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At present there is a lot of discussion on the accuracy of political opinion polls and whether the Coalition has any chance of being re-elected at the Federal election later in the year. These are two separate questions.

Poll watchers should be aware that over the years there have been some elections where nearly all pre-election public opinion polls were very wrong when compared to an election result.  However, today the polls are accurate — if an election were held today the ALP would win.

The real issue is the election is not being held today and much can happen before it is.

The best two overseas examples of elections where all the polls were wrong are the 1948 US Presidential Election and the 1992 UK General Election.

The best Australian examples are Hewson (L-NP) losing the 1993 Federal Election and Kennett (L-NP) losing the close 1999 Victorian State election.

So polls can be wrong!

My father (Roy Morgan) was sent to the US in 1940 and 1948 by Sir Keith Murdoch to work with Dr George Gallup. He worked with Gallup on the 1948 Presidential Election when they were all wrong — Truman defeated Dewey! 

At the time, weeks before the 1948 election, he pointed out his concerns regarding the Gallup “quota sampling” method using area “quotas” covering large areas (e.g. New York).

Today most polling companies throughout the world know how to survey accurate cross-sections; however, there are other major problems.

Apart from electors changing their minds in the last few days before an election — as they are allowed to do and actually did in Australia in 2001 and 2004 — there are two polling aspects not often discussed, namely:

1. How do those who refuse to answer a poll intend to vote (we cannot assume they vote like those who answered) — hard to measure but we are working on it!

Dr George Gallup talked to me about this a lot in 1964 when I was his assistant working with him in Princeton. See the UK comment on the 1992 General Election polls:  “those who intended voting Conservative were more reluctant to be interviewed or to say how they would vote than Labour voters”; and

2. How do those who don’t vote or vote for a minor party influence the final outcome. In the US and UK voting is “first past the post” and not compulsory so a significant number of electors don’t vote (we can’t simply assume those who refuse to answer a poll “don’t vote”).

Tony Cowling, formally Chairman of TNS (Europe’s largest market research company) and now President of the Gallup International Association, pointed out yesterday: "With the general decline in turnout percentage across the western/developed world the problem of predicting turnout is becoming ever larger.  At a recent meeting of the British Polling Council (a caucus of polling agencies) I was surprised how little they had done/were doing to try to 'predict' turnout."

With compulsory voting in Australia, a significant number of electors now vote for minor parties. It is their preferences that decide the election result! 

With “how to vote” cards and marketing (posters) at election booths, “minor party” preferences are almost impossible to measure using public opinion polls.

But if the question being asked is: Can anything stop the ALP winning the Federal Election considering they have been well in front in all polls for months?

The answer is “yes”, but over the next few months much can happen and we know “over 20%” of electors make up their minds as they vote!

Similarly, more than thirty years ago (October 1973) a Roy Morgan “double interview survey” found that when electors were asked their present voting intention in a “secret ballot” 18% marked their papers differently compared with their voting intention in a similar “secret ballot” two months earlier. 

The same report found that “it is probable that over a year about a third of all electors are swinging voters for varying periods”.

For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office (03) 9224 5213 Mobile 0411 129 094 Home (03) 9419 3242

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