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Newly Inaugurated Indonesian President Jokowi (51%) maintains popularity while Presidential opponent Prabowo (31%) slips back

Finding No. 5907 - This Morgan Poll on Indonesian Presidential and Parliamentary voting intention was conducted in October 2014 with an Indonesian-wide cross-section of 2,374 electors aged 17+. Face-to-face interviews were conducted in all 34 provinces, with effort made to ensure a balanced sample representing the electorate both geographically and demographically. Less than 1% of electors in both polls couldn’t say who they support.

Newly inaugurated Indonesian President Jokowi (51%, down 2% since the Indonesian Presidential Election held in early July) retains the support of over half the Indonesian electorate following his inauguration in late October according to the latest Roy Morgan Poll on the Indonesian Presidency conducted in October 2014 with 2,321 Indonesian electors aged 17+.

Although Jokowi’s Presidential support is virtually unchanged from the Presidential Election result, and the final Roy Morgan Presidential Poll result five months ago, the new President is now well ahead of Presidential Election opponent Prabowo Subianto (31%, down 16%) while other candidates now attract 18% support (up 18%).

Legislature Voting Intention – October 2014

Today’s Morgan Poll shows a large boost in support to Jokowi’s political party – the PDI-P (40%, up a massive 21% since the April Indonesian Legislative Election) now well ahead of Prabowo’s party Gerindra (20%, up 8%). The large increase in support for the PDI-P clearly indicates the strong positive impact of Jokowi’s victory at July’s Presidential Election.

All other parties have lost support to varying degrees: Golkar (12%, down 3%); party Demokrat of former Indonesian President SBY (8%, down 2%); PKS (5%, down 2%); PAN (5%, down 3%); PPP (3%, down 3%); Hanura (2%, down 3%); NasDem (2%, down 5%); PKB (2%, down 7%); PBB (1%, unchanged) and PKPI (0%, down 1%) according to the latest Roy Morgan Poll on Indonesian Legislative Voting Intention conducted in October 2014 with 2,374 Indonesian electors aged 17+. 

Electors were asked: "If general elections for members of DPR were held now, which party's candidate would you vote for?" And for the Presidential poll "Who would you most likely vote for as president in the next general election?”

Finding No. 5907 - This Morgan Poll on Indonesian Presidential and Parliamentary voting intention was conducted in October 2014 with an Indonesian-wide cross-section of 2,374 electors aged 17+. Face-to-face interviews were conducted in all 34 provinces, with effort made to ensure a balanced sample representing the electorate both geographically and demographically. Less than 1% of electors in both polls couldn’t say who they support.

 

The Jokowi Era

Speaking at the launch of the Roy Morgan Poll results at the Australia Indonesia Business Council (AIBC) sponsored by Roy Morgan Research, PWC, RMIT, The University of Melbourne and the Australia-Indonesia Centre.


Debnath Guharoy, Roy Morgan Regional Director Asia, National President, AIBC says:

“The election of Joko WIdodo, ‘Jokowi’, to be Indonesia’s new President earlier this year, presents Australia and Australian businesses in particular, with an opportunity. The Jokowi administration has a key interest in promoting inward foreign investment into Indonesia. Foreign investment has been one of the key building blocks of the vibrant young democracy we see in Indonesia today, and the Jokowi administration is determined to grow this investment even further and continue Indonesia’s rapid development into a major world economy.

“The importance of the Indonesian economy is already recognised through Indonesia’s membership of the Group of 20 which meets in Brisbane next week. The Group of 20 brings together the leaders of the world’s largest and most important economies to discuss the key issues of concern for the global economy. Indonesia’s membership of this forum shows the importance the rest of the world places in Indonesia.

“For Australia to truly benefit from the growing Indonesian economy Australian political and business leaders must reach out to their Indonesian counterparts and find common ground to work on – of which there is plenty for the two South East Asian neighbours. The Jokowi administration will encourage inward investment into Indonesia from whomever is willing to offer it. However, if Australian businesses fail to offer the investment, Indonesia will find investment from elsewhere, and the vast opportunities that are on offer will be missed.”

A link to Debnath Guharoy's Presentation - The Jokowi Era.


Professor Andrew McIntyre, Deputy Vice-Chancellor International & Vice-President RMIT says:

“Media headlines in recent weeks have claimed that Jokowi has failed his first Test with the appointments he has made to his cabinet.  This is a misplaced assessment arising from an inappropriate test. It is quite unrealistic to expect that Jokowi could ignore the constellation of political actors and wider interests that brought him to power and simply appoint a Cabinet stacked with apolitical technocratic experts.  Politics does not work like that anywhere.

“Indonesia has a fragmentary system of government, combining elements of presidential and parliamentary frameworks with the added complexity of shifting multiparty system and permeated by corrupt practices. It is an inherently difficult system to manage. And yet it has so far worked in tolerably effective ways - as demonstrated by the country's continued, albeit uneven, economic and social progress. 

“Although it will face an array of major political and economic challenges, I expect Jokowi's government will continue the pattern of tolerable effectiveness. On the issues that matter most for local and foreign businesses, Jokowi "gets it".”


Professor Tim Lindsey, Malcolm Smith Professor of Asian Law, Director, Centre for Indonesian Law, Islam and Society Associate Director (Indonesia), Asian Law Centre says:

“Jokowi finds himself facing three main challenges in ensuring that his Presidency is a success.

1) His Presidential Election opponent Prabowo Subianto controls over half of the Indonesian legislature with his Red-White coalition and Prabowo is determined to roll back the reforms undertaken in Indonesia in recent years for the benefit of his supporters - who include many of Indonesia's traditional business and political elite.

2) The massive internal frictions within the PDI-P which has its own tawdry history of corruption. The PDI-P is of course the party of dynastic succession, led by party boss, and former Indonesian President, Megawati Sukarnoputri. Sukarnoputri still exercises a great deal of power within the PDI-P and dealing with her extensive power base will be one of Jokowi's most formidable challenges.

3) The populace of Indonesia has placed a great deal of faith and has enormously high hopes for Jokowi to deliver far-reaching and important reforms - including extensive anti-corruption measures and also significant and far-reaching reforms to improve the lot of Indonesia's poor and middle classes.

“Public expectations are that Jokowi will deliver reforms and results - and quickly. Jokowi probably has about six months, and at most a year, to start delivering results upon what he promised in his Presidential campaign.”


Indonesian Presidential Voting Intention

 

 

Presidential Voting Intention

Presidential Candidates

May
2014

June
2014

Indonesian Presidential Election (Final Result)

October
2014

%

%

%

%

Jokowi (Joko Widodo)

42

52

53

51

Prabowo Subianto

24

48

47

31

Other*

34

n/a

n/a

18

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

*Other candidates asked are – Aburizal Bakrie, Wiranto, Jusuf Kalla, Megawati Sukarnoputri, Dahlan Iskan, Hatta Rajasa, Yusril Ihza Mahendra, Mahfud MD, Surya Paloh, Ani Yudhoyono, Gita Wirjawan, Sri Sultan Hamengkubuwono X, Anies Rasyid Baswedan, Djoko Suyanto, Pramono Edhie Wibowo & Sri Mulyani Indrawati.

Indonesian Legislative Voting Intention

Parliamentary Voting Intention

Political Parties

Indonesian Legislative Election
(Final Result)

October 2014

%

%

PDI-P

19

40

Gerindra

12

20

Golkar

15

12

Demokrat

10

8

PKS

7

5

PAN

8

5

PPP

6

3

Hanura

5

2

NasDem

7

2

PKB

9

2

PBB

1

1

PKPI

1

0

TOTAL

100

100


For further information:

Debnath Guharoy:

+62 21 5297 1562

+62 812 1052 622


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

3,000

±1.8

±1.6

±1.1

±0.8