Home |  site-map |  indonesia |  indonesian-single-source-articles |  asteroid-user-registration |

Roy Morgan OZ Panel Login  |  Mail Diary Panel Login |   careers |  contact-us |  state-of-the-nation-webcast |

 Search:  Entire Site Polls Press Releases  

APEC has changed the agenda and given John Howard a much needed break according to a special Morgan Poll, conducted in the last 24 hours using the Reactor — Roy Morgan Research’s online real time reaction device based on an Australia-wide sample of 651 electors (415 ALP supporters and 236 L-NP supporters).  See Roy Morgan Reactor.

See Roy Morgan Reactor on www.FederalElection.com.au — the world’s first election-focused media platform.

The Red line (ALP supporters) and the Blue line (L-NP supporters) show how polarised the electorate is.  In general, the Blue line (L-NP supporters) react positively to any L-NP speeches or messages and the Red line (ALP supporters) react positively to any ALP speeches or messages.  The Reactor shows both leaders, John Howard and Kevin Rudd, speak well to their supporters.

Overall, the Australian electorate did not respond well to President George W. Bush.  L-NP electors (the Blue line) reacted more favourably than ALP electors.

Additional analysis shows APEC has changed the agenda and given John Howard his break.  Support for the Howard L-NP Government is at its lowest point ever — and a quick ‘sound bite’ of Howard talking about Iraq does not get a good reaction from the electorate. However, when Howard articulates ‘the new international consensus on the need for a long term, aspirational, global, emissions reduction goal’ the Blue line hits a high and the Red line moves out of the ‘negative’ —  ALP supporters’ negativity is neutralised.

The electorate also reacted positively to Mark Vaile and especially Alexander Downer as they voiced their support for John Howard as leader, and praised him for his past performance and endorsed him as the best person to lead the L-NP into the next election.

Kevin Rudd’s impressive welcome to the Chinese President Hu Jintao in Chinese, while appealing to ALP supporters, reinforcing their positive view of their leader, failed to move the Blue line — L-NP supporters reacted ‘negatively’.

Indeed, the only non-negative reaction Rudd managed to illicit from L-NP supporters was his entreaty to leave PM leadership debate alone for the weekend, and allow Howard to focus on the APEC — ‘unhelpful for Mr Costello’s supporters  to be out there debating Mr Howard’s leadership when we have this important conference to conduct’.

Gary Morgan says:

“If the L-NP Ministers and Liberal Party get behind Howard the electorate will act positively.  If Peter Costello openly endorses Howard and praises him for the job he’s done, the Howard Government is in the game again.

“The Reactor based on an Australia -wide sample of 651 showed that the next election is not a foregone conclusion.  At least two Ministers — Vaile and Downer, experienced a positive reaction from the electorate; that gain momentum as they publicly support Howard as leader.

“Although Kevin Rudd did not move the L-NP supporters it must be remembered that today with the L-NP vote at its lowest level, those now supporting the L-NP are real ‘die hard’ L-NP voters — unlikely to be swayed by anything the ALP leader would do. The real issue is of course is how the ‘soft ALP voters’ react.”

Detailed analysis of the Roy Morgan Reactor is available for $9,800.

The interactive CD-ROM provides reactions of the electorate to Prime Minister John Howard, President George W. Bush, Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd, Foreign Minister Alexander Downer and Trade Minister Mark Vaile with detailed analysis including ‘soft ALP’ and ‘soft L-NP’ voters; age, gender, States including city and country areas.
 
Individual electorate analysis is available on request for an additional $950 per electorate.

To purchase or enquire about the CD-ROM contact Luke Griffiths on +61 3 9223 2466.

View the Reactor video here.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:      Office + 61 3 9224 5213           Mobile + 61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:   Office + 61 3 9224 5215           Mobile + 61 411 129 093

© 2007 Roy Morgan Research. All Rights Reserved
privacy-statement