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ANZ-Roy Morgan Taiwan Consumer Confidence Plunged in May
May 26 2015
- Finding No.
Consumer Confidence Press Release
The monthly ANZ-Roy Morgan Taiwan Consumer Confidence Index is based on 1,000 telephone interviews conducted throughout Taiwan. Men and women aged 14 and over were randomly selected during the month of May 2015.
ANZ’s Senior Economist Raymond Yeung said:
- ANZ-Roy Morgan Taiwan Consumer Confidence plummeted to 93.3 (down 6.9pts) in May. The falling consumer confidence this month was driven by declining confidence across all components of the survey.
- In terms of personal finances, just 6.7% (down 1.3ppts) of respondents said their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared with 30.2% (up 2.5ppts) that said their families are ‘worse off’.
- 13.1% (down 3.7ppts) of respondents expect their families will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, compared to 20.7% (up 2.9ppts), that expect their families will be ‘worse off’ financially.
- In addition, 28.3% (down 6.4ppts) of respondents expect Taiwan will have ‘good times’ economically over the next 12 months (the lowest level since May 2014), while 21.6% (up 3.5ppts) of respondents expect ‘bad times’ economically.
- 25.1% (down 4.0ppts) of respondents expect Taiwan will have ‘good times’ economically during the next five years (the lowest since April 2014) and 18% (up 4.0ppts) of respondents expect Taiwan will have ‘bad times’.
- 9.9% (down 4.1ppts) of respondents say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items in Taiwan, while 26% (up 2.2ppts) of respondents say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ major household items.
- The inflation expectations rose to 1.6% in May (up 0.4ppt).
“The plunge of ANZ-Roy Morgan Taiwan Consumer Confidence coincides the recent volatility of the stock market and the proposed capital gain tax on real estate transactions. The TAIEX index fell below the psychological threshold of 10,000 and quickly declined to about 9,600 in May. In addition, the Executive Yuan passed the capital gain tax of 35-45% on real estate transaction for properties held within two years, weighing on the property markets.
"However, we remain cautiously optimistic on Taiwan’s growth outlook despite the increasing downside risks facing the export sector. Some industries seem to have become less competitive because of currency strength and aggressiveness of Korean and Japanese competitors. Despite the downward revision of 2015 GDP growth, the central bank will unlikely increase interest rate this year even if the US Fed starts to hike.”
Click to view the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Taiwanese Consumer Confidence Release PDF - May 2015.
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