Consumer Confidence is at 108.2pts (down 7.5pts in a week) according to the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating conducted last weekend (May 19/20, 2012). Consumer Confidence is now 7.4pts lower than a year ago May 21/22, 2011 (115.6).

The fall in Consumer Confidence has been driven by decreased confidence about all components of the survey, especially confidence about the next year.

Australians have lost confidence over the past week about their personal finances over the next 12 months with 35% (down 3%) saying they expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially while 25% (up 8%) expect to be ‘worse off’ (the highest since July 30/31, 2011).

Australians are also far less confident about Australia’s economy over the next twelve months with 28% (down 5%) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ economically over the next twelve months compared to 36% (up 5%) that expect Australia to have ‘bad times’.

Australians are also less confident about Australia’s economy over the longer term with 32% (down 3%) of Australians expecting Australia to have ‘good times’ economically over the next five years compared to 24% (up 6%) that expect ‘bad times’.

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Consumer Confidence in May was unchanged on the month prior. Consumer sentiment is stronger than a year ago, though the underlying spirit remains one of caution.

Our composite growth indicator – which comprises consumer confidence (current conditions) and indicators from the National Bank Business Outlook survey – is flagging 2.1 percent growth.

This is respectable but hardly stellar, suggesting a continuation of “grumpy growth”.

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence measure was broadly unchanged at 113.9 in May. A marginal drop was recorded once seasonality is taken into account. The net balances for two of the five sub-segments that make up Consumer Confidence rose: views towards the economic picture 12 months ahead and the five year outlook. Conversely, consumers still feel worse off, and more so (-8 versus -4) than last month. Households still perceive it as being a good time to buy a major household item, though the net balance eased from +28 to +25.

The Current Conditions Index posted a 3.5 point drop to 108.1 and the Future Conditions Index rose 2 points to 117.7. Stepping back from intra-monthly noise the trend still looks once of modest improvement, though it is notable that current conditions – the key bellwether of tomorrow’s spending trends – remains subdued, and this indicates continued caution on the part of consumers.

We focus on a composite indicator that includes both business sentiment and Consumer Confidence. Business sentiment indicators such as employment and investment intentions are timely barometers of pending momentum. Yet recent lofty readings from business confidence surveys have tended to overstate reality, with a notable mismatch between expectations and outcomes. A key reason for this mismatch has been subdued consumer sentiment, which, as representative of the final purchaser, has flagged a more restrained environment for businesses (the sellers).

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A special telephone Morgan Poll on foreign ownership of farmland shows that a large majority of Australians (74%) disapprove of foreign investors buying Australian farmland compared to only 20.5% that approve while 5.5% can’t say.

More women (78%) disapprove than men (70%) disapprove while those from Victoria (79%), New South Wales (75%) and South Australia (74.5%) are the most disapproving of foreign investment in Australia’s farmland.

Supporters of all political parties also disapprove of foreign ownership of Australian farmland. L-NP supporters (80.5%) and ALP supporters (77%) are very closely aligned on this issue.

Gary Morgan says:

“Australians are firmly opposed to foreign ownership of Australian farmland with 74% disapproving of foreign investors buying Australian farmland compared to only 20.5% that approve. Supporters of both major political parties are also in agreement on this issue with 77% of ALP supporters and 80.5% of L-NP supporters opposed to foreign ownership of Australian farmland.

“The strong disapproval is also evident amongst those who are most impacted by the laws in this area with 78% of Australians in the country disapproving compared to 72% of city-dwelling Australians and strong majorities of respondents from all Australian States, led by Victoria (79%) and New South Wales (75%) disapproving. The clear opposition provides a clear mandate for the Gillard Government to re-examine the laws and regulations surrounding foreign purchases of Australian farmland.”

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Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a further drop in support for Prime Minister John Key’s National Party 44.5% (down 2.5% since April 16-29, 2012). Support for Key’s Coalition partners has changed slightly with the Maori Party 1% (down 0.5%), United Future 1% (up 0.5%) and ACT NZ 0% (down 0.5%).

Support for Labour has risen 1.5% to 30%, Greens are unchanged at 15%, New Zealand First 5.5% (up 0.5%), Mana Party 0.5% (unchanged) and Others 2.5% (up 1%).

If a National Election were held today a left-wing alliance between Labour, Greens and NZ First (50.5%) would have the best chance of forming Government with all parties clearly above the 5% threshold required for electing party list seats.

The latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is down 7 points to 115.5 (the lowest for over a year since February 14-27, 2011) – with 51% (down 4% of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 35.5% (up 3%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

In May 2012 Australians believe the most important problems facing Australia and the World are Economic & Financial issues according to the latest Roy Morgan Research conducted on the nights of April 17-19 and May 12/13, 2012.

Australian views on Problems facing Australia

When asked about the most important problem facing Australia, Economic & Financial issues are mentioned by 44% (up 9% since January 2012) including Unemployment 11% (up 5%), Economy, Economic problems & Interest Rates 10% (down 1%), Cost of Living 5% (up 2%) and Disapprove Carbon Tax 3% (unchanged).

A group of issues labelled ‘Government, Politics, Immigration & Human Rights issues’ are named by 22% (down 6%) of Australians. Within that group 14% (unchanged) mentioned the Government, the political system, political leadership and Julia Gillard, 4% (down 3%) mentioned Refugees and asylum seekers and 2% (down 2%) mentioned Immigration/ Immigration policy.

Australian views on Problems facing the World

The biggest World problems are clearly Economic & Financial issues (42%, down 5% since January 2012), which remains below the peak of 51% reached three years ago in May 2009. Within the broad group of Economic issues 14% (down 7%) mentioned the Economy, Economic problems, Interest rates; ahead of Poverty & the gap between the rich and poor at 10% (down 3%), Financial problems/ Money issues at 5% (up 1%); Over-population 4% (unchanged) and Unemployment 4% (up 2%) as the most important Economic issues.

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Customer Satisfaction among business customers of the banks fell in April for the second month in a row to 65.1%, down from 65.6% in March 2012. Suncorp now leads the major banks at 67.8% satisfaction, marginally ahead of St George (67.5%). These are the latest findings from the Roy Morgan Business Banking Satisfaction Report.

Westpac is the clear leader of the big four at 66.8% satisfaction, ahead of NAB (64.9%), ANZ (63.9%) and Commonwealth Bank (61.7%).

Despite the drop in the latest month, the satisfaction level of bank business customers is still 3.6% points higher than at this time last year (61.5%), with all of the major banks exhibiting an increase over this period. NAB showed the largest improvement over the last 12 months at 6.3% points closely followed by Westpac at 6.2% points, whilst the leading major bank Suncorp has improved just 0.1% points compared to April 2011.

Business Banking Satisfaction





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Roy Morgan Research has released the State of the Nation Report 11, which looks at the latest Australian trends within society, technology, the environment, politics and the economy. The report focuses a spotlight on ‘Rural Australia’, examining the differences in Australian life between those living in the two regions.

Below is a brief summary of findings included in the spotlight section of the Roy Morgan State of the Nation Report 11.

When it comes to health, a higher proportion of city residents participate in sport and exercise compared to their rural neighbours, whereas those from the country are more likely to smoke and also drink alcohol. A higher proportion of people from the country were also overweight or obese, and they generally suffered from more health problems.

Business confidence is higher in the city, with the ‘utilities, water and waste’ sector the most confident in the city. In the country however ‘mining’ is the most confident industry by a large amount. City businesses are also more likely to increase staff numbers and investment in the near future. As with business confidence, consumer confidence is also higher in the city due to a higher proportion of residents expecting good times financially in the next twelve months.

Unemployment rates tend to be higher in the country, with the younger generation most likely to be unemployed in both regions. Men are more likely to be employed in both city and country.

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