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Electors say Tony Abbott (40%) is ‘Better PM’ than new ALP Leader Bill Shorten (36%)

This special online Morgan Poll was conducted over the last weekend, October 18-20, 2013, with an Australia-wide cross section of 1,169 electors.

New Prime Minister Tony Abbott (40%) is preferred to new ALP Leader Bill Shorten (36%) according to a special online Morgan Poll of 1,169 Australian electors conducted over the weekend (October 18-20, 2013) while a high 24% of electors can’t say.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by gender shows Men clearly prefer Abbott (43%) cf. Shorten (36%) while Women are more evenly split, only slightly preferring Abbott (38%) cf. Shorten (36%).

Gary Morgan says:

“This week’s special online Morgan Poll shows new Prime Minister Tony Abbott (40%) is preferred to new Opposition Leader Bill Shorten (36%) as ‘Better PM’. Men clearly prefer Abbott (43%) cf. Shorten (36%) while women only marginally prefer Abbott (38%) cf. Shorten (36%).

“When electors were asked why they supported each candidate, supporters of Abbott mentioned his greater experience as a politician, his better understanding of the economy and also Shorten’s heavy ties to the union movement. Supporters of Shorten preferred the new Opposition Leader because Shorten is more compassionate, more articulate, more in tune with the needs of working Australians and also because many electors simply don’t believe Abbott is up for the job of being Prime Minister.”

This special online Morgan Poll was conducted over the last weekend, October 18-20, 2013, with an Australia-wide cross section of 1,169 electors.

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Better Prime Minister: Abbott v Shorten

Electors were asked: “Thinking of Mr. Tony Abbott and Mr. Bill Shorten. In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister – Mr. Abbott or Mr. Shorten?”

 

 

Abbott v Rudd

Abbott v Shorten

 

Prime Minister
Kevin Rudd

Prime Minister
Julia Gillard

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd

PM Tony
Abbott

 

 

May 4/5,

2010

May 12/13,

2010

Mar 16/17,

2011

June 11/12,
2013

July 16/17,
2013

Aug 12/13,
2013

Aug 28/29,
2013

Oct
2013

 

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

 

*Rudd/ PM Abbott

53*

49*

59*

50*

52*

46*

43*

40

 

**Abbott/ Shorten

32**

37**

32**

43**

36**

43**

44**

36

 

Rudd/ PM Abbott lead

21

12

27

7

16

3

(1)

4

 

Other / Can’t say

15

14

9

7

12

11

13

24

 

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

 

*These figures refer to Kevin Rudd. **These figures refer to Opposition Leader Tony Abbott.

 

Electors 18+

Analysis by Sex & Age

 

Oct
2013

Men

Women

18-24

25-34

35-49

50-64

65+

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Abbott

40

43

38

31

33

30

42

59

Shorten

36

36

36

39

36

43

34

30

Abbott lead

4

7

2

(8)

(3)

(13)

8

29

Neither/ Can’t say

24

21

26

30

31

27

24

11

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

 

Electors 18+

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

 

Oct
2013

ALP

L-NP

Greens

Palmer

Others

Can’t say

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Abbott

40

5

87

7

30

32

14

Shorten

36

72

3

65

45

35

8

Abbott lead

4

(67)

84

(58)

(15)

(3)

6

Neither/ Can’t say

24

23

10

28

25

33

78

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Electors were then asked: “And why did you say that?”

Electors who preferred Tony Abbott said he was more experienced and had spent a longer time in Parliament than opponent Bill Shorten, he had a better understanding of how the economy worked and the right policies to implement. Electors were also quick to mention Bill Shorten’s links to the unions as a reason to support Abbott.

“He has more experience than Mr. Shorten in politics. He is very measured in his approach.”

“The Prime Minister is more decisive with his policies.”

“Abbott is more in control.”

“Abbott has redefined himself and should be given the opportunity.”

“Tony Abbott has more experience and charisma than Bill Shorten.”

“Tony Abbott has served his apprenticeship.”

“Mr. Abbott is a conservative manager, and not a radical left-wing waster of taxpayers money.”

“Abbott has demonstrated sound leadership and the ability to maintain party discipline.”

“Tony Abbott is far more likely to implement better economic policies.”

“Tony Abbott and his team understand the economy far better than the Opposition.”

“Tony Abbott is starting to show that he has a lot of potential whereas Bill Shorten chops and changes sides.”

“Mr. Abbott is experienced enough to provide the leadership Australia requires.”

“Tony Abbott is an intelligent man of integrity and insight whereas Mr. Shorten has no integrity.”

“Abbott is more down to earth and more concerned about where we’re heading and uses his cabinet.”

“Mr. Abbott, contrary to Labor propaganda has an economics degree and will be a fiscally responsible PM.”

“Bill Shorten is a puppet for the unions.”

“Shorten won’t be able to manage without undue influence from the unions and Labor factions.”

“Shorten is gutless and is being ruled by the unions.”

“Mr. Shorten lies and he has links to people in the unions who have stolen from the average working man.”

“Shorten is totally manipulated by the union movement and the factions within the Labor party.”

“Bill Shorten has been involved in union coverups.”

“Bill Shorten is too involved in the unions.”

“Shorten comes from a union background which I do not at all like the culture of.”

“Because of Bill Shorten’s connection to the unions and his attitude of putting workers before businesses.”

“Bill Shorten is a liar and would be aligned to the unions.”

“Mr. Shorten is a puppet for the unions, just as Julia Gillard was.”

“Shorten still hasn’t proved himself as yet and is very much still far too influenced by the unions.”

“I don’t trust Bill Shorten after what he did to the last two leaders of the ALP.”

“I could never trust Bill Shorten after his behaviour within his own party.”

“I don’t have much respect for Mr. Shorten and I don’t think he should have stood when his mother-in-law is the Governor General.”

“Bill Shorten was mainly responsible for the demise of two elected Prime Ministers and he has a very questionable background in relation to the corruption of Health Services Union officials.”

“I think Shorten is a sleaze and not to be trusted.”

“Because Bill Shorten is only out for Bill Shorten. He orchestrated the demise of both Rudd and Gillard, not to help the country, but only to help himself and his labor cronies to stay in a job. I’m glad he is now the leader as they will stay in opposition much longer as a result.”

“Mr. Shorten doesn’t know what he is talking about and is just like the last two Prime Ministers.”

“Bill Shorten is abrasive and it is doubtful he will unite the Labor Party.”

“Because Bill Shorten is not a man of principle. He is only interested in getting and gaining power.”

“I don’t think Labor can be trusted to keep the same leader. Rudd-Gillard-Shorten etc.”

Electors were then asked: “And why did you say that?”

Electors who preferred Bill Shorten often said the main reason for supporting him was their dislike of Abbott and his arrogance, as well as many commentators who believe Abbott is simply not fit to be Prime Minister, more positive statements about Shorten include that he’s a better negotiator, more educated and more compassionate than Abbott.

“Tony Abbott is a psychopath”

“Tony Abbott is far too arrogant to represent the wide spectrum of Australian society.”

“A monkey could do a better job than Tony Abbott.”

“I don’t like Mr. Abbott’s policies.”

“I feel that Tony Abbott isn’t a really great leader for Australia.”

“Because I dislike Tony Abbott more than Bill Shorten.”

“Tony Abbott is a clown.”

“Mr. Abbott represents all the worst qualities of the conservative right in Australia.”

“I don’t trust Tony Abbott. His views are restrictive.”

“Because Abbott is not leadership material. He is neither articulate or broad-thinking. He seems more concerned with materialistic and moralistic views, not to the benefit of all people.”

“I have no faith whatsoever in Tony Abbott. He’s a terrible front-man for Australia with no public speaking ability.”

“By default, as I don’t believe Tony Abbott makes a good Prime Minister.”

“Anyone is better than Tony Abbott and his views. And that includes Bill Shorten.”

“Abbott is not Prime Ministerial material.”

“I think Tony Abbott isn’t a strong enough leader to make the tough choices Australia needs.”

“He can think for himself, he’s a better negotiator than Abbott.”

“He’s not Tony Abbott. He’s a decent guy who is very calm and can think clearly under pressure.”

“Bill Shorten has a proven record of compassion for all Australians. Abbott has a proven record for zero compassion.”

“Tony Abbott is a knob. A tree would do a better job.”

“I believe Tony Abbott is a consummate liar who did whatever it took to become PM. He has acknowledged this already and his attitude to climate change is archaic and his attitude to asylum seekers is awful.

“Bill Shorten can speak. He can take criticism. He can answer questions posed by people and he is actually competent. Tony Abbott refuses to speak in public and he will not answer questions.”

“I feel that Mr. Shorten would be a better leader because I feel that Tony Abbott is the worst leader ever.”

“Because of Bill Shorten’s track record as a politician. He is very balanced and articulate.”

“Bill Shorten is Labor, and is an intelligent and well-educated man. Tony Abbott is a knob.”

“Bill Shorten seems to have a philosophy for Australia. Tony Abbott simply wants to be Prime Minister and will do or say anything to get there.

“Bill Shorten isn’t my choice for Opposition Leader, but he must be able to do a better job than Tony Abbott.”

“Bill Shorten is a good speaker and I would be proud to see him represent Australia in all situations.”

“Because I have always been a Labor supporter and the Liberals look after business people not workers.”

“Shorten seems to understand ordinary people.”

“Bill Shorten is a man with a vision. He’s come from the grass roots and I don’t think Bill would suffer fools either.”

“Because I trust Shorten while Abbott is a self-serving creep.”

“Bill is pragmatic, a superb negotiator, strategic and has a strong sense of social justice guiding his decisions.”

“Bill Shorten has a much better grasp of modern realities, from economic to environmental.”

“Bill Shorten represents the Labor Party. That’s the first and most important thing.”

“Bill has good ideas for invigorating the Labor Party and the nation. He is young and down-to-Earth in his words.”

“Bill Shorten is obviously a more intelligent and compassionate human being.”


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.

 

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4


For further information:

Gary Morgan:   Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:  Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

 

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

 

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.