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Indonesian Presidential Election ‘going down to the wire’: Jokowi (52%) just ahead of Prabowo Subianto (48%) with a week to go

Finding No. 5665 - This Morgan Poll on Indonesian Presidential voting was conducted in June 2014 with an Indonesian-wide cross-section of 3,117 electors aged 17+. Face-to-face interviews were conducted in all 34 provinces, with effort made to ensure a balanced sample representing the electorate both geographically and demographically. 9% of electors couldn’t say who they support in the Presidential Election.

The Indonesian Presidential Election is too close to call with just a week to go. Long-time favourite Jokowi (52%) holds a narrow lead over Prabowo Subianto (48%) according to the latest Roy Morgan Poll on the Indonesian Presidential Election conducted in June 2014 with 3,117 Indonesian electors.

The table below shows the changing state of Presidential voting intention over the past few months in Indonesia. In the first Morgan Poll conducted after Jokowi announced his candidature in mid-March, the Morgan Poll showed Jokowi well ahead of any alternative with 45% support (and a margin of 30% to Prabowo Subianto – 15%).

At the April Indonesian Legislative Election Jokowi’s PDI-P party won (19.0% of the vote), a much narrower victory than had been expected over other major parties: Golkar (14.8%); Prabowo’s party Gerindra (11.8%), SBY’s party Demokrat (10.2%), PKB (9.0%) and PAN (7.6%).

In May, the first Morgan Poll after the Legislative Election, showed Jokowi (42%) was still the clear leader – but with a margin between him and Prabowo (24%) that had narrowed to 18%. There were still many candidates in the field in May that had a total of 34% support. In June when the only two candidates left were Jokowi and Prabowo, the gap had closed to 4%.

Prabowo clearly gained support from those who were previously supporting other candidates, to a far greater extent than did Jokowi. While Jokowi is still ahead, Prabowo could win if the swing to Prabowo continues in the time that remains before voting day on July 9. The Presidential Election is now too close to call.

Debnath Guharoy says:

"The Prabowo-Hatta camp have worked hard at closing the gap. Today’s media scene in Indonesia is markedly different from the election that brought SBY to office. Just about everybody watches TV regularly and Prabowo and Vice-Presidential candidate Hatta fared well in the debates. Today, nine out of ten electors have a mobile phone, one in three have a smartphone. Those phones must have been very busy, with voters exchanging views and shaping public opinion. A single event in the next seven days – positive or negative – could tip the scales.”

Electors were asked: "Who would you most likely vote for as president in the Presidential election?”

Finding No. 5665 - This Morgan Poll on Indonesian Presidential voting was conducted in June 2014 with an Indonesian-wide cross-section of 3,117 electors aged 17+. Face-to-face interviews were conducted in all 34 provinces, with effort made to ensure a balanced sample representing the electorate both geographically and demographically. 9% of electors couldn’t say who they support in the Presidential Election.

Indonesian Presidential Voting Intention

 

 

Presidential Voting Intention

Presidential Candidates

Oct
2013

Nov
2013

Dec
2013

Jan
2014

Feb
2014

Mar 1-14
2014

Mar 15-30
2014

May
2014

June
2014

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Jokowi (Joko Widodo)

37

41

38

39

40

35

45

42

52

Prabowo Subianto

15

15

14

16

17

18

15

24

48

Other*

48

44

48

45

43

47

40

34

n/a

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

*Other candidates asked previously are – Aburizal Bakrie, Wiranto, Jusuf Kalla, Megawati Sukarnoputri, Dahlan Iskan, Hatta Rajasa, Yusril Ihza Mahendra, Mahfud MD, Surya Paloh, Ani Yudhoyono, Gita Wirjawan, Sri Sultan Hamengkubuwono X, Anies Rasyid Baswedan, Djoko Suyanto, Pramono Edhie Wibowo,dan & Sri Mulyani Indrawati.
No political polling is allowed during the week before an Indonesian Election (April 2014) and no official data for the April 2014 Indonesian Legislative Election was released until early May.


For further information:

Debnath Guharoy:

+62 21 5297 1562

+62 812 1052 622

Ira Soekirman:

+62 21 5297 1562

+62 811 1654 000


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

3,000

±1.8

±1.6

±1.1

±0.8