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Unemployment falls to 10.2% in November (down 0.5% in a month) as full-time employment leading up to Christmas surges to 7,470,000 (up 53,000)

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 356,724 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 – November 2013 and includes 4,450 face-to-face interviews in November 2013.

In November 2013 an estimated 1.27 million Australians (10.2% of the workforce) were unemployed. This is down 65,000 (0.5%) from last month. The Australian workforce* was 12,454,000 (down 11,000) comprising 7,470,000 full-time workers (up 53,000), 3,716,000 part-time workers (virtually unchanged, up 1,000) and 1,268,000 looking for work (down 65,000) according to the Roy Morgan monthly employment estimates. These figures do not include people who have dropped out of the workforce and given up looking.

Among those who were employed 1,136,000 Australians (9.1% of the workforce*) were under-employed, i.e. working part-time and looking for more work. This is 59,000 more than a month ago (up 0.5%).

In November in total an estimated 2.404 million Australians (19.3% of the workforce) were unemployed or under-employed. This is unchanged from October, although much higher than 12 months ago in November 2012 (up 182,000, 1.2% from 2.222 million).

Of those looking for work an estimated 700,000 Australians (down 26,000) were looking for full-time work, while 568,000 (down 39,000) were looking for part-time work.

The latest Roy Morgan unemployment estimate of 10.2% is a substantial 4.5% more than currently quoted by the ABS for October 2013 (5.7%).

 

Roy Morgan Unemployed and ‘Under-employed’* Estimate

 

 

 

 

 

 

Unemployed or

‘Under-employed’*

Unemployed

Unemployed looking for

‘Under-employed’*

Full-time

Part-time

2012

‘000

%

‘000

%

‘000

‘000

‘000

%

Jan–Mar 2012

2,143

17.5

1,192

9.7

599

593

951

7.8

Apr-June 2012

2,121

17.4

1,105

9.1

546

559

1,016

8.3

July-Sep 2012

2,120

17.4

1,196

9.8

584

612

924

7.6

Oct-Dec 2012

2,224

18.4

1,182

9.8

569

613

1,042

8.6

2013

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jan–Mar 2013

2,391

19.2

1,352

10.9

703

649

1,039

8.3

Apr-Jun 2013

2,243

18.1

1,176

9.5

588

587

1,067

8.6

Jul-Sep 2013

2,314

18.5

1,272

10.2

618

654

1,042

8.3

Months

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

October 2012

2,138

17.8

1,163

9.7

579

584

975

8.1

November 2012

2,222

18.1

1,229

10.0

553

676

993

8.1

December 2012

2,354

19.2

1,176

9.6

586

590

1,178

9.6

January 2013

2,395

19.7

1,327

10.9

744

583

1,068

8.8

February 2013

2,473

19.8

1,360

10.9

649

711

1,113

8.9

March 2013

2,305

18.2

1,369

10.8

715

654

936

7.4

April 2013

2,254

18.1

1,154

9.3

508

646

1,100

8.8

May 2013

2,129

17.3

1,168

9.5

629

539

961

7.8

June 2013

2,346

18.9

1,205

9.7

628

577

1,141

9.2

July 2013

2,398

19.1

1,267

10.1

616

651

1,131

9.0

August 2013

2,257

18.2

1,251

10.1

631

620

1,006

8.1

September 2013

2,286

18.3

1,297

10.4

607

690

989

7.9

October 2013

2,410

19.3

1,333

10.7

726

607

1,077

8.6

November 2013

2,404

19.3

1,268

10.2

700

568

1,136

9.1

*Workforce includes those employed and those looking for work – the unemployed. # The Gillard Government’s ‘Fair
Work Australia’ Act was implemented on January 1, 2010, replacing the Howard Government’s ‘Work Choices’ Legislation.


Gary Morgan says:

“Australian unemployment has fallen to 1.268 million Australians (10.2%, down 0.5%) in November. The fall in unemployment was driven by a surge in full-time employment to 7,470,000 (up 53,000) with part-time employment virtually unchanged at 3,716,000 (up 1,000). However, the fall in unemployment was offset by a comparable rise in under-employment to 1.136 million Australians (9.1%, up 0.5%) meaning a total of 2.404 million Australians (19.3%, unchanged) are either unemployed or under-employed.

“Australia’s high level of unemployment and under-employment should be a large concern for the new Coalition Government heading towards Christmas – total unemployment and under-employment is now 182,000 higher than this time last year. Federal Treasurer Joe Hockey’s decision last Friday to reject the proposed ADM investment in Australian grain company Graincorp on national interest grounds is concerning – ADM had pledged to invest hundreds of millions of dollars in the Australian economy.

“Hockey’s decision runs counter to the Abbott Government’s rhetoric upon winning the Federal Election that Australia is ‘open for business’. Already former Howard Government Ministers Peter Costello and Peter Reith have commented that the rejection of ADM’s bid is a worrying sign for foreign investors looking to pour investment dollars into the Australian economy – investment that will help find work for the 2.404 million Australians that are unemployed or under-employed.

“Today’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention confirms the Abbott Government’s honeymoon is already over before it ever began – ALP (51.5%) cf. L-NP (48.5%). For the Abbott Government to regain the initiative it had before the Federal Election it needs to concentrate on the issues that really matter to Australians – Economic and Financial issues (40% in October 2013) including The Economy/ Economic problems/ Interest rates (14%) and Unemployment (9%) according to the latest Roy Morgan qualitative issues research.

“Strengthening the Australian economy and providing jobs to the vast number of Australians looking for jobs are the most important priorities for the Coalition. Recognising the true level of unemployment and under-employment in Australia will allow the Abbott Government to properly reform industrial relations which will allow businesses to increase hiring – and also allow the RBA to reduce Australian interest rates which are still amongst the highest in the world at 2.5%.”

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 356,724 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 – November 2013 and includes 4,450 face-to-face interviews in November 2013.

*The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or consultants who are looking for more work. (Unfortunately the ABS does not release this figure in their monthly unemployment survey results.)


For further information:

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Gary Morgan:     

+61 3 9224 5213  

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:       

+61 3 9224 5215  

+61 411 129 093


Unemployment Data Tables

Roy Morgan Research Employment Estimates (2001-2013)

Roy Morgan Research Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates (2007-2013)

Roy Morgan Research vs ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2013)

ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2013)


Roy Morgan Monthly Unemployment - November 2013 - 10.2%

Roy Morgan Quarterly Unemployment - September Quarter 2013 - 10.2%

Roy Morgan Monthly Unemployment & Under-employment - November 2013 - 19.3%


ROY MORGAN MEASURES REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRALIA

NOT THE ‘PERCEPTION’ OF UNEMPLOYMENT – JUNE 8, 2012

http://www.roymorgan.com/~/media/Files/Papers/2012/20120603.pdf

The Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate is obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section by face-to-face interviews. A person is classified as unemployed if they are looking for work, no matter when.

The results are not seasonally adjusted and provide an accurate measure of monthly unemployment estimates in Australia.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are obtained by mostly telephone interviews. Households selected for the ABS Survey are interviewed each month for eight months, with one-eighth of the sample being replaced each month. The first interview is conducted face-to-face. Subsequent interviews are then conducted by telephone.

The ABS classifies a person as unemployed if, when surveyed, they have been actively looking for work in the four weeks up to the end of the reference week and if they were available for work in the reference week.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are also seasonally adjusted.

For these reasons the Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are different from the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate. Gary Morgan's concerns regarding the ABS Unemployment estimate is clearly outlined in his letter to the Australian Financial Review, which was not published.