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Cruise control: new car intention on level ground...for now

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia), January 2002 – March 2015, n=660,542 (average 3-monthly sample=13,445).

The number of potential new car buyers in Australia remained relatively stable in March, with the latest figures from Roy Morgan Research revealing that 2,353,000 people are planning to buy a new car in the next four years, marginally lower than last month and the same time last year.

Short-term intention has risen slightly. Motorists in the market for a new car in the next 12 months now number 605,000, up from 598,000 last month and almost identical to the same time last year.

New car buying intentions


Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia), January 2002 – March 2015, n=660,542 (average 3-monthly sample=13,445).

Jordan Pakes, Industry Director – Automotive, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“The short-term outlook for the new car market continues to improve with 605,000 motorists intending to buy a vehicle in the next 12 months. March saw 105,054 new vehicles sold in Australia according to VFACTS, an encouraging sign that last year’s slump in buying intention and sales are now in the past.

“Small SUVs and Light Commercial Vehicles have shown the biggest gains since February, with the Small SUV intention boom expected to continue given the recent launches of the highly anticipated Honda HR-V and Mazda CX-3.

“In terms of brand intention, March was notable for increased numbers of motorists with their sights set on Jeep (up 22,000 from February), Toyota (up 16,000) and Hyundai (up 11,000).

“Several factors will be at play in the next few months: low interest rates; the full impact of the Japanese Free Trade Agreement resulting in lower prices for cars imported from Japan; the falling Aussie dollar and increased concern about unemployment and the Australian economy. These may well impact on new car buying intention and sales – as may the next budget, which is upon us.

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Roy Morgan is the largest independent Australian research company, with offices throughout Australia, as well as in Indonesia, the United States and the United Kingdom. A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan has over 70 years’ experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate


25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%