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48,000 jobs created in July, but unemployment up to 10.1% and under-employment virtually unchanged at 9.0%

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 340,321 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 – July 2013 and includes 4,089 face-to-face interviews in July 2013.

In July 2013 an estimated 1.27 million Australians (10.1% of the workforce) were unemployed. This is up 62,000 (0.4%) from last month. The Australian workforce* was 12,563,000 (up 110,000) comprising 7,414,000 full-time workers (down 126,000), 3,882,000 part-time workers (up 174,000) and 1,267,000 looking for work (up 62,000) according to the Roy Morgan monthly employment estimates. These figures exclude people who have dropped out of the workforce and given up looking.

Among those who were employed 1,131,000 Australians (9.0% of the workforce*) working part-time and looking for more work were under-employed. This is 10,000 fewer than a month ago (down 0.2%).

In July an estimated 2.398 million Australians (19.1% of the workforce, up 0.2% from June) were unemployed or under-employed (52,000 more than last month), also much higher (285,000, 1.6%) than 12 months ago in July 2012 (2.1 million).

Of those looking for work an estimated 616,000 Australians (down 12,000) were looking for full-time work, while 651,000 (up 74,000) were looking for part-time work.

The latest Roy Morgan unemployment estimate of 10.1% is a substantial 4.4% more than currently quoted by the ABS for June 2013 (5.7%).

Roy Morgan Unemployed and ‘Under-employed’* Estimate

 

 

 

 

 

 

Unemployed or

‘Under-employed’*

Unemployed

Unemployed looking for

‘Under-employed’*

Full-time

Part-time

2012

‘000

%

‘000

%

‘000

‘000

‘000

%

Jan–Mar 2012

2,143

17.5

1,192

9.7

599

593

951

7.8

Apr-June 2012

2,121

17.4

1,105

9.1

546

559

1,016

8.3

July-Sep 2012

2,120

17.4

1,196

9.8

584

612

924

7.6

Oct-Dec 2012

2,224

18.4

1,182

9.8

569

613

1,042

8.6

2013

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jan–Mar 2013

2,391

19.2

1,352

10.9

703

649

1,039

8.3

Apr-Jun 2013

2,243

18.1

1,176

9.5

588

587

1,067

8.6

Months

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

June 2012

2,100

17.5

1,169

9.7

589

580

931

7.8

July 2012

2,113

17.5

1,171

9.7

522

649

942

7.8

August 2012

2,131

17.3

1,205

9.8

634

571

926

7.5

September 2012

2,116

17.4

1,213

10.0

597

616

903

7.4

October 2012

2,138

17.8

1,163

9.7

579

584

975

8.1

November 2012

2,222

18.1

1,229

10.0

553

676

993

8.1

December 2012

2,354

19.2

1,176

9.6

586

590

1,178

9.6

January 2013

2,395

19.7

1,327

10.9

744

583

1,068

8.8

February 2013

2,473

19.8

1,360

10.9

649

711

1,113

8.9

March 2013

2,305

18.2

1,369

10.8

715

654

936

7.4

April 2013

2,254

18.1

1,154

9.3

508

646

1,100

8.8

May 2013

2,129

17.3

1,168

9.5

629

539

961

7.8

June 2013

2,346

18.9

1,205

9.7

628

577

1,141

9.2

July 2013

2,398

19.1

1,267

10.1

616

651

1,131

9.0

*Workforce includes those employed and those looking for work – the unemployed. # The Gillard Government’s ‘Fair
Work Australia’ Act was implemented on January 1, 2010, replacing the Howard Government’s ‘Work Choices’ Legislation.


Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s Roy Morgan employment estimates provide good news for the Rudd Government with a net 48,000 new jobs created in July meaning 11,296,000 Australians are now employed – a record high number of Australians. This rise in overall employment was driven for the second straight month by a large increase in part-time employment (3,882,000, up 174,000), while full-time employment fell 126,000 to 7,414,000.

“However, today’s Roy Morgan June employment estimates also show Australian unemployment rising by 62,000 to 1,267,000 (10.1%, up 0.4% in a month) while under-employment is virtually unchanged, down 10,000 to 1,131,000 (9.0%, down 0.2%). This means a total of 2.398 million (up 52,000) Australians (19.1%, up 0.2%) are either unemployed or under-employed.

“The Roy Morgan unemployment estimate (10.1%) is significantly higher than the latest ABS unemployment estimate (5.7%) and shows the Australian economy urgently requires additional stimulus as the mining boom slows. The RBA must cut Australian interest rates by at least 0.5% at tomorrow’s monthly interest rate setting meeting to provide the stimulus required to ‘re-start’ the Australian economy and get businesses hiring in greater numbers again.”

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 340,321 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 – July 2013 and includes 4,089 face-to-face interviews in July 2013.

*The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or consultants who are looking for more work. (Unfortunately the ABS does not measure this figure in their monthly unemployment survey.)

 

For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:     

+61 3 9224 5213  

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:       

+61 3 9224 5215  

+61 411 129 093




Unemployment Data Tables

Roy Morgan Research Employment Estimates (2001-2013)

Roy Morgan Research Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates (2007-2013)

Roy Morgan Research vs ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2013)

ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2013)


Roy Morgan July Unemployment Estimate - 10.1%


Roy Morgan June Quarter Unemployment Estimate - 9.5%


Roy Morgan Unemployed & Under-employed Estimate - July 2013 - 19.1%


ROY MORGAN MEASURES REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRALIA

NOT THE ‘PERCEPTION’ OF UNEMPLOYMENT – JUNE 8, 2012

http://www.roymorgan.com/~/media/Files/Papers/2012/20120603.pdf

The Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate is obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section by face-to-face interviews. A person is classified as unemployed if they are looking for work, no matter when.

The results are not seasonally adjusted and provide an accurate measure of monthly unemployment estimates in Australia.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are obtained by mostly telephone interviews. Households selected for the ABS Survey are interviewed each month for eight months, with one-eighth of the sample being replaced each month. The first interview is conducted face-to-face. Subsequent interviews are then conducted by telephone.

The ABS classifies a person as unemployed if, when surveyed, they have been actively looking for work in the four weeks up to the end of the reference week and if they were available for work in the reference week.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are also seasonally adjusted.

For these reasons the Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are different from the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate. Gary Morgan's concerns regarding the ABS Unemployment estimate is clearly outlined in his letter to the Australian Financial Review, which was not published.