Roy Morgan Research: Latest Federal and State Polls

In August unemployment decreased 19,000 to 718,000 (6.1%) The number of full-time jobs decreased 28,000 to 7,363,000, while part-time jobs increased 144,000 to 3,661,000

Fri, 03 Sep 2010 12:00:00 EST

• In the month of August Australia's total unemployment as measured by Roy Morgan was 718,000 (6.1%), down 19,000 (0.2%) since July, and down 120,000 (1.3%) since August 2009. • Full-time employment for August is 7,363,000 (down 28,000 since July 2010 and down 115,000 since June 2010) and has fallen for the second straight month as more Australians find part-time employment - now 3,661,000 (up 144,000 since July 2010 and up 247,000 since June 2010) - Australian part-time employment is now at a record high. • The rise in part-time employment means in August only 270,000 (down 100,000 on July 2010, and down 135,000 on August 2009) Australians are looking for part-time work - the lowest number looking for part-time work since September 2008 (245,000) at the start of the Global Financial Crisis. Meanwhile there are a rising number of Australians looking for full-time work - 448,000 (up 81,000 on July 2010, and up 15,000 on August 2009). • The latest Roy Morgan August 2010 unemployment estimate is 0.8% above the 5.3% currently quoted by the ABS for July 2010.

Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down slightly on weekend after Election - 123.3

Thu, 02 Sep 2010 12:00:00 EST

Consumer Confidence has fallen slightly to 123.3 (down 1.3pts) since the Federal election, according to the weekly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating conducted on the weekend after the Federal election (August 28/29, 2010). Weekly Consumer Confidence is now 1.4pts higher than a year ago, August 29/30, 2009 (121.9). The small fall in confidence has been driven by a decrease in confidence about Australian economic conditions over the next 12 months and also the next 5 years. In terms of the economy as a whole in the long-term, 40% (down 6%) of Australians expect Australia to have 'good times' economically over the next five years compared to 12% (up 2%) that expect 'bad times' economically. A decreasing number of Australians, 36% (down 2%) say that Australia as a whole will have 'good times' financially during the next 12 months compared to 18% (up 2%) that say we'll have 'bad times' financially in the next 12 months. Of Australians 52% (down 3%) say 'now is a good time to buy' major household items compared to 16% (down 1%) that say 'now is a bad time to buy' major household items. Click here to purchase a detailed "Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report"

Who would make the Better PM? Gillard: Honest, articulate, good education policies... Abbott: Better economic policies, better for business, strong leader...

Tue, 31 Aug 2010 12:00:00 EST

A special telephone Morgan Poll conducted last week asked electors "who would make the Better Prime Minister - Ms. Gillard or Mr. Abbott?" Caretaker Prime Minister Julia Gillard (44%) was favoured over Opposition Leader Tony Abbott (36%) by 8% - however, this is the narrowest margin in favour of Ms. Gillard since she became Prime Minister on June 24, 2010. Respondents who said Julia Gillard would make the 'Better Prime Minister' mentioned that she is 'honest and nice,' 'more trustworthy,' 'has better values,' 'is articulate and has more personality' and 'She's had experience as Deputy Prime Minister,' 'because of her stance on education,' and also that 'Abbott is not quite ready to be Prime Minister,' and that 'Labor is not bad and I don't trust Abbott.' Those respondents who said Tony Abbott would make the 'Better Prime Minister' mentioned that 'Abbott has better policies,' 'The Liberals are better economic managers,' 'Liberals are more fiscally responsible,' 'has more common sense ideas about how to run the country,' and also because of the shortcomings of the ALP - 'don't like what the ALP did to Kevin Rudd,' 'Gillard is more of a puppet,' 'I can't bear Gillard. She is a fool,' and that Tony Abbott 'would be a stronger leader.'

Julia Gillard still Preferred as Prime Minister

Fri, 27 Aug 2010 12:00:00 EST

Prime Minister Julia Gillard (44%, down 4%) is still preferred as Prime Minister over Opposition Leader Tony Abbott (36%, down 1%) according to a special telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the last two nights (August 26/27, 2010). Despite more electors preferring Gillard as Prime Minister, more approve of the way Opposition Leader Tony Abbott is handling his job than Julia Gillard. Now 53%, (up 1% since the telephone Morgan Poll of August 3, 2010) approve of Abbott's handling of his job while 49% (up 3%) approve of the way Julia Gillard is handling her job as Prime Minister. The jump in Abbott's approval rating is driven by a strong increase in women's approval of the Opposition Leader (54%, up 5%) and a lower disapproval rate amongst women (35%, down 5%). A majority of men (52%, down 2%) approve of Abbott's handling of the job compared to 41% (up 4%) that disapprove. Prime Minister Julia Gillard's job approval is up 3% to 49% from August 3, 2010. Gillard's approval by women is (50%, up 4%) and by men (48%, up 3%). Overall, both more women (50%) and men (48%) approve of Gillard than disapprove - women (34%, down 4%); men (40%, down 1%).

Gillard still preferred ALP leader over Rudd But Malcolm Turnbull is preferred as Liberal Leader over Tony Abbott, However L-NP voters clearly prefer Abbott (43%) to Turnbull (25%)

Fri, 27 Aug 2010 12:00:00 EST

• Prime Minister Julia Gillard is still the preferred ALP Leader over former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd although the lead is narrowing. Gillard is preferred as ALP Leader by 35% (down 17% since July 20/21, 2010) of electors ahead of Rudd (25%, up 4%). Other candidates are well behind with Treasurer and Deputy Prime Minister Wayne Swan (5%, down 2%), Foreign Affairs Minister Stephen Smith (9%, up 3%) and Bill Shorten (5%, up 2%) and Jenny Macklin (4%, up 3%). • Former Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull (32%, up 3%) is once again preferred as Liberal Party Leader ahead of current Opposition Leader Tony Abbott (23%, down 1%) and Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey (21%, down 3%). All three candidates are well ahead of Deputy Opposition Leader Julie Bishop (6%, down 2%), Christopher Pyne (3%, up 1%) and Andrew Robb (2%, unchanged). • Amongst Liberal Party voters Opposition Leader Tony Abbott (43%, down 1%) is clearly preferred to Malcolm Turnbull (25%, up 5%) and Joe Hockey (19%, down 3%). Abbott is also well ahead of Deputy Opposition Leader Julie Bishop (5%, down 1%). • If Prime Minister Julia Gillard were to resign for any reason, former PM Kevin Rudd is clearly preferred as ALP Leader (35%, down 2%). Stephen Smith (14%, up 3%) is the next best preferred leader of the ALP, from Wayne Swan (13%, down 7%) and Bill Shorten (9%, up 2%). • If Mr Abbott were to resign as Opposition Leader tomorrow, Mr Turnbull (38%, up 2%) and Joe Hockey (31%, down 2%) are clearly ahead of current Deputy Opposition Leader Julie Bishop (7%, down 5%).

1st Morgan Poll since Election shows Greens, Independents & Others 24% of Primary vote Two-Party preferred Labor (51.5%) just ahead of L-NP (48.5%)

Fri, 27 Aug 2010 12:00:00 EST

The first telephone Morgan Poll conducted since last Saturday's inconclusive Federal election shows the ALP (51.5%, up 1% from the Federal election) just ahead of the L-NP (48.5%, down 1%). The ALP primary vote is 36% (down 2.4% from Saturday's Federal election), clearly behind the L-NP 40% (down 3.6%). Support for the Greens 13% (1.6% higher than at the Federal election) and Others/ Independents 11% (up 4.4%). For the first time since the ALP won the 2007 Federal election more electors (42%, up 24% since August 18/19, 2010) think the L-NP will win the next Federal election compared to only 33.5% (down 26%) who think the ALP will win according to a telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the last two nights. The Morgan Poll was within 0.5% on the Two-Party preferred vote at Saturday's Federal election, well within the 'Margin of Error,' and the Morgan Poll was easily the most accurate on the individual party's share of the vote and was the first to call a 'Hung Parliament' (Saturday August 14, 2010).

Greens and Independents would lose out if another Federal election is called

Mon, 23 Aug 2010 12:00:00 EST

If another Federal election had to be held - support for the Greens would be down 2% as would support for Independents, while both the ALP and L-NP would each gain 2% according to a special sms Morgan 'Re-interview' Poll conducted last night. The primary vote was ALP 40.5% (up 2% from Election Day), L-NP 44.5% (up 2%), Greens 10% (down 2%) and Independents/ Others 5% (down 2%). On a Two-Party preferred basis the vote was similar - ALP 50.5% (down 0.5% on Election Day) and L-NP 49.5% (up 0.5% on Election Day). Gary Morgan says: "Its not surprising, if another Federal election were held soon, that the Greens, Minor parties and Independents vote would come down after Saturday's 'Hung Parliament' result. "The three or four Independents and the Greens will be working hard to ensure there is no need for another election."

Morgan Poll Most Accurate & first to suggest 'Hung Parliament' by Gary Morgan, Michele Levine and Julian McCrann

Sun, 22 Aug 2010 12:00:00 EST

The new Government of Australia will not be known for a few days - due to a 'Hung Parliament.' As of now the 7 NEWS Morgan Poll is easily the most accurate of the 4 major polls. The 7NEWS Morgan Poll Two Party preferred vote had an average error of only 0.3%; the Primary vote average error was only 0.5% - probably our most accurate forecast. The Newspoll Two Party preferred vote had an average error of 0.5%; the Primary vote average error was 1.25%. The Nielsen Two-Party preferred vote had an average error of 1.3%; the Primary vote average error was 1.05%. The Galaxy Two-Party preferred vote had an average error of 1.3%; the Primary vote average error was 1.5%. Below is the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) % vote count as of now compared with the final 7NEWS Morgan Poll released on www.roymorgan.com at 1.26am Saturday morning and released at 7am on Saturday Morning Ch 7 Sunrise (Aug 21, 2010), and again reported just after 10am by Michele Levine on ABC 24 TV.

Election Day 7NEWS Morgan Poll Too close to call - ALP (51.5%) cf. L-NP (48.5%) BUT HUNG PARLIAMENT MOST LIKELY OUTCOME

Sun, 22 Aug 2010 12:00:00 EST

A special 7News Morgan Exit Poll showed support for the ALP at 38.5%, L-NP 41.5%, Greens 13% and 7% Others/Independents. This translates into a Two-Party Preferred vote of 51.5% ALP cf. 48.5% L-NP. Analysis by area shows swings to the L-NP in Western Australia, Queensland and New South Wales and swings to the ALP in Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania.

Special Election Day 7NEWS Morgan Poll - in 3 Key Marginals LIB set to win Lindsay (NSW); ALP set to win La Trobe (VIC); ALP set to win Herbert (QLD)

Sat, 21 Aug 2010 12:00:00 EST

Today's special 7NEWS Morgan Poll conducted by telephone in three key marginals shows: Gary Morgan says: "The ALP is set to win Herbert and La Trobe but not the key NSW ALP held seat of Lindsay. Yesterday we said Lindsay and Greenway could go either way; as they adjoin each other - on today's result Greenway would most likely stay Liberal. "Those who had not yet voted, when surveyed, were overall more likely to be ALP than L-NP voter. "The Greens vote in Lindsay and Herbert is about 3% lower among those who had voted. This suggests that the Greens vote will be lower than reported in national voting intention polls - however it is still likely to be much higher than at the last Federal election. "In Victorian seat of La Trobe the Greens vote will be a record high 17% -there is no difference among those who have or haven't voted. "Some 6% of electors who had voted would not say who they had voted for."

MORGAN POLL SATURDAY MORNING UPDATE Labor still set to win Popular Vote (51% cf. 49%) But 'Hung Parliament' Still Most Likely Outcome

Sat, 21 Aug 2010 12:00:00 EST

Last night the Roy Morgan recontacted 187 'undecided' and Green voters from the 7News Morgan Poll of 1,872 electors conducted on the evenings of Wednesday and Thursday August 18/19, 2010. Just over half the 'undecided' voters gave a preference marginally favouring the L-NP on a Two-Party preferred basis. Of Green voters, more than 80% confirmed their intention to vote Green, the others split 2:1 in favour of the L-NP on a Two-Party preferred basis. Taking these factors into account the primary voting intention is recalculated as ALP 39%, L-NP 42.5%; Greens 11.5% and Independents/ Others 7%. However the Two-Party preferred vote is unchanged at 51% cf. 49% according to the Morgan Poll update conducted last night (August 20, 2010).

Special 7News Morgan Poll finds: Labor set to win Popular Vote (51% cf. 49%) But 'Hung Parliament' Most Likely Outcome

Fri, 20 Aug 2010 12:00:00 EST

One day before the Federal election the ALP primary vote is 38% (down 5.4% since the 2007 Federal election), the L-NP 42% (down 0.1%), the Greens 13% (up 5.2%) and Independent/ Others 7% (up 0.3%). On a Two-Party preferred basis the ALP (51%) is ahead of the L-NP (49%) - a swing of 1.7% to the L-NP since the 2007 Federal election according to the latest 7News Morgan Poll of 1,872 electors conducted on the evenings of Wednesday and Thursday, August 18/19, 2010. Gary Morgan says: "With one day to go the Morgan Poll shows that despite the ALP winning the popular vote - with a reduced majority (51%, down 1.7%) in national vote, - the ALP is likely to lose at least 10 seats (another 4 seats are in the balance - Longman, Greenway, Lindsay and Brand) - creating a hung Parliament with the balance of power in the hands of Independents and Greens. "Labor's primary vote is substantially lower than at the previous Federal election (38%, down 5.4%) so Green preferences are crucial - and given the 'soft' nature of the Green vote an L-NP win is not out of the question. "The Green vote is at a record high (13%). This may be real - a real reflection of the electorate's response to neither major party supporting an Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) and both parties taking a strong stand on illegal 'boat people.' However as we said yesterday, there is a strong likelihood that the Green vote will not be as strong on Election Day.

Labor (52%) just ahead of Coalition (48%) in last weekend's Face-to-Face Morgan Poll Soft Green vote 'KEY' to Federal Election

Thu, 19 Aug 2010 12:00:00 EST

In the latest Face-to-Face Morgan Poll conducted last weekend (August 14/15, 2010) ALP support was 52% (1% higher than the telephone Morgan Poll conducted only on Saturday August 14, 2010) ahead of the L-NP (48%, 1% lower than the telephone Morgan Poll). The closeness in key Marginal seats around Australia, as polled by Roy Morgan in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia means either major party could still win Saturday's Federal election. This Face-to-Face Morgan Poll finds the ALP primary vote is 40% (down 3.4% since the 2007 Federal election), behind the L-NP 43% (up 0.9%), while the Greens are 13.5% (up 5.7%), Family First 1.5% (down 0.5%) and Independents/ Others 2% (down 2.7%). Analysis by Gender Analysis by gender reveals that the 'gender gap' is still working in Prime Minister Julia Gillard's favour with women favouring the ALP (54%) cf. L-NP (46%) while men are evenly split - ALP (50%) cf. L-NP (50%). Analysis by State Analysis by State reveals the L-NP leads clearly in Queensland (56.5% cf. 43.5%) and Western Australia (58% cf. 42%).However the ALP has regained the lead in New South Wales (54% cf. L-NP 46%), and continues to lead strongly in Victoria (55% cf. 45%) and South Australia (57.5% cf. 42.5%).

Maxine McKew behind in Bennelong L-NP 50.5% cf. ALP 49.5% in Special Morgan 'NSW Marginal Seat' Poll

Tue, 17 Aug 2010 12:00:00 EST

A special telephone Morgan Poll conducted tonight (August 17, 2010) in the key NSW Marginal electorate of Bennelong - where Labor's Maxine McKew ousted former Prime Minister John Howard at the 2007 Federal Election - shows Liberal 50.5% (up 1.9%) set to defeat the ALP 49.5% (down 1.9%) - a 1.9% swing since the 2007 Federal Election. Analysis by Gender reveals that in Bennelong the ALP is still benefiting from a 'Gender Gap' with women supporting the ALP 50.5% cf. Liberal 49.5% on a Two-Party preferred basis, but not enough to deliver the seat to Labor. Among men Liberal 51.5% is ahead of the ALP 48.5%. Looking at primary voting intention shows Liberal 46% (up 0.5% since the 2007 Federal Election), clearly ahead of the ALP 40% (down 5.3%). The primary vote of the Greens is 10% (up 4.5%) and Independents/Others 4% (up 0.3%) (The Green vote in Bennelong is the same as the Sydney Metropolitan Green vote (10%) measured last weekend by the Australia-wide Morgan Poll).

Special Morgan 'Victorian Marginal Seat' Poll: ALP set to grab La Trobe & McEwen

Tue, 17 Aug 2010 12:00:00 EST

A special telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the last two nights (August 16-17, 2010) in the key marginal Victorian electorate of La Trobe - won at the 2007 Federal Election by Liberal MP Jason Wood by just 1.01% - shows the ALP 53% set to defeat the Liberals 47% - a 3.5% swing to the ALP since the 2007 Federal election. Last night's special telephone Morgan Poll showed the ALP is also set to pick up McEwen, another Victorian Liberal marginal seat, meaning the ALP looks likely to gain two seats in Victoria although key marginal seats in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia are likely to swing to the Coalition. A special telephone Morgan Poll conducted tonight in Bennelong shows Liberal 50.5% (up 1.9% since the 2007 Federal election) ahead of the ALP 49.5% (down 1.9%) and set to regain the seat lost by former Prime Minister John Howard at the 2007 Federal election. Analysis by Gender reveals that in La Trobe women favour the ALP 54.5% cf. Liberal 45.5%, more strongly than men: ALP 51.5% cf. Liberal 48.5% - a similar result was found last night in McEwen. Labor's selection of Laura Smyth as their La Trobe candidate should help to reinforce female support for the ALP.

All Polls are making sense - but Morgan Polls have been released earlier By Gary Morgan, Michele Levine, & Julian McCrann

Tue, 17 Aug 2010 12:00:00 EST

As the Election Day draws closer trends are crucial and timing is everything - (timing of when a poll is conducted, not when released, is crucial). The Morgan Poll, was the only poll to conduct a complete face-to-face nationwide survey over the weekend of August 7-8, 2010, and therefore the only poll to measure the strength of potential ALP support (57.5% vs. 42.5% L-NP), as the electorate looked forward to a once more united Labor Party - with Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard campaigning together. The Morgan Poll was the first to recognise the swing back to the Coalition (initially in marginal seats (surveyed August 11/12, 2010) and then nationally (August 14, 2010)) when the Gillard-Rudd team failed to deliver on the promise of unity and joint campaigning. Polling in key 'bellwether' marginal seats in Queensland (Leichhardt), New South Wales (Macquarie) and Western Australia (Brand) reported by Michele Levine on Insiders (August 15, 2010) showed a swing of 6.6% to the Coalition in Leichhardt, 3.1% to the Coalition in Macquarie and 3% in Brand.

McEwen ALP 55.5% cf. Liberal 44.5% in Special Morgan 'Victorian Marginal Seat' Poll 'Gender Gap' set to deliver McEwen to Gillard Government

Mon, 16 Aug 2010 12:00:00 EST

A special telephone Morgan Poll conducted tonight (August 16, 2010) in the key marginal Victorian electorate of McEwen - won at the 2007 Federal Election by retiring Liberal MP Fran Bailey - shows the ALP 55.5% set to defeat the Liberals 44.5% - a 5.5% swing since the 2007 Federal Election. Analysis by Gender reveals that in McEwen the ALP is still benefiting from a significant 'Gender Gap' with women supporting the ALP (61%) cf. Liberal (39%) on a Two-Party preferred basis while men are evenly split: ALP (50%) cf. Liberal (50%). The country/city split is apparent in McEwen with the metro areas of Melbourne (Outer Northern suburbs) favouring the ALP 62.5% cf. Liberal 37.5% while the rural areas of McEwen favour the Liberals 51.5% cf. ALP 48.5%. Looking at the primary voting intention shows the ALP 42.5% (up 2.3% since the 2007 Federal Election), clearly ahead of the Liberals 39.5% (down 6.3%). The record high primary vote of the Greens 16.5% (up 7.8%) has increased strongly while Independents/Others are just 1.5% (down 3.8%). The higher Greens vote augurs well for the Greens likelihood of winning the seat of Melbourne (last weekend's Australia-wide Morgan Poll, ALP 51% cf. Liberal 49%, showed a Melbourne metropolitan Green vote of 14.5%).

Cash for Clunkers Scheme Unlikely to Impact the Federal Election

Mon, 16 Aug 2010 12:00:00 EST

The Australian Government's latest carbon reduction policy encouraging people to trade in their old (pre 1995) cars for a new, environmentally friendly option, is unlikely to have a big impact come election day. According to Roy Morgan Research, there are 2.4 million electors in Australia who currently drive a car that was manufactured prior to 1995. Of these, approximately 165,000 drive a car valued at $2,000 or less, equating to 1.2% of the voting population. However, in some marginal seats where every vote counts, like Bass that Labor holds by only 1.1%, the 'cash for clunkers' scheme can only do good for Labor. Electorate Profiles In addition to Roy Morgan standard Profile contents, electorate profiles also include the most important political issues rated by electors in each electorate and which political party or parties' electors believe are better for the each of the issues. Issues include: 1. Reducing taxes. 2. Reducing crime and maintaining law and order. 3. Improving business. 4. Reducing unemployment. 5. Looking after the environment. 6. Open and honest government. 7. The needs of people outside cities. 8. Managing the economy. 9. Improving education. 10. Improving health services and hospitals. 11. Defence and national security. 12. Australia's ageing population. 13. The needs of families. 14. Global warming. 15. Fair workplace and employment regulations. Sample Electorate Profile: Click here to see a sample Roy Morgan Electorate Profile Click here to purchase detailed Roy Morgan Electorate Profiles for all 150 Federal Electorates

Labor (51%, down 6.5%) just ahead of Coalition (49%, up 6.5%) Federal Election set to hinge on last week of Campaign As released on 7News at 6pm tonight

Sat, 14 Aug 2010 12:00:00 EST

Today the ALP support is 51% (down 6.5% since the Face-to-Face Morgan Poll conducted on the weekend of August 7/8, 2010) holding a slim Two-Party preferred lead over the L-NP today 49% (up 6.5%) as the last week of campaigning before next Saturday's Federal Election begins according to today's special telephone Morgan Poll - conducted this Saturday (August 14, 2010). This special telephone Morgan Poll finds the ALP primary vote had fallen to 40.5% (down 2.5%) clearly behind the L-NP 44% (up 7%), while the Greens 12.5% (down 3%), Family First 1% (down 1%) and Independents/ Others 2% (down 0.5%). Analysis by Gender Analysis by gender reveals the 'gender gap' that has worked in Gillard's favour has almost completely disappeared with women slightly favouring the ALP (52%) cf. L-NP (48%) while men are evenly split - ALP (50%) cf. L-NP (50%). Analysis by State Analysis by State reveals the L-NP leads in the key States of New South Wales (52.5% cf. 47.5%); Queensland (53.5% cf. 46.5%) and Western Australia (52.5% cf. 47.5%). The ALP continues to lead strongly in Victoria (58.5% cf. 41.5%) and also leads narrowly in South Australia (52% cf. 48%) and Tasmania (52.5% cf. 47.5%). Analysing these results shows that if the Federal Election had been held today it would have been decided in the marginal seats in NSW, Queensland and WA - and would most likely have resulted in a hung Parliament. The Country Liberal Party (L-NP) should also pick up the Northern Territory seat of Solomon - lost at the 2007 Federal Election. In addition, the Greens would probably win Melbourne and there would be three right-leaning Independents - two from NSW and one from Queensland.

Today, the outcome of the election next Saturday is looking like a hung Parliament; However if the trend to the L-NP continues the Coalition will win

Sat, 14 Aug 2010 12:00:00 EST

Today, Saturday August 14, 2010, the ALP is seen as better than the L-NP for Improving Health Services and Hospitals (ALP 45%; L-NP 32%) and Improving Education (ALP 48%: L-NP 31%). Just over a third (35%) of electors name either health or education as the single issue that concerns them most. However the L-NP is seen as better on the important economic issues - better for Managing the Economy (L-NP 45%: ALP 35%), Reducing the Taxes You and your Family Pay (L-NP 39%: ALP 31%) and Day-to-day Living Costs (L-NP 37%: ALP 32%). The majority (50.5%) of Australian electors name one of the three economic issues as the single issue that concerns them most. On the issue that had so much coverage early in the election campaign - Illegal Boat People and Immigration the L-NP is clearly seen as better - better for Reducing the Number of Illegal Boat People coming to Australia (L-NP 55%; ALP 16%); and better for Managing Immigration and Population Growth (L-NP 46%: ALP 28%). Although only 10% of electors name one of these as their single biggest concern, more than 1-in-5 (21.5%) name one of them in their top two concerns. Only a week out from the election, the relativities and trends in these important issues are critical to understanding the changes being seen in the way Australian electors are intending to vote next Saturday. Today's Morgan Poll shows the ALP still ahead but with only a 2 point lead (ALP 51% to L-NP 49%).