The ANZ-Roy Morgan China Consumer Confidence survey elicits respondents' expectations of inflation and prices. Data in January was collected from a sample of 1,000 Chinese aged 14+ (12,000 per annum) by telephone. The survey is conducted in metropolitan and outer urban areas - not only are 1st, 2nd and 3rd Tier cities included, but Tier 4 cities are also surveyed every month. The robust, representative sample is stratified geographically, with quotas controlled by gender and age.
- ANZ-Roy Morgan China Consumer Confidence Index declined by 3.6pts to 151.8 in January 2015. This is the second consecutive month of decline and the index has fallen below the 2014 average level of 152.0.
- In January, in terms of personal finances, 49.0% (down 4.8ppts from December) of respondents say that their families are ‘better off’ financially compared with the same time last year. The number of respondents who said they are ‘worse off’ doubled to 10.0% (up 4.7ppts). For the outlook for the financial condition next year, 57.6% (down 1.6ppts) of respondents expect their families to be ‘better off’ financially, while 5.5% (up 2.1ppts) expect conditions to be ‘worse off’.
- For economic conditions, 70.4% (down 1.0ppt from December) of respondents expect that China will have ‘good times’ next year, compared with 7.7% (up 2.0ppts) that expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, sentiments for longer-term economic performance fell marginally, as 73.4% (down 0.4ppt) expect that China will have ‘good times’ over longer time and 7.7% (up 2.5ppts) say there will be ‘bad times’.
- By geography, consumer confidence fell in 11 cities while increasing in 3 others. Consumer Confidence in Beijing and Guangzhou fell 10.7pts and 6.1pts respectively. Meanwhile, consumer confidence in Shanghai rose 5.9pts.
- Inflation expectation fell to 3.9% (down 0.2ppt), running below 4% for the first time since 2014.
ANZ’s Chief Economist for Greater China Li-Gang Liu:
“The continuous decline in consumer confidence contrasted the rising A-share, suggesting that the rally in stock market has not been translated into financial gains for most households. This is reflected in the decline in the sub-indices for personal finances.
"ANZ-Roy Morgan Chinese Consumer Confidence on the economic outlook remained soft on the back of the current economic slowdown, as the economy expanded 7.4% y/y in 2014, missing the official growth target for the first time since 1998. However, the silver lining is that services industry, which is now bigger than the manufacturing industry, accelerated and the contribution to GDP growth from services industry has also exceeded that from manufacturing sector since the beginning of 2014, reflecting that a structural change is under way. This suggests that China’s economy, though still at its earliest stage, has been shifting towards consumption driven and increasingly service sector led growth model.
"Meanwhile, slower growth in domestic demand with a relatively strong currency will exacerbate the ongoing dis-inflation process. CPI inflation will continue to trend lower and PPI inflation will likely remain in negative territory at least for the first half of 2015. As growth slows and dis-inflation continues, further easing in the monetary policy can be expected. An eased monetary policy will facilitate Chinese corporates to de-leverage and reduce rising default risk. In addition, an accommodative monetary policy will also facilitate the ongoing structural reforms.”
Click to view the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan China Consumer Confidence Release PDF - January 2015.
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