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ALP lead trimmed but still hold clear election winning lead as leaks emerge to damage Abbott’s leadership

Finding No. 6085– This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends, February 14/15 & 21/22, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,639 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2.5% did not name a party.

ALP support was 56% (down 1.5%) and well ahead of the L-NP 44% (up 1.5%) on a two-party preferred basis.  If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would win easily according to this week’s Morgan Poll on voting intention conducted over the last two weekends, February 14/15 & 21/22, 2015, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,639 Australian electors aged 18+.

Primary support for the ALP fell to 40.5% (down 1%) ahead of the L-NP 37.5% (up 2%). Support for the other parties shows The Greens at 10% (down 2%), Palmer United Party (PUP) 2% (unchanged) while Independents/ Others were up 1% to 10%.

Support for PUP is highest in Clive Palmer’s home State of Queensland (4%) followed by Victoria (3%) with little support in all other states.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is up slightly to 90pts (up 1pt) this week. Now 44.5% (down  1%) of Australians say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction and only 34.5% (unchanged) say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ – the equal lowest number of Australians saying this since June 2013 just before Julia Gillard was removed as Prime Minister and replaced by Kevin Rudd.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender now shows little difference in support but is still higher for the ALP amongst women:  ALP 56.5% (down 2.5%) cf. L-NP 43.5% (up 2.5%). Support amongst men for the ALP is 55.5% (down 1%) cf. L-NP 44.5% (up 1%).

Analysis by Age group

Analysis by Age group shows the ALP still with its strongest advantage among younger Australians. 18-24yr olds heavily favour the ALP 63% cf. L-NP 37%; 25-34yr olds also heavily favour the ALP 69.5% cf. L-NP 30.5%; 35-49yr olds favour the ALP 58.5% cf. L-NP 41.5%; 50-64yr olds ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47%; and those aged 65+ still favour the L-NP 56.5% cf. ALP 43.5%.

Analysis by States

The ALP maintains a two-party preferred lead in all Australian States. Tasmania: ALP 60.5% cf.  L-NP 39.5%; Queensland: ALP 60% cf. L-NP 40%; Victoria: ALP 59% cf. L-NP 41%; South Australia: ALP 58% cf. L-NP 42% and much closer in both New South Wales: ALP 51.5% cf. L-NP 48.5% and Western Australia: ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49%.  

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll. The Morgan Poll asks Minor Party supporters which way they will vote their preferences. *News Corp’s poll does not measure or reference the PUP vote!

The Morgan Poll allocated preferences based on how people say they will vote – allocating preferences by how electors voted at the last Federal Election, as used by News Corp’s poll* shows the ALP (55%) cf. L-NP (45%) – for trends see the Morgan Poll historic data table.

Gary Morgan says:

“The ALP 56% (down 1.5%) has maintained a strong lead over the L-NP 44% (up 1.5%) on a two-party preferred basis as damaging leaks continue to emerge concerning Prime Minister Tony Abbott and also his chief of staff Peta Credlin.

“Abbott’s judgment has been brought into question by suggestions in The Australian that last November he advocated unilaterally sending up to 3,500 Australian military personnel into Iraq to fight the Islamic State (ISIS). Abbott has dismissed the allegation as ‘fanciful’ and ‘false’.

“In addition, the position of Abbott’ chief of staff Peta Credlin has been called into question today after the leaking of an internal email by the Liberal Party’s honorary federal treasurer Philip Higginson. Higginson suggested there was a definite ‘conflict of interest’ for the Liberal Party to have a married couple (Ms. Credlin and her husband Brian Loughnane, the Liberal Party Federal Director) in two such crucial positions within the party structure.

“Abbott has also dismissed this as an issue saying ‘I stand by my team, I stand by my cabinet colleagues, my parliamentary colleagues, I stand by my staff, I certainly have full confidence in the party president, the party's federal director.’ Even though Abbott is clearly intent on ‘toughing out’ these leaks, the fact that these leaks are emerging suggests there is a level of disunity within the Federal Liberal Party at the moment in regards to Abbott’s Prime Ministership.

“The next test for Prime Minister Abbott is the NSW State Election – due in just over a month. NSW Liberal Premier Mike Baird currently enjoys widespread support in NSW – last week’s SMS State Morgan Poll showed Baird has a personal approval rating of 66.5% cf. ALP Leader Luke Foley 33.5% and the L-NP (55.5%) cf. ALP (44.5%) enjoy a sizeable two-party preferred lead. While the L-NP Government leads in this Morgan Poll and other polls electors do change their minds - the Morgan Poll was the only poll in the recent Queensland election to show the Queensland election was too close to call - Newspoll, Galaxy and ReachTel all wrongly said the LNP would win! 

"Unlike the two recent State Elections in Queensland & Victoria, Abbott will be forced to campaign in NSW as he lives there! A close result, or a loss, would increase the pressure on Abbott once again.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference?”

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 6085– This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends, February 14/15 & 21/22, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,639 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2.5% did not name a party.


For further information:

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Data Tables


Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - February 24, 2015

Roy Morgan GCR

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0