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ANZ-Roy Morgan China Consumer Confidence Fell Sharply in February
February 18 2015
- Finding No.
Consumer Confidence Press Release
The ANZ-Roy Morgan China Consumer Confidence survey elicits respondents' expectations of inflation and prices. Data in February was collected from a sample of 1,000 Chinese aged 14+ (12,000 per annum) by telephone. The survey is conducted in metropolitan and outer urban areas - not only are 1st, 2nd and 3rd Tier cities included, but Tier 4 cities are also surveyed every month. The robust, representative sample is stratified geographically, with quotas controlled by gender and age.
ANZ’s Chief Economist for Greater China, Li-Gang Liu, said:
- ANZ-Roy Morgan China Consumer Confidence Index declined by 6pts to 145.8 in February 2015. This is the third consecutive month of decline and the lowest level for the index on record.
- In February, in terms of personal finances, 43.9% (down 5.1ppts from January) of respondents said that their families are ‘better off’ financially compared with the same time last year. The number of respondents who said they are ‘worse off’ edged down to 9.0% (down 1.0ppt). For the outlook for financial conditions next year, 54.9% (down 2.7ppts) of respondents expect their families to be ‘better off’, while 5.1% (down 0.4ppt) expect conditions to be ‘worse off’.
- For economic conditions, 64.3% (down 6.1ppts) of respondents expect China to have ‘good times’ next year, compared with 11.0% (up 3.3ppts) who expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, on longer-term economic performance, 69.7% (down 3.7ppts) expect China to have ‘good times’ and 11.1% (up 3.4ppts) said there will be ‘bad times’.
- By geography, consumer confidence fell in 11 cities while increasing in only 3 others. Consumer confidence in Shanghai and Guangzhou fell 13.2pts and 1.2pts respectively. Meanwhile, consumer confidence in Beijing rose 7.3pts.
- Inflation expectations rose to 4.2% (up 0.4ppt), despite the sharp decline in actual CPI inflation in January to 0.8% y/y.
“China’s ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence continued to slide in February, with all five sub-indices falling across the board. Households are turning gloomier about their financial conditions on the back of a soft economic outlook, weak property market and retracement of the stock market. The index for current financial conditions fell to an all-time low in February, and the index for future financial conditions also declined to the lowest level in seven months, reflecting rising concerns on household and personal finance.
"While inflation expectations rose in February, the risk of deflation is still on the table, as January CPI inflation eased to just 0.8% y/y, below 1% for the first time since November 2009. The weak inflation profile suggests that deflation has become a real risk for China, thus paving the way for further monetary policy easing. We believe that the PBoC will cut the RRR by another 100bps and cut the deposit rates by 50bps this year.”
Click to view the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan China Consumer Confidence Release PDF - February 2015.
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