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ANZ-Roy Morgan Thailand Consumer Confidence Continues to Decline
June 24 2015
- Finding No.
Consumer Confidence Press Release
The monthly ANZ-Roy Morgan Thailand Consumer Confidence Index is based on 1,000 telephone interviews conducted throughout Thailand. Men and women aged 14 and over were randomly selected during the month of June 2015.
ANZ-Roy Morgan Thailand Consumer Confidence slipped by 0.4pts to 110.8 in June – the fifth straight month of declines. Consumer confidence is now just below its long-term average of 112.5 and lower than a year ago in June 2014 (116.4).
ANZ Chief Economist South Asia, ASEAN & Pacific, Glenn Maguire said:
- Driving this month’s fall in ANZ-Roy Morgan Thailand Consumer Confidence was a decline in the number of Thai respondents who say ‘now is a good time to buy’ major household items.
- In terms of personal finances, 28% (up 1ppt) of respondents said their families are ‘better off’ financially than at the same time last year, compared to 41% (up 3ppts) who said their families are ‘worse off’ financially than a year ago (the highest for this indicator since June 2014).
- The respondents who said they expect their families to be ‘better off’ financially in a year’s time was 48% (unchanged), compared to 14% (unchanged) who expect to be ‘worse off’ financially.
- Thinking of economic conditions in Thailand over the next 12 months, exactly half of the respondents, or 50% (up 2ppts) expect Thailand to have ‘good times’ financially compared to 27% (down 1ppt) who expect ‘bad times’ financially.
- A large majority (67%) of the respondents (unchanged) expect Thailand to have ‘good times’ during the next five years, and only 8% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’ for Thailand.
- Only 18% (down 2ppts) of respondents say ‘now is a good time to buy’ major household items (the lowest for this indicator since May 2014), compared to an increased majority of 67% (up 2ppts) of respondents who say ‘now is a bad time to buy’ major household items (the highest for this indicator since June 2014).
“Consumers continue to frown in the land of smiles.
"For some time we have flagged the risk that confidence will drift lower and that dynamic has clearly been realised. Within the granularity of the survey, we find the wariness of households to purchase a major household item the clearest indication of this. A remarkably low 18% (down 2ppts) of Thai households have a positive disposition to durable goods consumption at this time.
"We find it difficult to identify positive consumer sentiment enablers. Official downgrades to growth forecasts and disinflation are both likely to negatively impact sentiment and spending. Further, the reluctance of commercial banks to lower their lending rates just as aggressively as the consecutive policy rate cuts in March and April will also constrain domestic demand, but more importantly are likely to suppress sentiment.
"With a meaningful economic recovery unlikely to gain traction anytime soon, elevated real rates and a real effective exchange rate that is out of alignment with the sluggish economy, the economy, domestic demand, and consumer assessments of these circumstances are likely to remain persistently downbeat.
"Consumers starting to smile anytime soon would thus be a surprising development.”
Click to view the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Thailand Consumer Confidence Release PDF - June 2015.
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The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.
You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.