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Roy Morgan Research has compiled a summary of all Australia-wide Morgan Polls and other polls conducted from mid-August up to the election.

Gary Morgan says:

“On election eve, with most of the campaigning over, the electorate has settled on a two-party preferred position that puts the ALP ahead of the L-NP (ALP 51% cf L-NP 49%). This is a slightly smaller lead than the face-to-face Morgan Poll conducted on the weekend before the election; ALP 51.5% cf L-NP 48.5%.

“The final result — who wins Government — will depend on how the critical individual marginal L-NP seats fall. “The ALP most marginal seats look solid for the ALP (ALP 61% cf L-NP 39%) although there is a chance that the Coalition will gain the Tasmanian seat of Bass.

“However, the L-NP marginals are not looking strong enough to ensure an L-NP majority (ALP 50.5% cf L-NP 49.5%).

“In such a close situation, preferences of the minor parties will be critical, as will the ‘point-of-vote’ material   and skills and persuasion of those manning booths in marginal electorates.”

For further information:

Table 1: Morgan Poll face-to-face & telephone result comparison

	Nov 10 2001 Federal Election Result	Face-to-Face Morgan Poll 2004					Telephone Morgan Poll 2004
		Aug 28/29 & Sept 4/5#	Sept 11/12	Sept 18/19	Sept 25/26	Oct 2/3		Sept 8/9	Sept 15/16	Sept 22/23	Sept 29/30	Oct 7/8
Sample Size		(1,866)	(993)	(1,046)	(1,323)	(1,019)		(627)	(1,055)	(993)	(1,010)	(1,311)
	%	%	%	%	%	%		%	%	%	%	%
Voting Intention
Liberal	37.4	35.5	38	40	40	37.5		45	39	39	39.5	40.5
National	5.6	3	2	2.5	4	4		2	1	4.5	5.5	5
L-NP	43	38.5	40	42.5	44	41.5		47	40	43.5	45	45.5
ALP	37.8	43	43.5	41	40	40.5		36.5	43	38.5	36.5	38.5
Total others	19.2	18.5	16.5	16.5	16	18		16.5	17	18	18.5	16
Aust Democrats	5.4	2	2	2	1	2		1.5	1.5	2.5	2	1
Greens	4.4	10.5	8	7.5	9	9		10	10	10	9.5	9.5
One Nation	4.3	0.5	1	1	1	1		0.5	1.5	1.5	1	1
Other	5.1	5.5	5.5	6	5	6		4.5	4	4	6	4.5
Two Party
L-NP	51	44	45.5	47	50	48.5		53.5	45.5	51.5	52.5	49
ALP	49	56	54.5	53	50	51.5		46.5	54.5	48.5	47.5	51
L-NP % lead	+2%	-12%	-9%	-6%	-	-3%		+7%	-9%	+3%	+5%	-2%
Think will win
L-NP	52*	47.5	56.5	56	59	55		62	57.5	59.5	60	67
ALP	34	36.5	29.5	29	30	32.5		21.5	28	27.5	26	19
Can't Say	14	16	14	15	11	12.5		16.5	14.5	13	14	14
* Nov 3/4 2001
Past-Vote (2001 Federal Election)
Liberal	37.4	36	36	38	38	37.5		43	37	39.5	41	36
National	5.6	2	1.5	2.5	2	3		3	2.5	2.5	3	3.5
L-NP	43	38	37.5	40.5	40	40.5		46	39.5	42	44	39.5
ALP	37.8	36	37.5	33.5	33.5	33.5		29.5	32.5	29.5	27	30
Total Others	19.2	14.5	14	14	14.5	14		14.5	16.5	14	16	13.5
Aust Dem	5.4	3	2.5	3	2.5	3.5		3.5	5	2.5	5	3.5
Greens	4.4	6.5	7	6.5	6.5	6.5		6.5	7	7	5.5	7
One Nation	4.3	1.5	2	1.5	2	1		2.5	2.5	1.5	2.5	1
Other	5.1	3.5	2.5	3	3.5	3		2	2	3	3.5	2
Didn't vote		6.5	6.5	6.5	6.5	7.5		4.5	6	6	7	7.5
Can't Say/Refusal		5	4.5	5.5	5.5	4.5		5.5	5.5	8.5	5.5	9.5
	100	100	100	100	100	100		100	100	100	100	100

#ALP Well Ahead A Week Before Jakarta Bomb, Morgan Poll Finding No. 3777, September 11, 2004
/news/polls/2004/3777/

Morgan Poll sampling tolerance:

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample size	Percentage estimate
	25-75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
1000	Â ± 3	Â ± 2	Â ± 1½

Table 2: Newspoll telephone result comparison

	Nov 10 2001 Federal Election Result	Aug 13/15	Aug 27/29	Sept 3/5	Sept 10/12	Sept 17/19	Sept 24/26	Oct 1/3	Oct 6/7*
Sample Size		(1,145)	(1,145)	(1,734)	(1,707)	(1,674)	(1,701)	(1,680)	(2,500)
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Voting Intention
Liberal	37.4	36	39	42	42	40	39	42	41
National	5.6	3	4	3	4	3	4	4	4
L-NP	43	39	43	45	46	43	43	46	45
ALP	37.8	42	40	40	40	41	40	39	39
Total others	19.2	19	17	15	14	16	17	15	16
Aust Democrats	5.4	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Greens	4.4	6	6	8	6	7	7	7	7
One Nation	4.3	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
Other	5.1	11	10	6	7	8	9	7	7
Two Party
L-NP	51	46	48	50	50	47.5	48	50.5	50
ALP	49	54	52	50	50	52.5	52	49.5	50
L-NP % lead	+2%	-8	-4	-	-	-5	-4	+1	-

*Marginal seat poll L-NP would win 51.5% to ALP 48.5%.

Election 2001 result 51.2% L-NP, 48.5% ALP - Oct 4-6.

Table 3: ACNielsen Poll telephone result comparison*

	Nov 10 2001 Federal Election Result	Aug 13/15	Sept 3/5	Sept 14/16	Sept 21/23	Sept 30/ Oct 2	Oct 5-7
Sample Size		(1,414)	(1,415)	(1,408)	(1,417)	(1,397)	(2,029)
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Voting Intention
L-NP	43	42	46	48	50	48	49
ALP	37.8	39	40	40	36	39	37
Total others	19.2	19	14	13	14	14	14
Aust Democrats	5.4	2	2	1	1	1	1
Greens	4.4	9	9	8	8	8	7
One Nation	4.3	3	1	1	1	1	1
Other	5.4	4	3	3	4	4	5
Two Party
L-NP	51	47	50	51	54	52	54
ALP	49	53	50	49	46	48	46
L-NP % lead	+2%	-6	-	+2	+8	+4	+8

* Figures may not add up to 100 due to rounding

Table 4: Galaxy Poll telephone result comparison  

	Nov 10 2001 Federal Election Result	Aug 20/22	Sept 3/5	Sept 17/19	Oct 1/3	Oct 5-6
Sample Size		(996)	(1,000)	(1,010)	(1,000)	(1,200)
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Voting Intention
Liberal	37.4	38	42	40	41	41
National	5.6	5	4	6	4	5
L-NP	43	43	46	46	45	46
ALP	37.8	39	39	41	39	39
Total others	19.2	18	15	13	16	15
Aust Democrats	5.4	2	2	1	2	1
Greens	4.4	8	8	7	7	7
One Nation	4.3	-	-	-	-	-
Other	5.4	8	5	5	7	7
Two Party
L-NP	51	50	52	51	52	52
ALP	49	50	48	49	48	48
L-NP % lead	+2%	-	+4	+2	+4	+4

Table 5: Senate Voting  

	Senate Election Nov 10, 2001	Morgan Poll Face-to-Face			ACNielsen Poll Telephone Sept 30 - Oct 2
		Aug 14/15, 21/22, 28/29 & Sep 4/5	Sept 11/12 & 18/19	Sept 25/26 & Oct 2/3
Sample Size		(3,744)	(2,037)	(2,342)	(1,397)
	%	%	%	%	%
L-NP	42	34.5	37	39	42
ALP	34.1	37	36.5	36	31
One Nation	5.6	1.5	1.5	2	2
Democrats	7.2	7	6	4	5
Greens	4.9	12.5	12	12	12
Other	6.2	7.5	7	7	8

Table 6: Channel 9/Bulletin Poll

Conducted by the Australian National University

	Nov 10 2001 Federal Election Result	Sept 12-19	Sept 20-26	Sept 27 - Oct 3*
Sample Size		(4,782)	(4,249)	(5,141)
	%	%	%	%
Voting Intention
L-NP	43	42	41	40
ALP	37.8	40	43	42
Total others	19.2	18	16	17.5
Aust Democrats	5.4	2	1	1.5
Greens	4.4	7	7	7
Other	9.4	9	8	9
Two Party
L-NP	51	49.3	47	47
ALP	49	50.7	53	53
L-NP % lead	+2%	-1.4%	-6%	-6%

* Figures may not add up to 100 due to rounding

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