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New Zealand real unemployment increases to 7.8% (up 0.6%) and under-employment up to 6.5% (up 0.2%) to start 2015

This Roy Morgan survey on New Zealand’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly interviews covering January – March 2015 and in total 3,006 New Zealanders aged 14 and over were interviewed.
In the March Quarter 2015 according to Roy Morgan:

New Zealand unemployment was 7.8% (up 0.6% since the December Quarter 2014). Of the 2,725,000 in the NZ workforce an estimated 213,000 (up 16,000) were unemployed and looking for work.

A further 6.5% (up 0.2%) of the workforce* were under-employed – these people are working part-time but looking for more work – 178,000 (up 7,000) New Zealanders.

In total 14.3% (up 0.8%) of the workforce 391,000 (up 23,000) New Zealanders were either unemployed or under-employed.

The latest Roy Morgan unemployment estimate of 7.8% is now 2.1% above the 5.7% currently quoted by Statistics New Zealand for the December Quarter 2014.

Compared to a year ago there are 82,000 more New Zealanders now employed, and unemployment is lower (7.8%) – now 0.2% less than the March Quarter 2014 (8.0%).

            Roy Morgan New Zealand Unemployed and ‘Under-employed’* Estimate

Unemployed or
‘Under-employed’*

Unemployed

Unemployed looking for

‘Under-employed’*

Full-time

Part-time

2011

‘000

%

‘000

%

‘000

‘000

‘000

%

Jan–Mar 2011

510

20.5

288

11.6

149

139

222

8.9

Apr-June 2011

418

17.1

237

9.7

116

121

181

7.4

July-Sep 2011

457

18.4

234

9.4

141

93

223

9.0

Oct-Dec 2011

493

19.0

245

9.4

118

127

248

9.9

2012

Jan–Mar 2012

515

20.3

286

11.1

125

161

229

9.2

Apr-June 2012

467

18.7

228

9.1

105

123

239

9.6

July-Sep 2012

449

17.7

223

8.8

124

99

226

8.9

Oct-Dec 2012

505

19.5

243

9.4

124

119

262

10.1

2013

Jan-Mar 2013

518

19.9

252

9.7

139

113

266

10.2

Apr-Jun 2013

478

18.4

228

8.8

122

106

250

9.6

Jul-Sep 2013

450

17.1

223

8.5

102

121

227

8.6

Oct-Dec 2013

519

19.8

223

8.5

104

119

296

11.3

2014

Jan-Mar 2014

484

18.3

212

8.0

105

107

272

10.3

Apr-Jun 2014

477

18.2

210

8.0

111

99

267

10.2

Jul-Sep 2014

467

17.4

190

7.1

111

79

277

10.3

Oct-Dec 2014

368

13.5

197

7.2

100

97

171

6.3

2015

Jan-Mar 2015

391

14.3

213

7.8

113

100

178

6.5


Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“The latest Roy Morgan New Zealand March Quarter 2015 employment figures show New Zealand unemployment increasing substantially to 7.8% (up 0.6%) with a further 6.5% (up 0.2%) under-employed. However, under-employment remains far lower than it was a year ago in the March Quarter 2014 (10.3%) while overall unemployment and under-employment is now 14.3% (up 0.8%), but down a significant 4% from the March Quarter 2014 (18.3%).

“However, despite the rise in New Zealand unemployment and under-employment, both measures remain significantly below the comparable figures across the Tasman in Australia. New Zealand unemployment (7.8%) is a large 3% below Australian unemployment in March 2015 (10.8%) while NZ under-employment (6.5%) is also clearly below Australian under-employment (7.7%). These comparisons show that while reducing unemployment is always a concern for any Government, John Key’s National-led Government is doing a relatively good job managing the NZ economy compared to their L-NP counterparts led by Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott in Canberra.”

This Roy Morgan survey on New Zealand’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly interviews covering January – March 2015 and in total 3,006 New Zealanders aged 14 and over were interviewed.


For further information:

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The Roy Morgan New Zealand Unemployment estimate is obtained by surveying a New Zealand-wide cross section by telephone. An unemployed person is classified as part of the labour force if they are looking for work, no matter when.

The results are not seasonally adjusted and provide an accurate measure of quarterly unemployment estimates in New Zealand. The Statistics New Zealand Unemployment estimates are obtained by mostly telephone interviews.

Households selected for the Statistics New Zealand Labour Survey are interviewed each quarter for up to two years (eight interviews), with one-eighth of the sample being replaced each quarter. The first interview is conducted face-to-face. Subsequent interviews are then conducted by telephone.

Statistics New Zealand classifies an unemployed person as part of the labour force only if, when surveyed, they had actively sought work in the past four weeks ending with the reference week and were available for work or had a new job to start within the next four weeks.

Statistics New Zealand Unemployment estimates are also seasonally adjusted. For these reasons the Statistics New Zealand Unemployment estimates are different from the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate.

There is a similar divergence caused in Australia’s ABS Unemployment estimates and the Roy Morgan Australian Unemployment estimates. Roy Morgan Executive Chairman Gary Morgan's concerns regarding the ABS Unemployment estimate are clearly outlined in his letter to the Australian Financial Review, which was not published. 

ROY MORGAN MEASURES REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRALIA
NOT THE ‘PERCEPTION’ OF UNEMPLOYMENT – JUNE 8, 2012.
http://www.roymorgan.com/~/media/Files/Papers/2012/20120603.pdf

Roy Morgan New Zealand Total Unemployment & Underemployment - March Quarter 2015

Roy Morgan New Zealand Total Unemployment & Under-employment v Statistics New Zealand - March Quarter 2015


Latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Unemployment & Under-employment Data Tables

You can also view our monitor of Monthly Unemployment Figures in Australia.


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size % Estimate
40%-60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.2 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.4
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2