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Unemployment now 10.7% in October (up 0.3% in a month)

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 352,274 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 – October 2013 and includes 3,650 face-to-face interviews in October 2013.

In October 2013 an estimated 1.33 million Australians (10.7% of the workforce) were unemployed. This is up 36,000 (0.3%) from last month. The Australian workforce* was 12,465,000 (virtually unchanged – down 2,000) comprising 7,417,000 full-time workers (up 4,000), 3,715,000 part-time workers (down 42,000) and 1,333,000 looking for work (up 36,000) according to the Roy Morgan monthly employment estimates. These figures do not include people who have dropped out of the workforce and given up looking.

Among those who were employed 1,077,000 Australians (8.6% of the workforce*) were under-employed, i.e. working part-time and looking for more work. This is 88,000 more than a month ago (up 0.7%).

In October in total an estimated 2.410 million Australians (19.3% of the workforce) were unemployed or under-employed. This is up 1%, or 124,000 from September, and much higher than 12 months ago in October 2012 (up 272,000, 1.5% from 2.138 million).

Of those looking for work an estimated 726,000 Australians (up 119,000) were looking for full-time work, while 607,000 (down 83,000) were looking for part-time work.

The latest Roy Morgan unemployment estimate of 10.7% is a substantial 5% more than currently quoted by the ABS for October 2013 (5.7%) – the Abbott Government needs to immediately establish a working committee to demand the ABS release the true and complete unemployment figures each month.

Roy Morgan Unemployed and ‘Under-employed’* Estimate

 

 

 

 

 

 

Unemployed or

‘Under-employed’*

Unemployed

Unemployed looking for

‘Under-employed’*

Full-time

Part-time

2012

‘000

%

‘000

%

‘000

‘000

‘000

%

Jan–Mar 2012

2,143

17.5

1,192

9.7

599

593

951

7.8

Apr-June 2012

2,121

17.4

1,105

9.1

546

559

1,016

8.3

July-Sep 2012

2,120

17.4

1,196

9.8

584

612

924

7.6

Oct-Dec 2012

2,224

18.4

1,182

9.8

569

613

1,042

8.6

2013

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jan–Mar 2013

2,391

19.2

1,352

10.9

703

649

1,039

8.3

Apr-Jun 2013

2,243

18.1

1,176

9.5

588

587

1,067

8.6

Jul-Sep 2013

2314

18.5

1,272

10.2

618

654

1,042

8.3

Months

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

September 2012

2,116

17.4

1,213

10.0

597

616

903

7.4

October 2012

2,138

17.8

1,163

9.7

579

584

975

8.1

November 2012

2,222

18.1

1,229

10.0

553

676

993

8.1

December 2012

2,354

19.2

1,176

9.6

586

590

1,178

9.6

January 2013

2,395

19.7

1,327

10.9

744

583

1,068

8.8

February 2013

2,473

19.8

1,360

10.9

649

711

1,113

8.9

March 2013

2,305

18.2

1,369

10.8

715

654

936

7.4

April 2013

2,254

18.1

1,154

9.3

508

646

1,100

8.8

May 2013

2,129

17.3

1,168

9.5

629

539

961

7.8

June 2013

2,346

18.9

1,205

9.7

628

577

1,141

9.2

July 2013

2,398

19.1

1,267

10.1

616

651

1,131

9.0

August 2013

2,257

18.2

1,251

10.1

631

620

1,006

8.1

September 2013

2,286

18.3

1,297

10.4

607

690

989

7.9

October 2013

2,410

19.3

1,333

10.7

726

607

1,077

8.6

*Workforce includes those employed and those looking for work – the unemployed. # The Gillard Government’s ‘Fair
Work Australia’ Act was implemented on January 1, 2010, replacing the Howard Government’s ‘Work Choices’ Legislation.


Gary Morgan says:

“Australian unemployment has risen to 1.33 million Australians (10.7%, up 0.3%) only a month after Tony Abbott was elected as Australia’s new Prime Minister in September - this is the highest since March 2013 when 1.37 million Australians were unemployed. An additional 1.08 million Australians (8.6%, up 0.7%) are under-employed meaning a total of 2.41 million Australians (19.3%, up 1.0%) are either unemployed or under-employed – the highest since February 2013 (2.47 million).

“Australia’s high level of unemployment and under-employment following the Federal Election means the new Coalition Government must undertake urgent reforms to restore the confidence of Australian businesses in the Australian economy to ensure the ‘drivers’ of employment are pointing in the right direction.

“’Stopping the boats’ and repealing the Mining Tax and Carbon Tax are of no concern to the families and households with unemployed and under-employed – 2.41 million Australians (19.3%). This is the reason the Abbott Government has not had a honeymoon – latest Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention shows the L-NP (50%) cf. ALP (50%) on a two-party preferred basis.

“Politicians of all parties continually ignore the true level of unemployment. What is even more disappointing is that most economists and business journalists also ignore this reality – an example is provided here by Tim Colebatch in The Age (Audit must serve public not sectional interests) – October 29, 2013.

“Tim Colebatch is completely wrong when he claims that none of those who designed the Howard Government’s WorkChoices ‘looked after the interests of the workers’. Since WorkChoices stopped in January 2010 real unemployment and under-employment has risen from 1.72 million (14.7%) to 2.41 million (19.3%) today. An increase of nearly 700,000 Australians in under four years (with massive Government spending and 'hand-outs') tells a completely different story than Tim Colebatch would have readers of The Age believe!

“Treasurer Joe Hockey’s decision to abandon 78 tax proposals from previous Governments that were never legislated is a good start to clearing away regulatory red tape that has provided uncertainty to business. However the RBA this week ignored Australia’s unemployed and under-employed by keeping interest rates at a disproportionately higher level compared to the rest of the world.”

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 352,274 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 – October 2013 and includes 3,650 face-to-face interviews in October 2013.

*The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or consultants who are looking for more work. (Unfortunately the ABS does not release this figure in their monthly unemployment survey results.)

For further information: 

Contact

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Gary Morgan:     

+61 3 9224 5213  

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:       

+61 3 9224 5215  

+61 411 129 093


Unemployment Data Tables

Roy Morgan Research Employment Estimates (2001-2013)

Roy Morgan Research Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates (2007-2013)

Roy Morgan Research vs ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2013)

ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2013)


Roy Morgan Unemployment - October 2013 - 10.7%

Roy Morgan Unemployment - September Quarter 2013

Roy Morgan Unemployed & Under-employed - October 2013 - 19.3%


ROY MORGAN MEASURES REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRALIA

NOT THE ‘PERCEPTION’ OF UNEMPLOYMENT – JUNE 8, 2012

http://www.roymorgan.com/~/media/Files/Papers/2012/20120603.pdf

The Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate is obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section by face-to-face interviews. A person is classified as unemployed if they are looking for work, no matter when.

The results are not seasonally adjusted and provide an accurate measure of monthly unemployment estimates in Australia.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are obtained by mostly telephone interviews. Households selected for the ABS Survey are interviewed each month for eight months, with one-eighth of the sample being replaced each month. The first interview is conducted face-to-face. Subsequent interviews are then conducted by telephone.

The ABS classifies a person as unemployed if, when surveyed, they have been actively looking for work in the four weeks up to the end of the reference week and if they were available for work in the reference week.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are also seasonally adjusted.

For these reasons the Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are different from the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate. Gary Morgan's concerns regarding the ABS Unemployment estimate is clearly outlined in his letter to the Australian Financial Review, which was not published.