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Australian - based Roy Morgan International's first voting poll in the UK correctly predicted the margin in yesterday's UK election.

The Roy Morgan poll, based on 466 telephone interviews from Melbourne, Australia and Auckland, New Zealand during May 18-22, predicted the landslide win for Labour ( International Article No. 6, published on June 6, 2001).

Preliminary election results show the Roy Morgan poll on voting intentions was extremely accurate.

The Roy Morgan Poll's predictions, with preliminary election results in parenthesis, were:

Labour 43.5% (40.7%), Conservative 33.5% (31.7%) Liberal Democrat 17.5% (18.3%) Greens and other 5.5% (9.3%).

Of all the polls undertaken in the UK, the Roy Morgan poll was the most accurate in estimating the Labour margin over the Conservatives. Roy Morgan Poll predicted a 10% margin (9%).

All other polls predicted a much larger Labour margin with Gallup†  and NOP predicting a large 17% margin, and Mori a 15% margin.

The table below, based on preliminary results, shows the error on each party. Of all the major polls undertaken in the UK only one, published in the Guardian, was closer to the individual results, while Mori (published in The Times) and Rasmussen (Independent) had about the same error.

The findings of the poll were featured on the Roy Morgan web site and distributed to international media.

Executive Chairman of Roy Morgan International, Mr Gary Morgan, said today: "It's all in the question."

"Over more than 25 years of polling we have noted that telephone polls are biased toward the party that people think will win. (When asked 'Which Party do you think will win', 80.5% of those who said they were absolutely certain to vote said Labour would win, compared with 4.5% who thought the Conservatives would win and 15% who were undecided.)

"We have written papers on this issue with Australian examples. The current U.K. experience demonstrates that the phenomenon is the same in the U.K."

He also said the result confirmed that an election campaign made little difference to public voting intentions.

"We have found the same situation exists in Australia and New Zealand."

He said the UK result did not augur well for the Prime Minister John Howard's Coalition Government in Australia, which goes to the polls later this year. The Australian Morgan Poll has had the Opposition Labor Party in front in every poll since the end of October 1999. (See Paper 2001 MY1 - "Only Real Leadership Or A Crisis Can Save the L-NP Coalition").

Mr Morgan added: "We were the most accurate Australian poll in predicting the Labor wins in the State election in New South Wales ¹, the Ryan by-election in Queensland², and was the only research organisation to predict the knife edge result in the 1999 Victorian state election, three months out until the election, that led to the defeat of the Liberal Kennett Government³".

Roy Morgan Research was founded in 1941. Renowned for accuracy, it is the Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

¹Morgan Poll Finding No. 3180 - 1,277 electors interviewed on March 26/27, 1999 (the night before and on election day).
See Morgan Poll accuracy release Finding No. 3181

²Morgan Poll Finding No. 3381 - 585 electors interviewed on March 3/4, 2001 (2 weeks prior to the Ryan Byelection).
See Morgan Poll accuracy release Finding No. 3392.

³Morgan Poll Finding No. 3231 - 1,220 electors interviewed on September 18, 1999 (election day).
See Morgan Poll accuracy release Finding No. 3238.

†Not a member of Gallup International Association

* Preliminary results published on http://news.bbc.co.uk, as of June 12, 2001

For further information contact Gary Morgan on: +61 3 9419 3242 or +61 0411 129 093

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