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ALP gains in second survey of 2015 as Shorten tries to revive the Australian Republic debate

Finding No. 6043 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing last weekend, January 23-27, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,057 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2.5% did not name a party.

ALP support rose to 56.5% (up 2%) on Australia Day weekend, well ahead of the L-NP 43.5% (down 2%) on a two-party preferred basis.  If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would win easily according to this week’s Morgan Poll on voting intention conducted with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,057 Australian electors aged 18+.

Primary support for the ALP rose to 39.5% (up 1%) now ahead of the L-NP 37.5% (down 1%). Support for the other parties shows The Greens at 12% (up 2.5%), Palmer United Party (PUP) 3% (up 1%) while Independents/ Others were down 3.5% to 8%.

Support for PUP is highest in Clive Palmer’s home State of Queensland (7%) – which faces a State Election this weekend and Western Australia (4%) with negligible support for PUP in other States.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows support is still higher for the ALP amongst women:  ALP (59.5%, up 3.5%) cf. L-NP (40.5%, down 3.5%).  Support is also higher amongst men for the ALP (54%, up 1%) compared to the L-NP (46%, down 1%).

Analysis by Age group

Analysis by Age group shows the ALP still with its strongest advantage among younger Australians. 18-24yr olds heavily favour the ALP 63.5% cf. L-NP 36.5%; 25-34yr olds also heavily favour the ALP 70.5% cf. L-NP 29.5%; 35-49yr olds favour the ALP 61% cf. L-NP 39%; 50-64yr olds ALP 54.5% cf. L-NP 45.5%; and those aged 65+ still favour the L-NP 60% cf. ALP 40%.

Analysis by States

The ALP maintains a two-party preferred lead in all Australian States except Western Australia. South Australia: ALP 66% cf. L-NP 34%; Tasmania: ALP 63.5% cf. L-NP 36.5%; Victoria: ALP 59.5% cf. L-NP 40.5%; New South Wales: ALP 58% cf. L-NP 42%; Queensland: ALP 50.5% cf. L-NP 49.5%, while the L-NP leads narrowly in Western Australia:  L-NP 51% cf. ALP 49%.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is up slightly to 94pts (up 1pt) this week. Now 43.5% (down 0.5%) of Australians say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction and only 37.5% (up 0.5%) say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll. The Morgan Poll asks Minor Party supporters which way they will vote their preferences. *News Corp’s poll does not measure or reference the PUP vote!

The Morgan Poll allocated preferences based on how people say they will vote – allocating preferences by how electors voted at the last Federal Election, as used by News Corp’s poll* shows the ALP (55.5%) cf. L-NP (44.5%) – for trends see the Morgan Poll historic data table.

Gary Morgan says:

“The ALP 56.5% (up 2%) has increased its lead over the L-NP 43.5% (down 2%) on a two-party preferred basis on the Australia Day long weekend. Over the weekend Opposition Leader Bill Shorten took the chance to raise the possibility of Australia becoming a Republic more than fifteen years after Australians voted against becoming a Republic in a November 1999 Referendum.

“However, a look at community attitudes shows support for the Royal Family has increased since 1999. A special telephone Morgan Poll conducted in November 2012 shows a majority of Australians (52%) support Australia retaining the Monarchy compared to only 42% that say Australia should become a Republic with an elected President.

“However, despite this strong support for the Monarchy, Prime Minister Tony Abbott has received a great deal of criticism over the past few days for his decision to award Prince Philip, husband of Queen Elizabeth II, a knighthood as part of the Australia Day honours. Abbott has even attracted criticism from senior Ministers in his Government including Finance Minister Mathias Cormann and Agriculture Minister Barnaby Joyce.

“However, the discussion about a knighthood for Prince Philip is really a sideshow to the really important issues that face the Abbott Government including the high number of Australians looking for work and looking for more work. The latest Roy Morgan December 2014 employment estimates show Australian unemployment of 1.4 million (10.9%) and an additional 1.2 million under-employed (9.7%).

“In addition, today’s very low ABS CPI figures – only 0.2% in the December Quarter 2014 and only 1.7% for the last 12 months – show the Australian economy is slowing down rapidly. Finally, the true state of Australia’s economy is slowly being revealed by the official measures. Next Tuesday the RBA meets for the first time in 2015 and must drop interest rates by 1% to help stimulate the Australian economy – something we have been calling for at Roy Morgan for over two years even though the RBA has left interest rates unchanged now for 18 months.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference?”

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 6043 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing last weekend, January 23-27, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,057 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2.5% did not name a party.


For further information:

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Data Tables


Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - January 28, 2015

Roy Morgan GCR

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0