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170,000 jobs lost in August but unemployment steady at 10.1% as workforce shrinks by 186,000 to 12,377,000

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 344,309 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 – August 2013 and includes 3,988 face-to-face interviews in August 2013.

In August 2013 an estimated 1.25 million Australians (10.1% of the workforce) were unemployed. This is down 16,000 (0.0%) from last month. The Australian workforce* was 12,377,000 (down 186,000) comprising 7,440,000 full-time workers (up 26,000), 3,686,000 part-time workers (down 196,000) and 1,251,000 looking for work (down 16,000) according to the Roy Morgan monthly employment estimates. These figures do not include people who have dropped out of the workforce and given up looking.

Among those who were employed 1,006,000 Australians (8.1% of the workforce*) were under-employed, i.e. working part-time and looking for more work. This is 125,000 fewer than a month ago (down 0.9%).

In August an estimated 2.257 million Australians (18.2% of the workforce) were unemployed or under-employed. This is down 0.9%, or 141,000 from July, but much higher than 12 months ago in August 2012 (up 126,000, 0.9% from 2.131 million).

Of those looking for work an estimated 631,000 Australians (up 15,000) were looking for full-time work, while 620,000 (down 31,000) were looking for part-time work.

The latest Roy Morgan unemployment estimate of 10.1% is a substantial 4.4% more than currently quoted by the ABS for July 2013 (5.7%).

 

Roy Morgan Unemployed and ‘Under-employed’* Estimate

 

 

 

 

 

 

Unemployed or

‘Under-employed’*

Unemployed

Unemployed looking for

‘Under-employed’*

Full-time

Part-time

2012

‘000

%

‘000

%

‘000

‘000

‘000

%

Jan–Mar 2012

2,143

17.5

1,192

9.7

599

593

951

7.8

Apr-June 2012

2,121

17.4

1,105

9.1

546

559

1,016

8.3

July-Sep 2012

2,120

17.4

1,196

9.8

584

612

924

7.6

Oct-Dec 2012

2,224

18.4

1,182

9.8

569

613

1,042

8.6

2013

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jan–Mar 2013

2,391

19.2

1,352

10.9

703

649

1,039

8.3

Apr-Jun 2013

2,243

18.1

1,176

9.5

588

587

1,067

8.6

Months

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

July 2012

2,113

17.5

1,171

9.7

522

649

942

7.8

August 2012

2,131

17.3

1,205

9.8

634

571

926

7.5

September 2012

2,116

17.4

1,213

10.0

597

616

903

7.4

October 2012

2,138

17.8

1,163

9.7

579

584

975

8.1

November 2012

2,222

18.1

1,229

10.0

553

676

993

8.1

December 2012

2,354

19.2

1,176

9.6

586

590

1,178

9.6

January 2013

2,395

19.7

1,327

10.9

744

583

1,068

8.8

February 2013

2,473

19.8

1,360

10.9

649

711

1,113

8.9

March 2013

2,305

18.2

1,369

10.8

715

654

936

7.4

April 2013

2,254

18.1

1,154

9.3

508

646

1,100

8.8

May 2013

2,129

17.3

1,168

9.5

629

539

961

7.8

June 2013

2,346

18.9

1,205

9.7

628

577

1,141

9.2

July 2013

2,398

19.1

1,267

10.1

616

651

1,131

9.0

August 2013

2,257

18.2

1,251

10.1

631

620

1,006

8.1

*Workforce includes those employed and those looking for work – the unemployed. # The Gillard Government’s ‘Fair
Work Australia’ Act was implemented on January 1, 2010, replacing the Howard Government’s ‘Work Choices’ Legislation.


Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s Roy Morgan employment estimates do not provide much good news for the Rudd Government with only a few days to go before the Federal Election. The overall level of unemployment in Australia is unchanged at 10.1% (1,251,000) in August, although the number of under-employed has dropped to 8.1% - 1,006,000 (down 0.9%, 125,000).

“However, the number of employed Australians has dropped to 11,126,000 (down 170,000). This represents a seven-month employment low and is the lowest level of employment since January 2013 (10,812,000). Driving this fall in employment was a large drop in part-time employment – down 196,000 to 3,686,000. Full-time employment rose slightly, up 26,000 to 7,440,000.

“The fall in employment in August is unusual. Employment has risen in August in five out of the last six years – including in 2010 in the lead-up to the last Federal Election. The continuing high level of unemployment and under-employment in Australia shows the Australian economy urgently requires additional stimulus as the mining boom slows.

“The new Federal Government elected on Saturday must undertake major reforms to Australia’s Industrial Relations (IR) laws to help the private sector and provide the stimulus required to ‘re-start’ the Australian economy and get businesses hiring in greater numbers again. In addition the new Government must take action to eliminate the artificially inflated (non-commercial) wages and benefits paid in the public sector; and tomorrow the RBA must cut Australian interest rates by at least 0.5% at its monthly interest rate setting meeting.”


This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 344,309 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 – August 2013 and includes 3,988 face-to-face interviews in August 2013.

*The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or consultants who are looking for more work. (Unfortunately the ABS does not measure this figure in their monthly unemployment survey.)


For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:     

+61 3 9224 5213  

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:       

+61 3 9224 5215  

+61 411 129 093



Unemployment Data Tables

Roy Morgan Research Employment Estimates (2001-2013)

Roy Morgan Research Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates (2007-2013)

Roy Morgan Research vs ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2013)

ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2013)


Roy Morgan August 2013 Unemployment - 10.1%


Roy Morgan June Quarter 2013 Unemployment - 9.5%


Roy Morgan August Unemployment & Under-employment - 18.2%


ROY MORGAN MEASURES REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRALIA

NOT THE ‘PERCEPTION’ OF UNEMPLOYMENT – JUNE 8, 2012

http://www.roymorgan.com/~/media/Files/Papers/2012/20120603.pdf

The Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate is obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section by face-to-face interviews. A person is classified as unemployed if they are looking for work, no matter when.

The results are not seasonally adjusted and provide an accurate measure of monthly unemployment estimates in Australia.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are obtained by mostly telephone interviews. Households selected for the ABS Survey are interviewed each month for eight months, with one-eighth of the sample being replaced each month. The first interview is conducted face-to-face. Subsequent interviews are then conducted by telephone.

The ABS classifies a person as unemployed if, when surveyed, they have been actively looking for work in the four weeks up to the end of the reference week and if they were available for work in the reference week.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are also seasonally adjusted.

For these reasons the Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are different from the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate. Gary Morgan's concerns regarding the ABS Unemployment estimate is clearly outlined in his letter to the Australian Financial Review, which was not published.