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ANZ-Roy Morgan Taiwan Consumer Confidence Inched Down

The monthly ANZ-Roy Morgan Taiwan Consumer Confidence Index is based on 1,000 telephone interviews conducted throughout Taiwan. Men and women aged 14 and over were randomly selected during the month of April 2015.
HIGHLIGHTS

  • ANZ-Roy Morgan Taiwan Consumer Confidence decreased to 100.2 (down 1.5pts) in April but was still well above its previous 12-month average of 92.0.

  • In terms of personal finances, 8% (down 3.2ppts) of respondents said their families are ‘better off’ financially from this time last year, compared to 27.7% (down 1.8ppts) that said their families are ‘worse off’ (a new record low). Meanwhile, 16.8% (down 2.2ppts) of respondents expected their families will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year compared to 17.8% (down 0.8ppt) that expected their families will be ‘worse off’ financially (a new record low).

  • In addition, 34.7% (down 5.5ppts) of respondents expected Taiwan will have ‘good times’ economically over the next 12 months while just 18.1% (up 0.7ppt) of respondents expected ‘bad times’ economically. Over the longer term, 29.1% (down 3.8ppts) of respondents expected Taiwan to have ‘good times’ economically, and only 14% (down 2.1ppts) of respondents expect Taiwan to have ‘bad times’ , which was a record low.

  • Only 14% (up 0.8ppt) of respondents said that now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items in Taiwan, while 23.8% (down 2.4ppts) of respondents said that now is a ‘bad time to buy’ major household items.

  • The inflation expectations fell marginally to 1.2% in April (down 0.1ppt).
ANZ’s Senior Economist Raymond Yeung said:

“This is the second consecutive month that Taiwan’s consumer confidence declined even though the stock market index has broken 2007 peak, suggesting that the wealth effect is not evenly shared by the community at large.

"We observe that the confidence in short term economic conditions fell by a significant margin. March trade data also seems to signal a potential down turn of external demand, and export orders were lacklustre during the month. Indeed, the near-term economic environment seems to face some headwinds, including a pause in the global supply chains due to weather distortions in the U.S., a softening Chinese manufacturing sector, and sluggish European market. Growth momentum may soften in Q2.

"Our view remains that the CBC will continue to regard the economic outlook with cautious optimism. Inflationary pressure continues to be low, providing time for the CBC to remain accommodative. We expect that the central bank will hold interest rates at the current level through 2015.”

ANZ-Roy Morgan Taiwan Consumer Confidence Rating - April 2015 - 100.2

ANZ-Roy Morgan Taiwan Consumer Confidence Rating - April 2015 - 100.2

Click to view the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Taiwanese Consumer Confidence Release PDF - April 2015.


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