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ANZ-Roy Morgan China Consumer Confidence Remains Stable Despite Slowing Growth and Housing Market Uncertainty
May 21 2014
- Finding No.
Consumer Confidence Press Release
The ANZ-Roy Morgan China Consumer Confidence survey elicits respondents' expectations of inflation and prices. Data in May was collected from a sample of 1,000 Chinese aged 14+ (12,000 per annum) by telephone. The survey is conducted in metropolitan and outer urban areas - not only are 1st, 2nd and 3rd Tier cities included, but Tier 4 cities are also surveyed every month. The robust, representative sample is stratified geographically, with quotas controlled by gender and age.
ANZ-Roy Morgan China Consumer Confidence Index remained stable at 152.5 in May, compared with 152.6 in April.
ANZ-Roy Morgan China Consumer Confidence varies in different cities. While Shanghai and Guangzhou remained upbeat, the sentiment in Beijing continued to trend lower. In China’s small and medium cities, consumer confidence generally saw an improvement.
The survey sees a clear declining trend of inflation expectation. In May, the respondents projected China’s price level will rise by 4.0% in the longer term, compared with 5.2% in January and 4.5% in April.
Short term confidence also eroded. The respective sub-index has declined 3.9 percentage points in May to 58.5, compared with 62.4 in April.
ANZ Greater China Chief Economist Li-Gang Liu said:
“The May ANZ-Roy Morgan China Consumer Confidence has shown signs of stabilisation, which could foretell a possible pick up in China’s retail sales. However, a further decline in inflation expectation suggests that domestic demand remains lukewarm. This suggests that the retail sales figure in May will not see a significant boost, either.
"As Chinese enterprises are still facing very high funding costs with a falling profit margin, this implies that the monetary policy condition may have become too tight. We maintain our call that a cut of reserve requirement ratio is necessary. This will provide a strong policy signal to prevent negative sentiment from deteriorating further. By relaxing monetary policy, the government can send a strong signal that it will not sacrifice growth while engaging economic reform.
"Today is the launch of the ANZ-Roy Morgan China Consumer Confidence survey, which compliments the surveys in Australia, New Zealand, and Indonesia. More ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer confidence surveys for other Asia Pacific economies will be forthcoming.”
Click to view the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan China Consumer Confidence Release PDF - May 2014.
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The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.
You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.