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Unemployment climbs to 9.9% in September as full-time work lowest since October 2011; 2.2 million Australians looking for work, or more work

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 399,487 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 – September 2014 and includes 5,416 face-to-face interviews in September 2014.

In September 2014:

  • 12,224,000 Australians are in the workforce:
    (up 19,000 since last month August; however down 243,000 since September last year);
  • 11,016,000 Australians are employed:
    (down 125,000 since last month August; and down 154,000 since September last year);
  • 1,208,000 Australians are looking for work (9.9% of the workforce);
    (up 144,000 since last month August; but down 89,000 since September last year);
  • 7,168,000 Australians are employed full-time (the lowest since October 2011):
    (down 279,000 since last month August; and down 245,000 since September last year);
  • Since November 2007 Australia’s population has increased by approximately 2.5 million Australians, and yet only 13,000 new full-time jobs have been created over the past almost seven years.
  • 3,848,000 Australians are employed part-time (the highest since July 2011):
    (up 154,000 since last month August; and up 91,000 since September last year);
  • 1,015,000 Australians are under-employed (working part-time and looking for more hours – 8.3%):
    (down 65,000 since last month August; however this is up 26,000 since September last year).
  • 2,223,000 Australians are unemployed or under-employed (18.2% of the workforce);
    (up 79,000 since last month August; but down 63,000 since September last year);
  • After this month’s fall the latest Roy Morgan unemployment estimate of 9.9% is now a substantial 3.8% higher than the figure currently quoted by the ABS for August 2014 (6.1%).

 

Roy Morgan Unemployed and ‘Under-employed’* Estimate

 

Unemployed or

‘Under-employed’*

Unemployed

Unemployed looking for

‘Under-employed’*

Full-time

Part-time

2013

‘000

%

‘000

%

‘000

‘000

‘000

%

Jul–Sep 2013

2,314

18.5

1,272

10.2

618

654

1,042

8.3

Oct–Dec 2013

2,439

19.5

1,337

10.7

734

603

1,102

8.8

2014

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jan-Mar 2014

2,532

20.0

1,489

11.7

844

645

1,043

8.2

Apr-Jun 2014

2,360

18.9

1,273

10.2

638

635

1,087

8.7

Jul-Sep 2014

2,237

18.2

1,179

9.6

594

585

1,058

8.6

Months

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

July 2013

2,398

19.1

1,267

10.1

616

651

1,131

9.0

August 2013

2,257

18.2

1,251

10.1

631

620

1,006

8.1

September 2013

2,286

18.3

1,297

10.4

607

690

989

7.9

October 2013

2,410

19.3

1,333

10.7

726

607

1,077

8.6

November 2013

2,404

19.3

1,268

10.2

700

568

1,136

9.1

December 2013

2,503

19.8

1,411

11.2

777

634

1,092

8.6

January 2014

2,545

20.0

1,440

11.3

851

589

1,105

8.7

February 2014

2,641

20.8

1,561

12.3

866

695

1,080

8.5

March 2014

2,410

19.1

1,465

11.6

814

651

945

7.5

April 2014

2,387

18.9

1,308

10.4

628

680

1,079

8.5

April 2014**

2,374

19.0

1,299

10.4

629

670

1,074

8.6

May 2014

2,179

17.8

1,186

9.7

603

583

993

8.1

June 2014

2,514

20.1

1,326

10.6

684

642

1,188

9.5

July 2014

2,344

18.9

1,265

10.2

654

611

1,079

8.7

August 2014

2,144

17.6

1,064

8.7

516

548

1,080

8.8

September 2014

2,223

18.2

1,208

9.9

613

595

1,015

8.3

*Workforce includes those employed and those looking for work – the unemployed. **The Roy Morgan employment estimates for May 2014 and going forward are based to a lower estimate of the Australian population aged 14 or more (from 19,365,000 in the original April figures to 19,205,000 for the revised April figures and 19,232,000 in May). The lower Roy Morgan national population estimate is a result of ABS revisions after fully including the results of the most recent ABS Census.


Gary Morgan says:

“Australia’s real unemployment jumped in September to 1.208 million (up 144,000 since August – 9.9%, up 1.2%) – the third year in a row unemployment has increased in September. Driving the rise in unemployment was a large fall in Australia’s full-time employment (7,168,000, down 279,000) – now at its lowest in nearly three years since October 2011 (7,131,000). The fall in full-time employment was only partially offset by a rise in part-time employment (3,848,000, up 154,000). Despite the rise in part-time employment, Australian under-employment fell to 1.015 million (down 65,000 – 8.3%, down 0.5%).

“The Roy Morgan September employment estimates clearly indicate the increasing casualisation of the Australian workforce as part-time employment increases at the expense of full-time employment. Analysing employment trends over a longer-time period shows this even more starkly.

“In November 2007 when Kevin Rudd was elected Prime Minister Australian full-time employment was 7,155,000 (70.7% of employed Australians) and part-time employment was 2,970,000 (29.3%). Since November 2007 full-time employment has increased 13,000 to 7,168,000 (65.1% of employed Australians) and part-time employment has increased 878,000 to 3,848,000 (34.9%). The ABS shows that Australia’s population was 21 million in mid-2007, latest estimates show an Australian population of 23.6 million todayan increase of over 2.5 million Australians – but only 13,000 new full-time jobs.

That is a shift of over 5% of employed Australians from full-time work to part-time work. This large change in the composition of the Australian workforce also underlines why it is a mistake to concentrate only on the unemployment estimates (which are understated on a monthly basis by the ABS). The increasing level of under-employment in Australia is woefully ignored.

“The overall picture of the Australian labour market shows an economy with a large amount of under-utilised labour – now 2.22 million Australians (18.2%) are either unemployed or under-employed. This is the 34th straight month more than 2 million Australians have been looking for work or looking for more work and the 28th straight month more than 1 million Australians have been unemployed.

“The issue of Australia’s under-utilised labour is the single most important issue the Abbott Government needs to address to stand a change of re-election in two years’ time – however the Government doesn’t appear as serious as it needs to be in addressing the issue. The best way for the Government to reduce Australia’s continuing high level of unemployment and under-employment is to provide a healthy and growing economy and introduce laws to increase labour market productivity. Doing this will entice Australians who have ‘given up’ looking for a job back into the labour force to find gainful employment.”

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 399,487 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 – September 2014 and includes 5,416 face-to-face interviews in September 2014.

*The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or consultants who are looking for more work. (Unfortunately the ABS does not release this figure in their monthly unemployment survey results.)


For further information: 

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:     

+61 3 9224 5213  

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:       

+61 3 9224 5215  

+61 411 129 093


Unemployment Data Tables

Roy Morgan Research Employment Estimates (2001-2014)

Roy Morgan Research Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates (2007-2014)

Roy Morgan Research vs ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2014)

ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2014)


Roy Morgan Unemployment - September 2014 - 9.9%

Roy Morgan September Quarter Unemployment - 9.6%

Roy Morgan September Under-employment - 18.2%


ROY MORGAN MEASURES REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRALIA

NOT THE ‘PERCEPTION’ OF UNEMPLOYMENT – JUNE 8, 2012

http://www.roymorgan.com/~/media/Files/Papers/2012/20120603.pdf

The Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate is obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section by face-to-face interviews. A person is classified as unemployed if they are looking for work, no matter when.

The results are not seasonally adjusted and provide an accurate measure of monthly unemployment estimates in Australia.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are obtained by mostly telephone interviews. Households selected for the ABS Survey are interviewed each month for eight months, with one-eighth of the sample being replaced each month. The first interview is conducted face-to-face. Subsequent interviews are then conducted by telephone.

The ABS classifies a person as unemployed if, when surveyed, they have been actively looking for work in the four weeks up to the end of the reference week and if they were available for work in the reference week.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are also seasonally adjusted.

For these reasons the Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are different from the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate. Gary Morgan's concerns regarding the ABS Unemployment estimate is clearly outlined in his letter to the Australian Financial Review, which was not published.