L-NP (52%) LEAD CUT AS ALP GAINS (48%)
| Finding No. 4740 -
This face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two week-ends, January 14/15 & 21/22, 2012 with an Australia-wide cross-section of Australians aged 14+ including 1,921 electors, of all electors surveyed, 6% did not name a party.:
January 27, 2012 |
In mid January L-NP support is 52% (down 2% from the last face-to-face Morgan Poll) just ahead of the ALP 48% (up 2%) on a Two-Party preferred basis according to the face-to-face Morgan Poll conducted over the last two weekends, January 14/15 & 21/22, 2012.
The L-NP primary vote is 42.5% (down 2.5%) — ahead of the ALP 38.5% (up 1.5%). Support for the minor parties shows the Greens 12% (up 1.5%) and Others/ Independents 7% (down 0.5%).
If a Federal election were held today the L-NP would win according to today’s Morgan Poll.
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is at 115 (up 12pts) — the highest since May 7/8, 2011, with 49% (up 5.5%) — saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction,’ while 34% (down 6.5%) say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction.’
The latest weekly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating conducted last weekend, January 21/22, 2012, is 117.3 (up 0.7pts from January 14/15, 2012), but down 1.7pts over the period of this poll.
Gary Morgan says:
“Today’s Morgan Poll shows the L-NP 52% (down 2% since the face-to-face Morgan Poll of January 7/8, 2012) still leading the ALP 48% (up 2%) on a Two-Party preferred basis. This is the closest face-to-face Morgan Poll result since March 19/20 & 26/27, 2011 (L-NP 51% cf. ALP 49%).
“In recent weeks the issue of asylum seekers has returned to media attention — although the latest ‘Most Important Issues Facing Australia’ Morgan Poll released today shows only 7% of Australians now regard it as the ‘Most important problem facing Australia’ — down from 14% in October 2011. The fall in importance of this issue over the past few months is good news for the Gillard Government while the lack of boats arriving in Australia in recent weeks is another positive for the Government as it tries to neutralise an issue that traditionally favours the Opposition L-NP.
“The improved performance for the ALP comes along with a strong rise in Government Confidence — up 12pts to 115 — the highest it has been since May 7/8, 2011 and with Consumer Confidence in January averaging 117.6, well above the December average of 111.0. Although these are good signs for the ALP, it should be remembered that on the corresponding weekends last year leading into Australia Day the ALP 52% led the L-NP 48% on a Two-Party preferred basis.”
Electors were asked: “If a Federal Election for the House of Representatives were held today — which party would receive your first preference?”
This face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two week-ends, January 14/15 & 21/22, 2012 with an Australia-wide cross-section of Australians aged 14+ including 1,921 electors, of all electors surveyed, 6% did not name a party.
*Telephone Morgan Polls are conducted using the same methodologies used by other major telephone polls — Nielsen, Newspoll, Galaxy. In analysing telephone Morgan Poll results, it is worth noting that telephone polls are good at capturing the response to current events and have typically been biased towards the L-NP, obtain a higher figure for Minor parties and Independents and more ‘responsive’ to current events.
For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094
Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093
FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)
| |
|
|
The |
Ind./ |
| |
ALP |
L-NP |
Greens |
Others |
|
RECENT ELECTION RESULTS |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Election March 2, 1996 |
38.8 |
47.3 (8.6) |
1.7 |
12.2 |
|
Election October 3^, 1998 |
40.1 |
39.5 (5.3) |
2.1 |
18.3 |
|
Election November 10, 2001 |
37.8 |
43 (5.6) |
4.4 |
13.8 |
|
Election October 9, 2004 |
37.6 |
46.4 (5.9) |
7.2 |
8.8 |
|
Election November 24, 2007 |
43.4 |
42.1 (5.9) |
7.8 |
6.7 |
| Election, August 21, 2010 |
38.0 |
43.6 (3.7) |
11.8 |
6.6 |
|
MORGAN POLL |
|
|
|
|
|
August 22/23, 2010 (SMS) |
40.5 |
44.5 |
10 |
5 |
|
August 25/26, 2010 (Phone) |
36 |
40 (3) |
13 |
11 |
|
August 28/29 & September 4/5, 2010 (Face) |
40.5 |
39.5 (4) |
15 |
5 |
|
September 15/16, 2010 (Phone) |
35.5 |
42.5 (3) |
15 |
7 |
|
September 18/19, 2010 (Face) |
40.5 |
41 (4.5) |
13 |
5.5 |
|
October 2/3, 2010 (Face) |
44 |
38.5 (3) |
12 |
5.5 |
|
October 9/10 & 16/17, 2010 (Face) |
43 |
40.5 (3) |
10.5 |
6 |
|
October 23/24 & 30/31, 2010 (Face) |
43 |
40.5 (4) |
10.5 |
6 |
|
November 6/7 & 13/14, 2010 (Face) |
41 |
40 (4) |
12 |
7 |
|
November 20/21 & 27/28, 2010 (Face) |
40.5 |
42 (3.5) |
12 |
5.5 |
|
December 4/5, 2010 (Face) |
40.5 |
40.5 (4.5) |
13.5 |
5.5 |
|
December 8-12, 2010 (Phone) |
31 |
46 (2) |
13.5 |
9.5 |
|
December 11/12, 2010 (Face) |
38 |
43 (5) |
13.5 |
5.5 |
|
January 8/9, 2011 (Face) |
38.5 |
44 (5.5) |
13 |
4.5 |
|
January 15/16 & 22/23, 2011 (Face) |
40.5 |
41.5 (4) |
11.5 |
6.5 |
|
February 1-3, 2011 (Phone) |
35 |
42.5 (1.5) |
12 |
10.5 |
|
January 29/30 & February 5/6, 2011 (Face) |
39 |
43 (5) |
12.5 |
5.5 |
|
February 12/13 & 19/20, 2011 (Face) |
39.5 |
43 (3) |
11.5 |
6 |
|
February 21-23, 2011 (Phone) |
36 |
45.5 (3.5) |
9.5 |
9 |
| |
|
|
|
|
| (February 24, 2011) - Prime Minister Julia Gillard reintroduces the prospect of a carbon tax |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
February 26/27, 2011 (Face) |
41 |
41 (4) |
11.5 |
6.5 |
|
March 5/6, 2011 (Face) |
37 |
46.5 (5) |
9.5 |
7 |
|
February 26/27 & March 5/6, 2011 (Face) (TOTAL) |
39 |
44 (4.5) |
10.5 |
6.5 |
|
March 8-10, 2011 (Phone) |
31.5 |
47.5 (1.5) |
10 |
11 |
|
March 12/13, 2011 (Face) |
38 |
44.5 (4.5) |
11.5 |
6 |
|
March 16/17, 2011 (Phone) |
35.5 |
42.5 (3) |
12 |
10 |
|
March 19/20, 2011 (Face) |
39.5 |
40 (3) |
12.5 |
8 |
|
March 22-24, 2011 (Phone) |
34.5 |
47 (2.5) |
10 |
8.5 |
|
March 26/27, 2011 (Face) |
35.5 |
47 (6) |
11.5 |
6 |
|
March 19/20 & 26/27, 2011 (Face) (TOTAL) |
37.5 |
43.5 (4.5) |
12 |
7 |
|
April 2/3, 2011 (Face) |
36.5 |
48 (6) |
9.5 |
6 |
|
April 9/10 & 16/17, 2011 (Face) |
35 |
46 (4.5) |
11.5 |
7.5 |
|
April 23/24 & 30/ May 1, 2011 (Face) |
37 |
46 (5.5) |
10.5 |
6.5 |
|
May 3/4, 2011 (Phone) |
34 |
46 (1.5) |
11 |
9 |
|
May 7/8, 2011 (Face) |
34 |
48 (3) |
11 |
7 |
|
May 14/15, 2011 (Face) |
36 |
44.5 (3) |
13 |
6.5 |
|
May 21/22 & 28/29, 2011 (Face) |
36 |
45.5 (4.5) |
12 |
6.5 |
|
May 31 - June 2, 2011 (Phone) |
30 |
50 (2) |
9.5 |
10.5 |
|
June 4/5, 2011 (Face) |
33.5 |
46.5 (3.5) |
12 |
8 |
|
June 11/12 & 18/19, 2011 (Face) |
35 |
46.5 (4.5) |
11.5 |
7 |
|
June 25/26 & July 1/2, 2011 (Face) |
31.5 |
49 (4.5) |
11.5 |
8 |
|
July 9/10, 2011 (Face) |
33.5 |
48 (4.5) |
11.5 |
7 |
|
July 13/14, 2011 (Phone) |
27.5 |
52.5 (2.5) |
10.5 |
9.5 |
|
July 16/17 & 23/24, 2011 (Face) |
34.5 |
47 (4.5) |
12 |
6.5 |
|
July 30/31 & August 6/7, 2011 (Face) |
34.5 |
47.5 (5.5) |
12 |
6 |
|
August 9/10, 2011 (Phone) |
29.5 |
49 (2) |
12 |
9.5 |
|
August 13/14 & 20/21, 2011 (Face) |
32.5 |
49.5 (4.5) |
11 |
7 |
|
August 27/28 & September 3/4, 2011 (Face) |
32.5 |
46.5 (3.5) |
12.5 |
8.5 |
|
September 10/11 & 17/18, 2011 (Face) |
32 |
48 (4) |
11 |
9 |
|
September 24/25 & October 1/2, 2011 (Face) |
35.5 |
46.5 (3) |
10 |
8 |
|
October 8/9, 2011 (Face) |
38.5 |
43.5 (3.5) |
11 |
7 |
|
October 15/16, 2011 (Face) |
36.5 |
44 (4.5) |
10 |
9.5 |
|
October 22/23, 2011 (Face) |
35 |
49.5 (3) |
10.5 |
5 |
|
October 25/26, 2011 (Phone) |
31 |
47 (1.5) |
12.5 |
9.5 |
|
October 29/30, 2011 (Face) |
34 |
46.5 (4.5) |
13.5 |
6 |
|
November 2/3, 2011 (Phone) |
34 |
45 (2) |
12.5 |
8.5 |
|
November 5/6 & 12/13, 2011 (Face) |
34.5 |
47 (4) |
11.5 |
7 |
|
November 19/20, 2011 (Face) |
36.5 |
45.5 (5.5) |
12 |
6 |
|
November 26/27 & December 3/4, 2011 (Face) |
36.5 |
46.5 (3.5) |
10 |
7 |
|
December 10/11 & 17/18, 2011 (Face) |
36.5 |
43 (4) |
13 |
7.5 |
|
January 7/8, 2012 (Face) |
37 |
45 (5.5) |
10.5 |
7.5 |
|
January 17/18, 2012 (Phone) |
35.5 |
46.5 (1) |
9 |
9 |
|
January 14/15 & 21/22, 2012 (Face) |
38.5 |
42.5 (3.5) |
12 |
7 |
Note: National Party results are in brackets. # Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.
^ 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.
* The Family First Party were included as an option on Federal Voting Intention from October 30, 2004.
**Family First were not reported in the SMS Morgan Poll of August 22/23, 2010.
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)
| |
ALP |
L-NP |
|
|
| |
% |
% |
|
|
|
Election, March 2, 1996 |
46.4 |
53.6 |
|
|
|
Election, October 3^, 1998 |
51 |
49 |
|
|
|
Election, November 10, 2001 |
49 |
51 |
|
|
|
Election, October 9, 2004 |
47.3 |
52.7 |
|
|
|
Election, November 24, 2007 |
52.7 |
47.3 |
|
|
|
Election, August 21, 2010 |
50.1 |
49.9 |
|
|
|
|
Preferences distributed
by how electors
say they will vote |
Preferences distributed
by how electors voted
at the 2010 election |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
| MORGAN POLL |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
|
August 22/23, 2010 (SMS) |
50.5 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
|
August 25/26, 2010 (Phone) |
51.5 |
48.5 |
51 |
49 |
|
August 28/29 & September 4/5, 2010 (Face) |
54.5 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
45.5 |
|
September 15/16, 2010 (Phone) |
52 |
48 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
|
September 18/19, 2010 (Face) |
54 |
46 |
53.5 |
46.5 |
|
October 2/3, 2010 (Face) |
56.5 |
43.5 |
55.5 |
44.5 |
|
October 9/10 & 16/17, 2010 (Face) |
55 |
45 |
54 |
46 |
|
October 23/24, 30/31, 2010 (Face) |
54 |
46 |
54 |
46 |
|
November 6/7 & 13/14, 2010 (Face) |
54.5 |
45.5 |
54 |
46 |
|
November 20/21 & 27/28, 2010 (Face) |
52.5 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
|
December 4/5, 2010 (Face) |
52.5 |
47.5 |
53 |
47 |
|
December 8-12, 2010 (Phone) |
46 |
54 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
|
December 11/12, 2010 (Face) |
48.5 |
51.5 |
50 |
50 |
|
January 8/9, 2011 (Face) |
50 |
50 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
|
January 15/16 & 22/23, 2011 (Face) |
52 |
48 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
|
February 1-3, 2011 (Phone) |
49.5 |
50.5 |
49 |
51 |
|
January 29/30 & February 5/6, 2011(Face) |
50 |
50 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
|
February 12/13 & 19/20, 2011 (Face) |
49.5 |
50.5 |
51 |
49 |
|
February 21-23, 2011 (Phone) |
48.5 |
51.5 |
47 |
53 |
| |
|
|
|
|
| (February 24, 2011) - Prime Minister Julia Gillard reintroduces the prospect of a carbon tax |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
February 26/27, 2011 (Face) |
51.5 |
48.5 |
53.5 |
46.5 |
|
March 5/6, 2011 (Face) |
46 |
54 |
48 |
52 |
|
February 26/27 & March 5/6, 2011 (Face) (TOTAL) |
48.5 |
51.5 |
50 |
50 |
|
March 8-10, 2011 (Phone) |
44.5 |
55.5 |
44 |
56 |
|
March 12/13, 2011 (Face) |
48.5 |
51.5 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
|
March 16/17, 2011 (Phone) |
49.5 |
50.5 |
49 |
51 |
|
March 19/20, 2011 (Face) |
52 |
48 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
|
March 22-24, 2011 (Phone) |
45.5 |
54.5 |
46 |
54 |
|
March 26/27, 2011 (Face) |
46.5 |
53.5 |
47 |
53 |
|
March 19/20 & 26/27, 2011 (Face) (TOTAL) |
49 |
51 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
|
April 2/3, 2011 (Face) |
44.5 |
55.5 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
|
April 9/10 & 16/17, 2011 (Face) |
45 |
55 |
47 |
53 |
|
April 23/24 & 30/ May 1, 2011 (Face) |
46.5 |
53.5 |
48 |
52 |
|
May 3/4, 2011 (Phone) |
46 |
54 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
|
May 7/8, 2011 (Face) |
45.5 |
54.5 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
|
May 14/15, 2011 (Face) |
46.5 |
53.5 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
|
May 21/22 & 28/29, 2011 (Face) |
46 |
54 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
|
May 31 - June 2, 2011 (Phone) |
41 |
59 |
42 |
58 |
|
June 4/5, 2011 (Face) |
43.5 |
56.5 |
46 |
54 |
|
June 11/12 & 18/19, 2011 (Face) |
45.5 |
54.5 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
|
June 25/26 & July 1/2, 2011 (Face) |
41.5 |
58.5 |
43.5 |
56.5 |
|
July 9/10, 2011 (Face) |
44 |
56 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
|
July 13/14, 2011 (Phone) |
39.5 |
60.5 |
40 |
60 |
|
July 16/17 & 23/24, 2011 (Face) |
43.5 |
56.5 |
47 |
53 |
|
July 30/31 & August 6/7, 2011 (Face) |
43.5 |
56.5 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
|
August 9/10, 2011 (Phone) |
43 |
57 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
|
August 13/14 & 20/21, 2011 (Face) |
41.5 |
58.5 |
44.5 |
55.5 |
|
August 27/28 & September 3/4, 2011 (Face) |
42 |
58 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
|
September 10/11 & 17/18, 2011 (Face) |
42 |
58 |
44.5 |
55.5 |
|
September 24/25 & October 1/2, 2011 (Face) |
43 |
57 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
|
October 8/9, 2011 (Face) |
47.5 |
52.5 |
50 |
50 |
|
October 15/16, 2011 (Face) |
46.5 |
53.5 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
|
October 22/23, 2011 (Face) |
43.5 |
56.5 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
|
October 25/26, 2011 (Phone) |
44.5 |
55.5 |
45 |
55 |
|
October 29/30, 2011 (Face) |
44 |
56 |
47 |
53 |
|
November 2/3, 2011 (Phone) |
48.5 |
51.5 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
|
November 5/6 & 12/13, 2011 (Face) |
43.5 |
56.5 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
|
November 19/20, 2011 (Face) |
45.5 |
54.5 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
|
November 26/27 & December 3/4, 2011 (Face) |
44.5 |
55.5 |
47 |
53 |
|
December 10/11 & 17/18, 2011 (Face) |
46.5 |
53.5 |
50 |
50 |
|
January 7/8, 2012 (Face) |
46 |
54 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
|
January 17/18, 2012 (Phone) |
45.5 |
54.5 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
|
January 14/15 & 21/22, 2012 (Face) |
48 |
52 |
51 |
49 |
^ 1998 Federal Election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.
THINK WILL WIN
Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal Election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"
|
Think Will Win |
ALP |
L-NP |
Can't Say |
| |
% |
% |
% |
|
August 25/26, 2010 (Phone) |
33.5 |
42 |
24.5 |
|
August 28/29 & September 4/5, 2010 (Face) |
43 |
37.5 |
19.5 |
|
September 15/16, 2010 (Phone) |
34 |
42.5 |
23.5 |
|
September 18/19, 2010 (Face) |
38.5 |
43.5 |
18 |
|
October 2/3, 2010 (Face) |
41 |
40 |
19 |
|
October 9/10 & 16/17, 2010 (Face) |
43 |
41.5 |
15.5 |
|
October 23/24 & 30/31, 2010 (Face) |
41.5 |
42 |
16.5 |
|
November 6/7 & 13/14, 2010 (Face) |
42 |
41.5 |
16.5 |
|
November 20/21 & 27/28, 2010 (Face) |
39 |
45 |
16 |
|
December 4/5, 2010 (Face) |
30.5 |
52.5 |
17 |
|
December 8-12, 2010 (Phone) |
31.5 |
56.5 |
12 |
|
December 11/12, 2010 (Face) |
32.5 |
53 |
14.5 |
|
January 8/9, 2011 (Face) |
35.5 |
56 |
8.5 |
|
January 15/16 & 22/23, 2011 (Face) |
38.5 |
49 |
12.5 |
|
February 1-3, 2011 (Phone) |
37 |
48.5 |
14.5 |
|
January 29/30 & February 5/6, 2011 (Face) |
37.5 |
52 |
10.5 |
|
February 12/13 & 19/20, 2011 (Face) |
41.5 |
47.5 |
11 |
|
February 21-23, 2011 (Phone) |
35 |
52.5 |
12.5 |
| |
|
|
|
| (February 24, 2011) - Prime Minister Julia Gillard reintroduces the prospect of a carbon tax |
| |
|
|
|
|
February 26/27, 2011 (Face) |
41 |
46.5 |
12.5 |
|
March 5/6, 2011 (Face) |
34.5 |
53 |
12.5 |
|
February 26/27 & March 5/6, 2011 (Face) |
37.5 |
50 |
12.5 |
|
March 8-10, 2011 (Phone) |
28.5 |
58 |
13.5 |
|
March 12/13, 2011 (Face) |
37 |
54 |
9 |
|
March 16/17, 2011 (Phone) |
30.5 |
57 |
12.5 |
|
March 19/20, 2011 (Face) |
37 |
51.5 |
11.5 |
|
March 22-24, 2011 (Phone) |
37 |
52.5 |
10.5 |
|
March 26/27, 2011 (Face) |
32.5 |
57 |
10.5 |
|
March 19/20 & 26/27, 2011 (Face) (TOTAL) |
34.5 |
54.5 |
11 |
|
April 2/3, 2011 (Face) |
27.5 |
62.5 |
10 |
|
April 9/10 & 16/17, 2011 (Face) |
28.5 |
60.5 |
11 |
|
April 23/24 & 30/ May 1, 2011 (Face) |
27 |
62.5 |
10.5 |
|
May 3/4, 2011 (Phone) |
26 |
62.5 |
11.5 |
|
May 7/8, 2011 (Face) |
31.5 |
59 |
9.5 |
|
May 14/15, 2011 (Face) |
34.5 |
54 |
11.5 |
|
May 21/22 & 28/29, 2011 (Face) |
30 |
58.5 |
11.5 |
|
May 31 - June 2, 2011 (Phone) |
25.5 |
59.5 |
15 |
|
June 4/5, 2011 (Face) |
30 |
60.5 |
9.5 |
|
June 11/12 & 18/19, 2011 (Face) |
29 |
59.5 |
11.5 |
|
June 25/26 & July 1/2, 2011 (Face) |
25 |
64.5 |
10.5 |
|
July 9/10, 2011 (Face) |
28.5 |
63.5 |
8 |
|
July 13/14, 2011 (Phone) |
22 |
68 |
10 |
|
July 16/17 & 23/24, 2011 (Face) |
21.5 |
68 |
10.5 |
|
July 30/31 & August 6/7, 2011 (Face) |
27.5 |
63 |
9.5 |
|
August 9/10, 2011 (Phone) |
20 |
72 |
8 |
|
August 13/14 & 20/21, 2011 (Face) |
24.5 |
63.5 |
12 |
|
August 27/28 & September 3/4, 2011 (Face) |
22 |
68 |
10 |
|
September 10/11 & 17/18, 2011 (Face) |
23.5 |
72.5 |
4 |
|
September 24/25 & October 1/2, 2011 (Face) |
25.5 |
70 |
4.5 |
|
October 8/9, 2011 (Face) |
25.5 |
69 |
5.5 |
|
October 15/16, 2011 (Face) |
29 |
66.5 |
4.5 |
|
October 22/23, 2011 (Face) |
26.5 |
68.5 |
5 |
|
October 25/26, 2011 (Phone) |
19 |
70 |
11 |
|
October 29/30, 2011 (Face) |
25 |
70.5 |
4.5 |
|
November 2/3, 2011 (Phone) |
22 |
69.5 |
8.5 |
|
November 5/6 & 12/13, 2011 (Face) |
30 |
65.5 |
4.5 |
|
November 19/20, 2011 (Face) |
36.5 |
58.5 |
5 |
|
November 26/27 & December 3/4, 2011 (Face) |
34.5 |
60.5 |
5 |
|
December 10/11 & 17/18, 2011 (Face) |
36 |
60 |
4 |
|
January 7/8, 2012 (Face) |
36.5 |
60.5 |
3 |
|
January 17/18, 2012 (Phone) |
30 |
59 |
11 |
|
January 14/15 & 21/22, 2012 (Face) |
36 |
59 |
5 |
AUSTRALIA HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION
Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”
| |
Interviewing Dates — ALP Government (Julia Gillard v Tony Abbott) |
| |
Jan
8/9 |
Jan 15/16
& 22/23 |
Feb
1-3 |
Jan 29/30 & Feb 5/6 |
Feb 12/13
& 19/20 |
Feb
21-23 |
Feb 26/27
& Mar 5/6 |
Mar
8-10 |
Mar
12/13 |
Mar
16/17 |
Mar
22-24 |
Mar 19/20
& 26/27 |
Apr
2/3 |
Apr 9/10
& 16/17 |
Apr 23/24
& 30/ May 1 |
May
3/4 |
| |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Phone |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Right direction |
53 |
57 |
53.5 |
54 |
52 |
57 |
49 |
53.5 |
52.5 |
52.5 |
44.5 |
49 |
44.5 |
46 |
46.5 |
45 |
|
Wrong direction |
29.5 |
26.5 |
31 |
29 |
29.5 |
29.5 |
36 |
33.5 |
29.5 |
34.5 |
43.5 |
35.5 |
37 |
34 |
34.5 |
41 |
|
Roy Morgan GCR* |
123.5 |
130.5 |
122.5 |
125 |
122.5 |
127.5 |
113 |
120 |
123 |
118 |
101 |
113.5 |
107.5 |
112 |
112 |
104 |
|
Can’t say |
17.5 |
16.5 |
15.5 |
17 |
18.5 |
13.5 |
15 |
13 |
18 |
13 |
12 |
15.5 |
18.5 |
20 |
19 |
14 |
|
TOTAL |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
| |
Interviewing Dates — ALP Government (Julia Gillard v Tony Abbott) |
| |
May
7/8 |
May
14/15 |
May 21/22
& 28/29 |
May 31
- June 2 |
June
4/5 |
June 11/12
& 18/19 |
June 25/26
& July 1/2 |
July
9/10 |
July
13/14 |
July 16/17
& 23/24 |
July 30/31
& Aug 6/7 |
Aug
9/10 |
Aug 13/14
& 20/21 |
Aug 27/28
& Sep 3/4 |
Sep 10/11
& 17/18 |
| |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Face |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Right direction |
46.5 |
47 |
45 |
46.5 |
41.5 |
43 |
40 |
41 |
43.5 |
41.5 |
42.5 |
42 |
40.5 |
40 |
39 |
|
Wrong direction |
31.5 |
36.5 |
37.5 |
40 |
38.5 |
38 |
43.5 |
41 |
44 |
43.5 |
41 |
47.5 |
43.5 |
45.5 |
45.5 |
|
Roy Morgan GCR* |
115 |
110.5 |
107.5 |
106.5 |
103 |
105 |
96.5 |
100 |
99.5 |
98 |
101.5 |
94.5 |
97 |
94.5 |
93.5 |
|
Can’t say |
22 |
16.5 |
17.5 |
13.5 |
20 |
19 |
16.5 |
18 |
12.5 |
15 |
16.5 |
10.5 |
16 |
14.5 |
15.5 |
|
TOTAL |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
| |
Interviewing Dates — ALP Government (Julia Gillard v Tony Abbott) |
| |
Sep 24/25
& Oct 1/2 |
Oct
8/9 |
Oct
15/16 |
Oct
22/23 |
Oct
25/26 |
Oct
29/30 |
Nov
2/3 |
Nov 5/6
& 12/13 |
Nov
19/20 |
Nov 26/27
& Dec 3/4 |
Dec 10/11
& 17/18 |
Jan
7/8 |
Jan
17/18 |
Jan 14/15
& 21/22 |
|
| |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
|
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Right direction |
39.5 |
42 |
39.5 |
42.5 |
45 |
46.5 |
48.5 |
45.5 |
47.5 |
45 |
47 |
43.5 |
48 |
49 |
|
|
Wrong direction |
43.5 |
40.5 |
42.5 |
39.5 |
43 |
38.5 |
43 |
40 |
36.5 |
38.5 |
39 |
40.5 |
40 |
34 |
|
|
Roy Morgan GCR* |
96 |
101.5 |
97 |
103 |
102 |
108 |
105.5 |
105.5 |
111 |
106.5 |
108 |
103 |
108 |
115 |
|
|
Can’t say |
17 |
17.5 |
18 |
18 |
12 |
15 |
8.5 |
14.5 |
16 |
16.5 |
14 |
16 |
12 |
17 |
|
|
TOTAL |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
|
Phone: Telephone survey method; Face: Face-to-face survey method.
* Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (100 plus the difference between the percentage of people who say the country is “going in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “going in seriously the wrong direction”).
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
|
Sample Size |
Percentage Estimate |
| |
40%-60% |
25% or 75% |
10% or 90% |
5% or 95% |
|
500 |
±4.5 |
±3.9 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
| 1,000 |
±3.2 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
±1.4 |
|
1,500 |
±2.6 |
±2.2 |
±1.5 |
±1.1 |
|
2,000 |
±2.2 |
±1.9 |
±1.3 |
±1 |
The Morgan Poll was the most accurate of all polling companies at the 2007 Federal Election for both primary vote and two-party preferred predictions (sample 2,115 electors).
The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland Election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).
The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian Election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors). The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.
Note: The recent discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading.
The following included comment says it all: “I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%). Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll. On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s.”
View Federal Voting Intention Trend
The Roy Morgan Research Centre conducts the Morgan Poll in Australia and New Zealand and is the Gallup International Association Member
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.
|
