011	Jan 17/18, 2012	Mar 8-10, 2011	Mar 16/17, 2011	Jan 17/18, 2012
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	38	40	34	33	36	32	42	42	36
Disapprove	51	47	54	59	53	59	45	42	50
Approve — Disapprove	(13)	(7)	(20)	(26)	(17)	(27)	(3)	-	(14)
Can’t say	11	13	12	8	11	9	13	16	14
TOTAL	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Analysis by Sex (Approve/ Disapprove — Julia Gillard)

Opposition Leader: Tony Abbott

Electors were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Abbott is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition?”

Analysis by Sex (Approve/ Disapprove — Tony Abbott)

	Electors 18+			Men			Women
	Mar 8-10, 2011	Mar 16/17, 2011	Jan 17/18, 2012	Mar 8-10, 2011	Mar 16/17, 2011	Jan 17/18, 2012	Mar 8-10, 2011	Mar 16/17, 2011	Jan 17/18, 2012
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	42	37	36	49	39	33	35	34	38
Disapprove	48	54	56	44	52	59	53	55	54
Approve — Disapprove	(6)	(17)	(20)	5	(13)	(26)	(18)	(21)	(16)
Can’t say	10	9	8	7	9	8	12	11	8
TOTAL	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Better Prime Minister: Gillard v Abbott

Electors were asked: “Thinking of Ms. Julia Gillard and Mr. Tony Abbott. In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister — Ms. Gillard or Mr. Abbott?”

	Gillard v Abbott
	July 27/28, 2010	Aug 3, 2010	Aug 25/26, 2010	Dec 8-12, 2010	Feb 1-3, 2011	Feb 21-23, 2011	Mar 8-10, 2011	Mar 16/17, 2011	Jan 17/18, 2012
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Gillard	48	48	44	46	49	51	48	52	45
Abbott	33	37	36	39	36	35	39	35	41
Gillard lead	15	11	8	7	13	16	9	17	4
Other / Can’t say	19	15	20	15	15	14	13	13	14
TOTAL	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Sex & Age
	Jan 17/18, 2012	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Gillard	45	42	48	43	50	47	42
Abbott	41	44	38	32	41	40	43
Gillard lead	4	(2)	10	11	9	7	(1)
Other / Neither	14	14	14	25	9	13	15
TOTAL	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Jan 17/18, 2012	ALP	L-NP	Greens	Others	Can’t say
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Gillard	45	86	13	62	38	29
Abbott	41	10	73	12	35	18
Gillard lead	4	76	(60)	50	3	11
Other / Neither	14	4	14	26	27	53
TOTAL	100	100	100	100	100	100

Better Prime Minister: Gillard v Turnbull

Electors were asked: “Thinking of Ms. Gillard and Mr. Malcolm Turnbull. In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister — Ms. Gillard or Mr. Turnbull?”

	Gillard v Turnbull
	Mar 16/17, 2011	Jan 17/18, 2012
	%	%
Gillard	44	35
Turnbull	43	53
Gillard lead	1	(18)
Other / Can’t say	13	12
TOTAL	100	100

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Sex & Age
	Jan 17/18, 2012	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Gillard	35	33	37	42	34	39	31
Turnbull	53	55	51	45	51	49	59
Gillard lead	(18)	(22)	(14)	(3)	(17)	(10)	(28)
Other / Neither	12	12	12	13	15	12	10
TOTAL	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Jan 17/18, 2012	ALP	L-NP	Greens	Others	Can’t say
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Gillard	35	62	14	44	30	35
Turnbull	53	32	75	43	46	29
Gillard lead	(18)	30	(61)	1	(16)	6
Other / Neither	12	6	11	13	24	36
TOTAL	100	100	100	100	100	100

Better Prime Minister: Gillard v Hockey

Electors were asked: “Thinking of Ms. Gillard and Mr. Joe Hockey. In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister — Ms. Gillard or Mr. Hockey?”

	Gillard v Hockey
	Jan 17/18, 2012
	%
Gillard	41
Hockey	49
Gillard lead	(8)
Other / Can’t say	10
TOTAL	100

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Sex & Age
	Jan 17/18, 2012	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Gillard	41	41	41	38	41	38	43
Hockey	49	50	48	45	48	51	48
Gillard lead	(8)	(9)	(7)	(7)	(7)	(13)	(5)
Other / Neither	10	9	11	17	11	11	9
TOTAL	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Jan 17/18, 2012	ALP	L-NP	Greens	Others	Can’t say
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Gillard	41	75	17	51	33	8
Hockey	49	21	75	28	43	40
Gillard lead	(8)	54	(58)	23	(10)	(32)
Other / Neither	10	4	8	21	24	52
TOTAL	100	100	100	100	100	100

Better Prime Minister: Gillard v Robb

Electors were asked: “Thinking of Ms. Gillard and Mr. Andrew Robb. In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister — Ms. Gillard or Mr. Robb?”

	Gillard v Robb
	Jan 17/18, 2012
	%
Gillard	48
Robb	29
Gillard lead	19
Other / Can’t say	23
TOTAL	100

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Sex & Age
	Jan 17/18, 2012	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Gillard	48	50	47	44	52	51	46
Robb	29	31	28	33	21	24	35
Gillard lead	19	19	19	11	31	27	11
Other / Neither	23	19	25	23	27	25	19
TOTAL	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Jan 17/18, 2012	ALP	L-NP	Greens	Others	Can’t say
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Gillard	48	84	26	54	35	5
Robb	29	7	49	13	38	18
Gillard lead	19	77	(23)	41	(3)	(13)
Other / Neither	23	9	25	33	27	77
TOTAL	100	100	100	100	100	100

Approval of Leaders — Julia Gillard v Tony Abbott

Prime Minister: Julia Gillard

Electors were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Ms. Gillard is handling her job as Prime Minister?”

	Prime Minister Gillard
	Aug 3, 2010	Aug 25/26, 2010	Dec 8-12, 2010	Feb 1-3, 2011	Feb 21-23, 2011	Mar 8-10, 2011	Mar 16/17, 2011	Jan 17/18, 2012
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	46	49	49	46	46	38	40	34
Disapprove	39	37	38	42	40	51	47	54
Approve - Disapprove	7	12	11	4	6	(13)	(7)	(20)
Can’t say	15	14	13	12	14	11	13	12
TOTAL	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Sex & Age
	Jan 17/18, 2012	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	34	32	36	31	36	40	30
Disapprove	54	59	50	54	46	48	62
Approve - Disapprove	(20)	(27)	(14)	(23)	(10)	(8)	(32)
Can’t say	12	9	14	15	18	12	8
TOTAL	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Jan 17/18, 2012	ALP	L-NP	Greens	Others	Can’t say
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	34	65	10	36	37	20
Disapprove	54	20	82	48	61	43
Approve - Disapprove	(20)	45	(72)	(12)	(24)	(23)
Can’t say	12	15	8	16	2	37
TOTAL	100	100	100	100	100	100

Opposition Leader: Tony Abbott

Electors were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Abbott is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition?”

	Tony Abbott as Opposition Leader
	Aug 3, 2010	Aug 25/26, 2010	Dec 8-12, 2010	Feb 1-3, 2011	Feb 21-23, 2011	Mar 8-10, 2011	Mar 16/17, 2011	Jan 17/18, 2012
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	52	53	50	39	36	42	37	36
Disapprove	38	38	39	46	56	48	54	56
Approve - Disapprove	14	15	11	(7)	(20)	(6)	(17)	(20)
Can’t say	10	9	11	15	8	10	9	8
TOTAL	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Sex & Age
	Jan 17/18, 2012	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	36	33	38	34	33	37	36
Disapprove	56	59	54	51	57	52	60
Approve - Disapprove	(20)	(26)	(16)	(17)	(24)	(15)	(24)
Can’t say	8	8	8	15	10	11	4
TOTAL	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Jan 17/18, 2012	ALP	L-NP	Greens	Others	Can’t say
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	36	15	56	14	36	19
Disapprove	56	77	36	77	58	50
Approve - Disapprove	(20)	(62)	20	(63)	(22)	(31)
Can’t say	8	8	8	9	6	31
TOTAL	100	100	100	100	100	100

For further information:

Gary Morgan:    Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:  Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.

© 2012 Roy Morgan Research. All Rights Reserved
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